Outright trading value slightly increased. Government bonds with 3 to 10-year tenor were popularly traded. Top ten active dealers changed.

Transcription

1 29 Vanissa Building, 21 st Floor, Soi Chidlom, Ploenchit Rd., Bangkok Tel : +66(0) Fax : +66(0) Outright trading value slightly increased. Government bonds with 3 to 10-year tenor were popularly traded. Top ten active dealers changed. Yield curve was more flat and longer up to 50-year tenor. Credit spread mostly declined. Government bond index increased. D2D transactions increased. Research & Development ext.211, 216, The information and opinions in this report are those of The Thai Bond Market Association research activity. ThaiBMA does not make any representation or warranty, express or imply, as to the fairness, accuracy, or completeness. While all reasonable care has no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such, ThaiBMA accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this report or its contents. This report is being supplied solely for informational purposes and may not be reproduced, distributed or published by recipient for any purpose.

2 Bond Trading Activities Outright trading portion decreased. Outright transactions captured 9.14% of total trading value, decreasing from 9.34% of last month. The portion of financing and others transaction was 90.86%, a little bit up from 90.66% last month. Corporate bonds outright trading value increased remarkably. Corporate bonds trading portion was 0.68%, a bit marking up from 0.65% last month. Government bond captured 8.27% of outright transactions, increasing from 7.29% last month. Meanwhile, State Agency Bonds portion captured 90.40%, decreasing from 91.07% of previous month. Government bonds with approximately 3 to 10- year tenor were popularly traded. Top five most active bonds in January were LB145A, LB155A, LB15DA, LB21DA and LB17OA. The top five most active SOE bonds were PWA263A, PEA118A, ETA114A, GHB118A and EGAT116B. For corporate bonds, the top five most active bond were TAC118A(AA-), KK129A(-), PTEP126A(AAA), TOP126A(AA-(tha)) and BAY11OA(AA- (tha). Monthly Trading Movement ThaiBMA Trading Value by Type of Bond Thai BMA Monthly Summary -1-

3 Top 5 Most Active Traded Bonds Market Participants Portion of inter dealer transactions in was March 30.23%, up from 28.24% of last month. The remaining 69.77% was the transactions between dealers and their clients. Total trading volume (outright) between dealer and clients totaled THB 1,311. bln. AMC captured 61.18% (THB bln) of market share, up from 60.99% last month. Trading activities from FCO decreased their share to 12.99% (THB bln), from 16.66%. DCO participated at 13.27% (THB bln), up from 11.98%. Ins Co shared at 2.48% (THB bln), increasing from 2.41% of the previous month. NDL group shared at 3.09% (THB bln), down from 1.77% last month. HSBC reentered to the charge of top ten active dealers while KTB disappeared this month. The top ten active dealers included BAY, BBL, CIMBT, DBBK, JPMCB, KBANK, SCB, SCBT and TMB. Thai BMA Monthly Summary -2-

4 Composition of Market Participation by Trading Value Composition of Dealer to Client Transactions Composition of Dealer to Client Transactions Top Ten Active Dealers Remark : 1) "NDL" are local financial institutions that do not have Dealer Licenses (Securities or debt securities trading license) 2) "Others" includes Social Security Funds, Government Pension Fund, Bank of Thailand, co-operative and etc. Thai BMA Monthly Summary -3-

5 Yield Curve and Spread Movement Yield curve changed variously. Yields of bond with 1-month to 1-year tenors remarkably increased 15 to 31 bps. Yields of bonds with 2- to 10-year tenors decreased 3 to 14 bps. Yields of bond with 11 to 20-year tenors marked down 8 to 22 bps. While yield of bond with 21 to 30-year maturity down 2-10 bp(s). Meanwhile, yield of bonds with 31- to 50-year maturities ended at 4.36% to 4.91%. Government bond index dropped from last month. Government bond clean price index ended at , increasing 0.42 point from the index of the previous month. Clean price index of short term subgroups (group1: 1-3 yr) increased 0.08 point to The clean price index of medium term group (group 2: 3-7 yr) added 0.37 point to The index of bond in group 3 (7-10 yr) marked down 0.02 points to while index of group 4(more than 10 yr) marked up 1.55 point to Year-to-date return of Corporate sector (BBB+ up) showed positive return of 0.68%. Corporate clean price index (BBB+ up) ended at , marking up 0.10 point from last month. Meanwhile, threemonth and six-month returns were 0.68% and 0.14% respectively. Thai BMA Monthly Summary -4-

6 Thai BMA Government Bond Yield Curve & Interpolation Government Bond Yield & Trading Value Average Yield ThaiBMA Average Government Bond Yield (%) Thai BMA Government Bond Index Bond Indices and Return Thai BMA Monthly Summary -5-

7 Thai BMA Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Corporate Debt Securities Yield Movement Spread over Government Bond Yield Corporate Yield over Government Yield Curve Remark : Issue ratings by TRIS and FITCH and Non rating (NR) are shown in the bracket. Yield on Corporate Bonds with rating of AAA Spread on Corporate Bonds with rating of AAA Thai BMA Monthly Summary -6-

8 Feature of Investment Grade Corporate Bond Thai BMA Monthly Summary -7-

9 Thai BMA Monthly Summary -8-

10 Remark : In case of no trading transactions during the month, yields quoted by active dealers will be used for calculation of duration and convexity when there is no executed yield/ price. Investment Grade Top 5 Winners (Yields) Investment Grade Top 5 Winners (Spread) Remark : In case of no trading transactions during the month, yield quoted by active dealers will be used to calculate duration, convexity, yield change and spread. Thai BMA Monthly Summary -9-

11 Yield and Spread Movement Remark : Interpolated yields are calculated from the latest quoted yields by at least 3 active dealers and only corporate bonds with no embedded options are included. Corporate Bonds Trading Value by sectors Corporate Bonds Trading Value by rating Thai BMA Monthly Summary -10-

12 Outstanding of ThaiBMA Registered Bonds Outstanding Value by Type-of-Issuers Total 6, bln Outstanding Value by Time-to-Maturity Outstanding by time to maturity THB Bln. Corporate Bond Outstanding Value by sector Corporate Bond Outstanding Value by rating Corporate Bond Outstanding Value by coupon type Thai BMA Monthly Summary

13 New Registered Bonds (during Oct-10 to Mar- 11) New Bond Auction in Apr-11 /p /p is preliminary information received at the end of Calendar for Auction and Redemption in Apr11 /p Note : LR refers to the last registered date. Thai BMA Monthly Summary

14 In April 2011, the number of new government debt securities will be valued of THB 739 bln. The Government Bonds have been totally worth THB 24 bln, Bank of Thailand bonds worth totally THB 715 bln, while the State Owned Enterprise Bonds and Treasury Bills have not been announced auction in this month. The amount of Long-term corporate bonds issued in this month is expected to reach THB 30,000 million, consisting of; Banpu Plc. (BANPU) issues 4 debentures including the 7-year, 10-year, 12- year, and 15-year debentures with the total issue size of THB 15,000 million. These debentures are paid with fixed coupon bond which payable by semi-annually. The BANPU's debentures have been assigned the issue rating at "AA-" by TRIS. And The Siam Cement Plc. (SCC) issues 4-year debentures with the issue size of THB 15,000 million. It has been determined the coupon rate 4.00% per annum. Interest is payable by quarterly. Meanwhile the commercial papers are planned to be issued by many banks and companies but none of them has announced the exact issued date and amount yet. Thus, the amount of debentures registered with ThaiBMA in April 2011 possibly decreases by THB bln. By expecting, the registered values of T- bills, BOT bonds and SOE bonds will decrease by THB 4 bln, THB bln, and THB 3.24 bln, respectively. While the registered value of Government bonds will increase by THB bln. The amount of long-term corporate bonds and Commercial papers expected to increase by THB bln and bln respectively. Thai BMA Monthly Summary

15 Thai Bond Market in Economic overview Inflation was the main risk factor for macro economy. Crude oil prices sharply hiked from unrest in the Middle East, along with a faster-than-expected of economic expansion in Asia. Headline inflation in March was 3.14% y-o-y and core inflation accelerated up to 1.62% y-o-y, in line with market expectation. The Monetary Policy decided to raise the 1-day repurchase rate by 0.25% to 2.50% p.a. to fend off inflationary pressure and reduce risk of financial imbalances in the economy. Investors expected that head line inflation would continuously increase and may be up closing to 3.5% y-o-y in next month as Thai economic data presented a growth momentum in February. As a result, they forecasted that the BOT would lift the policy rate at least 0.25% on April 20, 2011 and would raise it again on June 1, 2011 which would bring the policy rate to 3.0% in H1/ Thai Bond Market Highlight In March, increasing demand on medium to long term bonds in Thai bond market was observed. Baht-denominated bond yield curve flattened as short-term yields increased due to the perception of inflationary increasing at an accelerating rate in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Yields of short term government bond with 1-month to 1-year tenors sharply added 15 to 31 bps. Yields of bond with 2- to 9-year maturity decreased 3-11 bps and yields of bond with 10- to 14- year tenors remarkably dropped bps. Bonds with approximately 11-year maturity (LB21DA) was the bonds which got most decreasing in yield, supporting with the third biggest trading volume of THB 15.7 bln in secondary market. Total Return index in March ended at points, increasing by 157 bps from February. Government bond with 11-year tenor (LB21DA) was the strongest demand in primary market. Its Bid-Coverage-Ratio (BCR) was 3.97 times of is supply amount at THB 7.0 bil, marking up from 2.55 times of the same supply amount in January auction. The BCR of bonds with 7-year (LB17OA) and 20- year tenors (LB316A) were moderated at 2.64 and 2.41 times of its actual supply amount at THB 10.0 bil and THB 6.0 bil respectively. Meanwhile, the BCR of bonds with 4-year (LB14NA) and new L-T bond of 50-year (LB616A) were both a bit thin at 1.81 time of the supply amount at THB 8.0 bil and THB 3.5 bil respectively. The MOF planned to release government bonds auction worth THB bil in the 3 rd fiscal quarter, slightly increased from THB 94.5 bil in the 2 nd quarter. They also planned to increase an issue amount of inflation-linked bond (ILB) to THB 40.0 bln which drastically up from the previous plan of THB 5.0 bil, in order to create a new benchmark for the market. L-T corporate debentures trading value in the secondary market increased by 32.67% from last month which investors mainly focused on bond with 0.5 to 1.5 maturities. Top five most active corporate bonds were TAC118A(AA-), KK129A(-), PTEP126A(AAA), TOP126A(AA-(tha)) and BAY11OA(AA-(tha) which captured up to 27.30% of total corporate bond trading value in secondary market. Thai BMA Monthly Summary

16 NEWS New Bond Issuance Mar 30,2011 Mar 30,2011 Mar 25,2011 Mar 24,2011 Mar 16,2011 Mar 11,2011 TRIS affirms the company and issue rating of PL TRIS Rating affirms the company rating of Phatra Leasing PLC (PL) and the ratings of PL's current senior debentures consist of PL114A, PL11NA, PL126A and PL132A at "A-". At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns a "A-" rating to PL's proposed issue of up to Bt1,000 million in senior debentures. The rating outlook is revised to "positive" from "stable". (Source: TRIS Rating) TRIS affirms the company and issue ratings of TICON. TRIS Rating affirms the company and current issue ratings of TICON Industrial Connection PLC (TICON) consist of TICON115A, TICON118A and TICON128A at "A". At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns a rating of "A" to TICON's proposed issue of up to Bt500 million in senior debentures. The ratings reflect the company's leading position in the ready-built factory (RBF) industry, recurring cash flows from contractual rental income from factories and warehouses, and strong operating performance. (Source: TRIS Rating) TBANK has been affirmed the company and issue ratings by TRIS TRIS Rating affirms the ratings of Thanachart Bank PLC (TBANK) at "A+" and also affirms the ratings of TBANK's subordinated debentures and hybrid debt capital securities at "A" and "A-" consisting of TBANK155A, TBANK194A, TBANK197A, TBANK204A, and TBANK247A, respectively. At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns the "A" rating to TBANK's proposed issue of up to THB 10,000 million in subordinated debentures. The ratings reflect TBANK s stronger business profile following the acquisition of Siam City Bank PLC (SCIB), a medium-sized bank with a large and more diversified client base. (Source: TRIS Rating) TRIS affirms the company and issue ratings of BGH TRIS Rating affirms the company rating of Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PLC (BGH) and the current ratings of BGH's senior debentures at "A". At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns the rating of "A" to BGH's proposed issue of up to Bt1,000 million in senior debentures. The ratings reflect BGH's leading position as the largest private hospital operator in Thailand, strong growth in patient volume, capable physicians and an experienced management team, and high quality service. (Source: TRIS Rating) TRIS affirms the company and issue ratings of TRUE TRIS Rating affirms the company rating of True Corporation PLC (TRUE) and the ratings of TRUE's senior secured debentures (TRUE117A,TRUE144A and TRUE151A) at "BBB", and also affirms the rating of TRUE's senior debentures (TRUE13NA) at "BBB-". At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns the rating of "BBB-" to TRUE's proposed issue of up to Bt 1,800 million in senior debentures. (Source: TRIS Rating) BANPU has been affirmed the company and issue ratings by TRIS TRIS Rating affirms the company and current issue ratings of Banpu PLC (BANPU) consisting of BP125A BP145A BP15NA and BP165A at AA-. At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns the Thai BMA Monthly Summary

17 Mar 09,2011 Mar 08,2011 rating of AA- to BANPU s proposed issue of up to Bt15,000 million in senior debentures. The proceeds from the new debentures will be mainly used to refinance existing loan. (Source: TRIS Rating) ASK11907A is changed the issued amount. Asia Sermkit Leasing Plc. informed to change the issued amount of ASK11907A from THB 220 mln. to be THB 170 mln. It's effective on ThaiBMA system from now on. TRIS affirms the company and current issue ratings of MINT. TRIS Rating affirms the company and current issue ratings of Minor International PLC (MINT) at "A". The debentures of MINT that have been affirmed consist of MINT11OA, MINT129A, MINT137A, MINT149A, MINT155A, MINT15DA and MINT17DA. At the same time, TRIS Rating assigns the rating to MINT's proposed issue of up to Bt1,500 million in senior debentures at "A". The ratings reflect MINT's diverse portfolio of well-accepted brands that strengthen its market positions in its three main lines of business: hotel; quick service restaurant (QSR), and retail trading and contract manufacturing. (Source: TRIS Rating) Mar 30,2011 BE of BSL to be registered on March 30, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by BSL Leasing Co., Ltd. to be registered with ThaiBMA Bon March 30, 2011 consisting of BSL11928A is 182-day BE, worth of THB 90 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on September 28, Mar 30,2011 INGB143A and INGB163A are registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011 INGB143A and INGB163A issued by ING Bank N.V. is registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011, details are as follows; INGB143A is 3-year debentures with the issue size of THB 5,740 million. INGB143A has been determined the coupon rate 3.72% per annum. Interest is payable by semi-annaully (30/9 30/3). The issue date is March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is March 30, INGB163A is 5-year debentures with the issue size of THB 4,260 million. INGB163A has been determined the coupon rate 4.09% per annum. Interest is payable by semi-annaully (30/9 30/3). The issue date is March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is March 30, TMB Bank Plc. (TMB), Standard Chartered bank (Thai) Plc., SCBT, and Krung Thai Bank Plc. (KTB) have been assigned as the lead underwriter. Thailand Securities Depository Co.,Ltd (TSD) has been assigned as the registrar. INGB143A and INGB163A have been assigned the issue rating at "AAA(tha)" by Fith Ratings (Thailand) Limited on March 11, Mar 30,2011 BBTM informs to exercise put option on March 30, 2011 BBTM informs that the following promissory notes were exercised the put option on March 30, 2011; BBTM with the value of THB 10 mln. BBTM with the value of THB 2 mln. Mar 30,2011 BE of EASTW to be registered on March 30 and April 4, Thai BMA Monthly Summary

18 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Eastern Water Resources Development and Management Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011, consisting of EASTW11630A is 92-day BE, worth of THB 140 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on June 30, The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Eastern Water Resources Development and Management Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on April 4, 2011, consisting of EASTW11704A is 91-day BE, worth of THB 45 mln. The issue date is on April 4, 2011 and the maturity date is on July 4, Mar 30,2011 PN of TSFC to be registered on March 30, 2011 The Promissory Note (PN) issued by TSFC Securities Pcl to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011 consisting of TSFC11D25A is promissory note, worth of THB 20 mln. The issue date is on March 30, Mar 30,2011 BE of TISCOG to be registered on March 30, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by TISCO Financial Group Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011, consisting of TISCOG11629A is 92-day BE, worth of THB mln. The issue date is on March 29, 2011 and the maturity date is on June 29, Mar 30,2011 STN of DBSVT to be registered on March 30, 2011 The Structure Note (STN) issued by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co.,Ltd to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011, consisting of DBSVT11503A is Structure Note, worth of THB 5 mln.the issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on May 3, DBSVT is mandated as registrar. Mar 30,2011 S-T debentures of SCBT to be registered on March 30, 2011 The short-term debentures issued by Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) Public Company Limited to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011; consisting of SCBT11630A is 92-day short-term debentures, worth of 70 THB mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on June 30, SCBT is mandated as registrar. Mar 30,2011 BE of AYCAL to be registered on March 30, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Ayudhya Capital Auto Lease Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011; consisting of AYCAL11503A is 34-day BE, worth of THB 605 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on May 3, AYCAL11429B is 30-day BE, worth of THB 20 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 29, Mar 29,2011 BE of KTC will be registered on March 30, The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Krungthai Card Plc. will be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011,consisting of KTC11928A is 182-day BE, worth of THB 95 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on September 28, Mar 29,2011 BE of ESSO will be registered on March 30, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Esso (Thailand) Plc. will be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011 consisting of Thai BMA Monthly Summary

19 ESSO11428A is 29-day BE, worth of THB 400 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 28, ESSO11428B is 29-day BE, worth of THB 800 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 28, ESSO11428C is 29-day BE, worth of THB 500 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 28, ESSO11428D is 29-day BE, worth of THB 100 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 28, ESSO11428E is 29-day BE, worth of THB 200 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on April 28, Mar 29,2011 BE of FNS to be registered on March 29, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Finansa Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, 2011; consisting of FNS11801A is 126-day BE, worth of THB 32 mln. The issue date is on March 28, 2011 and the maturity date is August 1, Mar 29,2011 BE of ART to be registered on March 29, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Ltd. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, consisting of ART11929A is 184-day BE, worth of THB mln. The issue date is on March 29, 2011 and the maturity date is on September 29, The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Ltd. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, consisting of ART11929A is 184-day BE, worth of THB mln. The issue date is on March 29, 2011 and the maturity date is on September 29, Mar 29,2011 BE of ASK to be registered on March 29 and 30, The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Asia Sermkit Leasing Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, 2011 ; consisting of ASK11526A is 58-day BE, worth of THB 20 mln. The issue date is on March 29, 2011 and the maturity date is on May 26, 2011 The Bill of Exchange (BE) issued by Asia Sermkit Leasing Plc. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 30, 2011 ; consisting of ASK11518D is 49-day BE, worth of THB 16 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on May 18, 2011 ASK11630A is 92-day BE, worth of THB 10 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on June 30, 2011 ASK11928A is 182-day BE, worth of THB 120 mln. The issue date is on March 30, 2011 and the maturity date is on September 28, 2011 Mar 29,2011 PN of BBTM to be registered on March 29, 2011 The Promissory Note (PN) issued by Bangkok BBTM Limited to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, 2011 consisting of BBTM is promissory Note, worth of THB 190 mln. The issue date is on March 29, 2011 Mar 29,2011Mar 29,2011 BGH143A is registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, 2011 BGH143A issued by Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Plc. is registered with ThaiBMA on March 29, 2011, details are as Thai BMA Monthly Summary

20 follows; BGH143A is 3-year debentures with the issue size of THB 1,000 million. BGH143A has been determined the coupon rate 3.78% per annum. Interest is payable by semi-annaully (29/9 29/3). The issue date is March 29, 2011 and the maturity date is March 29, Kasikorn Bank Plc. (KBANK) has been assigned as the lead underwriter. TMB Bank Plc. (TMB) has been assigned as the registrar Mar 29,2011 TSFC informs to exercise put option on March 29, 2011 TSFC informs that the following promissory notes were exercised the put option on March 29, 2011; TSFC11D18A with the value of THB 30 mln. Mar 28,2011 S-T debentures of TLT will be registered on March 28, 2011 The short-term debentures issued by Toyota Leasing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. to be registered with ThaiBMA on March 28, 2011,consisting of TLT11504A is 37-day short-term debentures, worth of THB 2,500 mln. The issue date is on March 28, 2011 and the maturity date is on May 4, BAY is mandated as registrar. Thai BMA Monthly Summary