Investment Plan for SPA3ETF USA Equal Weighting Public Portfolio

Transcription

1 Investment Plan for SPA3ETF USA Equal Weighting Public Portfolio 1 MISSION STATEMENT To actively continue to manage a SPA3ETF USA Equal Weighting Public Portfolio with limited drawdown and maximum portfolio growth using ETFs in the USA so that: 1. Share Wealth Systems SPA3ETF customers can learn how to easily manage their own ETF portfolios, understand the returns that are possible and achieve their own investment objectives, both financial and skills based. 2. To grow the funds allocated to this portfolio over the long term for the stakeholders. 2 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES The overall objectives remain to demonstrate: The benefits of using a simple, efficient and structured methodology for medium-term investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The risk management processes of mechanical investing with SPA3ETF with a core objective to avoid being invested during a large a bear market such as 2008 or on the NASDAQ. To accumulate growth for the stakeholders. o US$60,000 cash was deposited with SAXO Capital Markets on 12 May 2015, and will continue to be traded with no capital withdrawals. o This portfolio will be traded at 1.6:1 leverage. o The difference between the cash and the leveraged exposure at any given time will be funded through Margin by trading CFDs for which the portfolio will incur interest charges. The Reward Objective or performance goal for the portfolio is to: Achieve an average annual return of 4 compounded percentage points per annum better than the annual compounded percentage gain of the S&P500 Total Return Index as measured over a rolling five year period. The Risk Objectives for the portfolio are: The SPA3ETF US Equal Weighting Portfolio will not have any Risk Objective as it will accept whatever drawdown results from using the SPA3ETF Equal Weighting Strategy. This has been decided upon so that the portfolio can be used as a training tool for SPA3ETF active investors. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 1 of 9

2 The following bullet points provide a sample of Risk Objectives that may suit your risk profile, but are not applicable to this portfolio: Ensure that the portfolio does not experience a maximum drawdown greater than 15% (or 20%, or 25%) if there are any open trades. Should this occur then the portfolio will close all currently open positions until the occurrence of the next ETF Entry signal. If the portfolio reaches a drawdown of 7.5% since the last peak then the current total portfolio exposure will be reduced by 33.33% by closing 33.33% of all open positions, if required, until the portfolio makes a new high from the last peak or reaches a drawdown of 12.5%. In essence, the portfolio should go from being 100% invested to being 67.7% invested, i.e. increase cash levels. If the portfolio reaches a drawdown of 12.5% since the last peak then the current total portfolio exposure will be reduced to 50% % by closing 50% of all open positions, if required, until the portfolio rises to be less than 12.5% drawdown since the last peak or reaches a drawdown of 15%. In essence, the portfolio should go from being 100% invested to being 50% invested, i.e. increase cash levels. The Skills objective for the portfolio is: To achieve skills-based targets with respect to mindset, position execution, market environment understanding, understanding of investing, journaling, practicing of investing and any other that you may wish to set. The following bullet point provides a sample of Risk Objectives that may suit your risk profile, but are not applicable to this portfolio: A schedule could be included here (or the next section of your Investing Plan) that details the books to be read, courses to attend, DVD s to watch, Blogs to follow, internet research to be done, etc to achieve your skills objectives. 3 INVESTING SYSTEM The SPA3ETF Equal Weighting Strategy process as described in the SPA3ETF Reference Manual will be used for ALL entry and exit signals. Positions will be opened and closed in strict accordance with the SPA3ETF Equal Weighting Strategy rules. o Positions will be executed as the SPA3ETF Entry Signals occur. o In the event of multiple entry signals occurring on the same day, positions will be chosen on a relative strength basis. o In the absence of new entry signals or missing a recent entry signal, new positions may be taken in any currently open trade providing its current price is lower than the close price of the bar one day after the original signal. That is, the current price is below the Action Price as shown in Beyond Charts and the SWS App. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 2 of 9

3 In the event where there are multiple opportunities under this scenario the following criteria will be applied: o A candidate whose price is within 2% of the ATR_TS line will be selected first. o In the instance of multiple opportunities under this scenario, priority will be given to the candidate closest to the ATR_TS line. o Candidates whose prices are more than 2% above the ATR_TS line will be selected on a Relative Strength basis where the candidate with the highest Relative Strength will be selected. o SPA3ETF Exit signals will be the sole criteria for closing a position apart from closing a position that was opened in error. In such situations, the position will be closed immediately upon the error being uncovered. A liquidity test will be applied to all potential new positions. All SPA3ETF Entry and Exit Signals will be acted upon on the following market day s open price (or close price if that suits the investors world time) at market. o This means that Market Buy and Market Sell orders will be placed before the market opens. The SAXO Capital Markets platform will be used. 3.1 ETFs traded ETFs listed on the United States markets for which the SPA3ETF signals are available will be the only instruments in which positions may be taken. The list will be confined to a subset of the SWS SPA3ETF list which can found in the Share Wealth Systems Members Zone. This portfolio will focus on just 12 ETFs, in alphabetical order: EWW (Mexico s Bolsa) EWZ (Brazil s Bovespa) FXI (China Large Cap) GLD (Gold Shares) IBB (NASDAQ Biotechnology Index) IJH (S&P400 Mid Cap) QQQ (NASDAQ100) RSP (Guggenheim Invest S&P 500 Equal weight) XLB (Materials Sector) XLF (Financial Sector) Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 3 of 9

4 XLK (Technology Sector) XLY (Consumer Discretionary Sector) 3.2 Reviewing ETFs From time to time Share Wealth systems may review which ETFs to invest in. Criteria that will be used include: 1. A major change occurs in the characteristics of the ETF. For example, the relationship between the native currency of the underlying index and the USD such as the Yuan no longer being pegged to the USD. This may not cause the FXI to be dropped off the list but should cause a review. 2. A major change in the overall market such as the onset of a secular bear market. 3. Other ETFs are added to the SPA3ETF list that, based on research, it is determined that they may offer better growth prospects. 4. A major geopolitical event in the region where one or more of the current ETFs indices reside. MDY was changed to IJH on 1 st March 2016 because: IJH can be traded commission-free with three brokers in the United States. IJH has lower annual management fees. IJH trades at a lower $ price and hence is more divisible for smaller position sizes. However, MDY is more liquid than IJH with around $500 million average daily turnover compared to around $250 million for IJH. RSP, XLB, XLF, XLK, XLY and GLD were added to the universe on 20 th March because: They create greater opportunity for exposure to a rising market. On previous occasions ETFs representing emerging markets were performing below par and were closed positions when the broader market was rising. By expanding the universe to 12 ETFs we increase the opportunity for exposure and reduce the likelihood of intermittent sub-par performance in the future. 4 RISK MANAGEMENT The overall risks to be managed are: Market Risk Liquidity Risk. 4.1 Definition of Market Risk The definition of Market Risk is: The possibility of an investor experiencing losses due to factors that affect the overall performance of financial markets. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 4 of 9

5 Market risk, also called "systematic risk," cannot be eliminated through diversification, though it can be hedged against to minimise risk. SPA3ETF will hedge against market risk by moving 100% into cash whenever all the ETFs on the list are closed positions. 4.2 Liquidity Risk No position will be taken in any ETF whose daily liquidity averaged over the prior 3 months is less than 10 x the position size of the individual position. The liquidity is calculated by using the Liq xma indicator in Beyond Charts with the x set to S for Simple Moving Average. An example is provided in the chart below where graph 3 at the bottom shows that FXI averages US$872.6 million per day as at the date of the chart and oscillates between US$550M and US$950M. 5 MONEY MANAGEMENT SPA3 TradeMaster will be used in accordance with the risk management rules described above and the money allocation parameters that follow. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 5 of 9

6 The SPA3ETF USA Equal Weighting Portfolio will be equally spread across 6 ETFs on a first come first served basis or be partially or totally in cash. 5.1 Open Positions and Risk Distribution The planned number of Open Positions will be between 0 and Money in the Market The objective is to have all capital exposed to the market with up to six of the ETFs from the list in section 3. If none of the ETFs listed in section 3 are open positions then the portfolio will be 100% in cash. 5.3 Position sizing Currently SPA3 TradeMaster doesn t support leverage for SPA3ETF. To achieve the correct leveraged position sizing, margin has to calculated manually until SPA3 TradeMaster supports leverage. US$60,000 was injected into SPA3 TradeMaster. To calculate a single leveraged position size for a new position, multiply one sixth of the Portfolio Value as if there are no open positions by 1.6. E.g. $60,000 * 1.6 = $96,000. Divide $96,000 by 6 to calculate the leveraged position size for each of the equally sized positions = $16,000. Divide the ETF price into $16,000 and round down to get the Quantity. The position Value must be less than the maximum leveraged position size of $16,000, including brokerage. When there are multiple open positions navigate to the Open Trades screen: Portfolio, Open Trades Current. The Profit $ should be subtracted from the Portfolio Value in the screenshot below to calculate the margin. Multiply the margin by 1.6 and divide by the number of positions that the Equal Weighting portfolio should have. In this portfolio it is 6. In the screenshot below, the position size for a new trade would be $69, $9, = $59, * 1.6 = $95, / 6 = $15, Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 6 of 9

7 Click on Portfolio, Current Status and ensure that the Invested: box is always less than 160%. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 7 of 9

8 5.4 Starting the Portfolio There are two ways that a new SPA3ETF US Equal Weighting portfolio can be started: 1. Each position in the portfolio can be opened when a new SPA3ETF entry signal occurs for each selected ETF. 2. To open positions in 6 of the selected ETFs that are open trades at the time that the portfolio is started. The future is unknown so depending what happens in the ensuing weeks after starting the portfolio will determine which the better option is. There is no way of knowing for sure in advance. Investors may wish to choose either provided it is documented in their Investing Plan. Being a publicly invested portfolio by Share Wealth Systems this portfolio should never miss entry signals but investors portfolios may miss entry signals due to the investor not being involved with investing at the time that they occur. Therefore, one of the two options should be decided in advance and documented in their Investing Plan. To initially start this Public Portfolio it was decided to use Option Maximum Brokerage Percentage Rule If the brokerage for any transaction is equal to or greater than 1% of the market value then the transaction will not be executed and the next on the RS list should be executed. This is highly unlikely with an ETF. 6 PROCESS MANAGEMENT The details of all trades will be entered into SPA3 TradeMaster. The above rules will be followed closely. Any deviation from the Investing Plan will be noted. If the deviation results in a modification to the Investing Plan it will be formalised. If the deviation was an error, action will be taken to ensure that it does not recur. The following statistics will be automatically updated using SPA3 TradeMaster and analysis conducted: Total profit positions versus loss positions Average profit/loss per transaction Average hold period Return of portfolio versus the S&P500 Total Return Index for the month and since the portfolio started. Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 8 of 9

9 Profit/loss percentage Maximum Drawdown % 6.1 The Daily Process Step 1 Price data update Ensure that the latest daily price data has been collected for the USA markets. Step 2 Check for an exit signal There may be between 1 and 6 open ETF trades in the portfolio. Check that all the currently open ETF positions are still open positions. This is achieved by stepping through a Watch List called SPATM SPA3ETF Portfolio US Equal Weighted for each of the charts of the open ETF positions and visually checking if an exit signal alert is displayed on the chart. If an exit signal has occurred then exit this position at the open on the following market day. Step 3 Check for entry signals This step is only required if there are < 6 open positions in the portfolio. For the particular ETFs listed in section 3, if any of them have their last signals as an Exit signal, that is, there are closed SPA3ETF positions, then check these for entry signal alerts being displayed on their charts. If an entry signal has occurred in any of them then open a position on the next market day using the Position Sizing calculation in section 5.3 Copyright Quantum Methodologies 2015 Page 9 of 9