RMB7.05tr. RMB16.07tr. RMB887bn. China Mutual Fund Series: Quarterly Assessment (2Q15) Records broken on all fronts. Record high public MF AUM
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1 China Mutual Fund Series: Quarterly Assessment (2Q15) Records broken on all fronts Record high public MF AUM Record high industry AUM RMB7.05tr RMB16.07tr The total AUM of the mainland public mutual fund industry hit RMB7.05tr at the end of 2Q15, beating the previous high of RMB5.15tr in 1Q15. However, with stock market volatility continuing into the next quarter, investors are retreating from active equity funds. We expect that the AUM for public mutual funds will decline to approximately RMB6.9tr by the end of 3Q15. For the first time, AMAC released AUM figures for FMC non-core business showing that FMC parent SA business totaled RMB2.9tr and FMC subsidiary AUM hit RMB6.1tr, making total industry an impressive RMB16tr by the end of Q2. Despite market volatility, Z- Ben Advisors believes that total industry AUM will continue to slowly increase to RMB17tr at the end of 2015, fuelled by this non-core business. Record high quarterly fundraising Record high personnel turnover RMB887bn 295 2Q15 witnessed the highest quarterly FMC fundraising in history, almost four times higher than in 1Q15. Despite RMB200bn-worth of injections from CSF in July, investors are more reluctant to invest in the public mutual funds, many having been burned by volatility. Z-Ben Advisors estimates the new fundraising figure in 3Q15 to be less than half that of this quarter, likely around RMB320bn. Turnover has been a longstanding problem in the MF industry, and it came to a head in Q2, with a record number of both PMs and senior management fleeing their posts, drawn by better incentives elsewhere. Private funds and brokerage AMs were some of the main destinations of these departing PMs, as they raised remuneration when the market was performing well to attract talent to expand their business.
2 Table of contents 1. Market Review Regulatory updates 4 Industry AUM 5 Industry AUM 6 2. Organic growth 7 New products 8 Product pipeline assessment 9 Distribution 10 Performance 11 Allocation 12 Themed funds remain a popular strategy 13 Parent non-core: EA, NCSSF 14 Classified fund (Long-only) FMC non-core: Overview 16 People moves 17 ChinaAMC and HFT impacted by CSRC punishments 18 Bank-backed FMCs 19 Bank-backed FMCs 20 Third-party online payment platforms 21 MRF may fill gaps in FMC QDII business Competitive Landscape Industry AUM 23 Breakdown 24 Public mutual funds market share change 25 Organic fund flows.. 26 Performance 27 Fundraising 28 People moves 29 Public mutual funds (ex. MMF) 30 Public mutual funds (all funds) 31 Parent non-core: Segregated accounts 32 FMC subsidiary I: Market share, 2Q15 34 II: JV matrix, 2Q15 35 III: New product offerings, 2Q15 37 IV: Top and bottom bond performers, 2Q15 44 V: Top and bottom equity performers, 2Q15 45 VI: Top and bottom QDII performers, 2Q15 46 VII: Domestic FMCs, 2Q15 47 VIII: Sino-foreign FMCs, 2Q15 48
3 Public mutual funds (excluding MMFs and short-term bond funds) AUM for the mainland mutual fund industry increased 55%, when excluding MMFs and short-term bond funds. The Q1 rankings were shaken up as Fullgoal and Penghua moved into 1 st and 3 rd, replacing ChinaAMC and Harvest which dropped town to 4 th and 5 th. These drops can be attributed to their heavy concentration in index funds. Given market conditions in late June, these firms suffered from relatively large outflows. However, E Fund still retained its position in the top three, due to the diversification and flexibility of its product line which allowed it to maneuver capture investor demand. Continuation of this strategy into Q3 will be key to maintaining its position. Industry market share ranking (ex-mmfs and short-term bond funds), 2Q15 7% Fullgoal achieved a growth of 194bps. The firm s rapid expansion was mainly due to its two mega-size classified* index funds, Fullgoal CSI National Defense Industry Classified Index Fund and Fullgoal CSI SOEs Reform Classified Index Fund, which accounted for over RMB50bn in fundraising each. 1Q15 2Q15 Two traditionally successful FMCs, ChinaAMC and Harvest, have been losing market share since 4Q14. ChinaAMC s market share dropped by 241bps while Harvest suffered a decline of 190bps. In the former case, the CSRC punishment suspending new product registrations had a severely negative 5% impact on the company. Essence s market share increased by 109bps, representing the third largest growth in 2Q15. Essence achieved outstanding organic inflows, notably for its balanced funds for which the AUM increased eight-fold. 4% 2% 0% Fullgoal Source: Z-Ben Advisors Penghua ChinaAMC Guotai Yinhua UBS SDIC Zhong Ou China Merchants Bosera Rongtong Essence BoCom Schroders Lion China Post & Capital Qianhai Kaiyuan Zhonghai Chang Xin CIB Everbright Pramerica ABC-CA Golden Eagle Wanjia Tebon Western Leadbank Huafu Xinyuan Hongta Hotland Caitong Yimin Hongde JT Jiangxin Zheshang AM CDBS Cathay *See page 15
4 Public mutual funds (including all funds) Total public MF AUM expanded 32% in 2Q15. Among the top ten FMCs by AUM, retained its first place despite Yu E Bao losses, but it has much less of a lead than in Q1. Fullgoal and Penghua rapidly climbed the ranks owing to the success of their classified* offerings, targeted to meet investor demand when the market was strong. Among the Big Four bank-backed FMCs, ICBC Credit Swiss and BOC remained relatively stable, but CCB Principal dropped out of the top ten. ABC-CA, however, remains among the mid-tier FMCs. During strong market performance, banks operate a more open architecture, delegating business to multiple parties, not only their partners. Industry market share ranking, 2Q15 10% 8% still ranks first in terms of market share, way out ahead of the competition. However, in comparison to the previous quarter, its market share dropped by nearly 500bps due to Yu E Bao s AUM decline. This indicates that market concentration was reduced in 2Q15. Market share incl. MMF Market share excl. MMF and short-term bond funds BOC and China Merchants dropped out of the top ten. Nevertheless, this does not necessarily indicate that they failed to execute successful strategies, but rather that the competition among top FMCs became much more fierce in the hot stock market. 5% 3% ABC-CA has been stuck among the mid-tier FMCs for quite a few quarters. Although ABC is one the largest domestic banks, it does not effectively support its FMC to improve fundraising performance. It is likely that ABC-CA has not been operating the most effective strategies to take advantage of market conditions or product trends. 0% E Fund Fullgoal Penghua BOC CCB Principal China International Yinhua Hua An Fortune SG Lion Rongtong Huatai-PineBridge Invesco Great Wall GTJA Allianz CITIC-Prudential Galaxy HFT Zhonghai China Life AMP New China Zhongrong Harfor Morgan Stanley Huaxin PING AN-UOB ChangAn Huafu China Nature HSBC Jintrust Zheshang Yimin Beixin Ruifeng Lord Abbett China Maxwealth Huarong Securities Taikang AM Source: Z-Ben Advisors *See page 15
5 Industry AUM AMAC released 2Q15 total industry AUM figures at the manager level, including non-core business, revealing the true gargantuan size of the sector as RMB16tr. FMCs which have a larger proportion of their AUM in public mutual funds do not necessarily have a high total AUM relative to peers which have shifted their focus from public mutual funds into non-core business. Examples of non-public specialists include China Merchants, Minsheng Royal and Ping AN UOB. Bank-backed or trust-backed FMCs are more likely to have large subsidiary AUMs due to their natural advantage in distribution which supports them to conduct more channel/packaging businesses. FMC total AUM breakdown, 2Q15 (RMB bn) 1,000 ranked top in terms of total AUM, including SA and subsidiary business. Its total AUM reached nearly RMB950bn, RMB200bn more than China Merchants in second place. The major source of s AUM came from its public mutual fund business, accounting for over 70%. Notably, Yu E Bao contributed approximately 65% of its total AUM. MF Subsidiary SA 750 Minsheng Royal, Ping An-UOB and Rongtong were all in the top 15. However, their non-core business contributed as their main source of AUM. Thanks to their major shareholders being the likes of Minsheng Bank and Ping An Trust, these FMCs have strong distribution networks at their fingertips. 500 China International and Fortune SG were both ranked in the top 20 by public mutual fund AUM. Their non-core business only made up a tiny proportion of AUM, meaning they were unable to compete with the top group. China International established a subsidiary in 1Q15 but will need more time before it can grow its business ICBC Credit Suisse ChinaAMC E Fund PING AN-UOB CCB Principal GF CITIC-Prudential BOC AXA-SPDB Guotai Xinyuan Hua An SWS MU Wanjia China International Caitong HFT BOB-Scotiabank China Post & Capital ChangAn Great Wall China Life AMP Qianhai Kaiyuan Golden Eagle Harfor Goldstate Capital Donghai China Fund Source: Z-Ben Advisors, AMAC Franklin Templeton Sealand Western Leadbank CR Yuanta Zheshang Beixin Ruifeng Jiangxin CDBS Cathay JYAH AM
6 Breakdown As the AUM breakdown below shows, the asset base of traditional industry leaders such as, Fullgoal, GF and China Universal remains dominated by public mutual fund business. The non-core business of such firms generally accounts for less than 40% of their AUM. On the other hand, Minsheng Royal, Ping AN-UOB, CITIC-Prudential, CIB and BOSC are focusing their attention on developing non-core business. As trust companies are increasingly constrained by tighter regulatory oversight and capital requirements, they are using the channel provided by their FMC subsidiaries to expand their channel/packaging business. FMC total AUM breakdown, 2Q15 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% ICBC Credit Suisse ChinaAMC E Fund PING AN-UOB CCB Principal GF CITIC-Prudential BOC AXA-SPDB Guotai Xinyuan Hua An SWS MU Wanjia China International Caitong HFT BOB-Scotiabank China Post & Capital ChangAn Great Wall Source: Z-Ben Advisors, AMAC MF SA Subsidiary The different structure in total AUM breakdown represents the different business strategies of FMCs. Traditional household names such as ChinaAMC, Harvest, E Fund and Fullgoal have a high proportion of AUM in public mutual funds thanks to their first mover advantage. The FMCs view non-core business is just a source of extra income. However, other trust-backed and bank-backed FMCs have better access to leverage channel/packaging business and thus so-called non-core business has become core business for them. China Life AMP Qianhai Kaiyuan Golden Eagle Harfor Goldstate Capital Donghai China Fund Franklin Templeton Sealand Western Leadbank CR Yuanta Zheshang Beixin Ruifeng Jiangxin CDBS Cathay JYAH AM
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