CEE Capital Markets & Fixed Income Trading Ideas. September, 2014 Zachary Carvell, Head of Institutional Solutions & Product Management
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1 & Fixed Income Trading Ideas September, 2014 Zachary Carvell, Head of Institutional Solutions & Product Management
2 Some people are scared of spiders August 14 2
3 ..some people are scared of mice.. August 14 3
4 ..& others are scared of things that go bump in the night August 14 4
5 ..& others well, they`re just scared August 14 5
6 Some of us combat our fear by living in denial August 14 6
7 but some of us are so short-sighted August 14 7
8 that we miss the obvious. August 14 8
9 Some would say.. August 14 9
10 Some of us are simply fearless... August 14 10
11 ...& others are just plain stupid! August 14 11
12 What scared you most this year? August 14 12
13 Boo! August 14 13
14 Is it really so bad? August 14 14
15 What should we be looking out for? August 14 15
16 Some things are essential for success August 14 16
17 Complacency is not one of them August 14 17
18 Because We`ve Seen This (the carry trade). Spread US 10Y SPG 10Y , ,5 100 YtM in % 3 2, Spread in BPs 1, , Source: Bloomberg August 14 18
19 . quickly become this (the safe haven trade)! Spread US 10Y SPG 10Y YtM in % Spread in BPs Source: Bloomberg August 14 19
20 Do You Remember This? Source: Bloomberg August 14 20
21 The Taper Tantrum! August 14 21
22 It Was More Than That for Turkey Source: Bloomberg August 14 22
23 And This Time It Looked Even More Serious for Romania Source: Bloomberg August 14 23
24 Until It Didn`t Anymore Source: Bloomberg August 14 24
25 Client Behaviour End of July w/w Volume Change client sells client buys total credit -19% 72% 18% govie 70% 3% 30% total 20% 28% 24% Volume Change client sells client buys total BBG 7% 30% 20% OTC 26% 25% 25% total 20% 27% 24% Change in Ticket Size client sells client buys total credit 34% 51% 54% govie 68% 25% 43% total 69% 30% 53% Change in # client sells client buys total credit -39% 14% -23% govie 1% -18% -9% total -29% -2% -19% Change in Ticket Size client sells client buys total BBG 74% 30% 59% OTC 11% 35% 21% total 69% 29% 52% Change in # client sells client buys total BBG -39% 1% -25% OTC 13% -7% 3% total -29% -2% -19% Clients bought credit (risk), sold govies (safe). Overall volumes & the average ticket size increased (confidence). The number of sell inquiries fell 29% overall driven by a 39% drop in credit sell inquiries. The number of buy inquiries fell 18% in govies. Volumes grew most on the automatic trading platform where clients were buying (best execution) Ticket size grew most on the automatic trading platform where clients were selling The number of inquiries on BBG fell 25%. August 14 25
26 Client Behaviour Beginning of August w/w Volume Change client sells client buys total credit 10% -39% -18% govie 57% -6% 28% total 40% -22% 8% Volume Change client sells client buys total BBG 21% -43% -17% OTC 48% -10% 20% total 40% -22% 8% Change in Ticket Size client sells client buys total credit 12% -35% -16% govie 2% 12% 6% total 17% -14% 1% Change in # client sells client buys total credit -1% -5% -3% govie 55% -16% 21% total 19% -10% 6% Change in Ticket Size client sells client buys total BBG 9% -32% -15% OTC 6% -17% -5% total 18% -14% 2% Change in # client sells client buys total BBG 11% -16% -2% OTC 40% 9% 27% total 19% -10% 6% Client bids for credit dropped 39% (stop buying). Client volumes looking to sell govies rose 57% (sell what you can). The average ticket size from clients looking to buy credit fell 35%. The number of buy inquiries fell 10% overall and rose by 55% in govies where clients were looking to sell. The number of buy inquiries fell 18% in govies. Volumes fell on the automatic trading platform where volumes related to clients who were buying collapsed by 43%. OTC volumes rose with a 48% jump in volumes related to clients looking to sell govies (any execution) Ticket size fell on the automatic trading platform where clients were buying by 32% and in OTC by 17%. Ticket size for sellers increased on both platforms (loss of confidence). The number of inquiries in OTC from clients looking to sell govies rose 40%. August 14 26
27 They Didn t See it Coming? August 14 27
28 Some You Win, Some You Lose But Mostly You Don`t Source: Bloomberg August 14 28
29 Sovereign Underperformers 1st Week of August Long Duration Lower Rated Source: Bloomberg August 14 29
30 Sovereign Outperformers 1st Week of August Long Duration Higher Rated Source: Bloomberg August 14 30
31 That s the Safe Haven Trade NOT the Taper Tantrum Source: Bloomberg August 14 31
32 But NOT Always (in 5 months out of 8 it s the carry trade) Source: Bloomberg August 14 32
33 And YtD Within Markets Too (Curve Carry Trade) Short Duration All Ratings Long Duration All Ratings Source: Bloomberg August 14 33
34 Czech Republic Source: Bloomberg August 14 34
35 Hungary Source: Bloomberg August 14 35
36 Romania Source: Bloomberg August 14 36
37 Poland Source: Bloomberg August 14 37
38 Irrespective of Currency Source: Bloomberg August 14 38
39 16 of worst performers were short duration YtD Short Duration All Ratings Source: Bloomberg August 14 39
40 19 of best performers were long duration Long Duration All Ratings Source: Bloomberg August 14 40
41 So Long Duration And Higher Rating in LCY? Higher Rating Higher Return Lower Volatility Source: Bloomberg August 14 41
42 Or Long Duration And Lower Rating in FX? Lower Rating Higher Return Higher Volatility Source: Bloomberg August 14 42
43 It Depends Where You Come From Higher Rating Lower Return Lower Volatility Source: Bloomberg August 14 43
44 What Would You Choose? CZGB /29/21 ROMGB ROMGB in CZK CZGB in RON Return (Price) 7,0% 5,2% 8,4% 3,9% Volatility 2,3% 2,9% 4,1% 1,3% Sharp Ratio 3,03 1,77 2,06 3,08 Source: Bloomberg August 14 44
45 Don t Worry. Whatever You Chose, It Was Wrong Longest Duration Highest Rating RAGB /26/62 CZECH 3⅞ 05/24/2022 Return (Price) 30,8% 7,0% Volatility 9,24 2,26 Sharp Ratio 3,330 3,109 Source: Bloomberg August 14 45
46 August 14 46
47 THIS was supposed to be the year when normal service resumed in the global economy and markets. As the recovery picked up steam, shares were expected to continue their rally and government bonds were projected to lose value [..], according to the consensus view. But that is not what has happened. As of August 11th the Dow Jones Industrial Average was fractionally down on the year [..] and there were losses for the FTSE 100 in Britain, the CAC 40 in France, the DAX in Germany and the Topix 500 in Japan. Government-bond yields were testing historic lows, particularly in Germany, where the ten-year yield had dropped to 1.06% from 1.93% at the end of 2013; the yield on the equivalent Treasury bond had fallen to 2.42% from 3.03%. The Economist, Aug 16th 2014 August 14 47
48 Why? Over the past five years, the effect of centralbank policy has been to make valuations seem almost irrelevant. A poll by the society for British chartered financial analysts found that 55% of investors believed equities in rich countries were overvalued. However, that still made shares better than the most common alternatives: government bonds (75% thought those were too pricey) and corporate bonds (72% felt they were overvalued). The Economist, Aug 16th 2014 August 14 48
49 You Have Nothing to Fear but..greed! August 14 49
50 The path ahead might be strewn with more than just a few road-bumps August 14 50
51 ..if we run out of liquidity! August 14 51
52 Play It Safe But Not Too Safe Biggest Bank in Italy Largest Player in CEE Subordinated Debt Liquid Split Rating Source: Bloomberg August 14 52
53 Disclaimer This Document was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG and/or its affiliate named herein (collectively the Erste Group ) as marketing communication to our professional clients. This document is not issued to, nor intended for private customers. It has been provided for general information and is not to be construed as a personal investment advice or recommendation; an offer to buy or sell; solicitation or recommendation of any offer to subscribe, to buy or sell or to participate in any financial product referred to herein (the Financial Instrument ) or to engage in any trading strategy involving them. If a transaction is entered into, the terms and conditions will be fully reflected in the final documentation, which will supersede and replace this document in its entirety. All information, terms and pricing set forth herein is indicative, based on, among other things, market conditions at the time of this writing and is subject to change without notice. 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Additional information can be obtained from Erste Group upon request. This Document is based on the level of knowledge of the person entrusted with their compilation on the date of its preparation. The Document should not be regarded as financial, legal, tax, regulatory or other advice. It is not construed as financial analysis under WAG Any statement herein is non-binding and without any obligation. Erste Group is not responsible for printing or typographical errors. Erste Group August 14 Page 53
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