NetPicks Keltner Bells

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2 NetPicks Keltner Bells NetPicks, LLC HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY TRADING ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN, IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CAN NOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PERFORMANCE RESULTS, AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS PAST RESULTS OF NETPICKS IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE MONTHLY AND COMPOSITE ANNUAL RESULTS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS HYPOTHETICAL. IN REALITY, THE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT THE TRACK RECORD OF THE METHODOLOGY ORIGINATOR OR SUBSCRIBERS. THIS ALSO MEANS THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT ONE APPLYING THESE METHODOLOGIES WOULD HAVE THE SAME RESULTS AS POSTED. SINCE TRADING SUCCESSFULLY DEPENDS ON MANY ELEMENTS INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO A TRADING METHODOLOGY AND TRADER'S OWN PSYCHOLOGY, OUR WEB SITE DOES NOT MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED TRADING SYSTEMS MIGHT BE OR IS SUITABLE OR PROFITABLE FOR YOU In addition, it s important to understand and accept that there can be data outages and server failures. The brokers system might not be functional, the auto trading servers might have technical difficulties and there may be times where communication between accounts, the broker and the auto-trade program are not functioning properly. This can lead to greater risk. The markets also do not always guarantee exact fills. Periods of fast markets can cause greater degrees of slippage and less than ideal fills. There can be no guarantee that your account will always be able to enter and exit at the programs ideal entry or exit point. Page 2

3 Introduction NetPicks Keltner Bells Reference Manual Welcome to the NetPicks Keltner Bells Reference Manual. Our purpose here is to provide you with a quick reference resource. The real training will be found in the system videos, where the concepts and mechanics are presented to you visually. Watch the videos first, review the material on the owners web site, and start with some paper trading. When you have questions about specific setups, calculation of target, or any other technical aspect of the system, use this manual as your first source. We ll start by reviewing the basic setup of your charts. Renko and Range Bars The Keltner Bells system is designed to work with both range and Renko charts. Unlike typical time based charts, Renko and range charts are based on price movement, regardless of the time needed to paint each bar. Renko and range bars are similar in that the sizes of the bars on the chart are all the same. A ten pip Renko chart will have every bar measuring ten pips from high to low, and a fifteen pip range chart will have every bar measuring fifteen pips from high to low. The difference between range and Renko charts is in the placement of each bar. On a range bar chart, as soon as the range is completed a new bar starts printing, and bars that are next to each other will usually overlap to some degree. On a Renko chart, every bar is positioned entirely above or below the previous bar, and there is never any overlap at all between adjacent bars. Figure 1 below compares the characteristics of the two chart types. The top shows the Renko chart and the bottom the range bar chart. The charts cover the same time period. Notice that because there is no overlap from one Renko bar to the next, there are far fewer Renko bars than range bars for the same period of time and the same overall price move. Page 3

4 The Workspace Figure 1 Renko vs. Range The default Keltner Bells chart needs the following indicators: - Keltner Channel with length 34 and number of ATR s of 3 - Keltner Channel with length 21 and number of ATR s of 3 - Renko Keltner Bells Calculator In order to differentiate the two sets of Keltner Channels you can change the format style. For example, use solid lines for the 21, 3 channel and dotted or dashed lines for the 34, 3. This was done in the following example. Page 4

midline for the faster Keltner Channel, as this midline is used to

5 Figure 2 The Keltner Bells Workspace on a Renko Chart You could also use the same style for all the channel lines and simply use a distinctive midline for the faster Keltner Channel, as this midline is used to identify setups. Figure 3 The Keltner Bells Workspace on a Range Bar Chart Page 5

6 Depending on your platform, the input names for the Keltner Channel indicators will vary. On Tradestation you will use the following settings when using the default workspace: - Keltner Channel 1: o Length = 34 o NumATRs = 3 o Displace = 0 - Keltner Channel 2: o Length = 21 o NumATR s = 3 o Displace = 0 On NinjaTrader you will use: - Keltner Channel 1: o Offset Multiplier = 3 o Period = 34 - Keltner Channel 2: o Offset Multiplier = 3 o Period = 21 MetaTrader does not typically come with a built in Keltner Channel indicator, but we have included our own version in the indicator package that will match the Tradestation naming convention. The input names for the Calculator are the same across all platforms and will be described at the end of this document. Note that we have developed custom trade plans for a wide variety of instruments and time frames. The values in the custom trade plans will replace the default values for the calculator (NPKB_Calc) and for the Keltner Channel indicators. You don t actually need to install the Calculator if you understand the system rules. Because the system works with Renko and range bars, entries, targets and stops can easily be calculated manually. The Calculator simply makes all of those calculations and identifies the setup bars for you. We recommend you apply it to your charts. There is one more indicator that you will probably install in your workspace. It s the NPKB_Directional and we use it to filter setups. We ll cover this indicator later in the manual. Page 6

Strategy The Keltner Bells strategy is quite simple and requires the following steps in the case of a long trade: 1. Price closes below the extreme, indicated by the lowest Keltner Channel band. 2.

7 Strategy The Keltner Bells strategy is quite simple and requires the following steps in the case of a long trade: 1. Price closes below the extreme, indicated by the lowest Keltner Channel band. 2. Price closes on or above the midline of the 21, 3 Keltner Channel. 3. The entry, target and stop are calculated based on the setup bar from step If Price closes below the 21, 3 midline and then back above, a new entry, target and stop are calculated. 5. The setup remains valid until it s triggered, recalculated as in step 4, or cancelled by a short setup. Figure 4 Long Setup on a Renko Chart Page 7

Figure 5 Long Setup on a Range Bar Chart The steps for a short trade are the inverse: 1. Price closes above the extreme, indicated by the highest Keltner Channel band. 2.

8 Figure 5 Long Setup on a Range Bar Chart The steps for a short trade are the inverse: 1. Price closes above the extreme, indicated by the highest Keltner Channel band. 2. Price closes on or below the midline of the 21, 3 Keltner Channel. 3. The entry, target and stop are calculated based on the setup bar from step If Price closes above the 21, 3 midline and then back below, a new entry, target and stop are calculated. 5. The setup remains valid until it s triggered, recalculated as in step 4, or cancelled by a long setup. Page 8

9 Figure 6 Short Setup for a Renko Chart Figure 7 Short Setup for a Range Bar Chart We ll cover these steps in more detail in the following sections. Page 9

Strategy Extremes The first thing we look for in our strategy is a price move to the extremes. An extreme would be the highest of the Keltner Channel bands or the lowest.

10 Strategy Extremes The first thing we look for in our strategy is a price move to the extremes. An extreme would be the highest of the Keltner Channel bands or the lowest. Sometimes the solid line will give us the extreme, sometimes the dotted will. We don t care which one it is, we simply look for a close above or below the extremes. It s important that the bar closes above or below the extreme channel line. It s not enough for a bar to simply touch the channel line; it must actually close above or below it. This becomes important when using range bar charts; Renko charts will naturally close above or below the extremes the first time they touch them. Figure 8 Extremes on a Renko Chart Page 10

11 Figure 9 Extremes on a Range Bar Chart Once a bar closes above or below the extreme channel line, we look for a setup in the opposite direction. For a long setup we need a close below the lowest channel line, as shown in the examples below. Note that it s only the first close below that matters, subsequent closes below the lowest band have no impact on the setup. Page 11

12 Figure 10 Close below Extremes for Long Setup with Renko Chart Figure 11 Close below Extremes for a Long Setup with Range Bar Chart Page 12

above the highest band again. It s only the first close above the band that matters.

13 For a short setup we need a close above the highest channel line. Once we close above the highest band we start looking for a short setup, and it doesn t matter if we close above the highest band again. It s only the first close above the band that matters. See the examples for a short. Figure 12 Close above Extremes for Short Setup with Renko Chart Figure 13 Close above Extremes for Short Setup with Range Bar Chart Page 13

line. In the case of a long setup, price needs to close below the lowest Keltner Channel band and then close on or above the midline.

14 Strategy Buy and Sell Once we have a close above or below the extremes we start looking for a setup bar. A setup bar will come when the price bar closes on or beyond the midline of the fast Keltner Channel, which by convention we indicate with a thicker solid line. In the case of a long setup, price needs to close below the lowest Keltner Channel band and then close on or above the midline. The bar that closes on or above the midline becomes the setup bar, and the entry, target and stop for the setup will be calculated based on that bar. Figure 14 Long Setup on a Renko Chart Figure 15 Long Setup on a Range Bar Chart Page 14

Figure 16 Short Setup on a Renko Chart Figure 17 Short Setup on a Range Bar Chart Sometimes price will pull back after the midline is touched.

15 For a short setup price needs to close above the highest Keltner Channel band and then close on or below the midline. The bar that closes on or below the midline is the setup bar, and the entry, target and stop will be calculated based on that bar. Figure 16 Short Setup on a Renko Chart Figure 17 Short Setup on a Range Bar Chart Sometimes price will pull back after the midline is touched. As an example consider a long setup: price closed on or above the midline and then closed back below it. After this happens we could get a new setup bar the next time price closes on or above the midline. When we get the new setup bar we recalculate the entry, target and stop and replace the previous values if the new setup gives us a better entry. A better entry is one that is closer to the current price bar. This can happen several times before the setup is triggered or cancelled. Page 15

After price closes on or below the midline the first time, if price moves back above the midline

16 Figure 18 Revised Long Setups on a Renko Chart Figure 19 Revised Long Setups on a Range Bar Chart The same thing can happen with a short setup. After price closes on or below the midline the first time, if price moves back above the midline we could get a new setup bar. If price again closes on or below the midline we have a new setup bar and recalculate the entry, target and stop. Page 16

Figure 20 Revised Short Setups on a Renko Chart Figure 21 Revised Short Setups on a Range Bar Chart Once we have a setup bar we can calculate the entry price for the trade using the Calculator input

Typical values for this input are 3 or 4, meaning that in the case of a long setup the entry will be 3 or 4 bricks above the high of the setup bar.

17 Figure 20 Revised Short Setups on a Renko Chart Figure 21 Revised Short Setups on a Range Bar Chart Once we have a setup bar we can calculate the entry price for the trade using the Calculator input i11_bkoutbricks. The value of this input tells us how many bricks above/below the high/low of the setup bar to place the entry. Typical values for this input are 3 or 4, meaning that in the case of a long setup the entry will be 3 or 4 bricks above the high of the setup bar. For certain instruments and brick sizes this input could be smaller or larger, and you will find specific settings in the trade plans on the owners web site. The size of a brick is the size of the Renko or range bar. In order to calculate the entry price we multiply the i11_bkoutbricks value by the size of a brick. For Page 17

18 example, the EURUSD.0015 Renko chart in Figure 22 has bricks of size.0015, or 15 pips each. If we use an i11_bkoutbricks value of 4 on this chart, then a long setup will have its entry 4 bricks or (4 Bricks X.0015 Points/Brick) =.0060 above the high of the setup bar. That s 60 pips above the high of the bar. Similarly a short entry would be 60 pips below the low of the setup bar. Figure 22 Calculating the Entry Price on a Renko Chart The next chart shows how we determine the entry price on a range bar chart. As with the Renko chart, we simply multiply the bar size by the value of the input i11_bkoutbricks. In the example the bar size is 15 pips and the value of i11_bkoutbricks is 2. The entry is therefore placed 2bricks X 15pips/brick = 30pips above the high of the setup bar. That holds true for every revised setup bar also. Page 18

19 Figure 23 Calculating the Entry Price on a Range Bar Chart Page 19

Strategy Target and Stop Whenever we get a new setup bar we calculate the entry, target and stop. The previous section explained how we calculate the entry.

20 Strategy Target and Stop Whenever we get a new setup bar we calculate the entry, target and stop. The previous section explained how we calculate the entry. The target and stop calculations are similar except that they are based on the entry price. For the target we use the input i12_tgtbricks which specifies how many bricks above/below the entry to place the target. In the case of a long setup, the target is placed above the long entry by the i12_tgtbricks number of bricks. For example, continuing with our EURUSD chart, we have i12_tgtbricks set to 7. That means that the long target will be 7 bricks or (7 Bricks X.0015 Points/Brick) = 1.05 above the entry. That s 105 pips above the entry. In the case of a short setup the target would be 105 pips below the entry. Figure 24 Calculating the Target on a Renko Chart The following chart shows how we calculate the target on a range bar chart. The process is exactly the same: we multiply the bar size by the i12_tgtbricks value. In this case the bar size is also 15 pips and the input i12_tgtbricks is 8. We therefore place the target eight bricks or 120 pips (8 X 15) above the entry. Page 20

Figure 25 Calculating the Target on a Range Bar Chart To calculate the stop we use the input i13_tgtbricks, which specifies how many bricks below/above the entry to place the stop.

21 Figure 25 Calculating the Target on a Range Bar Chart To calculate the stop we use the input i13_tgtbricks, which specifies how many bricks below/above the entry to place the stop. If we use our EURUSD example, which has an i13_stopbricks value of 4, the stop on a long setup would be placed 4 bricks or (4 Bricks X.0015 Points/Brick) =.0060 below the entry. That s 60 pips below the entry. In the case of a short setup, the stop would be placed 60 pips above the entry. Page 21

We multiply the size of the bar, 15 pips, by the input value i13_stopbricks.

22 Figure 26 Calculating the Stop on a Renko Chart The next chart shows that placing the stop on a range bar chart follows the same process as on a Renko chart. We multiply the size of the bar, 15 pips, by the input value i13_stopbricks. In the example i13_stopbricks is set to 5, so the stop is placed 5bricks X 15pips/brick = 75pips above the entry for the short setup and 75 pips below the entry for the long setup. Figure 27 Calculating the Stop on a Range Bar Chart Page 22

Once an entry is triggered, we do not change the target or stop. We exit the trade either when the target or stop is hit, or when we are triggered into an opposing setup.

23 Once an entry is triggered, we do not change the target or stop. We exit the trade either when the target or stop is hit, or when we are triggered into an opposing setup. For example, if we are in a long trade we stay in it until we hit target or stop, or until a short setup with an entry above our stop is triggered. That is unless we use the optional stop management inputs. Stop Management Optional We ve provided you with the option to tighten the stop on a trade as it progresses toward its target. This is not the approach used in the Owners Club daily update, but you may choose to use it if you prefer to reduce risk as price moves in your favor. In order to activate the optional stop management, set the input i21_useriskmgt to True. This will turn on the feature. Now when price moves half way to target, the stop will be tightened by 50%, cutting your risk in half. Furthermore, once price gets within one brick, or one bar size of target, the stop will be moved to breakeven or to lock in a brick or more of profit. Input i22_bkevenbricks is used to specify how many bricks of profit to lock in when price gets within one brick of target. If this input is set to zero, the stop is moved to breakeven; if it s set to a positive number the stop is moved so that you lock in that many bricks of profit. For example, consider a 15 pip range bar chart with a target of 8 bricks, or 120 pips. As soon as price has moved 60 pips in your favor the stop is moved half way to the entry. Once price has advanced 105 pips the stop will be moved to its breakeven level, or if input i22_bkevenbricks is set to 1, it will be moved 15 pips beyond the entry. This is illustrated below. Figure 28 Using the Stop Management Feature Page 23

24 Directional Filter Included in your indicator package is the NPKB_Directional indicator. The directional identifies the longer term price trend, and will be green when the trend is up and red when the trend is down. Use of the directional as a filter is optional but highly recommended. We use it daily in the Owners Club and the daily update. In the Keltner Bells system we use the directional to tell us if a trend is very strong. We consider a trend to be very strong if the directional is outside all of the channel lines. If the trend is up and the directional is below the channel lines, we won t take any short trade; if the trend is down and the directional is above the channel lines, we won t take any long trades. The following figure shows the market in a strong uptrend, and as you can see in the highlighted box the directional is below all of the channel lines. As long as the directional is below all of the channel lines we will not take any short trades. Once the directional moves back inside the channels we will resume taking short trades. Figure 29 Directional Filter in an Uptrend As a strong trend is establishing itself or coming to an end it s common to see the directional move into and out of the channel lines. The filter rule still applies: as long as the directional is outside of the channel lines we will not take any trades in opposition to the trend. The following chart shows one such Page 24

example in a strong downtrend. The directional weaves into and back out of the channel, and in that brief period between the highlighted zones we could indeed have taken a long trade.

25 example in a strong downtrend. The directional weaves into and back out of the channel, and in that brief period between the highlighted zones we could indeed have taken a long trade. Figure 30 Directional Filter in a Downtrend As with all indicators and filters, the directional is not infallible. There will be occasions when a winning trade is filtered out, but in most cases the filter keeps us out of weak, losing rallies against a strong prevailing trend. Snapshot Trading and Getting in Synch The Keltner Bells system is a swing system and is not meant to be traded around the clock. Instead we use an approach called snapshot trading. Snapshot trading means that we take two snapshots of our markets, one in the evening and one in the morning, and only place our trades at those two times. That means that we will not be able to take every trade that sets up during the day, nor should we, no matter how tempting that is. Snapshot trading is an integral element of the Keltner Bells, it s how the system is meant to be traded. The exact times you choose for your snapshots are not critical. They should be around the same time every day, but may vary from day to day due to personal circumstances. Nor do they need to be the same times for everyone: Six to eight in the evening and nine in the morning New York time may work fine if you are based in the US but would be totally unsuitable for someone based in Europe or Asia. Select the times that fit your schedule. Since we only take trades twice each day there will be many trades that we miss during the day. That s fine. Some of those trades will be winners that we miss out on, but others will be losers that we avoid. Page 25

We have found that we obtain the best overall results however with the snapshot approach. At the time of your snapshots you will place orders for any new setups available at that time.

26 We have found that we obtain the best overall results however with the snapshot approach. At the time of your snapshots you will place orders for any new setups available at that time. You can also attempt to enter trades that have already triggered, as long as those trades have not stopped out or reached target yet. When you get in synch always enter the trades at their original entry price, don t attempt to get a better entry price and don t chase the trades. Some of these trades will simply run away from you and never give you a chance to get in synch, but usually price will give you pullback opportunities. The example below shows two trade opportunities that present themselves at an 8 a.m. snapshot. First, we have a new short setup and we simply place a stop entry order to go short at the entry price. We leave the order out there until it s filled or cancelled. Second, we see that the system had already triggered into a long trade. As long as the trade triggered in a valid trade zone, explained below, we can get in synch with it. Because price at the snapshot time is above the long entry, we place a limit order to buy at the entry price, and that order would stay in place until filled or cancelled. In this example you see that the long limit order would have been filled less than an hour later and gone on to hit its target. The short order would not have been filled and we would cancel it when we did our evening snapshot. Figure 31 Snapshot Trading and Getting in Synch Although normally we get in synch with a triggered trade as long as the stop or target has not been hit, we do make an exception in the event that price has already moved very close to target. We consider a trade to have moved close to target if it came within one or two bricks of target, depending on the size Page 26

27 of the setup. If that s the case, do not get in synch with the trade. There is one overriding consideration when taking a trade that we haven t discussed yet, and that s the requirement that a trade must trigger inside the trade zone to be valid. We ll discuss that next. Trade Zone and No-Trade Zone Every trade plan published in the Owners Club has a start time and a stop time. The start and stop times define the valid trade zone and are listed using New York time. You need to convert them to your local time if you live outside of this time zone. Trades that trigger inside the trade zone are valid trades, we can take them or get in synch with them. If a trade triggered in a valid trade zone we can even get in synch with it during the no-trade zone (NTZ), which is any time outside those start and stop times. What matters is that the trade triggered during the trade zone, not the time we actually place the order. We can even get in synch with trades that originally triggered inside the NTZ, as long as they also triggered at least once during the valid trade zone. As an example consider a trade zone that runs from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. If a trade initially triggers at midnight that would be the no-trade zone and we would normally not attempt to get in synch with it. But if it touches its entry price again at 7 a.m., during the valid trade zone, we can then attempt to get in synch with the trade when we take our 8 a.m. or 9 a.m. snapshot. The interplay between snapshot times, trade and no-trade zones, and getting in synch can seem complex at first glance, but it actually greatly simplifies our trading. It allows us to spend only ten minutes or so, twice a day, to review the charts and place our trades. We won t capture every trade that sets up but that s okay. Some of the trades that we miss will be winners, but more will be losers. To achieve success with the system follow this approach, to do otherwise is essentially breaking the system. Keep the following points in mind: - A trade must trigger for the first time in a trade zone. - A trade can trigger in a no-trade zone the first time and then again in a trade zone and be valid. - Any time one of the two conditions above are met, we can take the trade in real time or get in synch when we take our snapshot, even if we take our snapshot during a no-trade zone. The walkthroughs in the course video cover these elements in detail and with many examples. Page 27

28 Calculator Inputs The Calculator inputs allow us to customize the strategy for different currency pairs and brick sizes. You will find sample trade plans in the owners site along with their specific input values. The following is a list of the Calculator inputs: - i00_version This is a simple text field that indicates the date of the Calculator version - i01_k1len Specifies the length or period of the first Keltner Channel. The default is i02_k1atr Specifies the number of ATR s or the offset multiplier for the first Keltner Channel. The default value is 3. - i03_k2len Specifies the length or period of the second Keltner Channel. We use the midline of this Keltner Channel for our setups. The default value is i04_k2atr Specifies the number of ATR s or the offset multiplier for the second Keltner Channel. We use the midline of this Keltner Channel for our setups. The default value is 3. - i05_k3len Specifies the length or period of the third Keltner Channel. This is currently not used and is here for a possible future enhancement. The default value is 21, and this input should always be set to the same value as i03_k2len. - i06_k3atr Specifies the length or period of the third Keltner Channel. This is currently not used and is here for a possible future enhancement. The default value is 1.5, and this input should always be set to the same value as i04_k2atr. - i11_bkoutbricks Specifies how many Renko bricks above the high (for a long) or below the low (for a short) of the setup bar to place the entry. The default value is 3. - i12_tgtbricks Specifies how many Renko bricks above (for a long) or below (for a short) the entry to place the target. The default value is 7. - i13_stopbricks Specifies how many Renko bricks below (for a long) or above (for a short) the entry to place the stop. The default value is 4. - i21_useriskmgt Tells the calculator to automatically move the stop when price advances half way to target and when it gets within one brick of target. By default this is set to False. - i22_bkevenbricks Tells the calculator how many bricks of profit to lock in when price gets within one brick of target. The default value is 0, so the stop will be moved to breakeven. - i31_anticipate When set to True the system will plot the anticipated entry level on each bar. This can be useful in anticipating setups when the input i11_bkoutbricks is zero. By default this is set to False. Page 28

29 Onward The Keltner Bells is a simple but effective system. Review the trade plans on the owners site and paper trade before committing real money. And always use prudent risk management in each and every trade you take. Good trading! Page 29

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