Swimming Against the Tide: 35 Years of Innovation in Affordable Housing. Carolina Reid, Assistant Professor, City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley

Transcription

1 Swimming Against the Tide: 35 Years of Innovation in Affordable Housing Carolina Reid, Assistant Professor, City and Regional Planning, UC Berkeley

2 Recent Housing Crisis 200 Shiller Index of US Historical House Prices (1890=100) Source: Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance [Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005], updated data available online at

3 Rising Income Inequality Percent Share of Income Growth Received Top 10% Bottom 90% Source: Pavlina R. Tcherneva, based on data from Thomas Picketty and Emmanuel Saez, NBER. Cited at mericans.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0

4 Loss of Middle Class and Diversity San Francisco 1980 Black/African American 30 Percent of Households in Each Income Bracket White 0 Less than $15,000 $15,000 to $25,000 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $74,999 $75,000 - $124,999 More than $125,000 Note: Calculated from 1980 Decennial Census and ACS year sample. Dollars adjusted for inflation. Numbers and racial categories not directly aligned over time, so these should be taken as estimates of the distribution of households as opposed to exact proportions.

5 Loss of Middle Class and Diversity San Francisco 2012 Black/African American 30 Percent of Households in Each Income Bracket White 0 Less than $15,000 $15,000 to $25,000 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $74,999 $75,000 - $124,999 More than $125,000 Note: Calculated from 1980 Decennial Census and ACS year sample. Dollars adjusted for inflation. Numbers and racial categories not directly aligned over time, so these should be taken as estimates of the distribution of households as opposed to exact proportions.

6 Labor Market Restructuring $70,000 Median Annual Incomes of the Top Four Occupations in California, 2012 $60,000 California Median Income Income Needed to Afford 2 Bedroom Unit in California $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Poverty Limit, 4-person Household $20,000 $10,000 $- Food Preparation and Servers Transportation Office and Administrative Support Sales and Related Occupations Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2012 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, California. Available online at:

7 Surge in Rental Households 1.2 Average Annual Growth in Renter Households (Millions) s 70s 80s 90s 2000s Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America s Rental Housing, 2013, tabulations of US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and Housing Vacancy Surveys.

8 Loss of Affordable Units Units with Expiring Affordability Periods (Thousands) More than 2 million in 10 years Project-Based Rental Assistance LIHTC Other Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, The State of the Nation s Housing, 2014.

9 Declining Federal Funding Percent change in annual funding, 2001 to 2014, adjusted for inflation HOME CDBG Native American Housing Public Housing Section 521 Section 8 Source: Center for Budget Policies and Priorities,

10 Actually, That s Nothing New $140,000 HUD Allocations by Year $120,000 In billions (2014$) $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $ * 2006* Source: Author s calculations of historical OMB data, data culled from housing reports and 2006 are estimates.

11 Innovations in Finance Have Helped to Buffer The Impacts of These Cuts Number of Units Funded 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 LIHTC Unit Production in California Source: Author s calculations of data released by California s Tax Credit Allocation Committee. More recent years include units under construction.

12 Governor Brown: Affordable housing is a piece of the larger problem of the increased stratification of society. California has more important priorities than affordable housing, like education and climate change. UC Berkeley Fisher Center Forum February 12, 2013

13 I respectfully disagree The problem of affordable housing is reflective of broader trends of social stratification, and in many ways, is shaped more by broader economic trends than by what we build. But, the provision of affordable housing is not only a fundamental public good, it is also fundamentally related to our goals of a more just and sustainable society.

14 Education Housing instability and involuntary moves Reduces educational achievement (by one year between students who changed schools four or more times in six years) Increases likelihood of expulsion or suspension and performing below or near the bottom of the class By fifth grade, the curricular pace at schools with highly mobile populations is so different from more stable schools that the math curriculum is typically one grade below grade level Expanding access to fair housing Increased the number of hours children studied Children experienced greater parental involvement in their education

15 Health Lack of affordable housing limits effectiveness of health care reform efforts Results from programs like CA s Assisted Living Waiver and California Community Transitions locally show that the lack of available affordable housing is the #1 barrier that prevents people from moving out of costly institutions and into the community Positive return on investment A CSH study in LA showed that every $1 spent on supportive housing saved the county $6 after the first year Moving 51 chronically homeless seniors out of skilled nursing facilities into housing saved $1.46 million in Medicaid and Medicare spending in one year

16 The Prison System Source: Natasha Slesnick, Treatment for Homeless Youth Pays off in the Long Run, study reported online,

17 Climate Change 65 percent of working poor in San Francisco MSA drive to work, commuting 60 miles per week Housing + transportation cost burdens undermine financial stability of working poor Potential for affordability and sustainability Equitable transit oriented development Pre-1980 construction is responsible for approximately 70% of building GHG emissions Green building materials, techniques, and appliances reduce energy consumption by 33 percent and water use by 20 percent or more. This equates to significant savings in utility costs.

18 Sustainable Design MidPen Housing s Station Center in Union City LEED Platinum Certification TOD: Union City BART station

19 Conclusion

20 Reports Cited Mary Cunningham and Graham MacDonald (2012). Housing as a Platform for Improving Education Outcomes among Low-Income Children, The Urban Institute: Washington, D.C. Elizabeth Roberto (2008). Commuting to Opportunity: The Working Poor and Commuting in the United States, Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program: Washington, D.C. Joshua D. Bamberger and Sarah Dobbins (2014). Long-term Cost Effectiveness of Placing Homeless Seniors in Permanent Supportive Housing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA.