Perspectives on Global Development 2012 Social Cohesion in a Shifting World. OECD Development Centre

Transcription

1 Perspectives on Global Development 2012 Social Cohesion in a Shifting World OECD Development Centre

2 Perspectives on Global Development Trilogy through the lens of Shifting Wealth: 1. Shifting Wealth 2. Social Cohesion in a Shifting World 3. New Strategies for Growth Consultation process: Expert meeting co-organized with GIZ (April 2010) International Conference in Paris (January 2011) Regional consultations (Rabat, April 2011 and Bangkok, July 2011) Partners: FIAPP, GIZ, Haut Commissariat au Plan (Maroc), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Thailand) 2

3 A success story? A lower-middle income country Average 5% annual growth rate since % of budget dedicated to social sectors Nearly 100% primary enrollment in % health care coverage Prudent public debt management (42.8% of GDP in 2009) 3% fiscal deficit Inflation at approx. 3% in the 2000s 3

4 Tunisia 4 Source: OECD/AfDB/UNECA (2010), African Economic Outlook

5 Main messages 1. As economic uncertainty deepens, now is the time for developing countries to channel their recent prosperity into a more ambitious social cohesion agenda. 2. The demand for social cohesion in emerging economies has never been greater. 3. It s not only about what you do but also about how you do it. A social cohesion policy agenda calls for different priorities in policy making. 5

6 Outline 1 Shifting Wealth and social cohesion: an unprecedented opportunity? 2 Challenges for social cohesion in fast growing countries 3 What policies for social cohesion? 4 Looking forward 6

7 Outline 1 Shifting Wealth: an unprecedented opportunity? 2 Challenges for social cohesion in fast growing countries 3 What policies for social cohesion? 4 The how matters 7

8 The four-speed world in the 1990s 8 Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development Shifting Wealth

9 The four-speed world in the 2000s 9 Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2012 Social Cohesion in a Shifting World

10 Shifting Wealth: New resources for development Greater fiscal space in the 2000s vis-à-vis the 1990s Fiscal revenue to GDP ratio (%) 10 Source: Authors calculations based on World Bank (2011)

11 Outline 1 Shifting Wealth: an unprecedented opportunity? 2 Challenges for social cohesion in fast growing countries 3 What policies for social cohesion? 4 The how matters 11

12 Growth in life satisfaction and income do not necessarily coincide 12 Sources: Authors calculation based on Gallup World Poll (2010) and World Bank (2010)

13 The aspirations of the emerging middle class 13 Source: Author s calculation based on Kharas (2010)

14 14 Conceptual framework: The Social Cohesion Triangle

15 Outline 1 Shifting Wealth: an unprecedented opportunity? 2 Challenges for social cohesion in fast growing countries 3 What policies for social cohesion? 4 The how matters 15

16 What policies for social cohesion? Policies can make a difference Key areas: Fiscal, employment, social and educational policies Equality in opportunities, inclusive implementation and space for voice and civic participation Exploiting linkages between different policies is crucial 16

17 Policies can make a difference for inequality Gini coefficients before and after taxes and transfers in developing countries 17 Source: OCDE (2008a) for OECD countries excluding LAC, OECD (2008b) for Argentina, Brazil Colombia and Peru. Estimations based on household surveys for Chile and Mexico

18 With higher trust, tax evasion is less acceptable 18 Source: Authors' calculations based on World Value Surveys and Indices of Social Development.

19 which in turns leads to higher revenues 19 Source: Authors' calculations based on World Value Surveys, OECD.stat, OECD/ECLAC/CIAT

20 Fiscal policy through the social cohesion lens The virtuous cycle of fiscal legitimacy and social cohesion Ensuring equal opportunities through more and better redistribution Managing fiscal resources to create fiscal space Where to begin? Stronger, transparent and accountable tax administration More voice and accountability through decentralisation 20

21 Social and economic policy across the distribution in Brazil Growth incidence curve ( ) Real minimum wage (in end 1994 R$) Growth rate by income percentile Growth rate in mean 01-Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec-09 Source: PGD Source: IBGE and Central Bank of Brazil

22 Duality and the emerging middle class (Brazil) The missing middle in social protection coverage: informal middle class workers Share of the working population by income quintile and labour status (2006) 22 Source: da Costa et al. (2011).

23 Social protection through the social cohesion lens Social protection can do a lot for poverty reduction: Income support for the poor (e.g. CCT: Bolsa Familia, workfare programmes) Extending social services such as health to the poor A social cohesion agenda is a more ambitious social agenda Equality of opportunity (especially between groups) Avoid segmentation and dual systems Dealing with the `missing middle to foster social cohesion Unbundling Universality 23

24 Labour and social cohesion: Increase in labour disputes in China 800 Number of Labor Dispute Cases (thousand) Source: Cai and Wang (2011)

25 Labour markets: reforming labour institutions (China) Reponses: increase in minimum wages 300 Average minimum wage in Chinese cities (1999 = 100) Source: Authors calculations based on Du and Pan (2009) and CASS but also reform of the labour law and wider use of collective bargaining 25

26 Outline 1 Shifting Wealth: an unprecedented opportunity? 2 Challenges for social cohesion in fast growing countries 3 What policies for social cohesion? 4 The how matters 26

27 The how also matters Stop treating social cohesion as a by-product Long term view is needed Mobilizing domestic resources through establishing a state-citizen contract Make the policy making process more inclusive 27

28 Innovation in inclusive policy making: Thailand National Health Assembly: modelled on WHO World Health Assembly Multi-stakeholder consultation 1500 participants from 178 constituencies in 2008 Open proposal mechanism National and local issues Impact and outcomes NHA resolutions have become regulatory texts (e.g. Health Charters) Strong constituency: at NHA urging, 10% increase in Universal Coverage budget as public spending was cut by 13% Used as model for response to social and political crisis: A National Reform Committee made up of eminent Thai figures provide guidance for reform A National Reform Assembly (NRA) open up a political space for citizens to participate actively in crafting the country s reforms. 28

29 Summary 1. Shifting wealth: Opportunities and risks Social cohesion as a means and an end More resources and unprecedented possibilities New opportunities not equally shared rising aspirations of middle classes 2. How to make social cohesion a part of national development strategies? Leadership and commitment from senior government More focus on the how of policy-making processes Idea: Developing Social Cohesion Policy Reviews 29

30 Thank you OECD Development Centre More information: webnet.oecd.org/pgdexplorer

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32 Resources for development in Africa Tax revenue per capita ODA per capita USD Burundi Guinea-Bissau Congo Dem. Rep. Sierra Leone Ethiopia Niger Central Afr. Rep. Malawi* Liberia Madagascar Rwanda Mozambique Uganda Guinea Tanzania Burkina Faso Togo Gambia Mali Comoros** Ghana** Benin AFRICAN MEDIAN São Tomé & Principe Côte d'ivoire Mauritania Kenya Cameroon Senegal Zambia Djibouti Chad Sudan Lesotho Egypt Nigeria AFRICAN AVERAGE Morocco Cape Verde Tunisia Swaziland Namibia Mauritius Congo South Africa Botswana Angola Algeria Gabon Seychelles Equatorial Guinea Libya 0 32 Source: OECD/AfDB/UNECA (2010), African Economic Outlook