Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle in a DSGE Model

Transcription

1 Examining the Bond Premium Puzzle in a DSGE Model Glenn D. Rudebusch Eric T. Swanson Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Taylor s Contributions to Monetary Theory and Policy Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 12, 2007

2 Outline 1 Motivation and Background 2 The Term Premium in a Benchmark New Keynesian Model 3 Benchmark Results 4 Slow-Moving Habits and Labor Market Frictions 5 Conclusions

3 The Bond Premium Puzzle The equity premium puzzle: excess returns on stocks are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Mehra and Prescott, 1985).

4 The Bond Premium Puzzle The equity premium puzzle: excess returns on stocks are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Mehra and Prescott, 1985). The bond premium puzzle: excess returns on long-term bonds are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Backus, Gregory, and Zin, 1989).

5 The Bond Premium Puzzle The equity premium puzzle: excess returns on stocks are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Mehra and Prescott, 1985). The bond premium puzzle: excess returns on long-term bonds are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Backus, Gregory, and Zin, 1989). Note: Since Backus, Gregory, and Zin (1989), DSGE models with nominal rigidities have advanced considerably

6 The Bond Premium Puzzle The equity premium puzzle: excess returns on stocks are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Mehra and Prescott, 1985). The bond premium puzzle: excess returns on long-term bonds are much larger (and more variable) than can be explained by standard preferences in a DSGE model (Backus, Gregory, and Zin, 1989). Note: Since Backus, Gregory, and Zin (1989), DSGE models with nominal rigidities have advanced considerably

7 The Bond Premium Puzzle Table 2: Summary Statistics for Four Measures of the Term Premium on the 10-year Bond, Measures Mean Standard deviation Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack Rudebusch and Wu Kim and Wright Vector autoregression Average means and standard deviations in basis points

8 The Bond Premium Puzzle Table 2: Summary Statistics for Four Measures of the Term Premium on the 10-year Bond, Measures Mean Standard deviation Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack Rudebusch and Wu Kim and Wright Vector autoregression Average means and standard deviations in basis points

9 Kim-Wright Term Premium Kim-Wright Term Premium on 10-Year Zero-Coupon Bond Percent

10 Why Study the Bond Premium Puzzle? The bond premium puzzle is important: DSGE models increasingly used for policy analysis; total failure to explain term premium may signal flaws in the model many empirical questions about term premium require a structural DSGE model to provide reliable answers

11 Why Study the Bond Premium Puzzle? The bond premium puzzle is important: DSGE models increasingly used for policy analysis; total failure to explain term premium may signal flaws in the model many empirical questions about term premium require a structural DSGE model to provide reliable answers The equity premium puzzle has received more attention in the literature, but the bond premium puzzle: provides an additional perspective on the model tests nominal rigidities in the model only requires modeling short-term interest rate process, not dividends applies to a larger volume of U.S. securities

12 Recent Studies of the Bond Premium Puzzle Wachter (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle using Campbell-Cochrane preferences in endowment economy

13 Recent Studies of the Bond Premium Puzzle Wachter (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle using Campbell-Cochrane preferences in endowment economy Hördahl, Tristani, Vestin (2006), Ravenna Seppälä (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle in production economy using giant shocks

14 Recent Studies of the Bond Premium Puzzle but: Wachter (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle using Campbell-Cochrane preferences in endowment economy Hördahl, Tristani, Vestin (2006), Ravenna Seppälä (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle in production economy using giant shocks Rudebusch, Sack, and Swanson (2007) the term premium is very small in a standard, simple calibrated New Keynesian model

15 Recent Studies of the Bond Premium Puzzle but: Wachter (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle using Campbell-Cochrane preferences in endowment economy Hördahl, Tristani, Vestin (2006), Ravenna Seppälä (2005) can resolve bond premium puzzle in production economy using giant shocks Rudebusch, Sack, and Swanson (2007) the term premium is very small in a standard, simple calibrated New Keynesian model Moreover, in the present paper, we show: in the Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2006) model, term premium is 1 bp

16 The Term Premium in a Benchmark DSGE Model 2 The Term Premium in a Benchmark New Keynesian Model Define Benchmark New Keynesian Model Review Asset Pricing Solve the Model

17 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Representative household with preferences: ( ) max E t β t (c t h t ) 1 γ l 1+χ t χ 0 1 γ 1 + χ t=0

18 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Representative household with preferences: ( ) max E t β t (c t h t ) 1 γ l 1+χ t χ 0 1 γ 1 + χ t=0 Benchmark model: let h t bc t 1

19 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Representative household with preferences: ( ) max E t β t (c t h t ) 1 γ l 1+χ t χ 0 1 γ 1 + χ t=0 Benchmark model: let h t bc t 1 Stochastic discount factor: m t+1 = β(c t+1 bc t ) γ (C t bc t 1 ) γ P t P t+1

20 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Representative household with preferences: ( ) max E t β t (c t h t ) 1 γ l 1+χ t χ 0 1 γ 1 + χ t=0 Benchmark model: let h t bc t 1 Stochastic discount factor: m t+1 = β(c t+1 bc t ) γ (C t bc t 1 ) γ P t P t+1 Parameters: β =.99, b =.66, γ = 2, χ = 1.5

21 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Continuum of differentiated firms: face Dixit-Stiglitz demand with elasticity 1+θ θ, markup θ set prices in Calvo contracts with avg. duration 4 quarters identical production functions y t = A t k 1 α l α t have firm-specific capital stocks face aggregate technology log A t = ρ A log A t 1 + ε A t Parameters θ =.2, ρ A =.9, σ 2 A =.012 Perfectly competitive goods aggregation sector

22 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Government: imposes lump-sum taxes G t on households destroys the resources it collects log G t = ρ G log G t 1 + (1 ρ g ) log Ḡ + εg t Parameters Ḡ =.17Ȳ, ρ G =.9, σg 2 =.0042

23 Benchmark New Keynesian Model (Very Standard) Government: imposes lump-sum taxes G t on households destroys the resources it collects log G t = ρ G log G t 1 + (1 ρ g ) log Ḡ + εg t Parameters Ḡ =.17Ȳ, ρ G =.9, σg 2 =.0042 Monetary Authority: i t = ρ i i t 1 + (1 ρ i ) [1/β + π + g y (y t ȳ) + g π ( π t π )] + ε i t Parameters ρ i =.73, g y =.53, g π =.93, π = 0, σ 2 i =.004 2

24 Asset Pricing Asset pricing: p t = d t + E t [m t+1 p t+1 ] Zero-coupon bond pricing: p (n) t = E t [m t+1 p (n 1) t+1 ] i (n) t = 1 n log p(n) t Notation: let i t i (1) t

25 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model

26 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model In DSGE framework, convenient to work with a default-free consol,

27 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model In DSGE framework, convenient to work with a default-free consol, a perpetuity that pays $1, δ c, δ 2 c, δ 3 c,... (nominal)

28 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model In DSGE framework, convenient to work with a default-free consol, a perpetuity that pays $1, δ c, δ 2 c, δ 3 c,... (nominal) Price of the consol: p ( ) t = 1 + δ c E t m t+1 p ( ) t+1

29 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model In DSGE framework, convenient to work with a default-free consol, a perpetuity that pays $1, δ c, δ 2 c, δ 3 c,... (nominal) Price of the consol: p ( ) t = 1 + δ c E t m t+1 p ( ) t+1 Risk-neutral consol price: p ( )rn t = 1 + δ c e i t E t p ( )rn t+1

30 The Term Premium in the Benchmark Model In DSGE framework, convenient to work with a default-free consol, a perpetuity that pays $1, δ c, δ 2 c, δ 3 c,... (nominal) Price of the consol: p ( ) t = 1 + δ c E t m t+1 p ( ) t+1 Risk-neutral consol price: p ( )rn t = 1 + δ c e i t E t p ( )rn t+1 Term premium: ( ) ( ) δ c p ( ) t δ c p ( )rn t log p ( ) log t 1 p ( )rn t 1

31 Solving the Model The benchmark model above has a relatively large numer of state variables: C t 1, A t 1, G t 1, i t 1, t 1, π t, ε A t, εg t, ε i t

32 Solving the Model The benchmark model above has a relatively large numer of state variables: C t 1, A t 1, G t 1, i t 1, t 1, π t, ε A t, εg t, ε i t We solve the model by approximation around the nonstochastic steady state (perturbation methods)

33 Solving the Model The benchmark model above has a relatively large numer of state variables: C t 1, A t 1, G t 1, i t 1, t 1, π t, ε A t, εg t, ε i t We solve the model by approximation around the nonstochastic steady state (perturbation methods) In a first-order approximation, term premium is zero In a second-order approximation, term premium is a constant (sum of variances) So we compute a third-order approximation of the solution around nonstochastic steady state perturbationaim algorithm in Swanson, Anderson, Levin (2006) quickly computes nth order approximations

34 Results In the benchmark NK model: mean term premium: 2.0 bp unconditional standard deviation of term premium: 0.1 bp

35 Results In the benchmark NK model: mean term premium: 2.0 bp unconditional standard deviation of term premium: 0.1 bp Intuition: shocks in macro models have standard deviations.01 2nd-order terms in macro models (.01) 2 3rd-order terms (.01) 3

36 Results In the benchmark NK model: mean term premium: 2.0 bp unconditional standard deviation of term premium: 0.1 bp Intuition: shocks in macro models have standard deviations.01 2nd-order terms in macro models (.01) 2 3rd-order terms (.01) 3 To make these higher-order terms important, need high curvature modifications from finance literature or shocks with standard deviations.01

37 Robustness of Results Table 1: Alternative Parameterizations of Baseline Model Baseline case Low case High case Parameter value value mean[ψ t] value mean[ψ t] γ χ b ρ A σa ρ i g π g y π

38 Robustness of Results Table 1: Alternative Parameterizations of Baseline Model Baseline case Low case High case Parameter value value mean[ψ t] value mean[ψ t] γ χ b ρ A σa ρ i g π g y π

39 Models with Giant Shocks Hördahl, Tristani, Vestin (2006) match level of term premium using: NK model very similar to our benchmark model giant technology shocks: ρ a =.986, σ a =.0237 in our benchmark model, imply consol term premium of 100bp

40 Models with Giant Shocks Hördahl, Tristani, Vestin (2006) match level of term premium using: NK model very similar to our benchmark model giant technology shocks: ρ a =.986, σ a =.0237 in our benchmark model, imply consol term premium of 100bp Ravenna and Seppälä (2007) match level of term premium using: NK model similar to above (c t bc t 1 ) 1 γ l 1+χ t preferences: ξ t χ 0 1 γ 1 + χ giant preference shocks: ρ ξ =.95, σ ξ =.08 in our benchmark model, imply consol term premium of 29.8bp

41 Models with Giant Shocks Table 3: Unconditional Moments Parameterizations of DSGE Model Variable Baseline HTV RS mean[ψ] standard deviations measured in percent sd[c] sd[y ] sd[l] sd[w r ] sd[π] standard deviations measured in basis points sd[i] sd[ytm] sd[ψ]

42 Models with Giant Shocks Table 3: Unconditional Moments Parameterizations of DSGE Model Variable Baseline HTV RS mean[ψ] standard deviations measured in percent sd[c] sd[y ] sd[l] sd[w r ] sd[π] standard deviations measured in basis points sd[i] sd[ytm] sd[ψ]

43 Slow-Moving Habits and Labor Market Frictions 4 Slow-Moving Habits and Labor Market Frictions Campbell-Cochrane Habits Campbell-Cochrane Habits with Labor Market Frictions

44 Campbell-Cochrane Habits Preferences: (c t H t ) 1 γ 1 γ l 1+χ t χ χ Habits defined implicitly by S t C t H t C t, where: log S t = φ log S t 1 + (1 φ) log S + ( ) 1 1 2(log S t 1 log S S) 1 ( log C t E t 1 log C t ) Campbell-Cochrane calibrate φ =.87, S =.0588

45 Campbell-Cochrane Habits: Results Recall: Wachter (2005) resolves bond premium puzzle using: Campbell-Cochrane habits endowment economy random walk consumption exogenous process for inflation

46 Campbell-Cochrane Habits: Results Recall: Wachter (2005) resolves bond premium puzzle using: Campbell-Cochrane habits endowment economy random walk consumption exogenous process for inflation However, incorporating Campbell-Cochrane habits into our benchmark DSGE model implies: mean term premium: 3.7 bp standard deviation of term premium: 0.2 bp

47 Campbell-Cochrane Habits: Results Recall: Wachter (2005) resolves bond premium puzzle using: Campbell-Cochrane habits endowment economy random walk consumption exogenous process for inflation However, incorporating Campbell-Cochrane habits into our benchmark DSGE model implies: mean term premium: 3.7 bp standard deviation of term premium: 0.2 bp Intuition: in a DSGE model, households can self-insure by varying labor supply

48 Campbell-Cochrane Habits and Labor Market Frictions Possible solution: add labor market frictions to prevent households from self-insuring Explore three classes of labor market frictions: households pay an adjustment cost: κ(log l t log l t 1 ) 2 staggered nominal wage contracting real wage rigidities (Nash bargaining)

49 Campbell-Cochrane Habits with Adjustment Costs Figure 1: Mean Term Premium Mean Term Premium (basis points) mean term premium, no C-C habits mean term premium, with C-C habits % 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Output Cost of 1% Change in Labor

50 Campbell-Cochrane Habits with Adjustment Costs Table 6: Unconditional Moments Variable Campbell- C-C with Baseline Cochrane quadratic adj. costs to labor mean[ψ] standard deviations measured in percent sd[c] sd[y ] sd[l] sd[w r ] sd[π] standard deviations measured in basis points sd[i] sd[ytm] sd[ψ]

51 Campbell-Cochrane Habits with Adjustment Costs Table 6: Unconditional Moments Variable Campbell- C-C with Baseline Cochrane quadratic adj. costs to labor mean[ψ] standard deviations measured in percent sd[c] sd[y ] sd[l] sd[w r ] sd[π] standard deviations measured in basis points sd[i] sd[ytm] sd[ψ]

52 Staggered Nominal Wage Contracts Introduce staggered nominal wage contracts as in Erceg, Henderson, Levin (2000), Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2006)

53 Staggered Nominal Wage Contracts Introduce staggered nominal wage contracts as in Erceg, Henderson, Levin (2000), Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2006) Note: to make the model tractable, assume complete markets

54 Staggered Nominal Wage Contracts Introduce staggered nominal wage contracts as in Erceg, Henderson, Levin (2000), Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2006) Note: to make the model tractable, assume complete markets With Campbell-Cochrane habits and nominal wage contracts, term premium in the model decreases to 1.3bp

55 Staggered Nominal Wage Contracts Introduce staggered nominal wage contracts as in Erceg, Henderson, Levin (2000), Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2006) Note: to make the model tractable, assume complete markets With Campbell-Cochrane habits and nominal wage contracts, term premium in the model decreases to 1.3bp Intuition: complete markets provide households with insurance, more than offsets the costs of the wage friction

56 Real Wage Rigidities Following Blanchard and Galí (2005), model real wage bargaining rigidity as: log w r t = (1 µ) ( log w r t + ω ) + µ log w r t 1

57 Real Wage Rigidities Following Blanchard and Galí (2005), model real wage bargaining rigidity as: log w r t = (1 µ) ( log w r t + ω ) + µ log w r t 1 With Campbell-Cochrane habits and µ =.99, term premium in the model is just 4.2bp With Campbell-Cochrane habits and µ =.999, term premium in the model is 4.7bp

58 Real Wage Rigidities Following Blanchard and Galí (2005), model real wage bargaining rigidity as: log w r t = (1 µ) ( log w r t + ω ) + µ log w r t 1 With Campbell-Cochrane habits and µ =.99, term premium in the model is just 4.2bp With Campbell-Cochrane habits and µ =.999, term premium in the model is 4.7bp Intuition: wage friction increases volatility of MRS, but decreases volatility of inflation, interest rates

59 Additional Robustness Checks CEE model models with investment time-varying π t None of these have helped to fit the term premium

60 Conclusions

61 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains:

62 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains: 1 The term premium in standard NK DSGE models is very small, even more stable

63 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains: 1 The term premium in standard NK DSGE models is very small, even more stable 2 To match term premium in NK DSGE framework, need high curvature together with labor frictions (not wage frictions)

64 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains: 1 The term premium in standard NK DSGE models is very small, even more stable 2 To match term premium in NK DSGE framework, need high curvature together with labor frictions (not wage frictions) 3 However, matching the term premium destroys the model s ability to fit macro variables, particularly the real wage

65 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains: 1 The term premium in standard NK DSGE models is very small, even more stable 2 To match term premium in NK DSGE framework, need high curvature together with labor frictions (not wage frictions) 3 However, matching the term premium destroys the model s ability to fit macro variables, particularly the real wage 4 There appears to be no easy way to fix this in the standard, habit-based NK DSGE framework

66 Conclusions The bond premium puzzle remains: 1 The term premium in standard NK DSGE models is very small, even more stable 2 To match term premium in NK DSGE framework, need high curvature together with labor frictions (not wage frictions) 3 However, matching the term premium destroys the model s ability to fit macro variables, particularly the real wage 4 There appears to be no easy way to fix this in the standard, habit-based NK DSGE framework 5 Future work: Epstein-Zin preferences?

67 Slow-Moving Habits Brief intuition: R t = 1 E t m r t+1 ˆR t β + γ c h β = (c t h t ) γ βe t (c t+1 h t+1 ) γ [ c(e t ĉ t+1 ĉ t ) h(e t ĥ t+1 ĥt) γ h c h (ĥt+1 ĥt) Slow-moving habits can keep risk-free rate volatility down even if h c ]

68 Campbell-Cochrane Habits with Adjustment Costs Intuition for why real wages are so volatile: Note: h c w r t = χ 0 l χ t (c t h t ) γ ŵt r χˆl t + γ ( c c h ĉt h ĥt) h t and c t do not covary strongly (because habits are slow-moving) So the real wage is very volatile.

69 Impulse Responses: Baseline Model

70 Impulse Responses: Campbell-Cochrane

71 Impulse Responses: Camp-Coch w/ RW Rigidity

72 Impulse Responses: Camp-Coch w/ Adj. Cost