Oil Prices and the Global Economy. Steven B. Kamin Federal Reserve Board March 10, 2008
|
|
- Aileen Stafford
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Oil Prices and the Global Economy Steven B. Kamin Federal Reserve Board March 10,
2 Outline of talk Potential effects of rising oil prices on inflation and economic activity Address why effects have been more benign in 2000s than in 1970s Effects of rising oil prices on external imbalances Implications for global capital flows, financial markets, and asset prices 3 I. Potential Effects of Oil Prices on Inflation and Growth 4
3 Effect depends on what pushes up oil prices Demand shock: Rising demand for oil Supply shock: Exogenous decline in oil production Assume shock is exogenous supply cut Supply shocks boost prices, contract economic activity 5 How an oil shock boosts prices Energy key production input Higher energy costs raise overall production costs 6
4 How an oil shock depresses output Raises costs and lowers profits Uncertainty about future costs lowers investment Shifts income away from oil-importing importing countries Spending falls more in oil-importing importing countries than it rises in oil-exporting countries Authorities tighten monetary policy to restrain inflation Induces shift in consumption patterns 7 II. What s s Changed Since the 1970s? 8
5 9 10
6 11 12
7 13 14
8 15 Late 2004 Federal Reserve (then) Governor Ben Bernanke: $85 billion increase in imported energy costs Reduced U.S. real GDP growth of ½ to ¾ percentage point 16
9 17 18
10 19 20
11 21 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 22
12 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 1. Change in nature of shock 1970s: exogenous supply shock 2000s: demand shock reflecting economic growth 23 Caveats: Simplification to say 1970s represented wholly exogenous supply shock, 2000s represented wholly endogenous demand shock. 24
13 25 Caveats: Economic growth and demand for oil not uniformly spread around the globe. 26
14 27 28
15 Economic growth and demand for oil not uniformly spread around the globe. In principle, demand shock for Asia could have represented supply shock for others
16 Economic growth and demand for oil not uniformly spread around the globe. In principle, demand shock for Asia could have represented supply shock for others. In practice, developing Asia growth dependent on solid world-wide wide growth. 31 Caveats: Switch from (largely) supply shock in 1970s to (largely) demand shock in 2000s cannot explain why inflationary response to higher oil prices so much lower in second period. In principle, higher oil prices should have been inflationary in both periods. 32
17 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 2. Lower oil-intensity intensity of global production in the 2000s 33 34
18 35 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 3. Better economic fundamentals in the 2000s More aggressive central bank focus on price stability better anchored inflationary expectations lower inflationary response to oil shocks less need for monetary tightening Better growth performance 36
19 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 3. Better economic fundamentals in the 2000s More flexible labor markets and real wages Wages rise by less in response to oil shocks Reduced inflationary impetus Reduced need to tighten monetary policy 37 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 3. Better economic fundamentals in the 2000s Improved growth environment 38
20 39 40
21 What explains better performance of global economy in 2000s? 1. Change in nature of shock 2. Lower oil-intensity intensity of global production in the 2000s 3. Better economic fundamentals in the 2000s All 3 explanations complementary, plausible 41 III. Oil Prices and External Imbalances 42
22 43 44
23 45 46
24 47 48
25 IV. Oil Prices and Global Capital Flows 49 IV. Oil Prices and Global Capital Flows 1. Prospects for disorderly correction 2. Contributions to global saving glut and lower interest rates 3. Sovereign wealth funds 50
26 51 1. Disorderly correction scenario Concerns about deficit induce: run on the dollar increases in interest rates declines in stock prices U.S. economic slowdown Drags down growth of U.S. trading partners, too 52
27 1. Disorderly correction scenario Research indicates disorderly correction scenario not common in industrial economies External adjustments more likely to be caused by, than to cause, economic slowdowns U.S. current account deficit has been narrowing 53 54
28 2. Contribution to global saving glut Bernanke (2005): Large developing- economy current account surpluses boost global supply of savings Contributed to current account deficits in industrial countries, including U.S. Contributed to lower interest rates around the world Helps explain Alan Greenspan s conundrum :: low interest rates in a setting of economic recovery and tightening monetary policy
29 2. Contribution to global saving glut Guesstimating effect of oil surpluses in lowering interest rates: Warnock and Warnock (2005): foreign purchases of U.S. bonds lowered U.S. treasuries by some 150 basis points How much of those purchases accounted for by oil exporters? No clear idea where oil surpluses being invested. 57 Exhibit 30 Source: BIS Quarterly Review 58
30 2. Contribution to global saving glut Guesstimating effect of oil surpluses in lowering interest rates: Warnock and Warnock (2005): foreign purchases of U.S. bonds lowered U.S. treasuries by some 150 basis points How much of those purchases accounted for by oil exporters? No clear idea where oil surpluses being invested. Instead, apply share of total global saving glut accounted for by oil exporters about ½ Ball park estimate: 150 * ½ = 75 basis points Sovereign Wealth Funds SWFs: public sector entities investing public funds in international assets Designed to achieve higher returns than investments in highly liquid assets such as foreign exchange reserves. Total assets estimated at $2-3 3 trillion Of which oil exporters may account for over two thirds 60
31 Exhibit Sovereign Wealth Funds Difficult to identify prominent effects of SWFs on global economy or financial system Total value still only some 2% of global debt and equity securities Conservative, low-profile investment strategies Avoided large/abrupt shifts in portfolios Recent investments in global banks apparently stabilizing 62
32 3. Sovereign Wealth Funds Concerns focus on potential future problems Lack of transparency Political vs. economic motives Call for guidelines on operations and conduct 63 Conclusion Important but limited effects of recent runup in oil prices on global economy Boosted inflation rates Weighed on economic growth Smaller effects than in 1970s Current oil prices consequence of rapid economic growth Global economy less dependent on oil Fundamentals of global economy are stronger 64
33 Conclusion Effects on external imbalances, capital flows, and financial system also limited No evidence that widening imbalances leading to disorderly correction. Global saving glut probably has reduced interest rates, but by how much and to what effect is uncertain. Investment by sovereign wealth funds a necessary part of the process of recycling petrodollars. Concern about lack of transparency 65
Petrodollars, the Savings Bust, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES Petrodollars, the Savings Bust, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit March 2007 International finance is a fascinating but challenging subject with many moving Richard H. Clarida Global
More informationErdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April
More informationIndonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy
Indonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy Perry Warjiyo 1 Abstract As a bank-based economy, global factors affect financial intermediation
More informationExecutive Directors welcomed the continued
ANNEX IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD DISCUSSION OF THE OUTLOOK, AUGUST 2006 The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board s discussion of the World Economic Outlook
More informationDepartment of the Treasury Office of International Affairs Occasional Paper No. 2 April 2006 The Limits of Fiscal Policy in Current Account Adjustment
DISCLAIMER Department of the Treasury Office of International Affairs Occasional Paper No. 2 April 2006 The Limits of Fiscal Policy in Adjustment Marvin Barth and Patricia Pollard Occasional Papers from
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook WVU Economic Outlook Conference October 2, 2014 R. Andrew Bauer Senior Regional Economist Are we there yet? 2 Are we there yet? Another year of moderate growth in 2014 Consumer spending
More informationGLOBAL IMBALANCES: DO THEY MATTER? Miranda Xafa
GLOBAL IMBALANCES: DO THEY MATTER? Miranda Xafa This article reviews the recent literature on global imbalances and discusses the policy implications of the various theories that have been advanced to
More informationGovernment Expenditure
Fiscal Policy Part I Much fiscal policy is implemented, not through spending increases, but through tax credits and other so-called tax expenditures. The markets should respond to them as they do spending
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationOil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment. Paolo Pesenti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NBER and CEPR
Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment Selim Elekdag, International Monetary Fund Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund Rene Lalonde, Bank of Canada Dirk Muir, Bank
More informationAlan Bollard: Easy money global liquidity and its impact on New Zealand
Alan Bollard: Easy money global liquidity and its impact on New Zealand Speech by Dr Alan Bollard, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce, Wellington, 15 March
More informationThe Effects of Dollarization on Macroeconomic Stability
The Effects of Dollarization on Macroeconomic Stability Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin Division of International Finance Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Washington, DC 2551 USA
More informationG R O U P o f T W E N T Y
G R O U P o f T W E N T Y G- Toronto Summit Toronto, Canada, June 6-7, G- Mutual Assessment Process Alternative Policy Scenarios Prepared by Staff of the International Monetary Fund I N T E R N A T I O
More informationAsset Prices and Monetary Policy Some Analytical Considerations and the Current Global Conditions
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Some Analytical Considerations and the Current Global Conditions Mario I. Blejer Director, CCBS Bank of England The XII Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia
More informationLAC Treads a Narrow Path to Growth: The Slowdown and its Macroeconomic Challenges
LAC Treads a Narrow Path to Growth: The Slowdown and its Macroeconomic Challenges Washington, DC April 14, 2015 Chief Economist Office Latin America and the Caribbean Region I. What happened? The deceleration
More informationRic Battellino: Recent financial developments
Ric Battellino: Recent financial developments Address by Mr Ric Battellino, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Annual Stockbrokers Conference, Sydney, 26 May 2011. * * * Introduction
More informationObjectives AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY
AGGREGATE DEMAND 7 AND CHAPTER AGGREGATE SUPPLY Objectives After studying this chapter, you will able to Explain what determines aggregate supply Explain what determines aggregate demand Explain macroeconomic
More informationFormulating Monetary Policy
The Global Rise in Food Prices and the US Slowdown: Issues and Challenges in Monetary Policy Formulating Monetary Policy Stephen Murchison Research Director, Bank of Canada 1 Tensions, tradeoffs and risks
More informationDo Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances? Joseph Gruber and Steven B. Kamin* February 8, 2008
Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances? Joseph Gruber and Steven B. Kamin* February, Abstract: This paper addresses the popular view that differences
More informationChapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics
Chapter 4: A First Look at Macroeconomics Principles of Macroeconomics I. Economics as a Social Science A. Economics is the social science that studies the choices that individuals, businesses, governments,
More informationIB Economics The Level of Overall Economic Activity 2.4: The Business Cycle Activity
IB Economics: www.ibdeconomics.com 2.4 THE BUSINESS CYCLE: STUDENT LEARNING ACTIVITY Answer the questions that follow. 1. DEFINITIONS Define the following terms: Business cycle Contraction Economic growth
More informationLatest Macroeconomic Projections - May Vice-Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska
Latest Macroeconomic Projections - May 2018 - Vice-Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska May, 4 2018 Contents Key assumptions on external and domestic environment Macroeconomic scenario 2018-2019 Comparison
More informationMR. PRICE: Thank you. The Chairman is gone, but Vice Chairman. Papadimitriou, members of the Trade Deficit Commission,
MR. PRICE: Thank you. The Chairman is gone, but Vice Chairman Papadimitriou, members of the Trade Deficit Commission, thank you for your invitation to appear before you on the subject of the trade deficit.
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany Strong
More informationSvein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy
Svein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic
More informationKEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016
KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 Introduction Following the success of strong macroeconomic policy adjustments
More informationFiscal Policy Part II
Fiscal Policy Part II Much fiscal policy is implemented, not through spending increases, but through tax credits and other so-called tax expenditures. The markets should respond to them as they do spending
More informationGLOBAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF OIL EXPORTERS
GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF OIL EXPORTERS Shahrokh Fardoust, Ph.D. Research Professor, College of William and Mary President, International Economic Consultants, LLC SFardoust@InternationalEconConsult.com
More informationTHE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001
THE NEW ECONOMY RECESSION: ECONOMIC SCORECARD 2001 By Dean Baker December 20, 2001 Now that it is officially acknowledged that a recession has begun, most economists are predicting that it will soon be
More informationNew Zealand Economic Outlook. Miles Workman June 2017
New Zealand Economic Outlook Miles Workman June 17 1 Economic Outlook Overview The New Zealand economy is forecast to expand at a solid pace over the next five years With real GDP growth around 3% in 17:
More informationECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED
EBF Economic Outlook Nr 43 May 2018 2018 SPRING OUTLOOK ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMIES IN 2018-2019 ECONOMIC RECOVERY AT CRUISE SPEED EDITORIAL TEAM: Francisco Saravia (author), Helge Pedersen - Chair of the
More informationThe Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting
The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting Christopher Ragan* An essential part of the Bank of Canada s inflation-control strategy is a flexible exchange rate that is free to adjust to various
More informationThe Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit. Remarks by. Ben S. Bernanke. Member. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
For release on delivery 8:00 p.m. EST March 10, 2005 The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit Remarks by Ben S. Bernanke Member Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the
More informationAndersons Professor of International Trade Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Ohio State University
Macroeconomic Outlook Ian Sheldon Andersons Professor of International Trade sheldon.1@osu.edu Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Ohio State University Extension Global economic
More informationAngola - Economic Report
Angola - Economic Report Index I. Assumptions on National Policy and External Environment... 2 II. Recent Trends... 3 A. Real Sector Developments... 3 B. Monetary and Financial sector developments... 5
More informationAggregate Supply and Demand
Aggregate demand is the relationship between GDP and the price level. When only the price level changes, GDP changes and we move along the Aggregate Demand curve. The total amount of goods and services,
More informationThe US Imbalancing Act: Can the Current Account Deficit Continue?
The US Imbalancing Act: Can the Current Account Deficit Continue? McKinsey Global Institute June 2007 Diana Farrell Susan Lund Alexander Maasry Sebastian Roemer Executive summary Many economists believe
More informationGrowth and inflation in OECD and Sweden 1999 and 2000 forecast Percentage annual change
Mr Heikensten talks about the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and labour market developments Speech by Lars Heikensten, First Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, the Swedish central
More informationThe Conduct of Monetary Policy
The Conduct of Monetary Policy This lecture examines the strategies and tactics central banks use to conduct monetary policy. Price Stability, a Nominal Anchor, and the Time-Inconsistency Problem A. Price
More informationKnowledge Series : Inflation. February 2009
Knowledge Series : Inflation February 2009 Price Shocks? Fiscal measures? Declining output? Excess money supply? Inflation Monetary tightening? 2 3 Introduction to Inflation - Inflation
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 18 January 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank In recent weeks,
More informationFault Lines in the Public Sector
First IMF Statistical Forum Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability Fault Lines in the Public Sector Jüergen von Hagen University of Bonn Paper presented at the First IMF Statistical Forum
More informationUPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES
G R O U P O F T W E N T Y UPDATE ON GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES G-20 Leaders Summit September 5 6, 2013 St. Petersburg Prepared by Staff of the I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U
More informationThe Balance of Payments
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Seventh Edition EUN / RESNICK 3-0 Copyright 2011 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Balance of Payments Chapter Objective: 3 Chapter Three INTERNATIONAL
More informationManaging Nonrenewable Natural Resources
International Monetary Fund Managing Nonrenewable Natural Resources Vitor Gaspar Fiscal Affairs Department Third IMF Statistical Forum: Official Statistics to Support Evidence-Based Policy-Making Frankfurt,
More informationThe sharp accumulation in government debt can t go on forever
The sharp accumulation in government debt can t go on forever Summary: Sovereign debts have increased sharply since the eighties; Global monetary stimulus has created a low interest rate environment but
More informationThe euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016
The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation
More informationKeeping you informed matters
Keeping you informed matters Annual Investment Review January 2018 matters Page 2 of 12 Outlook Economic growth in the US and emerging economies is leading the way, with global growth falling in line.
More informationRevision of macroeconomic forecasts - November Dimitar Bogov Governor
Revision of macroeconomic forecasts - November 2017 - Dimitar Bogov Governor 2 November 2017 Contents : Change in risks between the two forecasts External assumptions Macroeconomic scenario for 2017-2019
More informationA monthly publication from South Indian Bank. To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community...
To kindle interest in economic affairs... To empower the student community... Open YAccess www.sib.co.in ho2099@sib.co.in A monthly publication from South Indian Bank South Indian Bank has launched SB
More informationEconomicLetter. Insights from the. Accounting For the Bond-Yield Conundrum
Vol., No. FEBRUARY 8 EconomicLetter Insights from the Accounting For the Bond-Yield Conundrum by Tao Wu Long-term interest rates tend to rise as monetary policymakers increase This conundrum has prompted
More informationThe Nutcracker and the Bond King
The Nutcracker and the Bond King 10-year bond yields have just experienced one of the sharpest 100-day percentage drops in over 50 years Interest rates are now below their closing level of the 666 March
More informationIs the Flattening Yield Curve Sending a Message?
Is the Flattening Yield Curve Sending a Message? FEBRUARY 2018 Sean Simko, ChFC Managing Director SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management (SFIPM) manages fixed-income
More informationNotes on Obstfeld-Rogoff Ch.1
Notes on Obstfeld-Rogoff Ch.1 Open Economy = domestic economy trading with ROW Macro level: focus on intertemporal issues (not: multiple good, added later) OR 1.1-1.2: Small economy = Easiest setting to
More informationPRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: IS IT TIME FOR AN INFRASTRUCTURE PUSH? THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT World Economic Outlook, October 2014
PRESS POINTS FOR CHAPTER 3: IS IT TIME FOR AN INFRASTRUCTURE PUSH? THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT World Economic Outlook, October 14 Prepared by Abdul Abiad (team leader), Aseel Almansour,
More informationasdf World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 Executive Summary
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007 Executive Summary asdf United Nations New York, 2007 The full publication is available from http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html and is issued in English
More informationIan J Macfarlane: Payment imbalances
Ian J Macfarlane: Payment imbalances Presentation by Mr Ian J Macfarlane, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 12 May 2005. * * * My talk today
More informationCase study 1. Shattering. the Myths. About U.S. Trade Policy. The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in the US
+ Case study 1 Shattering the Myths About U.S. Trade Policy The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in the US + The blames from U.S. Loss of jobs Damage of welfare + The 3 Myths about U.S. Trade Policy 1 Job
More informationOutlook for the Chilean Economy
Outlook for the Chilean Economy Jorge Marshall, Vice-President of the Board, Central Bank of Chile. Address to the Fifth Annual Latin American Banking Conference, Salomon Smith Barney, New York, March
More informationØystein Olsen: The economic outlook
Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Oslo, 29 March 2011. The address is based
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 378 June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit. July 14, 2011
COMMENTARY NUMBER 378 June Retail Sales, PPI, May Trade Deficit July 14, 2011 At Best, Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Showed No Growth in Second-Quarter 2011 Trade Data Should Offer a Positive Contribution
More informationQuantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar
Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar Jeff Ferry (Chief Economist) and Steven Byers (Senior Economist) February 2019 The persistent overvaluation of the US dollar presents
More informationJoseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery
Joseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery Remarks by Mr Joseph S Tracy, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York, 28
More informationThe Outlook for the World Economy
AIECE General Meeting Brussels, 14/15 November 218 The Outlook for the World Economy Downward risks are rising Klaus-Jürgen Gern Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecasting Center Global growth has
More informationAssessing the Spillover Effects of Changes in Bank Capital Regulation Using BoC-GEM-Fin: A Non-Technical Description
Assessing the Spillover Effects of Changes in Bank Capital Regulation Using BoC-GEM-Fin: A Non-Technical Description Carlos de Resende, Ali Dib, and Nikita Perevalov International Economic Analysis Department
More informationThe global economy: so far so good? 1
Presentation at the Belgian Financial Forum, Brussels, 8 July 5 The global economy: so far so good? Malcolm D Knight, General Manager Bank for International Settlements 4 was one of the best years for
More informationA Chile in Transition: Stability Brings Change. Macroeconomics 556 April 13, Alex Rosaen Neerav Shah Elias Walsh
A Chile in Transition: Stability Brings Change Macroeconomics 556 April 13, 2005 Alex Rosaen Neerav Shah Elias Walsh Since 1996 Chile has enjoyed declining inflation and stable growth. Government has been
More informationTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY: SECULAR STAGNATION OR RECOVERY AT LAST? Adair Turner Chairman Institute for New Economic Thinking
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: SECULAR STAGNATION OR RECOVERY AT LAST? Adair Turner Chairman Institute for New Economic Thinking Institutional Money Kongress Frankfurt, 21 February 2017 300 Park Avenue South - 5
More informationSovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance: Risks and Opportunities
Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance: Risks and Opportunities Alan Gelb, Silvana Tordo and Håvard Halland World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6776 Natural Resource Charter Annual
More informationReflections on 25 Years of Inflation Targeting Opening Remarks
Reflections on 25 Years of Inflation Targeting Opening Remarks Graeme Wheeler Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand It is now twenty-five years since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Act came into
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 23 November 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationEcon520. Spring Prof. Lutz Hendricks. March 28, 2017
Practice Problems: Trade Deficits Econ520. Spring 2017. Prof. Lutz Hendricks. March 28, 2017 Jones, Charles I. (2008). Macroeconomics (1st ed.). W. W. Norton, ch. 14, questions 1, 3-8. 1 Basics 1. Explain
More informationDiscussion of The initial impact of the crisis on emerging market countries Linda L. Tesar University of Michigan
Discussion of The initial impact of the crisis on emerging market countries Linda L. Tesar University of Michigan The US recession that began in late 2007 had significant spillover effects to the rest
More informationMalta: Sustaining rapid growth. necessitates strong investment
Malta: Sustaining rapid growth necessitates strong investment Dr Aaron G Grech Chief Officer, Economics, Central Bank of Malta 2018 Meeting of the EBRD Constituency for Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
More informationBen S Bernanke: Asia and the global financial crisis
Ben S Bernanke: Asia and the global financial crisis Speech by Mr Ben S Bernanke, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco s Conference
More informationFIRST LOOK AT MACROECONOMICS*
Chapter 4 A FIRST LOOK AT MACROECONOMICS* Key Concepts Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics Modern macroeconomics began during the Great Depression, 1929 1939. The Great Depression was a decade of high
More informationEconomic Theories & Debt Driven Realities
Economic Theories & Debt Driven Realities March 11, 2019 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice One of the most highly debated topics over the past few months has been the rise of Modern Monetary Theory
More informationDebt vs Growth: Correlation or Causation
Debt vs Growth: Correlation or Causation February 24, 2016 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Recently, my article on weak economic underpinnings led to an interesting exchange, via Twitter, with
More informationRepublic of Cyprus Ministry of Finance. The Cyprus Sovereign Wealth Fund - the role of oil and gas revenues
Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Finance The Cyprus Sovereign Wealth Fund - the role of oil and gas revenues 1.11.2017 Presentation Outline 1. The role of oil and gas revenues in an economy 2. Uniqueness
More informationGlobal Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States
Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States Timothy J. Kehoe University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Kim J. Ruhl Stern School of Business, New York University Joseph
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationEvaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Words. Copyright Aspose Pty Ltd. International Monetary Fund
Evaluation Only. Created with Aspose.Words. Copyright 2003-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. International Monetary Fund Czech Republic 2010 Article IV Consultation Concluding Statement January 25, 2010 The macroeconomic
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, 214 Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist MARCH 214 IEQ: INVESTMENT IN FLUX Fixed investment: subdued, and risks Risks to fiscal space needed
More informationInvestment and its Financing: A Macro Perspective
G R O U P O F T W E N T Y Investment and its Financing: A Macro Perspective Annex to the G Surveillance Note Meetings of G Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors February, 3 Prepared by Staff of
More informationII. The global economy
II. The global economy Highlights The world economy grew strongly in 24, supported by expansionary monetary policies and unusually accommodative financial conditions. Sharply rising commodity prices failed
More informationSession 2. Saving and Investment. The Real Interest Rate. National Accounting
Session 2. Saving and. The Real Interest Rate. v National Accounting Identity v Consumption and Saving v v Equilibrium and the real interest rate v Applications: Farewell to cheap capital? National Accounting
More informationPre-Test Chapter 9 ed17
Pre-Test Chapter 9 ed17 Multiple Choice Questions 1. Which of the following statements is incorrect? A. Given the economy's MPS, a $15 billion reduction in government spending will reduce the equilibrium
More informationWhen Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises Òscar Jordà *, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor *Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and U.C. Davis, Free University of Berlin, and University
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationSupply and Demand over the Business Cycle
Session 9. The Model at Work. v Business Cycles v The Economy in the Long Run: Recession and recovery Monetary expansion The everyday business of the central bank v Summing up: The IS/LM Model in Closed
More informationEconomic Growth Chapter 12 Section Main Menu
Economic Growth 12.3 How do economists measure economic growth? What is capital deepening? How are saving and investing related to economic growth? How does technological progress affect economic growth?
More informationDevelopments in inflation and its determinants
INFLATION REPORT February 2018 Summary Developments in inflation and its determinants The annual CPI inflation rate strengthened its upward trend in the course of 2017 Q4, standing at 3.32 percent in December,
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2016 Jeffrey M. Lacker President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Annual Meeting of the South Carolina Business & Industry Political Education Committee Columbia, South Carolina
More information14.02 Principles of Macroeconomics Problem Set # 2, Answers
14.0 Principles of Macroeconomics Problem Set #, Answers Part I 1. False. The multiplier is 1/ [1- c 1 (1- t)]. The effect of an increase in autonomous spending is dampened because taxes respond proportionally
More informationMINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 7 AND 8 OCTOBER 2009
Publication date: 21 October 2009 MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 7 AND 8 OCTOBER 2009 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 7 and 8 October 2009. They
More informationHamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York
Hamid Rashid, Ph.D. Chief Global Economic Monitoring Unit Development Policy Analysis Division UNDESA, New York 1 Global macroeconomic trends Major headwinds Risks and uncertainties Policy questions and
More informationEmerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing The risks of renewed capital flight from emerging markets Recent episodes of capital flight from emerging markets have highlighted the vulnerability of a number
More informationDiffusion indices of forecast risks in Summary of Economic Projections From September 2016 FOMC to June 2018 FOMC. Mar '17 FOMC
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
More informationGlobal Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States
Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States Timothy J. Kehoe University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Kim J. Ruhl Stern School of Business, New York University Joseph
More information