JANUARY 24, 2018 ALUMINIUM

Transcription

1 ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif Japan P1020A cif Shanghai P1020A in-whs Shanghai P1020A cif Same as bonded Shanghai. Shanghai P1020A cif Taiwan P1020A cif Singapore P1020A fob Republic of Korea P1020A cif Republic of Korea P1020A fca Malaysia P1020A fob Republic of Korea P1020A cif South East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP See Antwerp duty-paid. Italy P1020A fca DP Spain P1020A fca DP JANUARY 24, 2018 Spot cif main Japanese port (MJP) premium rises in quiet market, with deals heard at $100/t. Indications as high as $115/t but no deals reported at that level. Bullish tone fueled by higher US Midwest premium and threat of import duties in the US. Some destocking activity expected in Q1 as the financial year in Japan ends for most companies on March 31. Q1 MJP premium settled on Dec 14 at $103/t, up 9% from Q4 premium of $94-95/t, with more than 35kt of trades reported to Metal Bulletin at that level. Premium flat amid weak demand and closed import window. Import loss at $493/t on Jan 22. Chinese electrolytic aluminium production totaled million tonnes in 2017, up 1.6% from the prior year. SHFE aluminium stocks rose 9,818t - or 1.3% - vs last week to 783,759t on Jan 19. Market participants eyeing impact on supply of new aluminium projects this year. Offers heard on in-warehouse basis but deals lacking on both in-warehouse and cif basis. Premium unchanged amid lack of spot trading. One offer heard on in-warehouse basis but no deals done. Premium unchanged as spot trading activity stayed slow at beginning of year. Offers, deals heard at $105/t in Busan. Lower end seen as achievable for non-duty-free material, higher end seen as achievable for delivery to Incheon. Some concerns in market about Chinese coils being sold in Asia as substitutes for ingots. Trading still lackluster on fob basis. Offers heard on fca basis but most not accepted by buyers. Some deals reportedly done on fca basis at $90-95/t but demand still seen as slow and supply ample within Malaysia. Premium in slightly wider range, cif spot trading remains slow on sufficient stocks in Korea. See fca Korea comments. No business concluded at $5/t anymore as majority of market sees $10/t as low end of range. One offer up to $25/t for good western brands. Live LME stocks fell just 850t this week with little change in Asian locations. C/3M back in contango at $4/t while Feb/March is at $4/t backwardation. Premiums move higher to track Rotterdam range this week. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam on top end due to higher costs. Premiums move higher to reflect Rotterdam duty-paid premiums. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below top end of Rotterdam range due to higher costs. Participants see increasing premium in the US supporting higher numbers in Italy. Business at $200/t now possible and buying below $190/t difficult. Salerno premium at higher end while Trieste and Genoa at lower end or middle of range. Market still relatively quiet, expected to pick up in February. Participants bullish about market in Spain. Interest in region has picked up this session but confirmed business still limited. Tight supply and increased logistics costs are supporting prices in the region. Market is more focused on doing business for higher-purity material. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT

2 ALUMINUM (cont'd) Turkey P1020A cif DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Market sentiment stays bullish, making business below $120/t difficult to achieve. Most contracts for Q1 now completed, participants starting to discuss Q2 contracts. Purchasing below $100/t has become more difficult but not impossible to achieve, while numerous trades at $ /t have been reported in recent sessions. Traders said to be short covering and looking for material to ship to the US. Market not too worried about tight LME spreads and focused on potential US aluminium import duties instead. LME C/3M spread back in $4/t contango but Feb/Mar backwardation widens to $4/t, a level which makes stock-holding unprofitable. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP United States P1020A Warrants in-whs Market widens upward with duty-paid market active this week. Some tenders reportedly on lower end of range but business at $170/t now possible. One isolated deal above $170/t reported to Metal Bulletin. Market focused on US premium ahead of potential aluminium import tariffs instead of tight LME spreads. Business reported around the upper end of the spot range, majority of deals done on floating basis using the MB index. LME stocks at million tonnes, down 15,175t - or 1% - in January, including a drop of 2,225t on Jan 22. In 2017, stocks fell million tonnes - or 50% - after falling 687,000t - or 24% - in Midwest United States P1020A DLVD DUP cents/lb cents/lb Transactions were reported at a wide range this week, with one supplier reporting a deal at only slightly above 10 cents per lb and multiple sellers reporting sales into the Midwest at 11.5 cents per lb. A confluence of factors principally, rising trucking rates and decreasing scrap availability - driving the premium up. Uncertainty regarding the Section 232 report, as well as reported issues with one major supplier, are also contributing to the premium's rise. Brazil P1020A DLVD Domestic premium kept in check by weak spot demand. Several industry sources expect premium to move up due to higher US Midwest premium. Brazil P1020A cif COPPER Shanghai grade A in-whs Shanghai grade A ER in-whs Same as above. Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A ER cif Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif Same as above. Shanghai grade A cif Premium unchanged despite pressure coming from higher US Midwest premium. Weak spot demand in Brazil hinders premium increase. Very few trades heard on warrant side this week though Shanghai- London arbitrage improving. Few good brands available in-warehouse recently, while SX-EW cathode stock lacks buying interest. Few rush sales reported since LME C/3M spread contango remains favorable to stock holding. Rare offers heard for ER cathodes due to reportedly limited stocks left for popular brands in bonded zone. Meanwhile, sellers lack interest to sell due to low premiums and comfortable contango on futures market. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghai-bonded copper stocks at kt as of Jan 15, up slightly from the start of the month. Buying interest for SX-EW material lacking. Interest in cif cargoes lacking as Lunar New Year approaches. Some sellers rushing to find buyers for a few cargoes to avoid paying extra costs and having to transfer these cargoes to bonded warehouses. China imported 4.69 million tonnes of unwrought copper and copperfabricated products in 2017, down 5.2% from the prior year. China s monthly refined copper output reached an all-time high of 865,000t last December, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Jan 22. This brought full-year production for 2017 to 8.89 million tonnes, representing an increase of 7.7% from 8.44 million tonnes in 2016, NBS data showed. Shanghai grade A in-whs Interest for SX-EW cathodes is low and expected to go lower. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2

3 COPPER (cont'd) Republic of Korea grade A cif South East Asia grade A cif Japan grade A cif Taiwan grade A cif Buying interest from South Korea is mostly for off-grade cathode as liquidity for Grade A remains low. Codelco offered $70/t premium cif Korea, Taiwan and Japan for Deals heard in the region are mainly in the range of $70-75/t. There is talk of lower copper cathode output and delays/diversions of shipments of copper concentrates amid disruptions at Pasar smelter and refinery in the Philippines and Birla Copper s Dahej smelter in India. Codelco offered $75/t cif Southeast Asia for 2018, up from $72/t in Premium still lacks spot liquidity due to high reliance on contractual deals. Codelco offers FY 2018 annual premium at $70/t, up $2 from Taiwan market slow before Lunar New Year as companies mostly finish restocking purchasing. Market unlikely to see big changes in following weeks. Republic of Korea grade A cif See South Korea cif single-number comments. South East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs One assessment up to $12/t but majority of the market sees $10/t as high end of the range. Total live copper stocks up 46,950t on large deliveries into Asian locations. LME C3M price fell back below $7,000/t. East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif Italy grade A cif Germany grade A DLVD Premium unchanged since late November, spot market remains quiet. More than 36,000t of stock delivered into LME sheds on Jan 23, of which 3,700t of stock went into Rotterdam and 67% went into Busan warehouses. LME C/3M spread was stable at a contango of $43/t on Jan 23, a level covering financing costs. Delayed vessels arrived in Italy to ease supply concerns from the past two weeks. Premium stayed unchanged as limited spot activity was heard and buying interest was lackluster. Market sources pointed to a softer premium amid quiet spot market. The impact of Aurubis' purchase of Codelco's share in a German wire rod maker is being watched closely. Leghorn grade A cif See Italy, Grade A cathode, cif, $ per tonne. North Europe grade A Warrant in-whs Stronger interest in European copper warrants continues. Live copper stock in Europe down 2,200t on cancellation in Rotterdam despite total on-warrant copper stocks increasing 29%. Southern Europe grade A Warrant in-whs See North Europe warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP cents/lb United States grade A Warrant in-whs LEAD India 99.97% cif cents/ lb India 99.99% cif January business is encouraging and spot premium could rise in February according to multiple market participants. Strong construction market and record freight rates providing upward pressure. US warrant levels stable amid quiet trading conditions. CME warehousing stocks stand at 220,119 short tons. Import demand has picked up marginally - there are no longer offers to export lead basis fob India but market has yet to see strong seasonal buying. Refined lead production rose 8% for the first 10 months of last year. High LME 3M price above $2,500/t also deterring imports. Delta between duty-free and duty-unpaid premiums persists at around $50/t. South East Asia 99.97% cif Demand is slack with price at a six-year high. South East Asia 99.99% cif LME 3M spreads flip to small contango. Taiwan 99.97% cif Taiwan 99.99% cif Same as 99.97% Taiwan cif. South East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs Premium unchanged amid weak spot demand. Normal demand from newly settled long-term contracts. China s lead metal production totaled 4.72 million tonnes in 2017, up 9.7% from last year. SHFE lead stocks increased by 3.4% - or 1,433t - vs last week to 43,572t on Jan 19. Live lead stocks down 17,225t this week and unchanged in Asian locations. LME C/3M in narrow contango at $1.25/t. LME 3M price now above $2,600/t. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3

4 LEAD (cont'd) East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP Premium stable in quiet spot market. Lead totaling 800t has left European LME warehouses since Jan 16. Spot market is traditionally active in January but the high lead price has kept many buyers out of the market this year. The LME 3M lead price has reached seven-year highs. Italy 99.97% fca DP Premium unchanged amid limited spot activity. North Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs Live lead stocks in Europe down 17,270t this week with multiple cancellations in Vlissingen. Southern Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs See North Europe warrants. United States 99.97% Warrants in-whs No LME stocks in the US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP cents/lb cents/lb Premium flat, with adequate supply offsetting increased demand for material on the spot market. The good demand is a product of the cold weather across the US. Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 cents/lb 9-11 cents/lb Same rationale as for 99.99%. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs Shanghai 99.80% cif Premium sinks to around $280/t amid fading buying interest. Arb between LME and Wuxi stays negative at around $290/t compared to previous week s $335/t. Sustained negative import window for refined nickel after increase in import taxes deters buying interest. Arb expected to remain negative in Q1 due to higher domestic refined nickel stocks and weaker demand from stainless steel sector. Shanghai Full plates cif Shanghai Full plates in-whs South East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs Premium drops to around $255/t amid sustained import loss and weaker demand. Maintenance plans at some stainless steel mills in February have reduced spot demand. SHFE refined nickel stocks increased by 17,364t since Dec 22 to 57,395t on Jan 12, weighing on Chinese domestic refined nickel prices. Three trading firms have accepted Nornickel s 2018 long-term contract offer of at least $300/t but majority of customers are still holding off. Strong demand for briquettes in Asia this week but premium stable. Live nickel stock dipped 930t this week with decline in Johor and Singapore. East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs No trades reported this week due to tight market. Still very limited availability of full plates. LME 3M price pushing closer to $13,000/t. East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia full plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs Premium stays at 11-year high. Strong bullish sentiment in the market, spurred by extremely tight full-plate material, has made it more difficult to do business below range. Bullish tone also fueled by long-term contract negotiations, deals booked at much higher premiums than 2017 s annual contracts and about level with spot premiums. Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs Rotterdam briquettes in-whs Business concluded in middle of range and offers starting above range. Participants waiting to see effect of Chinese duty changes when market picks back up in the coming weeks. Bullish sentiment and tight market helping to support the price. LME live Rotterdam nickel stocks slightly higher at 25,662t from 24,708t last week. Financing more difficult with LME C/3M now at $38.25/t. Consumers acknowledging higher price environment may stay. LME 3M price at around $12,800/t. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4

5 NICKEL (cont'd) North Europe Full plates Warrants in-whs Midwest United States 99.80% melting material DDP cents/lb cents/lb Midwest United States 99.80% plating material DDP cents/lb cents/lb TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif Live nickel stock in Europe up 954t this week in Rotterdam but still no available stock left in Hamburg or Vlissingen. Availability of full-plate warrants in Europe remains tight. Premium ticks up with the gap between shape premiums continuing to widen. Material remains tight with robust spot orders. Premium flat amid weak spot demand. Domestic supply reported to be tighter as smelters under environmental inspections. Downstream users buying stocks ahead of Lunar New Year. Importers noted declining tin content in concentrate supply from Myanmar. SHFE stocks down 316t - or 5.9% - vs last week to 5,002t on Jan 19. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Taiwan 99.9% cif Singapore 99.9% in-whs Singapore 99.9% Low lead in-whs South East Asia min 99.85% Warrants in-whs Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% Low lead in-whs Baltimore 99.85% in-whs Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM DLVD Premium unchanged amid weak spot demand. Market expected to be stable before Lunar New Year. Premium stable around eight-month high on lack of Indonesian exports, but shipments expected to resume next week. Exports in Indonesia have been delayed by quota renewal and paperwork in past three weeks, but one vessel set to leave Bangka Island next week. Spot supply remains adequate after high Q4 exports, but three-digit offers still heard in the spot market. Higher indicative premium for low-lead material due to lack of spot availability because Indonesian smelters are not currently exporting and few participants have stocks. Hard to even get an offer for 50ppm material. Live LME stocks unchanged but down 26% since beginning of January. LME C/3M widening further, now at $105/t backwardation from $35/t last week. No new spot trades reported to Metal Bulletin. MSC not making its way to Europe anymore. No live stocks in Rotterdam, last 80t canceled out for delivery. Premium remains around six-week high in Europe on lack of Indonesian exports, although shipments expected to resume next week. Demand still slow with most traders well stocked following high Indonesian exports in Q4 last year. LME 3M price jumps above $20,700/t and C/3M backwardation widens to $115/t amid very low LME stocks. Long-term contracts for 2018 concluded on either side of $325/t, slightly higher than in Low-lead premium holds near 10-month high after last week's 20% jump on tight supply availability. Spot inquiries for small tonnage struggling to find offers, especially for 50ppm material. South American producers mostly sold out, Indonesians still not exporting and traders offering high. Large buyers still mostly covered by long-term contracts: 2018 premium reported at similar level to 2017, around $ /t, except for isolated aggressive selling below $500/t. Premium moves up due to lack of availability. Tightness in the market stems primarily from lack of imports from Indonesia. Spot demand limited, but consumers taking material per contracts. Interest rates and freight continue to impact premium. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5

6 ZINC India SHG cif DP India SHG cif DUP See duty-paid. Shanghai SHG in-whs Shanghai SHG cif See Shanghai zinc in-warehouse. Taiwan SHG cif Shanghai SHG in-whs Singapore SHG in-whs Singapore SHG fca Malaysia SHG in-whs Malaysia SHG fca See Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif Singapore SHG in-whs See in-warehouse Malaysia. Rotterdam SHG fca DUP Rotterdam SHG fca DP Antwerp SHG fca DP Premium unchanged in illiquid trade conditions. Rising domestic output continues to stem imports. Premium flat this week amid closed import window and high stocks noted. Arbitrage window closed, import loss at about $165/t on Jan 22. China produced 6.22 million tonnes of refined zinc in 2017, down 0.7% from last year. SHFE stocks up 291t - or 0.4% - vs last week to 79,342t on Jan 19. Premium unchanged amid weak spot demand. Normal demand from newly settled long-term contracts. Market expected to be stable before Lunar New Year. Premium unchanged, limited spot trading on closed import arbitrage in China, nearby LME spreads in backwardation and high LME prices that continue to check demand. Sellers reluctant to lower offers. Premium slightly lower, limited buying interest for offers at $85-100/t, participants peg $75-85/t as achievable level. Demand checked by high LME prices and nearby LME spreads staying in backwardation. Premium in narrower range with higher end seen as achievable for cif Vietnam, good demand growth expected from Vietnamese market in High LME price likely to generally check spot demand but support seen from limited availability of spot material in the region. Long-term contracts in Southeast Asia heard settled at $ /t. Price at 10-year high and lingering backwardation limit physical trade in Europe. Consumers eye potential price correction as new mines bring tonnage to market in H Traders expressed concerns over rising cost of holding zinc stocks as strong backwardation in LME 3M spreads holds. Premium unchanged with limited spot activity. Offers heard below $130 as some holders look to offload tonnes amid backwardation. Antwerp SHG fca DUP No more on-warrant stock in Antwerp. Italy SHG fca DP Distributors report plenty of stock available but premium holds despite lingering backwardation. Italy SHG DDP See Zinc SHG ingots Italy duty-paid fca. North Europe SHG Warrants in-whs United States SHG Warrants in-whs Midwest United States SHG DDP 8-9 cents/lb 8-9 cents/lb No business reported this week. Live zinc stocks unchanged in Europe with just 600t in Bilbao, but total global on-warrant stocks down a further 14,450t on cancellation in New Orleans. Total zinc stocks in New Orleans dipped to 178,150t on Jan 23, down 400t. Canceled zinc warrants rose 14,050t to 80,450t on Jan 23. High LME price continues to keep consumers out of spot market. No issues with availability reported. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this . View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6