Embargoed until 30 November :45am CT

Transcription

1 Contact: Jack L Bishop Jr PhD Kingsbury International, Ltd. 245 Ridge Road Highland Park, IL 635 Phone Fax napmc@kingbiz.com Press Release Embargoed until 3 November 8:45am CT The ISM-Chicago Business Survey and the CHICAGO Report are copyrighted by Kingsbury International, Ltd. and the Institute for Supply Management Chicago, Inc. Any publication or rebroadcast of the contents of the CHICAGO Report prior to public release of the CHICAGO Report at 8:45 o clock am Central Time 3 November is strictly forbidden and will be treated as an intentional copyright infringement. Survey conducted by the Business Survey Committee ISM - Chicago and Kingsbury International Ltd Institute for Supply Management Chicago, Inc. and Kingsbury International Ltd.

2 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: 3 November 8:45am CT the CHICAGO Report Institute for Supply Management Chicago November CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER EXPANDED The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER expanded for the second consecutive month: BUSINESS ACTIVITY: PRICES PAID firmed; PRODUCTION expansion slowed while NEW ORDERS continued to expand; EMPLOYMENT rate of contraction slowed; BUYING POLICY: M.R.O. Supplies lead-time dropped sharply. 1 ISM Chicago, Inc. and Kingsbury International, Ltd. The CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER is a trademark of ISM Chicago, Inc Notes : Recessions are indicated by gray bars. Readings in red (below) indicate values worse than the prior month Business Barometer Index Seasonally Adjusted Production Higher Same Lower Index Seasonally Adjusted Expansion slowed New Orders More Same Fewer Index Seasonally Adjusted Remained strong Order Backlogs Larger Same Smaller Index Seasonally Adjusted Rate of decline cut in half Next Release: 3 December 8:45am CT NOTICE: No warranty, express or implied, is attached to these figures or their use. While the figures are compiled with professional care, no representations about appropriateness, accuracy, or suitability for specific applications are made.

3 Inventories Larger Same Smaller Index Seasonally Adjusted More firms reported shrinkage for the 13th month Employment More Same Fewer Index Seasonally Adjusted Completed 2 nd year of declining employment Supplier Deliveries Faster Same Slower Index Seasonally Adjusted Broadest increase since July 28 Prices Paid Higher Same Lower Index Seasonally Adjusted Hovered around neutral BUYING POLICY: Production Materiels Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov less than 11 days days days days more than 6 days Average Days Seasonally Adjusted Lowest reading in a decade M.R.O. Supplies Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov -1 day days days days more than 1 days Average Days Seasonally Adjusted Fastest since August 22 Capital Equipment Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 15 days days days days More than 9 days Average Days Seasonally Adjusted Increased For more information, contact How far in advance must you buy, to have when needed? phone: (847) Kingsbury International, Ltd. fax: (847) napmc@kingbiz.com

4 FROM THE SOURCE an occasional feature General Comments from Members of the Survey Panel Each month, the survey panelists have the opportunity to add comments to clarify the reported activity of their organization. As appropriate, the report includes comments selected for their insight. No attempt is made to ensure that the nature of the comments represents the survey panel as a whole. 1. Our current projections remain flat for [balance] of and through 1st qtr If Obamacare and Cap and Trade pass it will be the one-two punch that will prolong the recession for ten years. 3. Although we got 3 nice orders in the last month they were the first in 7weeks. We are hoping for a couple more before the holidays. 4. The current economic conditions, including an increasing national debt, have weakened the dollar. The weak dollar is putting pressure on fuel costs which may have a significant impact on our costs. 5. Not a large influx of new patients, flat in revenue. 6. Given the economy and the uncertainly, we are proceeding forward very conservatively 7. Many suppliers are still struggling to get by. Things would be better if Obama would do something to increase employment. 8. We can not keep up with demand, lead time for capex [Capital Expenditures] is up big time in Semicon [Semiconductors]. 9. Watch out for inflation in the coming years. 1. We lag the economy so business is still on a downward trend. Stimulus funding may help in mid- to late 21

5 SPECIAL QUESTION an occasional feature Added Perspective from Members of the Survey Panel Occasionally, the survey panelists are polled either to characterize the survey or to elicit the panelists perspective on a topical issue. The November Special Question attempted to put the survey results into the context of organization plans for 21. SPECIAL QUESTIONs: What is your company's assumption / forecast for the Real Growth/Contraction (GDP%) in 21? What is your company's assumption / forecast for the Inflation Rate (CPI%) in 21? 6% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% % < -.1% % % % % % > 1.% 1% % < -.1% % % % % % > 1.% The forecast of real growth is muted compared to first post recession years (e.g. 5.4% and 4.5% ). However the temperate growth rate would seem to allow room for a stronger upside surprise without running much of a risk of significant disappointment. Like the cop at the traffic accident keep moving, nothing to see here. The forecasts of inflation for the first postrecession year similarly are in line with past experience. While consistency with past experience does not ensure that reality will thus emulate the forecasts, such consistency does give comfort to the extent that the impact of significant disappointments, either more or less inflation, should not pose a constraint to economic recovery.