Surveyor Review of Q3 2017

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1 Q Legal & General UK Property Fund For Professional Advisers UK Property Fund Quarterly Report Surveyor Review of Q Banbury Cross Business Park As supply and demand dynamics continue to support the strong performance of industrial property assets, we examine the drivers of this growing trend and how to capitalise on this potential.

2 Growing pressure on housing supply and shifts in retail distribution patterns are contributing to both a shortage of and increased demand for industrial space, thereby driving rental growth and capital values, as investors compete to add prime industrial stock to their portfolios. Matt Jarvis Co-fund manager of Legal & General UK Property Fund BEAUTY IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER: THE RISING STAR OF SHEDS Industrial real estate has traditionally been a core component of commercial property portfolios, helping to create a diversified investment profile alongside allocations to offices, retail, and alternative assets. However, recent market shifts have led to industrial assets multi-let estates and distribution warehouses playing an increasingly important role in contributing to fund returns. The continued migration of people to our towns and cities that underpins the trend of urbanisation requires more homes. In turn, this increasing demand has created a potential opportunity to generate value for industrial land-owners through changes of use to residential accommodation. Additionally, the rise of e-commerce is changing the distribution landscape: in order to service greater numbers of people within ever shorter delivery timeframes, suppliers are moving towards a model of a larger number of smaller distribution hubs in and around areas of high-population density thereby increasing their requirements for urban and suburban industrial space. Economic laws suggest that the increasing demand for and shortening supply of industrials which has been particularly pronounced in London and across the wider South East can lead to a corresponding increase in value. The industrial sector s relative outperformance of All Property in Q by +1.9% is attributable to both strong capital value growth of 3.2% and an accretive income return of 1.2%, with occupiers having to pay higher rents to secure hotly sought-after space. The widening gap between the growth of the industrial sector at the front of the pack compared to All Property is illustrated in the chart opposite. Industrial assets with strong fundamental characteristics well-located with good transport connections; sufficient yard space; and suitable facilities for occupiers are able to command a premium; underlining that stock selection remains key to portfolio performance. The demographic trend of a growing need for industrial land to service our expanding towns and cities seems set to stay. Competition amongst investors for industrial assets has mounted putting pressure on pricing. However, we believe the L&G UK Property Fund is well positioned to take advantage of the rising star of sheds; the Fund is currently 7.5% overweight industrials (by capital value allocation) relative to the IPD UK Quarterly Balanced Property Funds Index*. As demonstrated by our recent transaction (described later on), we continue to look for attractive opportunities in this space which have the potential to further enhance the Funds portfolio. Indexed % Capital Value Growth Figure 1: Recent capital value growth in commercial property sectors vs. L&G UK Property Fund allocation to industrials** Jun Dec 2011 Jun 2011 Dec 2012 Jun 2012 Dec % Fund Industrial Allocation All industrial Jun Dec 2014 Jun 2014 Dec 2015 Jun 2015 Dec Jun All other property 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Dec Jun Fund Allocation to Industrials by Capital Value * Please note the IPD UK Quarterly Balanced PFI is not the fund s benchmark the fund s official benchmark is the Lipper Peers as stated in the performance section on page 8. The IPD PFI is an industry standard index used for comparison purposes. ** Fund allocation to industrials source: LGIM Real Assets. Indexed capital value growth source: MSCI/IPD Quarterly Property Funds Index Digest as at 30 September

3 Overview Economic overview The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 1 to 1.25% over the quarter, but Janet Yellen stole the limelight by confirming that it will begin to shrink its balance sheet in October by allowing $10 billion of bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds in the market. In Europe, Mario Draghi commented that the continuing recovery in the euro area economy is yet to translate convincingly into a sustained rise in inflation. He also signalled that the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain very cautious in unwinding its highly accommodating monetary policy of negative interest rates and asset purchases. The headline inflation rate for September came in at 1.5%, unchanged from August and remaining well below the ECB s 2% target. In the UK, inflation continued to overshoot its target. One of the largest factors increasing inflation has been the depreciation of sterling since last year s EU referendum. Governor Mark Carney commented that the UK economy remains on course for a hike in the cost of borrowing, sending short-term rates higher. For property markets, the low interest rate environment remains a powerful anchor for real estate yields; the spread on real estate relative to any form of fixed income investment is still at historically wide levels. The consensus expectation is for mid-single digit returns to the MSCI UK All Property Index over the period Whilst more modest than recent levels of performance, this continues to offer a substantial premium to risk-free rates. Yield (%) Sep-15 Figure 2: L&G UK Property Fund relative value premium 22 Dec Mar Jun Aug-16 Comparable Corporate Bond Yields* L&G UK Property Fund Income Yield** 22 Nov Feb May Aug-17 * Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Non-Gilts All Stocks Index ** Source: LGIM Real Assets 3

4 Property market over Q3 According to the Deloitte CFO survey, business confidence improved during the third quarter of 2017, following the fall over the summer after the general election. This was reflected in leasing volumes of commercial property. In central London offices, for example, take-up of space improved on levels recorded in both Q1 and Q2, whilst volumes across major regional markets also rose on the previous quarter. Analysis of deals by EGi suggests however that the number of leases signed across the whole of the UK was a third lower quarter-on-quarter. This reflects weakness in markets beyond major cities and the impact a limited number of large deals have had in driving volumes in previous quarters. Rental growth at the all-property level continued its positive upward trend over Q3, with a particular area of high performance recorded within the industrial sector, particularly led by south eastern industrials. Appreciation in rental values was weaker, although still positive, in the office and retail sectors. Values reached a plateau in the central London markets as occupiers and valuers became more concerned about the potential impact of Brexit on the traditional tenant base. Q provided the highest recorded performance since the end of Quarterly returns have been relatively stable at around 2% - 2.5% for the past year, with the annualised all-property year-to-date figure of 7.2% comfortably ahead of the latest consensus expectations. 4

5 Retail. Retail sales volumes are volatile on a monthly basis, but there is an underlying trend of steady growth against a backdrop of rising prices. Retail values continue to increase across all store types, but businesses are still grappling with a rising operational cost base from the national minimum wage and hike in business rates. Openings from new and existing retailer groups were selective over the summer; this ongoing conservative approach suggests real rental growth could be limited in the short term. However, in strong locations void rates are starting to fall back as incentives shorten, which should deliver net-effective rental growth. Value retailers continued to generate high footfall and are now regularly incorporated within the tenant mix on retail parks and in shopping centres to add diversity to schemes. Household spending on leisure pastimes remains strong, particularly on recreational activities and eating out. Office. Leasing volumes of office space surprised to the upside over the summer, with London take-up running above average, whilst provisional leasing data for major UK cities increase by around a third on Q2. This suggests there is still wide-spread, strong demand for office space, despite the political uncertainty. The supply-side picture is more complicated. According to market commentator PMA annual development commencements beyond London were running -35% behind the 15-year average, but within London are running 19% ahead. Overall supply of stock on the market increased over the quarter, which is reflected in the vacancy rate for UK office markets increasing to 6.9% from 6.7% last quarter, and 6.1% a year ago. Increases in stock on the market were mainly recorded in the South East, but going forward we would expect to see more completed stock coming on to the market in London. Industrial. The economic drivers of the industrial market continue to be supportive. The volume of physical goods exported from the UK fell over the three months to August when compared to the previous period, but rose 0.3% in value terms as the weaker sterling boosted revenues. Manufacturing output also recovered from a fall in Q2, whilst e-commerce output (a key tenant group for the sector) grew 14% over the year to September. Figure 3: MSCI IPD quarterly property performance, Q Quarterly performance, Q Total Return Income Return Capital Return All Property 2.5% 1.2% 1.3% Offices 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% Industrials 4.4% 1.2% 3.1% Retail 1.9% 1.3% 0.5% Source: MSCI IPD Q Quarterly Digest 5

6 Legal & General UK Property Fund REVIEW OF THE QUARTER The fund delivered positive returns in the third quarter of the year, continuing to recover strongly in the wake of the EU referendum vote. The fund remains overweight to cash but is making progress with acquisitions activity. Q During the quarter, we completed on the purchase of Exe Bridges Retail Park in Exeter for 31 million. The asset is a high-quality, edge-of-city centre retail park that is let to strong tenants and offering a yield of 6.2%. In addition, the fund has completed on the acquisition of a Tesco superstore in Kettering for 52m. The asset is let to Tesco for 12 years with annual RPI indexation in the rents. It is a dominant store, and whilst over-rented this is reflected in the relatively high yield of 5.85%. 6

7 Asset allocation Geographic breakdown Sector breakdown 7.1% 14.0% London 7.1% 18.6% 23.6% South East 23.6% 10.8% South West East 4.1% 3.2% Midlands / Wales North England / Scotland Cash REITs / Derivatives 4.8% 2.6% 21.9% 19.0% 18.2% 21.4% Retail Office Industrial Leisure Alternatives Cash REITs / Derivatives Top 10 holdings, sector and lot size Asset Sector Lot size ranges Lichfield - Fradley Park Distribution Warehouses 130m - 140m Leeds - Birstall Shopping Park, Birstall Retail Parks 100m - 110m London - 15 Bonhill Street & 18, 20 & 22 Epworth Street Offices - City 90m - 100m Birmingham - One Colmore Square Offices - Rest UK 80m - 90m Gateshead - Follingsby Park Industrials - Rest of UK 60m - 70m London - Priestley Way,Staples Corner, Industrials - South East 60m - 70m Cambridge - 214, 216, 240, 220 And 230 Cambridge Science Park Office Parks 50m - 60m Kettering - Tesco Retail Parks 50m - 60m Stafford - Argos - Acton Gate Distribution Centre Distribution Warehouses 40m - 50m Dumbarton - St James Retail Park, Glasgow Road Retail Parks 40m - 50m 10 Largest Properties as a % of fund (value) 26.76% Top 10 tenants Top 10 tenants Contracted rent (% fund) Tesco Stores Limited 3.13% Waitrose Limited 2.85% Jvckenwood U.K. Limited 2.67% Procter & Gamble Technical Centres Ltd 2.59% Argos Limited 2.58% Newell Rubbermaid Uk Services Ltd 2.12% Leonardo Mw Ltd 1.92% Tradeteam Limited 1.81% Next Holdings Limited 1.75% Ernst & Young Llp 1.73% Total (Sum of all leases by contracted rent) 23.14% Source for all: LGP, IMA, Lipper. 7

8 Fund performance Key facts Key facts Fund size 2.78 billion Number of direct properties 94 Average lot size Cash million million Source: LGP. As at 30 September Annualised fund performance Annualised Return (%) 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 8.9% 7.9% 7.1% 7.3% 5.9% 4.8% 3.4% 2% 1% 0% 0.7% Legal & General UK Property Fund Lipper Peers Source: LGIM, Lipper as at 30 September Past performance is not a guide to future performance, and may not be repeated. Note: Lipper Peers are key comparable UK funds that primarily invest directly in UK commercial property assets: median, annualised. Legal & General UK Property Fund shows I class total return net of fees. Yields Legal & General UK Property fund Net initial yield 4.97% Void rate (excluding development) 4.36% Historic yield - I class 3.00% Source: LGIM as at 30 September

9 Transactions: Case study The Fund recently purchased a prime industrial estate with ancillary offices at Staples Corner in North West London for c. 52 million. Due to a dwindling supply of industrial space (particularly in London and the wider South East) and growing occupier demand, industrial rents have soared and the sector has been outperforming. Whilst increased investor appetite for industrials has put pressure on pricing, the fund secured this asset for a net initial yield of 6.15%; an attractive yield premium over comparable prime Greater London assets. Staples Corner is a well-established commercial location with advantageous road and rail infrastructure connections and a diverse range of industrial, office and retail warehousing commercial operators. The location is also set to benefit from the 4.5 billion Brent Cross Cricklewood regeneration plan, which covers a 350-acre area immediately northeast of the property and will deliver 7,500 new homes, four million square feet of office space, improved transport links, and the extension of the Brent Cross shopping centre over the next 20 years. This will further improve the catchment area and the appeal of the Fund s new industrial estate to a broad spectrum of occupiers. On acquisition the estate was let to a multi-national electronics company with an average unexpired lease term of 8.25 years and strong prospects for rental growth. The site was fully occupied and 85% sub-let to a variety of tenants, providing the Fund with the opportunity to unlock significant value through lease engineering and active asset management. Following negotiations with the existing occupier, the Fund took a surrender on 60,000 square feet across two warehouses on the site for an 800,000 premium, and simultaneously secured a new 20 year lease to Selco with valuable inflation-linked rent reviews included annually. This deal has created in excess of 10 million in net added value for the Fund, equating to an increase of 20% on purchase price in less than three months of ownership. 9

10 Outlook Year-to-date market returns to September 2017 have been 7.2% at the All Property level, led convincingly by the industrial sector and alternative property uses. If the current level of momentum is maintained into the final quarter of the year, this could lead to a market total return of around 10% for calendar This would imply upside risk against the most recent published consensus expectation of 6.7%. Brexit continues to dominate newsflow, with many issues that require clarification before negotiations on future trade can commence and transitional arrangements agreed. The forecast slowdown in economic growth is expected to convert into more modest tenant demand, and thus rental growth over the next one-to-two years. The risk of widespread reductions in rents is mitigated by the modest volume of construction activity in most locations and sectors, with London offices being an important exception in the market. Hedges can be explicit or implicit. Explicit hedges can take the form of exposure to long-term, index-linked income. This long-term income creates a bond-like cashflow that weathers weak occupier market conditions. Indexation provides protection against either the demand-pull inflation seen in economic booms or supply-push inflation seen in stagflationary environments. Occupier fundamentals continue to improve in the standard industrial sector, with no immediate signs that requirements are set to drop back dramatically or that supply is increasing out of pace with demand. Rental growth should outperform the market average in the immediate term. Supply of logistics sheds remains above the long-term average and may dampen performance further out. The investor challenge is to balance the potential wide range of market outcomes, not least due to the potential volatility caused by the Brexit process. A hedging approach could balance resilience against downside while retaining sufficient growth potential in portfolios to deliver in more benign environments. 10

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12 CONTACT US For further information about our UK Property Fund, please contact us: * lgim.com Important Notice This is not a consumer advertisement. It is intended for professional financial advisers and should not be relied upon by private investors or any other persons. This document should not be taken as an invitation to deal in any Legal & General investments including the stated investments. Remember, the value of investments and any income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than they invest. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of property is generally a matter of valuer s opinion rather than fact. *Call charges will vary. Legal & General Unit Trusts are brought to you by Legal & General (Unit Trust Managers) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Q /17 H162899