Turistika - Tourism scenario s

Transcription

1 Turistika - Tourism scenario s Amsterdam/Willemstad oct

2 Workshop objectives Getting people to know Turistika Present & discuss analyses of recent tourism trends Present & discuss policy-relevant scenario s Gather input from participants: what can Turistika do for you? 2

3 What is Turistika? Econometric model for estimating tourism effects NOT: predicting future inflow! # arrivals still exogenous Based on expenditure surveys Tourist groups differ in demand patterns Calculating effects on local sectors & labour market Marketing strategies Policy measures Capacity restraints & development plans 3

4 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 4

5 Baseline - arrivals CTB & MEO Moderate inflation (2%) Moderate labour productivity growth (1%) Arrivals based on realizations 1 st half : US/Canada growth continues, at lower % German market growth (+10%) Caribbean & S.A. +5-7% From 2015 all markets +2% NL market nearly saturated (+1%) Cruise +2% y-o-y 5

6 Baseline - capacity Based on CTB Hotel Room Development, but updated and conservative no new hotel rooms besides Palapa Canadian airlift increases NL/European airlift same or higher airport capacity remains 1,6M 6

7 Baseline assumptions (%) CTB & MEO Economic variables Inflation (yearly growth; %) 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Labour productivity (yearly growth; %) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Inflow STAYOVER USA & Canada 29% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Netherlands 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Europe (excl. NL) 4% 10% 10% 10% 2% 2% 2% 2% Aruba 7% 7% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Caribean 7% 7% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Venezuela 35% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% South America (excl. VZ) 29% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Inflow CRUISE VS 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% other 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Capacity Hotels-1 5% Hotels-2 3% 4% 10% Bungalowresorts 12% 10% Apartments 18% Restaurants 5% 5% Car rental 5% 5% 7

8 Baseline assumptions (pax) CTB & MEO 8

9 show graphs live 9

10 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 10

11 Point of departure CTB & MEO Airline capacity is exogenous and not modelled no analysis of airline politics, implicit assumption: flexible to demand expectations incorporated in projections on #stayover tourists Airport is less flexible, capacity is restricted rush hours: distribution of passengers is not evenly distributed NOTE: Next sheets about arrivals (not departures) on commercial passenger flights 11

12 Who are arriving at Hato airport? 12

13 Airports of origin of arrival pax CTB & MEO 13

14 Rush hours (congestion) 14

15 Seasonal pattern CTB & MEO 15

16 Larger crowds in the weekend CTB & MEO 16

17 Not all flights are alike CTB & MEO Average aircraft capacity per market of origin 17

18 Hato even busier in afternoon CTB & MEO 18

19 Airport module in Turistika v4.0 19

20 Work in progress (discussion) CTB & MEO Possibilities to smooth air traffic during the day? How to deal with rush hours and season patterns? little trick 20

21 Hato on a Sunday (18% more crowds) 21

22 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz towards a Masterplan 2018? Future of Turistika... 22

23 Tourist arrival in Curaçao CTB & MEO USA&Canada Netherlands Rest Venezuela Bron: CTB 23

24 Stayover nights in Curaçao CTB & MEO USA & Canada Netherlands Venezuela rest Bron: CTB 24

25 Dip in nights, recovery in 2010? CTB & MEO 14 nights/pax ,2 8,7 8,1 8,4 8,6 8,8 8,3 8,5 8,5 7,3 7,

26 No recovery for NL average CTB & MEO 14 nights/pax 12 12,5 12,5 12,7 12,8 12,7 12, ,4 11,2 5,6 5,5 4,8 4,9 4,6 3,9 3,3 3, Netherlands Venezuela 26

27 VZ wave 2008 lower average CTB & MEO 27

28 Summarizing: Average length of stay lower in temporary composition effect, as a consequence of high % VZ tourists in 2010 back at 2007 level BUT: length of stay has fallen for US and NL # nights grows less than # pax effect crisis, or more permanently? new tourists = shorter holidays? or more repeaters => shorter holidays? Check: more Dutch repeaters since

29 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 30

30 Pessimistic scenario Downgrade in airport category no new flights in 2012 (Air Canada, Air Berlin) small decline in US market 2012 (Insel Air) Euro crisis decline in NL & EU markets Other markets no growth in 2012 recovery in

31 Pessimistic scenario (%) CTB & MEO Inflow STAYOVER USA & Canada 32.8% 29% -2% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Netherlands 10.4% 2% -2% -2% -2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Europe (excl. NL) 6.1% 4% -2% -2% -2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Aruba 12.6% 7% 0% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Caribean 2.6% 7% 0% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Venezuela -58.0% 35% 0% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% South America (excl. VZ) 20.9% 29% 0% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other -3.3% 5% 0% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Inflow CRUISE USA -9.5% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% other -9.5% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 32

32 Pessimistic scenario (pax) CTB & MEO 33

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34 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 35

35 Optimistic scenario No downgrade in airport category Extra promotion causes shift in levels Latin market much higher than baseline Brazil, Colombia Canada & US higher than baseline Germany/Belgium higher than baseline 36

36 Optimistic scenario (%) CTB & MEO Inflow STAYOVER USA & Canada 32.8% 29% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Netherlands 10.4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Europe (excl. NL) 6.1% 4% 10% 10% 10% 2% 2% 2% 2% Aruba 12.6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Caribean 2.6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% Venezuela -58.0% 35% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% South America (excl. VZ) 20.9% 29% 10% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other -3.3% 5% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% Inflow CRUISE USA -9.5% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% other -9.5% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% ADHOC inflow stayover USA & Canada 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Netherlands Europe (excl. NL) 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Aruba Caribean Venezuela South America (excl. VZ) 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Other 37

37 Optimistic scenario (pax) CTB & MEO 38

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39 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 40

40 Curaçao Jazz scenario CTB & MEO September is a weak month, create additional inflow translate extra visitors to Turistika input 10,000 tickets of which 6,000 for visitors of which 2,000 would have come otherwise so max. 4,000 extra visitors for capacity we have a problem: Turistika is not (yet) on monthly basis Q: how to calculate capacity restraints for 1 month? A: multiply by (12/seasonal factor), disregard other months 41

41 Curaçao Jazz assumptions 4,000 extra tourists (on top of normal inflow) Length of stay similar to baseline Airline capacity flexible (charters) Extra model input: ADHOC inflow stayover USA & Canada Netherlands Europe (excl. NL) Aruba 1,000 1,000 Caribean Venezuela South America (excl. VZ) 1,000 1,000 Other ADHOC inflow cruise USA other 42

42 Curacao Jazz - outcomes CTB & MEO 43

43 Curacao Jazz capacity caluclation input on yearly basis 12 * extra tourists / seasonal factor model will translate into 4,000 in september only look at capacity outcomes for september ADHOC inflow stayover input seasonfactor sept. USA & Canada 4,412 4, Netherlands 3,401 3, Europe (excl. NL) Aruba 13,559 13, Caribean 10,239 10, Venezuela 7,765 7, South America (excl. VZ) 10,490 10, Other 44

44 Curacao Jazz capacity outcome september Hotels-1 74% 71% 74% 77% 74% 77% 79% 81% 82% 83% Hotels-2 65% 57% 77% 79% 65% 69% 71% 72% 73% 74% Bungalowresorts 74% 71% 60% 56% 55% 57% 58% 58% 59% 60% Appartments 66% 69% 71% 74% 70% 73% 74% 75% 77% 78% Restaurants 60% 57% 68% 67% 63% 66% 68% 69% 70% 71% Car rental 77% 74% 86% 85% 82% 86% 87% 88% 90% 91% Taxi 65% 57% 76% 80% 74% 78% 80% 82% 83% 85% Bus & other transp. 48% 45% 52% 54% 53% 54% 55% 57% 58% 59% Airport occupancy 68% 60% 78% 82% 76% 79% 81% 82% 84% 85% 45

45 Turistika Baseline projection how does it work? Air transport to CUR Nights vs pax; VZ wave & Dutch Dip Scenariostudy: Pessimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Optimistic scenario Scenariostudy: Curacao Jazz Future of Turistika... 46

46 Turistika future? Transform Turistika core to monthly values allow monthly input (CNSJ festival in sept) allow monthly capacity (Hyatt in jan or dec?) Improve calculation of capacity use use real values if available from sectors based on nights (average # tourists on the island on one day) instead of expenditure allow more dynamic reaction in supply (cars etc.) Allow input in nights? (instead of pax) seasonal patterns also based on # nights? only airport module based on pax 47