Background Note on Prospects for IDA to Become Financially Self-Sustaining

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Background Note on Prospects for IDA to Become Financially Self-Sustaining International Development Association December 1995

2 Prospects for IDA to Become Financially Self-Sustaining Given its long maturities and zero-interest terms, IDA was not designed as a revolving fund and did not have financial self-sufficiency as one of its original goals. However, the cumulative effect of past commitments, together with certain assumptions on the graduation prospects for its relatively better-off borrowers, means that a sustainability horizon can be glimpsed. Two graduation and lending scenarios are considered below. Under one of them, 2012 would be the last year for which IDA would require donor contributions and under the other donor contributions would still be needed until From then on, reflows (amortization of the outstanding portfolio-which could then amount to about $150 billion) would provide adequate funding for the remaining borrowers to receive credits from IDA roughly at the same rate in real terms, as they do today. This early sustainability horizon assumes that the blend countries' creditworthiness is such that they can be phased-out from IDA borrowing-starting this gradual process in the year Resources. Non-donor resources are estimated on the basis of possible advance commitment authority from the repayment of outstanding IDA credits (reflows). Commitment authority is deemed usable in advance of actual amortization payments because of the multi-year disbursement pattern of IDA credits. At present annual advance commitment authority is more than double the actual level ofida repayments; this is possible because of the very rapid pace at which scheduled repayments increase over the next decade. Since reflows will continue to increase for about 30 more years, sustainability would be achieved the first year that advance commitment authority exceeds projected IDA lending and could probably be maintained thereafter. Commitment authority from reflows is projected to grow very rapidly, reflecting the cumulative impact of35 years oflending at years maturity. From the IDAlO annual level of SDR 0.8 billion, advance commitment authority from reflows is projected to increase to about SDR 2 billion by 2005 and to over SDR 3 billion by 2009Y Graduation scenarios. Two graduation scenarios have been examined: (1) All countries graduate as their income reaches the operational guideline level (China, however, is assumed to graduate from IDA during the IDAll period-by the year 2000-on creditworthiness grounds). Each country's date of graduation, hence, depends on its current GNP level and on future growth. The basic assumption adopted for this analysis is that all countries 11 This assumes full repayment by all borrowers, except for those currently in non-accrual status.

3 - 2- grow at two percent in real, per capita annual GDP terms? At that rate 20 countries, which account for just under one-quarter of current lending to all countries (excluding China) graduate by the year If graduation depended solely on a country's GNP per capita, Azerbaijan, Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Zimbabwe would be blend countries (still IDAeligible) in Some of these countries, however, could graduate earlier on creditworthiness grounds, so this scenario may overstate lending to blend countries. (2) Current blend countries graduate by Blend countries are assumed to graduate when their GNP per capita reaches the operational threshold or by the start ofida17-whatever comes first. This scenario assumes gradually enhanced creditworthiness, so that access to IDA credits by blend countries can be increasingly restricted. Since all blend countries may not become more creditworthy, this scenario may underestimate lending to blend countries. Lending Scenarios. The basis for lending level (demand) scenarios are the IDAll projections which total SDR 15.3 billion for FY The 63 IDA-only countries account for 69 percent of this projected lending and 15 blend countries account for the rest. In both scenarios IDA-only countries are assumed to borrow at constant real levels 11 (until they graduate on GNP per capita grounds), roughly in line with the IDA11 projections. Since IDA funding could be partly replaced by IBRD funding in those countries for which creditworthiness improves enough, this assumption may overstate IDA lending to those countries. (A) Blend countries keep borrowing from IDA at the projected IDA11 nominal level until their graduation. (B) Lending to blend countries is phased-out in a straight line from the IDA11 projected levels down to zero by the year 2015 (i.e., the last period of their borrowing from IDA would be IDA16). Sustainability Horizons. Two basic scenarios have been analyzed. One (growth-determined) combines options (1) and (A), while the other (assuming creditworthiness) combines options (2) and (B). } Out of 164 countries with data in the WB Atlas, 29% had per capita growth rates of two percent or more for One-third of the countries had growth rates between zero and two percent, and 38 percent had negative rates. In terms of population the breakdown is quite different, as the countries with growth rates of 2 percent or more account for twothirds of the population of the 164 countries. J/ Annual average SDR inflation is projected at 2.5%, in line with World Bank long-term economic outlook projections.

4 - 3- In scenario la (with GNP per capita as the sole graduation criteria) sustainability is achieved only in the year Demand for IDA funds (lending) grows in nominal terms until it reaches an annual level of SDR 7 billion and continues to increase for several more years (in real terms, total lending would be declining throughout). Required donor contributions remain above SDR 3 billion per year, in nominal terms, until2005 (end ofida13), when they start declining rapidly. The last donor Replenishment (a relatively small one) in this growth-based scenario would be IDA 18 ( ). In scenario 2B (with blend countries assumed to become increasingly creditworthy so they can be phased-out of IDA borrowing over 15 years) sustainability is achiewd in Overall demand for IDA funds (lending) stays roughly constant in nominal terms at around SDR 5 billion per year until 2018, when it shows an increase for a few years-reflecting the offsetting effects of the pace of graduation, and of maintaining lending constant in real terms to IDA-only countries. Required donor contributions, however, decline steadily from an IDA12 level of SDR 10 billion to just SDR 1 billion for 2012, so IDA15 could be the last replenishment needed. Under either ofthe two scenarios, the SDR 12.5 billion pledged for IDA10 would represent a clear peak in the level of donor contributions. In addition, scenario 2B could result in non-donor resources slightly exceeding lending requirements for a number of years after This possibility, and-more significantly-transfers from IBRD net income, could form the basis for an even earlier sustainability horizon (as early as 2010 under scenario 2B), or for increased lending. In summary, it is critical for IDA to continue receiving donor support at an annual level of about SDR 3 billion for about six more years (compared to over SDR 4 billion per year pledged under IDAl 0). After that there would be a period of about ten years during which the need for donor resources would decline gradually in nominal terms (the pace depending on graduation decisions )-this decline would be very pronounced in real terms. Thereafter, IDA could become self-sustaining.

5 IDA11 ( ) IDA 12 ( ) IDA SUSTAINABILITY HORIZON 1A (All Countries Graduate at GNP Threshold) Lending (SDR b.) IDA13 ( ) IDA14 ( ) IDA15 ( ) IDA16 ( ) IDA17 ( ) IDA18 ( ) IDA19 ( )

6 IDA11 ( ) IDA 12 ( ) IDA SUSTAINABILITY HORIZON 28 (Blends Graduate by 2015) Lending (SDR b.) IDA 13 ( ) IDA14 ( ) IDA15 ( ) IDA16 ( ) IDA17 ( ) IDA18 ( ) IDA19 ( )

7 Country Graduation Horizons * (Based on GNP Threshold) Country Blends FYR Macedonia Egypt Armenia Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan Zimbabwe Pakistan Georgia India Nigeria IDA Only Maldives Cape Verde Djibouti Bolivia Lesotho Cameroon Angola Congo Sri Lanka Senegal Honduras Guyana Comoros Cote d'ivoire Guinea Mauritania Eq. Guinea Ghana Bhutan Sudan Benin C.A.R. Albania Gambia Tajikistan Zambia Mongolia Nicaragua Laos Togo Burkina Faso Yemen Myanmar Kenya Mali Sao Tome& Pr. Guinea-Bissau Bangladesh Madagascar Niger Zaire Afghanistan Cambodia Haiti Liberia Nepal Uganda Chad Vietnam Burundi Eritera Sierra Leone Somalia Malawi Ethiopia Tanzania Rwanda Mozambique Fiscal Year Last Fiscal Year of IDA eligibility.