Introduction to Computational Finance and Financial Econometrics Return Calculations

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Introduction to Computational Finance and Financial Econometrics Return Calculations"

Giles Thompson
5 years ago
Views:

2 Outline 1 The time value of money Future value Multiple compounding periods Effective annual rate 2 Asset return calculations Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 2 / 56

3 Outline 1 The time value of money Future value Multiple compounding periods Effective annual rate 2 Asset return calculations Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 3 / 56

4 Future value $V invested for n years at simple interest rate R per year Compounding of interest occurs at end of year F V n = $V (1 + R) n, where F V n is future value after n years Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 4 / 56

5 Example Consider putting $1000 in an interest checking account that pays a simple annual percentage rate of 3%. The future value after n = 1, 5 and 10 years is, respectively, F V 1 = $1000 (1.03) 1 = $1030, F V 5 = $1000 (1.03) 5 = $ , F V 10 = $1000 (1.03) 10 = $ Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 5 / 56

6 Future value FV function is a relationship between four variables: F V n, V, R, n. Given three variables, you can solve for the fourth: Present value: V = F V n (1 + R) n. Compound annual return: ( ) F 1/n Vn R = 1. V Investment horizon: n = ln(f V n/v ) ln(1 + R). Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 6 / 56

7 Outline 1 The time value of money Future value Multiple compounding periods Effective annual rate 2 Asset return calculations Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 7 / 56

8 Multiple compounding periods Compounding occurs m times per year ( F Vn m = $V 1 + m) R m n, R = periodic interest rate. m Continuous compounding F V n = lim (1 $V + R ) m n = $V e R n, m m e 1 = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 8 / 56

9 Example If the simple annual percentage rate is 10% then the value of $1000 at the end of one year (n = 1) for different values of m is given in the table below. Compounding Frequency Value of $1000 at end of 1 year (R = 10%) Annually (m = 1) Quarterly (m = 4) Weekly (m = 52) Daily (m = 365) Continuously (m = ) Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 9 / 56

10 Outline 1 The time value of money Future value Multiple compounding periods Effective annual rate 2 Asset return calculations Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 10 / 56

11 Effective annual rate Annual rate R A that equates F Vn m with F V n ; i.e., ( $V 1 + m) R m n = $V (1 + R A ) n. Solving for R A ( 1 + m) R m ( = 1 + R A R A = 1 + m) R m 1. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 11 / 56

13 Example Compute effective annual rate with semi-annual compounding The effective annual rate associated with an investment with a simple annual rate R = 10% and semi-annual compounding (m = 2) is determined by solving ( (1 + R A ) = ) 2 ( R A = ) 2 1 = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 13 / 56

14 Effective annual rate Compounding Frequency Value of $1000 at end of 1 year (R = 10%) R A Annually (m = 1) % Quarterly (m = 4) % Weekly (m = 52) % Daily (m = 365) % Continuously (m = ) % Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 14 / 56

15 Outline 1 The time value of money 2 Asset return calculations Simple returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Continuously compounded (cc) returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 15 / 56

16 Outline 1 The time value of money 2 Asset return calculations Simple returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Continuously compounded (cc) returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 16 / 56

17 Simple returns P t = price at the end of month t on an asset that pays no dividends P t 1 = price at the end of month t 1 R t = P t P t 1 P t 1 = % P t = net return over month t, 1 + R t = P t P t 1 = gross return over month t. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 17 / 56

18 Example One month investment in Microsoft stock Buy stock at end of month t 1 at P t 1 = $85 and sell stock at end of next month for P t = $90. Assuming that Microsoft does not pay a dividend between months t 1 and t, the one-month simple net and gross returns are R t = $90 $85 $85 = $90 1 = = , $ R t = The one month investment in Microsoft yielded a 5.88% per month return. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 18 / 56

19 Multi-period returns Simple two-month return R t (2) = P t P t 2 P t 2 = P t P t 2 1. Relationship to one month returns R t (2) = P t P t 2 1 = P t P t 1 Pt 1 P t 2 1 = (1 + R t ) (1 + R t 1 ) 1. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 19 / 56

20 Multi-period returns Here 1 + R t = one-month gross return over month t, 1 + R t 1 = one-month gross return over month t 1, = 1 + R t (2) = (1 + R t ) (1 + R t 1 ). two-month gross return = the product of two one-month gross returns Note: two-month returns are not additive: R t (2) = R t + R t 1 + R t R t 1 R t + R t 1 if R t and R t 1 are small Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 20 / 56

21 Example Two-month return on Microsoft Suppose that the price of Microsoft in month t 2 is $80 and no dividend is paid between months t 2 and t. The two-month net return is R t (2) = $90 $80 $80 = $90 1 = = , $80 or 12.50% per two months. The two one-month returns are R t 1 = R t = $85 $80 $80 $90 85 $85 = = = = , and the geometric average of the two one-month gross returns is 1 + R t (2) = = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 21 / 56

22 Multi-period returns Simple k-month Return Note R t (k) = P t P t k P t k = P t P t k R t (k) = (1 + R t ) (1 + R t 1 ) (1 + R t k+1 ) R t (k) k 1 = (1 + R t j ) j=0 k 1 R t j j=0 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 22 / 56

23 Portfolio returns Invest $V in two assets: A and B for 1 period x A = share of $V invested in A; $V x A = $ amount x B = share of $V invested in B; $V x B = $ amount Assume x A + x B = 1 Portfolio is defined by investment shares x A and x B Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 23 / 56

24 Portfolio returns At the end of the period, the investments in A and B grow to $V (1 + R p,t ) = $V [x A (1 + R A,t ) + x B (1 + R B,t )] = $V [x A + x B + x A R A,t + x B R B,t ] = $V [1 + x A R A,t + x B R B,t ] R p,t = x A R A,t + x B R B,t The simple portfolio return is a share weighted average of the simple returns on the individual assets. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 24 / 56

25 Example Portfolio of Microsoft and Starbucks stock Purchase ten shares of each stock at the end of month t 1 at prices P msft,t 1 = $85, P sbux,t 1 = $30, The initial value of the portfolio is V t 1 = 10 $ = $1, 150. The portfolio shares are x msft = 850/1150 = , x sbux = 300/1150 = The end of month t prices are P msft,t = $90 and P sbux,t = $28. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 25 / 56

26 Example cont. Assuming Microsoft and Starbucks do not pay a dividend between periods t 1 and t, the one-period returns are R msft,t = R sbux,t = $90 $85 $85 $28 $30 $30 The return on the portfolio is = = R p,t = (0.7391)(0.0588) + (0.2609)( ) = and the value at the end of month t is V t = $1, 150 ( ) = $1, 180 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 26 / 56

27 Portfolio returns In general, for a portfolio of n assets with investment shares x i such that x x n = 1 n 1 + R p,t = x i (1 + R i,t ) i=1 n R p,t = x i R i,t i=1 = x 1 R 1t + + x n R nt Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 27 / 56

28 Adjusting for dividends D t = dividend payment between months t 1 and t R total t = P t + D t P t 1 P t 1 = P t P t 1 P t 1 + D t P t R total t = capital gain return + dividend yield (gross) = P t + D t P t 1 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 28 / 56

29 Example Total return on Microsoft stock Buy stock in month t 1 at P t 1 = $85 and sell the stock the next month for P t = $90. Assume Microsoft pays a $1 dividend between months t 1 and t. The capital gain, dividend yield and total return are then Rt total $90 + $1 $85 $90 $85 = = + $1 $85 $85 $85 = = The one-month investment in Microsoft yields a 7.07% per month total return. The capital gain component is 5.88%, and the dividend yield component is 1.18%. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 29 / 56

30 Adjusting for inflation The computation of real returns on an asset is a two step process: Deflate the nominal price P t of the asset by an index of the general price level CP I t Compute returns in the usual way using the deflated prices P Real t = P t CP I t R Real t = P t Real P Real t 1 P Real t 1 = P t CP I t P t 1 CP I t 1 P t 1 CP I t 1 = P t P t 1 CP I t 1 CP I t 1 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 30 / 56

32 Example Compute real return on Microsoft stock Suppose the CPI in months t 1 and t is 1 and 1.01, respectively, representing a 1% monthly growth rate in the overall price level. The real prices of Microsoft stock are Pt 1 Real = $85 Real = $85, Pt = $ = $ The real monthly return is Rt Real $ $85 = = $85 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 32 / 56

33 Example cont. The nominal return and inflation over the month are R t = $90 $85 $85 Then the real return is = , π t = R Real t = = = 0.01 Notice that simple real return is almost, but not quite, equal to the simple nominal return minus the inflation rate R Real t R t π t = = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 33 / 56

34 Annualizing returns Returns are often converted to an annual return to establish a standard for comparison. Example: Assume same monthly return R m for 12 months: Compound annual gross return (CAGR) = 1+R A = 1+R t (12) = (1+R Compound annual net return = R A = (1 + R m ) 12 1 Note: We don t use R A = 12R m because this ignores compounding. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 34 / 56

35 Example Annualized return on Microsoft Suppose the one-month return, R t, on Microsoft stock is 5.88%. If we assume that we can get this return for 12 months then the compounded annualized return is R A = (1.0588) 12 1 = = or 98.50% per year. Pretty good! Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 35 / 56

36 Example Annualized return on Microsoft Suppose the one-month return, R t, on Microsoft stock is 5.88%. If we assume that we can get this return for 12 months then the compounded annualized return is R A = (1.0588) 12 1 = = or 98.50% per year. Pretty good! Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 36 / 56

37 Average returns For investments over a given horizon, it is often of interest to compute a measure of average return over the horizon. Consider a sequence of monthly investments over the year with monthly returns R 1, R 2,..., R 12 The annual return is R A = R(12) = (1 + R 1 )(1 + R 2 ) (1 + R 12 ) 1 Q: What is the average monthly return? Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 37 / 56

38 Average returns Two possibilites: 1 Arithmetic average (can be misleading) R = 1 12 (R R 12 ) 2 Geometric average (better measure of average return) (1 + R) 12 = (1 + R A ) = (1 + R 1 )(1 + R 2 ) (1 + R 12 ) R = (1 + R A ) 1/12 1 = [(1 + R 1 )(1 + R 2 ) (1 + R 12 )] 1/12 1 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 38 / 56

39 Example Consider a two period invesment with returns R 1 = 0.5, R 2 = 0.5 $1 invested over two periods grows to F V = $1 (1 + R 1 )(1 + R 2 ) = (1.5)(0.5) = 0.75 for a 2-period return of R(2) = = 0.25 Hence, the 2-period investment loses 25% Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 39 / 56

40 Example cont. The arithmetic average return is R = 1 ( ) = 0 2 This is misleading becuase the actual invesment lost money over the 2 period horizon. The compound 2-period return based on the arithmetic average is (1 + R) 2 1 = = 0 The geometric average is [(1.5)(0.5)] 1/2 1 = (0.75) 1/2 1 = This is a better measure because it indicates that the investment eventually lost money. The compound 2-period return is (1 + R) 2 1 = (0.867) 2 1 = 0.25 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 40 / 56

41 Outline 1 The time value of money 2 Asset return calculations Simple returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for dividends Adjusting for inflation Annualizing returns Average returns Continuously compounded (cc) returns Multi-period returns Portfolio returns Adjusting for inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 41 / 56

42 Continuously compounded (cc) returns Note: ( ) Pt r t = ln(1 + R t ) = ln P t 1 ln( ) = natural log function ln(1 + R t ) = r t : given R t we can solve for r t R t = e rt 1 : given r t we can solve for R t r t is always smaller than R t Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 42 / 56

43 Digression on natural log and exponential functions ln(0) =, ln(1) = 0 e = 0, e 0 = 1, e 1 = d ln(x) dx = 1 x, dex dx = ex ln(e x ) = x, e ln(x) = x ln(x y) = ln(x) + ln(y); ln( x y ) = ln(x) ln(y) ln(x y ) = y ln(x) e x e y = e x+y, e x e y = e x y (e x ) y = e xy Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 43 / 56

45 Result If R t is small then r t = ln(1 + R t ) R t Proof. For a function f(x), a first order Taylor series expansion about x = x 0 is f(x) = f(x 0 ) + d dx f(x 0)(x x 0 ) + remainder Let f(x) = ln(1 + x) and x 0 = 0. Note that Then d 1 ln(1 + x) = dx 1 + x, d dx ln(1 + x 0) = 1 ln(1 + x) ln(1) + 1 x = 0 + x = x Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 45 / 56

47 Example Let P t 1 = 85, P t = 90 and R t = Then the cc monthly return can be computed in two ways: r t = ln(1.0588) = r t = ln(90) ln(85) = = Notice that r t is slightly smaller than R t. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 47 / 56

48 Multi-period returns r t (2) = ln(1 + R t (2)) Note that ( ) Pt = ln P t 2 = p t p t 2 e rt(2) = e ln(pt/p t 2) P t 2 e rt(2) = P t = r t (2) = cc growth rate in prices between months t 2 and t Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 48 / 56

49 Result cc returns are additive ( ) Pt r t (2) = ln Pt 1 P t 1 ( Pt = ln P t 1 = r t + r t 1 P t 2 ( ) Pt 1 ) + ln P t 2 where r t = cc return between months t 1 and t, r t 1 = cc return between months t 2 and t 1 Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 49 / 56

50 Example Compute cc two-month return Suppose P t 2 = 80, P t 1 = 85 and P t = 90. The cc two-month return can be computed in two equivalent ways: (1) take difference in log prices r t (2) = ln(90) ln(80) = = (2) sum the two cc one-month returns r t = ln(90) ln(85) = r t 1 = ln(85) ln(80) = r t (2) = = Notice that r t (2) = < R t (2) = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 50 / 56

52 Portfolio returns n R p,t = x i R i,t i=1 n r p,t = ln(1 + R p,t ) = ln(1 + x i R i,t ) n x i r i,t i=1 i=1 portfolio returns are not additive Note: If R p,t = n i=1 x i R i,t is not too large, then r p,t R p,t otherwise, R p,t > r p,t. Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 52 / 56

53 Example Compute cc return on portfolio Consider a portfolio of Microsoft and Starbucks stock with x msft = 0.25, x sbux = 0.75, R msft,t = , R sbux,t = R p,t = x msft R msft,t + x sbux,t R sbux,t = The cc portfolio return is r p,t = ln( ) = ln(0.977) = Note r msft,t = ln( ) = r sbux,t = ln( ) = x msft r msft + x sbux r sbux = r p,t Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 53 / 56

54 Adjusting for inflation The cc one period real return is r Real t = ln(1 + R Real t ) 1 + Rt Real = P t CP I t 1 P t 1 CP I t It follows that ( rt Real Pt = ln CP I ) ( ) ( ) t 1 Pt CP It 1 = ln + ln P t 1 CP I t P t 1 CP I t where = ln(p t ) ln(p t 1 ) + ln(cp I t 1 ) ln(cp I t ) = r t π cc t r t = ln(p t ) ln(p t 1 ) = nominal cc return π cc t = ln(cp I t ) ln(cp I t 1 ) = cc inflation Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 54 / 56

55 Example Compute cc real return Suppose: R t = π t = 0.01 R Real t = The real cc return is r Real t Equivalently, r Real t = ln(1 + R Real t ) = ln(1.0483) = = r t π cc t = ln(1.0588) ln(1.01) = Eric Zivot (Copyright 2015) Return Calculations 55 / 56

1 Some review of percentages

1 Some review of percentages Recall that 5% =.05, 17% =.17, x% = x. When we say x% of y, we 100 mean the product x%)y). If a quantity A increases by 7%, then it s new value is }{{} P new value = }{{} A