Monthly European ETF Market Trends 2013 in brief

Transcription

1 LYXOR ETF BAROMETER JANUARY 214 Monthly European ETF Market Trends 213 in brief Lyxor ETF Marlène Hassine Head of ETF Research marlene.hassine@lyxor.com 213 has been another strong year for ETF in Europe. Assets Under Management have reached all time high at EUR287bn with an increase of 21% in line with European ETF 5 year CAGR. NET NEW ASSETS (NNA) in 213 in Europe amount to EUR16.7bn, representing a third of the yearly AUM increase. The expected great rotation between assets has not taken place in 213 as fixed income flows are in line with last year at EUR8bn even if equity flows are higher than last year of EUR14.3bn vs. 11.2bn in 212. Contents European ETFs in 213 Net Inflows (EURM) Developed Equities Emerging Market Equities European Equities FIXED INCOME European Debt Market European Credit Market Emerging Market Debt p1 p2 p2 p3 n Inflows in 213 have been dominated by developed countries equities indexations of EUR16.7bn. Emerging Equity and Commodities have experienced the strongest outflows of EUR3.7bn and EUR5.5bn respectively. Money Market ETFs have also experienced strong outflows that have been more than partially compensated by inflows on enhanced cash ETFs. Interestingly inflows on fixed income ETFs have been concentrated on European govies backed by a significant reduction in Eurozone systemic risk. n The US economic reflation theme has driven major inflows into US equities all along 213 of EUR5.2bn but these inflows have halted since August 213. n 213 is also the year of a return of European investors to Japan with inflows of EUR4.5bn, fueled by the new Abenomics policy, the easing monetary policy of the Japan Central Bank and the availability of currency hedged ETFs. n European equity indexations have started to benefit in H2 213 from ongoing fiscal consolidation, the banking union project and an accommodative central bank in Europe. Inflows have accelerated in H2 213 to reach EUR2.9bn YTD, after EUR1.2bn of outflows in H n Due to a low yield environment and attractive equity valuations, yield search & value style investments have been the other key topics in 213, with dividend, high yield and Emerging Market debt on one side and value theme, financial sector and European peripheral country equities on the other side gathering a total of EUR 7.4bn of inflows YTD. ETFS IN 213 NET INFLOWS (EURM) STRONG INFLOWS IN DEVELOPED REBOUND IN H2 213 NNA Directive 24/39/EC. It is not European ETF Market NNA 16,744 Jan 4,68 Developed Market Equities 16,749 Feb 1,675 of wh. U.S. 5,537 Mar 222 of wh. Japan 4,489 Apr of wh. Europe ,892 Emerging Market Equities May -3,738 1,185 Monthly Average Global Equities 1,27 Jun - 1,531 Europe Govies 4,5 Jul 3,72 U.S. Govies 969 Aug 454 Emerging Markets Govies 1,31 Sep 1,9 Corporate Bonds 263 High Yield Oct 2,868 1,76 Money Market -738 Nov 2,313 Commodities -5,47 Dec 1,615-1, 1, 2, - 2, 2, 4, 6, Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/213 to 31/12/213, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU. ETF.RESEARCH@LYXOR.COM I +33 ()

2 LYXOR ETF BAROMETER JANUARY 214 DEVELOPED Announced changes in Fed policy have brought US inflows for European investors to a halt since August after a very strong start of the year. Positive US economy recovery data have triggered a revival in December. Since August 213 outflows equals to EUR31M after more than EUR4.3bn of inflows until July. Japanese investments have been consistent and significant all over the year rather decorrelated from the rest of the flows. After a halt in August the trend is again on the rise in line with the continued easing monetary policy. MASSIVE INFLOWS ON US EQUITY ETFS IN H1 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON US EQUITY ETFS 2, 1,5 1, CONSISTENT FLOWS IN JAPAN ETFS ALL OVER THE YEAR MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON JAPAN EQUITY ETFS 1,2 1, EMERGING Since the first announcement of the Fed tapering, Emerging equities have significantly suffered. The small rebound since September, triggered by the focus of the Fed toward forward guidance of low interest rates next year, has been short lived with significant outflows in December. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS ON EMERGING ETFS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING EQUITY ETFS 1,5 1, , -1,5 ERRATIC REBOUND IN H2 213 OF EMERGING ASIA EQUITY MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING ASIA EQUITY ETFS Directive 24/39/EC. It is not -2, -5 Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/213 to 31/12/213, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU. ETF.RESEARCH@LYXOR.COM I +33 ()

3 LYXOR ETF BAROMETER JANUARY 214 After EUR1.2bn of outflows in H1 213, flows have been positive (EUR4.1bn) in H2 213, reflecting an improvement in the economic environment and more positive trends in the domain of structural reforms. STRONG INFLOWS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS IN H2 213 MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE EQUITY ETFS 1,5 1, , -1,5 MASSIVE OUTFLOWS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON GERMAN EQUITY ETFS , -1,5-2, -2,5-2, -3, The aggregate market picture masks high heterogeneity among countries. Germany has seen significant outflows in H Flows in peripheral countries have rebound significantly together with the flows on the European region as a whole, benefiting from the accommodative monetary policy. POSITIVE FLOWS ON SPAIN & ITALY MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON PERIPHERAL EUROPE EQUITY ETFS AND ON THE REGION AS A WHOLE MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE REGION EQUITY ETFS 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5-2, Two other themes have dominated the European market in 213: the style investment with Small & Mid cap gathering significant inflows in H2 213; the dividend theme has also been consistent all over the year totaling EUR1.4bn. POSITIVE TREND IN H2 213 IN SMID CAP MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON SMALL & MID CAP EUROPE EQUITY ETFS CONSISTENT INFLOWS IN 213 IN DIVIDEND ETFS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON DIVIDEND EQUITY ETFS Directive 24/39/EC. It is not Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/213 to 31/12/213, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU. ETF.RESEARCH@LYXOR.COM I +33 ()

4 LYXOR ETF BAROMETER JANUARY 214 FIXED INCOME DEBT Low interest rates have triggered significant outflows from Money market ETFs that have been nearly compensated by inflows on new enhanced cash products: respectively EUR 2.1bn of outflows vs EUR1.4bn of inflows. European govies have attracted significant interest all along 213 as BCE policy kept yield on a downward trend. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS IN 213 IN MONEY MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON MONEY EUROPE ETFS CONSISTENT FLOWS ON GOVIES ALL OVER THE YEAR MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EUROPE GOVIES ETFS CREDIT High yield inflows have rebounded in H2 213 backed by strong demand for yield opposite to what happened in the corporate bond market where already tight spreads have triggered some outflows. LIMITED BUT ACCELERATED OUTFLOWS ON CORPORATE BONDS MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON CORPORATE BOND ETFS MORE POSITIVE FLOWS IN H2 213 IN HIGH YIELD MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON HIGH YIELD BOND ETFS EMERGING DEBT Despite fears of Fed tapering, investments into Emerging debt have been significant this year as investors were searching for yield in the current low interest rate environment. SIGNIFICANT INFLOWS ALL ALONG THE YEAR IN EM DEBT MONTHLY NET NEW ASSETS ON EMERGING DEBT ETFS 6 4 Directive 24/39/EC. It is not Sources: Monthly data in EURM from 2/1/213 to 31/12/213, Bloomberg, Lyxor BIU. ETF.RESEARCH@LYXOR.COM I +33 ()

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