THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET REVERSAL
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- Robert White
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1 THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET REVERSAL DID YOU REOGNIZE THE END OF THE BOND MARKET RALLY? TRENDRATING DID. TRENDRATING LONDON BOSTON LUGANO
2 The historically long bond rally is over. Negative momentum began creeping into bond markets a few months ago. Did you have the proper technology tools to identify the momentum shift? Unfortunately, many financial institutions did not and are still scrambling to unwind big positions. Trendrating Smart Momentum detects trend reversals quickly and reliably, helping asset managers limit downside capture and protect profits in down markets while presenting positive momentum opportunities missed by most others. Trendrating enables you to continually evaluate the strength of your positions, and to focus not on what has happened, but gain insight into what could happen. When an asset class experiences many downgrades in aggregate, that s a major warning flag. Our systematic momentum model can often see Macro level changes sometimes months ahead of what industry forces are aware of. You can choose to ignore the effectiveness of momentum investing and miss the boat or take action and arm your portfolio managers with the proper tools to stay in synch when the market moves wildly. Our track record is documented by the reports that we publish on FactSet and in our Newsletters every month. If you want to experience how Trendrating can help you to be more timely in spotting trends we are happy to let your team test drive Trendrating for a short period so that they can see the tremendous value we add to the investment decision process. Please take the time to read this report and examine Trendrating s recent effectiveness on rating Fixed Income ETFs. It shows when we accurately identified the shift to negative momentum issuing many and D downgrades before the November bond market collapse. Users of our system know it is fully transparent in terms of the percentage of correct/incorrect calls. FTSE Russell scrutinized our live ratings for nearly 1 year before deciding to make Trendrating the premier provider of momentum analytics used to develop a series of new global indices launching in early Our mission is to bring real innovation to portfolio management. We look forward to speaking with you soon. Best Regards, Rocco Pellegrinelli Founder & EO
3 The table below shows the performance of ore US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) and the Global Government Bond ETF from ishares. Both ETFs were downgraded at the onset of downward trends. Performance Ticker Name Price Rating Rated on YTD 3 months Since Rated GOVT IShares ore US Treasury Bond /28/ % -4.38% -3.15% IGLO ishares Global Government Bond /31/ % -8.29% -4.99% The diagram below displays Momentum ratings changes issued by Trendrating over the past three months. Over 90% of Fixed Income ETF ratings have been downgrades into negative momentum ( and D ratings). Over the last few weeks downgrades have greatly accelerated. Trendrating is an excellent way to monitor Macro Market conditions in an objective, systematic manner. Below are more examples of how Trendrating can be leveraged to identify market reversals weeks to months before they occur.
4 Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) Rated on: Nov Since : -0.95% ishares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.94% ishares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) Rated on: Oct Since : -2.15% ishares ore US Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) Rated on: Oct Since : -2.84%
5 Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.62% ishares Global orporate Bond EUR Hedged UITS ETF (RPH) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.08% db x-trackers II iboxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus UITS ETF 1 (XY4P) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.74% ishares Global Government Bond UITS ETF (IGLO) Rated on: Oct Since : -4.80%
6 D ishares 1-5 Year Laddered Government Bond Index ETF (LF) Rated on: Apr Since D: -2.26% ishares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) Rated on: Nov Since : -3.47% ishares Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) Rated on: Oct Since : -6.01% D PowerShares 1-5 Year Laddered Investment Grade orporate Bond Index ETF (PSB) Rated on: Oct Since D: -1.98%
7 ishares Italy Government Bond UITS ETF (IITB) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.85% Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF (VGLT) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.17% SPDR Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (ITE) Rated on: Oct Since : -1.97% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) Rated on: Oct Since : %
8 ishares Euro Government Bond 15-30yr UITS ETF (IBGL) Rated on: Nov Since : -4.61% ishares eb.rexx Government Germany UITS ETF DE (EXHA) Rated on: Oct Since : -0.91% SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF (TLO) Rated on: Nov Since : -0.90% D BMO Short Provincial Bond Index ETF (ZPS) Rated on: Apr Since D: -1.69%
9 db x-trackers II Global Sovereign UITS ETF - 1 (DBZB) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.02% Amundi ETF Govt Bond EuroMTS Broad Investment Grade UITS ETF (B3) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.39% D Think iboxx AAA-AA Government Bond UITS ETF (TAT) Rated on: May Since D: -1.88% SPDR Barclays US Treasury Bond UITS ETF (TRSY) Rated on: Oct Since : -2.97%
10 PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio (PLW) Rated on: Oct Since : -5.04% Lyxor EuroMTS Highest Rated Macro Weighted Government Bond UITS ETF (MAA) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.08% SPDR Barclays Short Term International Treasury Bond ETF (BWZ) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.38% PowerShares International orporate Bond Portfolio (PIB) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.37%
11 Pimco 25+ Year Zero oupon US Treasury Index ETF (ZROZ) Rated on: Oct Since : % db x-trackers II Global Sovereign UITS ETF - 1D (XGVD) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.03% db x-trackers II iboxx USD Treasuries UITS ETF DR (XUTD) Rated on: Oct Since : -2.79% Iboxx Liquid Sovereigns Global Theam Easy UITS ETF (ISM) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.51%
12 SPDR Barclays International orporate Bond ETF (IBND) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.94% D Deka iboxx Eur Liquid Sovereign Diversified 1-3 UITS ETF (EL4L) Rated on: Apr Since D: -1.15% Amundi ETF Govt Bond EuroMTS Broad Investment Grade UITS ETF (10) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.53% Amundi ETF US Treasury 7-10 UITS ETF (US7) Rated on: Nov Since : -1.20%
13 Lyxor iboxx USD Treasuries 10y+ DR UITS ETF (US10) Rated on: Nov Since : -3.31% ishares 1-3 Year International Treasury Bond ETF (ISHG) Rated on: Nov Since : -3.21% ishares Euro Government Bond 10-15yr UITS ETF (IEGZ) Rated on: Nov Since : -2.74% ishares International Preferred Stock ETF (IPFF) Rated on: Sep Since : -3.60%
14 WHY YOUR FIRM NEEDS TO INORPORATE TRENDRATING NOW Portfolio managers understand that their investment strategies and decision-making can be enhanced by data analysis in four key areas: to balance emotion, bias, market knowledge and opinion subjectivity. A growing trend sees investors incorporating systematic models which, rather than replacing experts, can be overlaid onto the existing investment decision making process. On average, sound models outperform experts, while adding discipline, transparency and measurability. Momentum is a strong factor, persistent over time and negatively correlated to most fundamental strategies. Momentum when combined with a value approach, can dramatically enhance returns and reduce volatility. Trendrating more than pays for itself by managing portfolio risk and avoiding major losses. ontact Trendrating today to schedule a demonstration and see how our system spots major trends better than any analytics solution commercially available. info@trendrating.com The evaluations, rankings and information provided by Trendrating (the "Services") are provided solely for the use of finance professionals (the "Users") who have been issued a license to use the Services by Trendrating and who, by nature of their status as investment professions understand, or are expected to understand, the complexity of finance products, the functioning of the markets and the risks inherent in them. The Services are not offered for use by persons not employed or actively working as professionals in the finance and investment industry. The Services are to be used entirely at the risk of the Users. Included in the Services are forward-looking statements that are based on observations, assumptions and calculations that reflect Trendrating's expectations. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expectations. The Services are not intended to constitute a recommendation of any specific security or financial product and are to be implemented solely in conjunction with or as part of a complete investment evaluation conducted by the Users. Under no circumstances shall Trendrating, its officers, directors, employees or agents be liable for any damages, lost profits or investment losses that result in any way from use of the Services or any interruptions, errors or delays in the Services.
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