Investor Presentation. Third Quarter 2015

Transcription

1 Investor Presentation Third Quarter 2015

2 Important Notice Safe harbor statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of This document contains statements that YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of These forward-looking statements may include statements regarding the intent, belief, plans, current expectations or objectives of YPF and its management, including statements with respect to YPF s future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes and reserves, as well as YPF s plans, expectations or objectives with respect to future capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond YPF s control or may be difficult to predict. YPF s actual future financial condition, financial, operating, reserve replacement and other ratios, results of operations, business strategy, geographic concentration, business concentration, production and marketed volumes, reserves, capital expenditures, investments, expansion and other projects, exploration activities, ownership interests, divestments, cost savings and dividend payout policies, as well as actual future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining margins and exchange rates, could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause such differences include, but are not limited to, oil, gas and other price fluctuations, supply and demand levels, currency fluctuations, exploration, drilling and production results, changes in reserves estimates, success in partnering with third parties, loss of market share, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, the risks of doing business in developing countries, legislative, tax, legal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, wars and acts of terrorism, natural disasters, project delays or advancements and lack of approvals, as well as those factors described in the filings made by YPF and its affiliates with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in particular, those described in Item 3. Key Information Risk Factors and Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects in YPF s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In light of the foregoing, the forward-looking statements included in this document may not occur. Except as required by law, YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized. These materials do not constitute an offer for sale of YPF S.A. bonds, shares or ADRs in the United States or otherwise. 2

3 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results 2015 Outlook

4 Corporate Governance Shareholder structure 1 Board composition Chairman of the Board, Mr. Galuccio 48.99% 51.0% Other Members Mr. Rodríguez Simón Mr. Nagel Mr. Donnini Mr. Di Pierro Mr. Vaquié Mr. Trotta Mr. Soloaga Mr. Gutiérrez(*) Mr. Felices (*) Mr. Montamat (*) Shares Class A Mr. Apud Company Executives Mr. Dasso Mr. González Mr. Alfonsi Argentine government Argentine government Series A Free float Ratings 0.01% (*) Members of the Audit Comittee Markets CCC AA (Arg) Caa1 N/A (Arg) YPF YPFD (1) As of 22/12/15 4

5 Leading Integrated Energy Co. in Argentina Revenues LTM 1 US$ 17,266 mm Adj. EBITDA LTM 1 2 US$ 5,013 mm Net income LTM 1 US$ 865 mm Employees 4 22,032 Exploration and production Downstream - refining and logistics Downstream - petrochemicals Downstream - marketing Major Affiliates Production 7 : 249 Kbbl/d of crude oil, 44 Kbbl/d of NGL and 44 Mm3/d of natural gas Proved Reserves 3 4 in : 675 mm bbl of liquids and 537 mm boe of gas Unique unconventional opportunities: Vaca Muerta, Lajas, Pozo D-129 Total refining Capacity: 320 Kbbl/d 4 5 (more than 50% 4 of Argentina s total capacity) High level of conversion and complexity Nearly 2,700 km 4 of crude oil and 1,801 km 4 of refined products pipeline The petrochemical business is integrated with the rest of the production chain Output Capacity: mm ton per annum The country s leading company in fuel marketing (56.5% 4 market share in diesel and gasoline) 1, service stations MEGA: Liquids separation and a fractioning plant Metrogas: Largest local gas distribution company Refinor: Refining, transportation and marketing of refined products Profertil: Fertilizer producer (urea and ammonia) AESA: Engineering, manufacturing, construction, operating and maintenance services to power and energy companies (1)YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using LTM Q average FX of 8.9. (2) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings. (3) Includes oil, condensates and liquids; converted using 1 boe = mmcf of gas as per 20-F. (4) As per 20-F (5) Does not includes 50% of Refinor (13 kbbl/d). (6) Excludes 71 Refinor service stations. (7) Q

6 Leading Argentine O&G Company Upstream Market Share Breakdown (%) Downstream Market Share Breakdown (%) Oil Production 1 Others 4% 4% 5% 6% 17% 19% 45% Crude Processing 3 No. of Gas Stations 3 Others 8% 13% 9% 15% 55% Others 27% 6% 6% 11% 15% 35% Gas Production 1 Source: IAPG (1) Cumulative Jan - Aug 2015 (2) Cumulative Jan Sep 2015 (3) As of December Others 16% 3% 5% 9% 9% 16% 42% Gasoline 2 Diesel 2 Others 14% 6% 5% 18% 57% Others 7% 15% 6% 13% 59% 6

7 Integrated Across Value Chain Oil business Domestic market Purchases Domestic market 76% Domestic prices (gasoline, diesel) 24% International prices (FO, bunker, jet fuel, petrochemicals, lubricants, LPG and others) 92% Production 249 Kbbl/d Export market Refining 297 Kbbl/d Exports International prices (naphtha, LPG, jet fuel, crude, petrochemicals, fuel oil, soybean oil and meal and others) 8% Natural gas business Upstream 44 mm m 3 /d + Imports (Gas purchased by ENARSA) + Purchases 0.1% 99% Exports Domestic market 52% 19% Residential + CNG 29% Industrial Power plants Production figures as of September 2015 / Domestic Market Sales of natural only correspond to YPF (does not include YSUR) 7

8 Seasoned Management Team Miguel Galuccio Chairman & CEO Before rejoining YPF, he was part of the management team of Schlumberger in London More than 20 years of international experience in the oil and gas industry, leading companies and working teams in the United States, Middle East, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Russia and China Oil engineer from the Technological Institute of Buenos Aires Daniel Gonzalez CFO Before joining YPF, he served for 14 years in the investment bank Merrill Lynch & Co in Buenos Aires and New York, holding the positions of Head of Mergers and Acquisitions for Latin America and President for the Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay), among others Bachelor in Business Administration from the Argentine Catholic University Jesus Grande VP Upstream Before YPF, he held various positions at Schlumberger, serving as Director of Human Resources; president of one of its service lines; head of Corporate Strategy Implementation. He has also served in executive and operational positions in Kuwait, Argentina, Brazil, Angola and the United States Engineer from the National University of Tucumán Fernando Giliberti VP Strategy and Business Development He previously served at YPF as Business Development Manager and Exploration and Production Business Development Director CPA from the Argentine Catholic University; earned an MBA from the Argentine University of the Enterprise, a Postgraduate Diploma in Management and Economics of Natural Gas from the College of Petroleum Studies, Oxford University, and master s degree in the Science of Management at Stanford University. Carlos Alfonsi VP Downstream Since 1987, he has held various positions at YPF, serving as an operations manager; the director of the La Plata refinery; operation planning director; director of commerce and transportation for Latin America; director of refinery and marketing in Peru; country manager for Peru; and R&M for Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Brazil Bachelor in Chemistry from Argentina s Technological University of Mendoza. In addition, he earned degree in IMD Managing Corporate Resources from Lausanne University and has studied at the MIT Local and international experience 15 + years of industry experience each 8 5

9 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results 2015 Outlook

10 Upstream - Significant Potential with Leading Market Position Cuyana Proved reserves: 69 mm boe % liquids: 98% % gas: 2% Production: 8.7 mm boe Neuquina Proved reserves: 692 mm boe % liquids: 45% % gas: 55% Production: mm boe Austral Proved reserves: 89 mm boe % liquids: 19% % gas: 81% Production: 10.5 mm boe Noroeste Proved reserves: 48 mm boe % liquids: 12% % gas: 88% Production: 7.8 mm boe Golfo San Jorge Proved reserves: 312 mm boe % liquids: 88% % gas: 12% Production: 44.3 mm boe YPF has 92 concessions in the most productive Argentine basins (total reserves 1P: 1,212 mm boe 1 ) and 48 exploration blocks in the country (44 onshore and 4 offshore) 1 Proved reserves 2 Production share 3 Gas 44% Liquids 56% Tecpetrol 2% Chevron 3% Sinopec 3% Pluspetrol 4% Wintershall 5% Total Austral 5% Others 12% Pan American 17% Petrobras 5% YPF 43% Source: Company data (1) As per 20-F (2) Includes international reserves of 2.3 MBOE (3) As of May Total: 1,212 mm boe Total: mm boe Source: IAPG, as of May

11 Recent Performance: Strong Emphasis in Production Increase Doubled investments Significant increase in activity Upstream Capex (US$ mm) 1 Drilling Rigs Workover Rigs 2, % 4, % 6, % % Q Q Reverted downward trend in production seen in recent years; solid growth Crude oil production (k bbl/d) % (vs. 2012) Natural gas production (mm m 3 /d) % (vs. 2012) Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 (1) Capex converted considering an average FX rate of 4.6, 5.5, 8.1 for 2012, and respectively Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q

12 Reserves Boosted proved reserves by 11.9%. Solid results coming from secondary recovery projects, tight gas and shale formations, extension of concessions and acquisitions. Total Hydrocarbon (Mboe) Liquids (Mbbl) Natural Gas (Mboe) RRR 163% RRR 144% RRR 184% +11.9% 1, % +18.0% 537 1,

13 Upside from Unique Unconventional Opportunities NOROESTE CHACO PARANAENSE Tested & Producing 4,4 Vaca Muerta (shale oil / gas) Agrio (shale oil) Lajas (tight gas) Mulichinco (tight gas) Other Opportunities Noroeste - Cretaceous Yacoraite (shale / tight oil & gas) Noroeste - Tarija Los Monos (shale gas) CUYANA NEUQUINA GOLFO SAN JORGE AUSTRAL Pozo D-129 (shale oil / tight oil) Neuquina Los Molles (shale/ tight gas) Golfo San Jorge Neocomiano (shale oil / gas) Chaco Paranaense Devonian Permian (shale oil) Cuyana Cacheuta (shale oil) Potrerillos (tight oil) Austral Inoceramus 13

14 Vaca Muerta Unconventional Formation Description Progress on Shale Oil & Gas Developments Dry gas Wet gas Oil Shale oil & gas Vaca Muerta Gross Area 30,000 km 2 Net YPF Area 12,472 km 2 Windows 1 Oil 77% Wet gas 5% Dry gas 18% 388 Shale wells in production Loma Campana (Oil) Horizontal well sweet spot identified in Loma Campana Three distinct horizons evaluated with delineation wells 2015 focus shifting to more cost effective horizontal wells 43 Shale wells drilled in Q El Orejano (Gas) 46.2 KBOE/D Shale Production First operated shale gas pilot started, with positive initial results 2015 focus on completing the pilot proyect with vertical and horizontal wells Sufficient gas processing capacity available Vaca Muerta Barnett Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Bakken TOC (%) Thickness (mts) Reservoir pressure (psi) 4,500-9,500 3,000-4,000 7,000-12,000 2,000-5,500 2,500-8,500 4,200 (1) Estimated over YPF net acreage Source: SPE, Wood Mackenzie and YPF data. 14

15 Republic of Argentina Neuquina Basin Neuquén Province JV Partners: Chevron, Dow, Petrolera Pampa and Petronas Loma Campana (395 km 2-97,607 acres) La Amarga Chica (187 km 2-46,189 acres) El Orejano (45 km 2-11,090 acres) Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km 2-45,200 acres) Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Oil with Chevron Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Oil with Petronas Objective: Vaca Muerta Shale Gas with Dow Objective: Mulichinco Tight Gas with Petrolera Pampa 3.3% of total YPF s VM acreage % of total YPF s VM acreage % of total YPF s VM acreage 3 (1) 395 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Development model 290 Km 2 (71,661 acres) Directional wells upside 105 Km 2 (25,946 acres) Pilot: 130 wells and US$1.24 bn (2) 187 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Pilot consisted on US$550 mm investment ~ 35 wells to be drilled both verticals and horizontal (3) 45 Km 2 / 12,075 Km 2 Initial investment of US$188 mm 16 wells to be drilled 1 st stage 40 km 2 of 3D seismic 34 wells to be drilled 2 nd stage 15 wells to be drilled Full program of ~1,500 wells (US$15 bn+) Estimated oil production: + 50 Kbbl/d Estimated gas production: 3 mm m 3 /d YPF Operates YPF Operates YPF Operates YPF Operates 15

16 Q Upstream Results Tight Gas Update Tight gas production in Q represented 12% of total gas production, compared to 10% in Q3. Loma La Lata (121 km 2 29,900 acres) (1) Objective: Lajas formation 100% YPF 7 wells drilled in Q (100 total wells drilled) Depth: 2,600 m to 2,800 m Rincón del Mangrullo (183 km 2-45,200 acres) Objective: Mulichinco formation 50% YPF 50% Petrolera Pampa 12 wells drilled in Q (73 total wells drilled) Depth: 1,600 m to 1,800 m Total Gross Production (Mm 3 /d) Total Gross Production (Mm 3 /d) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Q (1) Refers to Lajas prospective area called Segmento 5 in Loma La Lata block. 16

17 Downstream - Solid Market Leadership A Luján de Cuyo refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe Capacity: kbbl/d D Monthly Diesel Sales (Km 3 ) % 2015 B La Plata refinery Proved reserves: 85 M boe % liquids: 98 % gas: 2 Production: 8.8 M boe Capacity: 189 kbbl/d C A B Q Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec C Plaza Huincul refinery Capacity: 25 kbbl/d Monthly Gasoline Sales (Km 3 ) % Q Oil pipeline Products pipeline Terminals D Refinor (1) Capacity: 26.1 kbbl/d 350 Source: 20-F (1) YPF owns 50% of Refinor (not operated) (2) As of December (3) Cumulative Jan-Sep Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 17

18 Downstream: Recent Performance Refinery output affected by scheduled maintenance activity in La Plata Refinery. Sales volumes of diesel were negatively affected by weather conditions; strong sales of gasoline Crude Processed (kbbl/d) +4.3% -0.6% Gasoline sales (k m 3 ) +4% 4,545 4, % 1,158 1,208 Q3 Q Q3 Q Downstream CAPEX (US$ mm) 2 Diesel sales (k m 3 ) -3.4% % 1,039 +1% 8,098 8, % 2,160 2, (1) Capex converted considering an average FX rate of 4.6, 5.5 and 8.1 for 2012, and respectively Q3 Q

19 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results 2015 Outlook

20 Results Despite lower prices across most products, results were solid and in line with budget; difficult comparison against spectacular Q3 Revenues 1 (US$ mm) Adj. EBITDA (US$ mm) & Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) +6% 14,762 16,514 17,576 17,266 +4% 4,632 4,448 27% 29% 29% 36% 33% +17% 4,391 5,128 5,013-12% 1,649 1, LTM Q3 Q EBIT 1 2 (US$ mm) LTM Q3 Q Net Income 1 2 (US$ mm) EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) 1, % 2,445 2,202 1, % % 1,041 1, % LTM Q3 Q LTM Q3 Q (1) YPF financial statements values in IFRS converted to US$ using average FX of 4.6, 5.5, 8.1, 8.9, 8.3 and 9.2 for 2012,,, LTM Q3 2015, Q3 and Q respectively (2) Considers non recurrent result for Q2, not including a non cash provision of ARS 855 mm relating to claims arising from discontinuity of gas export contracts to Brazil in 2009 (3) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (Losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (Losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings 20

21 Quarterly evolution in US Dollars Last quarter s Adj.EBITDA was the second best in history Revenues (1) (in millions of USD) Adj. EBITDA (1) (2) (in millions of USD) 3,727 4,203 4,355 4,188 4,040 4,413 4,632 4,459 4,016 4,443 4,448 1,220 1,244 1,102 1,367 1,649 1,182 1,392 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Q (1) YPF financial statement values in IFRS converted to USD using average exchange rate for each quarter. (2) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income (loss) for non-controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income gains (losses) on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings. 21

22 Cash Flow From Operations Strong cash position at the end of Q despite lower cash flow from operations Difficult comparison with one-off Q3 Consolidated statement of cash flows 1 (US$ mm) Cash flow from operations 4 (US$ mm) 1, % 4, , ,159 Cash at the end of Q3 Cashflow from operations 2 3 Net financing Capex Cash at the end of Q Q3 Q (1) Cash converted to US$ using EOP FX rate of 8.4 and 9.4; Cash flow, Net financing and Capex converted to US$ using average of LTM Q FX rate of 8.9. (2) Includes effect of changes in exchange rates. (3) Effective spendings in fixed assets acquisitions during the year. (4) Converted to US$ using average FX rate of 8.2 and 9.4 for Q3 and Q3 2015, respectively. 22

23 Financial Situation Update (1) Cash position covers debt maturities for next 12 months. Continued to extend the average life of debt. Financial debt amortization schedule (in millions of USD) (1) (2) Debt profile highlights Peso denominated debt: 26% of total debt Average interest rates of 7.48% in USD and 23.82% in pesos 975 Average life of almost 4.7 years Net Debt / Adj. LTM EBITDA (3) = 1.37x Cash (1) As of September 30, 2015, does not include consolidated companies (2) Converted to USD using the September 30, 2015 exchange rate of Ps 9.4 to U.S.$1.00. (3) Net debt to Adj. EBITDA calculated in USD, Net debt at period end exchange rate of Ps 9.4 to U.S. $1.0 and Adj. EBITDA LTM at average LTM of Ps 8.9 to U.S. $1.00; 6,870 / 5,013 =

24 Consolidated Balance Sheet Balance sheet 9/30/15 (Ps million) 12/31/14 (Ps million) VAR % 2015 / Cash & ST investments 10,857 9,758 11% Fixed assets 194, ,930 24% Other assets 51,767 41,866 24% Total assets 256, ,554 23% Loans 75,246 49,305 53% Liabilities 94,607 86,468 9% Total Liabilities 169, ,773 25% Shareholders equity 86,818 72,781 19% Source: YPF financial statements 24

25 Consolidated Income Statement Income statement 12 months (Ps million) 12 months (Ps million) VAR % / 9M 2015 (Ps million) 9M (Ps million) VAR % 9M / 9M Revenues 141,942 90,113 58% 115, ,203 11% Operating income 19,742 11,160 77% 15,678 18,378-15% Adj. EBITDA 1 41,412 23,107 79% 35,967 32,975-18% Net income 2 9,002 5,125 76% 6,274 4,407 0% Source: YPF financial statements (1) Adjusted EBITDA = Net income attributable to shareholders + Net income for non controlling interest - Deferred income tax - Income tax - Financial income (losses) gains on liabilities - Financial income gains (losses) on assets - Income on investments in companies + Depreciation of fixed assets + Amortization of intangible assets + Unproductive exploratory drillings (2) Attributable to controlling shareholder. 25

26 Agenda Company Overview Upstream and Downstream Financial Results 2015 Outlook

27 Summary Continued to deliver solid results despite challenging global oil price environment and the effects of a strong peso Second best Adj.EBITDA in history Difficult operating environment in the Upstream segment but yet with positive results Strong local demand for our main products; resilient downstream business segment Tight and shale gas development progressing well; shale oil development addressing learning curve challenges

28 NUESTRA ENERGÍA 28