W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index TM (PWRDXTR)
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1 W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index TM (PWRDXTR) A Tactical Dividend Strategy for Today s Low Yield World For more information call:
2 S&P 500 Index Since the Turn of the Millennium 3,000 S&P 500 TR Index 12/31/ /31/2017 2,500 Cyclical Bull % 2,000 1,500 1, /01/2000 Cyclical Bear % 10/09/2002 Cyclical Bull % 10/9/2007 Cyclical Bear % 3/9/ Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-1 *To ensure fair comparisons, all of the starting index values are normalized to 1,000 as of December 31, Source: S-Network, as of 12/31/2017 Since January 2000, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has Offered a Great Deal of Volatility Without the Returns.
3 Challenges Facing Investors Today Secular Bear Market with Volatile Swings Global De-Leveraging Process Sluggish Economic Growth Prospects Historically Low Interest Rate Environment U.S. Aging Boomer Demographic
4 Why Dividend Paying Stocks? Dividends Accounted for More Than Half of the S&P 500 Total Returns from the Since the Turn of the Millennium Dividend Stocks Pay Income and Potentially Hedge Inflation Dividend Paying Stocks Tend to be Less Volatile Dividend Paying Stocks Can Potentially Offer Preferential Tax Treatment
5 Why Tactical Asset Management? It s Not What You Make, It s What You Keep S&P 500 Index Has Offered Significant Volatility With Little Reward for the Last Decade or So Shifting Defensively During Periods of Market Decline Can Potentially Preserve Capital and Enhance Returns
6 Why Equal Weighting? Avoids Domination by Mega-Cap and Large-Cap Stocks e.g. Top Ten Stocks in Cap Weighted S&P 500 = ~20% e.g. Top Ten Stocks in Equal Weighted S&P 500 = ~2% PWRDXTR Avoids Sector Concentration Based on Market Cap All Ten Sectors Are Equal Weighted Lowers Allocations to Financials and Information Technology Cap Weighting Gives Index Momentum Bias Best Performing Stocks Get Higher Weights with Each Rebalancing Worst Performing Stocks Get Lower Weights with Each Rebalancing
7 W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM Description Entirely Rules Based and Transparent Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) Methodology Dynamically Allocates Index Market Capitalization between a Portfolio of Stocks That Replicates the SDOGX Index and 90-Day US Treasury Bills Shifts in Allocations Are Made Based on Intermediate Term Exponential Moving Average Crossovers Bullish Crossover Index Invests in Dividend Paying Stocks Defensive Crossover Index Invests in 90-Day US Treasury Bills
8 W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM Description Moving Averages Based on the Closing Prices of the S- Network Dividend Dogs Total Return Index (SDOGXTR) Reallocations Occur at the Close of Trading on T+1 Next Trading Day Following Crossover Signal No Qualitative Screens Are Applied to Allocation Methodology
9 Power Dividend Selection Process S&P 500 Top 5 Dividend Paying Stocks in 10 GICS Sectors 50 Stocks Equal Weighted Exponential Moving Average Crossovers Stocks or T-Bills
10 Historical Performance W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend TR vs. S&P 500 TR (12/31/ /31/2017) = Equities = 90-Day T-Bills Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 PWRDXTR SPXT *To ensure fair comparisons, all of the starting index values are normalized to 1,000 as of December 31, Source: Standard & Poor s, as of 12/31/2017 The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index s TAA Overlay Has Substantially Diminished the Impact of Market Downturns, Improving Performance Significantly Over Time.
11 What is Buried in the Power Dividend Numbers?* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year % -7.66% 11.59% 1.22% 4.41% -4.40% -1.65% 5.93% -1.56% 3.68% -1.12% 5.14% 8.11% % 0.95% -1.56% 7.66% 3.52% 0.34% 2.37% -1.43% -7.51% -0.78% 3.06% 2.16% 14.35% % 0.79% 4.04% -4.11% 2.23% -8.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.10% 0.11% -4.94% % 0.09% 0.10% 0.10% 7.14% 1.19% 0.63% 3.76% -1.28% 6.38% 1.63% 9.57% 32.89% % 1.48% -1.55% -0.88% 0.36% 3.43% -1.13% 1.86% 1.23% 1.73% 5.19% 3.33% 17.52% % 4.64% -1.30% -1.84% 2.61% 1.13% 3.65% -1.10% 0.90% -2.19% 1.92% 0.49% 5.45% % 0.28% 1.29% 0.95% -1.40% 2.11% 1.99% 1.93% 2.83% 3.55% 1.61% 1.83% 20.73% % 0.14% 0.48% 3.22% 3.78% -0.91% -4.63% 0.95% 2.44% 1.10% -6.91% 0.27% 1.26% % 0.18% 0.13% 0.11% 0.14% 0.16% 0.15% 0.14% 0.13% 0.07% 0.03% 0.00% 1.52% % 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 2.56% -4.31% 14.07% 8.39% 7.49% -3.20% 7.06% 4.88% 41.88% % 2.68% 7.12% 2.52% -7.14% -4.00% 6.98% -2.56% 9.29% 3.18% -0.87% 6.43% 20.33% % 4.29% 1.72% 3.29% 0.79% -1.86% -3.75% -5.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.59% 2.59% 2.80% % 4.86% 0.89% -0.66% -5.79% 4.94% 2.73% 1.31% 1.90% 0.65% -0.67% 0.40% 11.24% % 1.10% 5.73% 3.33% 0.27% 0.39% 4.58% -2.51% 3.02% 4.91% 0.67% 2.41% 34.99% % 3.64% 3.47% 2.94% 2.35% 2.59% -1.60% 3.68% -1.58% 2.25% 2.05% -1.00% 15.60% % 4.62% -2.74% 4.20% -0.84% -3.45% -2.41% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% -4.19% % 0.03% 4.29% 1.49% 0.90% 1.05% 5.11% -0.80% 0.97% -3.33% 5.34% 0.25% 16.03% % 2.79% -1.22% -0.57% -0.72% 1.72% 0.97% -1.04% 4.32% 0.28% 3.31% 1.20% 13.18% *See Disclosure Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017
12 Return Risk/Return Profiles PWRDXTR Index vs. SPXT Index* 14.00% Less Risk More Return More Risk More Return 12.00% 10.00% W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index TM 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% S&P 500 Total Return Index 2.00% Less Risk Less Return More Risk Less Return 0.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Risk *Since inception 12/31/1999 *See Disclosure Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017
13 Index Drawdown W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index Max Drawdown 12/31/ /31/ May 19, 2011: August 8, 2011: August 10, 2012: Drawdown Period: 81 Days Recapture Period: 368 Days 449 Days % % Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017
14 Current TTM Yield Comparison Index Name TTM Yield W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM +3.72% S&P 500 Index +1.83% *Does not include special cash dividends Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 * When Index Market Capitalization is allocated to T-Bills, Dividend Yield Matches T-Bill Yield. The Current TTM Yield of the W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM Is 90.04% Greater Than the TTM Yield of the S&P 500.*
15 Historical TTM Yield 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 4.00% 3.27% 1.23% 1.37% W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TTM Yield vs. S&P 500 Index TTM Yield* (12/31/ /31/2017) 2.53% 1.83% 2.75% 3.28% 1.56% 1.60% 3.46% 3.28% 1.78% 1.75% 3.55% 1.89% 1.52% 3.14% 2.46% 2.01% 4.11% 1.81% 3.79% 4.67% 2.10% 2.19% 3.82% 3.80% 2.96% 3.72% 2.28% 1.89% 2.12% 1.92% 2.04% 1.83% 0.50% 0.00% Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 PWRDX S&P 500 *In years during which the index was invested in both cash and equities, special cash dividends were not included in the dividend yield of the index, which has the effect of understating the dividend yield of the index but has no effect on the total return performance of the index. Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure Over an Extended Time Frame, the W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM Has Consistently Offered Higher Yield.
16 Rising Interest Rates Sensitivity to Rate Increases 10 Yr Treasury Rate (%) Total Return (%) Period Start Period End Start End Ch (%) PWRDXTR STHY HY 10 Yr Treasury IG Corp Oct 01 Mar May 03 Aug Mar 04 May Jun 05 Jun Mar 08 May Dec 08 Jun Nov 09 Mar Aug 10 Mar Jan 12 Mar Jul 12 Dec *Highlighted cells indicate best performing asset classes during the respective period Short-term high yield (STHY) is represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch 1-5 Year U.S. High Yield Constrained Index; HY is represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Index; 10-year Treasury is represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index; investment grade (IG) corporate is represented by the Barclays U.S. Credit Index Source PIMCO as of 12/31/2017 The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index TM Has Historically Outperformed Short Term Duration Products During Periods of Rate Increases.
17 Index Allocation Allocation Begin Date End Date Equities 12/31/ /1/ Day T-Bills 11/2/ /14/2001 Equities 11/15/2001 6/25/ Day T-Bills 6/26/2002 5/12/2003 Equities 5/13/ /19/ Day T-Bills 11/20/2007 5/27/2009 Equities 5/28/2009 8/16/ Day T-Bills 8/17/ /3/2011 Equities 11/4/2011 7/24/ Day T-Bills 7/27/2015 3/9/2016 Equities 3/10/2016 Current Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure
18 Year-On-Year Performance Date Power Dividend TR Index S&P 500 TR Index +/- vs S&P 500 TR Index 12/31/ % -9.10% 17.21% 12/31/ % % 26.24% 12/31/ % % 17.16% 12/31/ % 28.68% 4.21% 12/31/ % 10.88% 6.64% 12/31/ % 4.91% 0.54% 12/31/ % 15.79% 4.94% 12/31/ % 5.49% -4.23% 12/31/ % % 38.52% 12/31/ % 26.46% 15.42% 12/31/ % 15.06% 5.27% 12/31/ % 2.11% 0.69% 12/31/ % 16.00% -4.76% 12/31/ % 32.39% 2.60% 12/31/ % 13.69% 1.91% 12/31/ % 1.38% -5.57% 12/31/ % 11.96% 4.07% 12/31/ % 21.83% -8.65% Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM has Outperformed the S&P 500 in 14 of the Past 18 Years.
19 Index Fundamentals Index Fundamentals (Monthly, Since Inception)* vs S&P 500 TR Index Outperformance % Correlation Periodic Tracking Error (%) 3.36% Annual Tracking Error (%) 11.64% Average % Alpha 0.83% Information Ratio Index Volatility (Monthly, Since Inception)* Power Dividend TR Index 11.34% S&P 500 TR Index 14.52% *Inception 12/31/1999 *Calculated Using Power Dividend TR Index Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index TM Has Produced Higher Returns with Lower Volatility Compared to the S&P 500.
20 Statistical Profile I Total Return Appreciation** Power Dividend TR Index S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* % % 10 Year % % 5 Year 96.34% % 3 Year 25.81% 38.29% 1 Year 13.18% 21.83% Compound Annual Growth Rate** Power Dividend TR Index S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* 13.12% 5.40% 10 Year 14.55% 8.50% 5 Year 14.45% 15.79% 3 Year 7.95% 11.41% 1 Year 13.18% 21.83% Annualized Standard Deviation (Monthly)** Power Dividend TR Index S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* 11.34% 14.52% 10 Year 11.25% 15.08% 5 Year 8.82% 9.49% 3 Year 8.25% 10.07% 1 Year 6.22% 3.94% *Inception 12/31/1999 **Calculated Using Power Dividend TR Index Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure
21 Statistical Profile II Sharpe Ratio** Power Dividend TR Index S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* Year Year Year Year Tracking Error (Monthly)** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* 11.64% 10 Year 12.35% 5 Year 7.30% 3 Year 8.75% 1 Year 4.60% Correlation (Monthly)** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* Year Year Year Year *Inception 12/31/1999 **Calculated Using Power Dividend TR Index Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure
22 Statistical Profile III Outperformance** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* % 10 Year % 5 Year % 3 Year % 1 Year -8.65% Information Ratio** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* Year Year Year Year *Inception 12/31/1999 **Calculated Using Power Dividend TR Index Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure
23 Statistical Profile IV Beta (Monthly)** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* Year Year Year Year R-Squared (Monthly)** vs. S&P 500 TR Index Since Inception* Year Year Year Year *Inception 12/31/1999 **Calculated Using Power Dividend TR Index Source Bloomberg, as of 12/31/2017 *See Disclosure
24 Index Details & Data Distribution Index Values are Disseminated in US dollars via the New York Stock Exchange Price Index: PWRDXPX Total Return Index: PWRDXTR Values Distributed Once Daily at approximately 4:30PM Data Available via All Major Providers of Financial Data (BBG, TR, Google, Yahoo, etc.) Comprehensive Historic Data (including simulated back-tests from 12/31/1999) Quarterly Portfolio Snapshots (Historic Constituents and Weights) Extensive Analytic support Quarterly Reports ( Index Insights ) Industry Overviews Extensive Statistical Data
25 Disclosures & Disclaimers The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Total Return Index (Ticker: PWRDXTR) is a Trade Mark of W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC. The W.E. Power Dividend Total Return Index (PWRDXTR) reflects back tested performance from the period beginning 12/31/1999 to 11/19/2012. The W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index (PWRDXTR) live calculation began on 11/20/2012 as calculated by Standard and Poor s. One cannot invest directly in an index. The Index is a rules based index, which reflects the theoretical performance an investor would have obtained had it invested in the manner shown and does not represent returns actually obtained and does not represent returns an investor actually attained, as investors cannot invest directly in an index. No representation is being made that any client will or is likely to achieve results similar to those presented herein. The Index performance includes the reinvestments of all dividends and distributions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results or returns. The inclusion of the S&P 500 (S&P) Index is for comparison purposes only. The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. Standard and Poor s chooses the member companies based upon market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. Included are stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. The historical performance results of the S&P 500 Index (and all other indexes) are unmanaged; do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of a management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results and cannot be invested in directly. Economic factors, market conditions and investment strategies will affect the performance of any portfolio, and therefore are not assurances that it will match or outperform any particular benchmark. The S-Network Sector Dividend Dogs Index, SDOGX and SDOGXTR ("Index") are service marks of S-Network Global Indexes, Inc. ("Licensor") and have been licensed for use by W. E. Donoghue & Co., LLC. Any financial product based on the Index or any index derived there from ("the Product") which is offered by W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S-Network Global Indexes, Inc. and S- Network Global Indexes, Inc. makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Product. Licensor makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners of the Product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in securities generally or in the Product particularly. Licensor s only relationship to the Licensee is the licensing of certain service marks and trade names of Licensor and of the Index that is determined, composed and calculated by Licensor without regard to the Licensee or the Product. Licensor has no obligation to take the needs of the Licensee or the owners of the Product into consideration in determining, composing or calculating the Index. Licensor is not responsible for and has not participated in the determination of the timing of, prices at, or quantities of the Product to be issued or in the determination or calculation of the equation by which the Product is to be converted into cash. Licensor has no obligation or liability in connection with the administration, marketing or trading of the Product. LICENSOR DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE ACCURACY AND/OR THE COMPLETENESS OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN AND LICENSOR SHALL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR ANY ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INTERRUPTIONS THEREIN. LICENSOR MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED BY LICENSEE, OWNERS OF THE PRODUCT, OR ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY FROM THE USE OF THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. LICENSOR MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE WITH RESPECT TO THE INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL LICENSOR HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES. Standard & Poor s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC ( S&P ) and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ( Dow Jones ) and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and sublicensed for certain purposes by W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC. S-Network Global Indexes, Inc. s trademarks are trademarks of the S-Network Global Indexes, Inc. and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC. The "W.E. Donoghue Power Dividend Index" is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, and has been licensed for use by W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC. W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC's Power Dividend Index is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates, or S-Network Global Indexes, Inc. and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates or S-Network Global Indexes make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s). For additional information please call or info@donoghue.com.
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