Results and opportunities for Argentina's development. November 2014

Transcription

1 Results and opportunities for Argentina's development November

2 Disclaimer Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 Leading and fully integrated Argentine energy company 2014 Sales (1) (USD) 17,238 M Production Oil (M bbl/d) (4) Refining Market Share (%) 42 Market Share (%) 50 Capacity (Mbbl/d) 320 EBITDA (1) (USD) 5,273 M Gas (MM m3/d) (4) Marketing (3) 49.0 Utilization (%) (%) Gas stations 90 Proved reserves (2) Net income (1) (USD) 1,270 M Product Market share (%) Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil ,542 34% of total Gas 42% Oil 58% Total: MMBOEs Largest company in Argentina #1 in all business segments in which it operates + 21,000 employees Basin Gas Oil Refinery Terminals Jet fuel Pump station Pipelines Marine transport Petrochemicals LPG Distributors Gas station Notes: M: million (4) Q (1) Last 12 months (Q3 2014) (2) Internal information including YSUR and Puesto Hernández (3) Cumulated January-September

4 Investment and activity Investment growth Significant growth in activity Upstream Investment* (MUSD) Rigs # +104% 4,488 ~5, % ,197 2, Proy end Q3 3Q 2014 (*) Includes 100% Loma Campana investment 4

5 Increased production reversing decline Increase in O&G production Natural Gas Million m 3 /d Oil kbbls/d % vs Q % vs Q = Former Management Current management difference * Includes YSUR y P Hernandez 5

6 Balanced growth, maintaining solvency Revenues and Net income show a solid growth allowing us to continue our investment plan Revenues (US$ Million ) Net income (US$ Million) 13, % +12% 17,238 16,514 14, % 12,319 13,113 1, % +21% 1,270 1, % LTM 9M2013 9M LTM 9M2013 9M2014 6

7 Unconventional development YPF leading outside North America 7

8 Vaca Muerta / YPF is developing a world-class asset YPF net Area 12,075 km 2 Windows Oil 77% Humid Gas 5% Dry Gas 18% Shale Oil and Gas Total Area 30,000 km 2 Wells Comparison with the United States Vaca Muerta Best US Examples Oil Dry Gas Main owners of unconventional plays in America TOC (%) 3-10 Marcellus 2-12 Humid Gas Chesapeake ExxonMobil YPF Chevron Apache Thickness (m) Pressure (psi) Eagle Ford Haynesville

9 Unconventional: Vaca Muerta pilots and development Vaca Muerta Total: 30,000 km 2 YPF: 12,000 km 2 aprox projected activity in 2 projects Capex (MUSD) Estimated development of the 3 projects in 2% of Vaca Muerta Wells # Capex (MUSD) # Wells 2 ongoing projects: 520 km 2 YPF operator 9

10 Unconventional: Increase in activity Investment growth Significant activity increase ~1,800 Drilling Rigs , end Q3 3Q Wells on Production As of Q ** **Forecast Abr Dic Dic 2013 end 2014 Q3 YTD

11 Unconventional production increase Shale development* (Bbls/d) Oil (bbls/d) Natural Gas Development Gas (km 3 /d) Wells on production Current Production + 35,000 boe/day * Current unconventional production equals 18% of YPF production in the Neuquen Basin Operated gross production at field level (LoCa, Band, LaCh, Bañ, ElOr; PYga) 11

12 Significant well cost reduction - Drilling & Completion Millions USD USD EQ/SITE COMPLETION DRILLING USD stg/well 4.5 stg/well USD stg/well stg/well USD 6 USD 4 USD 2 USD YTD 12

13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Q Upstream Results Tight gas update Loma La Lata (121 km 2 29,900 acres) 1 Objective: Lajas formation Invested over USD 540 million 69 wells drilled 56 producing wells 4 active drilling rigs Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km 2 45,200 acres) Objective: Mulichinco formation Invested over USD 173 million 29 wells drilled 28 producing wells 3 active drilling rigs Natural gas production (Mm 3 /d) Natural gas production (Mm 3 /d) Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Gross Net (1) Refers to Lajas prospective area called Segmento 5 in Loma La Lata block. 13

14 Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province Unconventional Play Maturity Cycle 1. Exploration 2. Delineation 3. Pilot 4. Development 5. Decline TOC Thickness Thermal Prop Dist of TOC GOR Completion Strategy Testing Frac Intensity Well-type Eagle Ford Factory Mode Development Optimization Loma Campana Scale Back Drilling Abandonment Wolfcamp Duvernay Vaca Muerta Sweet Spot Gate Maturity 14

15 YPF in Petrochemical Industry 15

16 Chemicals in YPF: a strong position to monetize E&P production Proved CIE reserves: (Industrial 85 Cluster M boe Ensenada) % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Aromatics 8.8 M (kt/y) boe BTX: 515 (Benzene, Toluene, Mixed Xylenes) Orthoxylene: 25 Ciclohexane: 95 Solvents: 66 C Olefins Derivatives (kt/y) MTBE: 60 Butene I: 25 Oxoalcohols: 35 TAME: 105 LAB/LAS (kt/y) LAB: 52 LAS: 25 Polybutenes (kt/a) PIB: 26 Maleic (kt/y) Maleic Anhydride: 18 Propylene: 120 kt/y A D A B Plaza Huincul Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Methanol: M boe kt/y C Profertil B YPF: 50% Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: Agrium: 8.850% M boe Urea: 1,100 kt/y D Luján de Cuyo Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: YPF: 2 100% Production: Propylene: 8.8 M 80 boe kt/y 3 chemical complexes A C B Capacity Aromatics 24% Olefins 9% Others 11% Tones per year Methanol 16% Ammonia/ Urea 40% Sales (USD): 1,249 M Sales (t): 1.7 M #1 Petrochemical Producer 2013 figures, including 50% interest in Profertil / K: thousands; M: million 16

17 Opportunities for the Petrochemical Industry The development of massive shale gas resources will signify strategic input availability at competitive prices. We are working together with other Companies towards new projects so as to expand the petrochemical industry in Argentina, focusing on the availability of new raw materials. 17

18 New Conditions for Investment Fiscal Stability New contractual terms 12% royalties during the first 25 years (3% max. from gross income). 25 years for conventional concessions, 30 years for offshore and 35 years for unconventional. 10 years extension to existing licensees. Gas production incentives New investment promotion Competitive bids Offshore areas assigned to ENARSA are transferred to the Federal Government Reduction of exploration permit periods Promotion of high-risk projects 7.5 USD/ Mbtu for new gas production. New projects of more than USD 250 M are entitled to tax exemption on exports after the 3rd year (20% for conventional and unconventional / 60% for offshore). Uniform biding to be agreed between Federal Government and Provinces, granted to highest bidder. These areas will be opened to competitive bids. Up to 6 years for conventional areas and 8 years for unconventional and offshore. Royalties reduction (up to 50%) for offshore, extra heavy oil and tertiary recovery. 18

19 Partner of choice for Unconventional in Argentina Key advantages in Argentina Long term contracts 25/35 years, 12% royalties Excellent connectivity and infrastructure 1,167 km crude oil transmission system - 1 crude oil export pipeline to Chile 14,800 km gas transmission system 5.5 BCF/d capacity - 12 international pipelines 2.5 BCF/d 10 refineries 639,000 bbl/d total capacity Promotion of investment New projects of more than USD 250 M are entitled to tax exemption on exports after the 3rd year (20% for conventional and unconventional / 60% for offshore). Improved Gas Prices 7.50 US$/Mbtu for new gas YPF Expertise Main hydrocarbon producer in Argentina (42% of Argentina total production) 91 concessions and 51 exploration blocks Excellent economies of scale in its operations Leader in unconventional wells in Argentina 3 times more activity than all other companies combined 3 rd largest unconventional acreage holder in America Fully integrated company (Upstream & Downstream) Main player in Vaca Muerta with unrivalled expertise in G&G and Ops 19

20 OUR ENERGY 20