Martha Leiper Senior Vice President & Deputy Chief Investment Officer
|
|
- Juliana McKinney
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Investment Strategies Corporate Level Martha Leiper Senior Vice President & Deputy Chief Investment Officer Southeastern Actuaries Conference November 21, 2008
2 Table of Contents Current Environment The Lead-In CDOs Relevance to Insurance Investments Lessons Learned Opportunities Outlook 1
3 Current Environment The seizing up of the credit markets since mid-september has caused the economic outlook to deteriorate. Question: Is the US economy in a recession? Answer: Recent economic data suggest it began last quarter. 3Q GDP falls.3% as housing and auto weakness spread to other areas of the economy. Consumer spending declines for the first time since ISM manufacturing index plunges into a range consistent with recessionary slowdown. October export orders are weakest in two decades. Job losses accelerate. 2
4 Current Environment Housing at the epicenter of the financial crisis, shows no sign of stabilizing. Housing Starts Thousands, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, EcoWin, JPMorgan Asset Management. Data reflects most recently available as of 9/30/08. Home price based on median sales price of existing homes and arecumulative, not annualized. Existing-home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. In October, single family housing starts hit a 26-year low. Housing prices continued to decline. 3
5 Current Environment Manufacturing previously the bright spot in the US economy is showing weakness. Manufacturing in the US contracted in October at the fastest pace in 26 years. Exports have weakened as economies abroad falter. 4
6 Current Environment Consumer sentiment turns negative. Consumer Sentiment Index - University of Michigan Source: JPMorgan Including subsequent S&P 500 Index 12-month return Consumer Sentiment Low x% S&P 500 Return Over Next 12-mo s Employment - Total Non-farm Payroll Total job gain/loss (thousands) /31/ % 10/31/05 10/31/ % 2/28/75 5/30/ % +22.2% +18.1% '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 ' CSI drops 12.7 points in October. Delinquency Rates All banks, seasonally adjusted 4.5% Source: JPMorgan 4.3% 4.0% Consumer Loans (non -mortgage) 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 2.5% Residential Mortgages 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 ' Avg. monthly job loss in 08: -76,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Source: BLS, JPMorgan Asset Management. Data reflects most recently available as of 9/30/08. Labor market has weakened. Delinquency rates trend higher. 5
7 Current Environment - Financial Markets Remain Extremely Volatile The destruction in shareholder wealth over the past 2 months has been dramatic. S&P 500 Index 1,600 Mar. 24, 2000 P/E (tr) = ,527 March 2000 Peak vs. Today: Characteristic 3/2000 9/2008 Oct. 9, 2007 P/E (tr) = ,565 1,400 Index Level 1,527 1,166 P/E Ratio (tr) 30.9x 18.8x Dividend Yield 1.2% 2.4% 10-yr. Treasury 6.2% 3.8% -25% 1,200 1,000-49% +101% Sep. 30, 2008 P/E (tr) = 18.8 P/E (fw) = , Dec. 31, 1996 Oct. 9, 2002 P/E (tr) = 19.2 P/E (tr) = '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Source: Standard & Poor s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, JPMorgan Asset Management. S&P 500; still searching for a bottom? 46% decline by mid-october. Writedowns by financials continue to pummel the S&P 500. Volatility is at historically wide levels. Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged to an intra-day record. 6
8 The Lead-In: Markets Pulse Length of Economic Expansions and Recessions Since Average Length (months): Expansions: 45 months 100 Recessions: 14 months Recessions and Market Returns Return Length During 6-mo's Year (months) Recession After % 12.2% % 16.4% % 20.4% % 9.0% % 20.6% % 1.1% % 8.2% % 18.8% % 4.0% % -4.5% AVG % 10.6% Source: NBER, Standard & Poor s, JPMorgan Asset Management. History doesn t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Mark Twain 7
9 N U G G E T T A G : u s e r N a m e = n u l& p lo t N a m e = n u l The Lead-In: How did we get here? Investors and Wall Street have a short memory. Default Rates During the 2001/2002 corporate fraud era, defaults increased; spreads widened, equity markets declined. 1,000 Corporate Spreads 800 Source: LehmanLive.com This was followed by a very benign risk environment. Tight credit spreads Low default rates Strong demand for credit Which created an opportunity for the structured credit market to boom. US Credit A OAS US Credit BAA OAS US High Yield OAS 8
10 The Lead-In: Demand for investments was greater than supply Institutional investors, hedge funds, private equity firms and sovereignwealth funds had cash to invest. Investors searched for yield. Low interest rates Tight spreads Low volatility Virtually no defaults 9
11 Collateralized Debt Obligations - CDOs Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) unregulated type of asset-backed security and structured credit product. Constructed from a portfolio of fixed-income assets Assets are divided into tranches by ratings Losses are applied in reverse order of seniority $Bn 600 Global CDO Market Issuance Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association CDOs offered returns that were often 2% - 3% higher than similarly rated corporate bonds. Demand for synthetic CDOs surged. 10
12 CDOs turn Toxic The math ended up driving the way CDO portfolios were put together. Bankers loaded the securities with bonds and swaps offering the highest return for a given credit rating Many institutions lacked the competency to monitor credit performance and/or estimate expected cash flows Approximately $254 billion of CDOs tied to sub-prime mortgages have defaulted. Losses on CDOs tied to corporate credit may spark the next round of writedowns. 11
13 Relevance to Insurance Investments The bulk of a life insurance company s general account is typically invested in fixed income securities. Provides a steady stream of income Allows matching of asset and liability cash flows and duration Minimal RBC change versus equities or alternative assets Bonds as a % of Invested Assets Large Company Comparison Public Company Comparison Mutual Company Comparison Large Company Composite represents an asset-weighted average of 19 large life insurers. Mutual Company Composite includes: Mass Mutual, Nationwide, New York Life, Northwestern, Pacific Life, and TIAA. Source: J.P. Morgan 12
14 Relevance to Insurance Investments As investors searched for yield, the allocation to structured products increased. Composition of the Bond Portfolio as a % of Total Bonds US Gov't & Agency Debt Credit Structured Short-Term Large Company Comp. Public Company Comp. Mutual Company Comp. Large Company Comp. Public Company Comp. Mutual Company Comp. Large Company Comp. Public Company Comp. Mutual Company Comp Source: J.P. Morgan 13
15 Lessons Learned Stick to Fundamentals The Components of Insurance Investment Strategy Business Strategy Liability Characteristics Investment Operations Strategic Asset Allocation Tactical Asset Allocation Investment strategy is designed to help operating businesses keep the promises they make to customers: For policyholders with current claims, funds are available for timely payment. For all other policyholders, the company s financial future is secure. For potential policyholders, pricing is competitive. From a shareholder perspective, the investment strategy is designed to support business strategy and generate an acceptable return while protecting against threats to capital formation, liquidity and valuation. 14
16 Lessons Learned Go back to basics Set investment objectives and risk budgets. Adjust your asset allocation to your risk tolerance. Include the possibility of tail risk Diversification matters Mind the correlations Manage Liquidity Maintain robust ALM process. 15
17 N U G G E T T A G : u s e r N a m e = n u l& p lo t N a m e = n u l Opportunities Confidence in the financial system is at an all-time low. Shift in concern in recent weeks from financial crisis to global recession. Spreads on investment-grade credits are at historically wide levels. Corporate Spreads 1, US Credit A OAS US Credit BAA OAS US High Yield OAS Issuer Rating Maturity Spread Yield Kimberly Clark A2/A 10-yr % 3M Company Aa1/AA 3-yr % CSX Transportation A2/A- 6-yr % PepsiCo Aa2/A+ 10-yr % IBM A1/A+ 10-yr % 16
18 Outlook - What Next? Health of financial sector Next shoes to fall? CDS credit cards industrial credits state government funding issues such as California Increasing defaults LBO debt from recent years will be hard to refinance Government response of new administration Global slowdown 17
19 Outlook There is Hope Markets eventually recover from even the sharpest downturns. Peak to Trough Months to Recapture Loss from Trough Recession Decline 25% 50% 75% 100% % % crash -34% % % % (so far) TO BE DETERMINED Source: Wachovia Securities Market Returns After Consecutive Down Years (S&P 500 Index) 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% -71% Source: JPMorgan 148% Great Depression -34% 100% World War II 57% -42% -40% Oil Crisis 67% Internet Bubble War on Terrorism 18
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW
December 2014 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC 241 Third Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54494 715-422-0700 http://buenavistainv.com December 2014 Why Portfolios Remain Diversified
More informationA Detailed Analysis of U.S. Bear Markets
March 2016 CONTENTS 1. Abstract 1. Definition and characteristics of bear markets 2. Length of bear markets 4. Bear market severity 5. Recovery periods 6. Bear markets and the economy 8. Bear markets and
More informationCredit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference
Credit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference May 13, 2008 Janet L. Yellen President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Overview Financial
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationJoseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery
Joseph S Tracy: A strategy for the 2011 economic recovery Remarks by Mr Joseph S Tracy, Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at Dominican College, Orangeburg, New York, 28
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession
North American Economic Outlook: Climbing Out of Recession Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (1) 97-731 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com November 17, 9 U.S. Economic
More informationNonfarm Payroll Employment
PRESIDENT'S REPORT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF BOSTON Current Economic Developments - June 10, 2004 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy continues to
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationThe Economic Outlook for 2007
The Economic Outlook for 7 Harvey Rosenblum Executive Vice President & Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presented (with minor modifications) by: John V. Duca, Vice President and Senior
More informationThe Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook
The Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook National Economists Club Washington, DC March 27, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist Recession Risk, Housing Contraction Worsen 1-in-2 chance of recession in
More informationCapital Market Trends and Forecasts
Capital Market Trends and Forecasts Glenn Yago, Ph.D. Director, Capital Studies Milken Institute Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension System Education Retreat January 7, 28 1 Dow Jones U.S. Financial Index
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationPalm Beach County School District
Palm Beach County School District Investment Performance Review Quarter Ended March 31, 2008 Investment Advisors Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, Managing Director 300 S. Orange Avenue, Suite 1170 Orlando,
More informationChanneling Growth Capital to Small and Medium-Size Businesses. Global Conference 2010
Channeling Growth Capital to Small and Medium-Size Businesses Global Conference 2010 Channeling Growth Capital to Small and Medium-Size Businesses Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 6:30-7:45 AM Moderator: Betsy
More informationOverview & Outlook for the P/C Insurance Industry: Focus on Illinois
Overview & Outlook for the P/C Insurance Industry: Focus on Illinois Central Illinois CPCU Chapter I-Day Bloomington, IL November 5, 2015 Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
More informationThe U.S. Economy After the Great Recession: America s Deleveraging and Recovery Experience
The U.S. Economy After the Great Recession: America s Deleveraging and Recovery Experience Sherle R. Schwenninger and Samuel Sherraden Economic Growth Program March 2014 Introduction The bursting of the
More informationBOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA
BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA May 5, 2017 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Raising rates? Raising rates more this year? Next?
More informationDEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT. Number 52. August 1, Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression
DEPRESSION SPECIAL REPORT Number 52 August 1, 2009 Current Economic Downturn Is Worst Since Great Depression Recession Started a Year Earlier Than Official Reckoning Business Contraction Triggered Systemic
More informationBUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
BUENA VISTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT FOURTH QUARTER 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET REVIEW Buena Vista Investment Management LLC P.O. Box 1206 241 3 rd Street South Wisconsin Rapids, WI 54495-1206 715-422-0700 buenavistainv@buenavistainv.com
More informationR cession Economics NBER says U.S. recession began December 2007
Recession Economics Christopher Thornberg Founding Principal, Beacon Economics NBER says U.S. recession began December 2007 MonDec1, 12:20pmET WASHINGTON (Reuters) The U.S. economy slipped into recession
More informationRecession Now Putting Our Forecast Where Our Mouth Has Been February 4, 2008
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Paul L. Kasriel Director of Economic Research 312..15 312.557.2675 fax plk1@ntrs.com Asha Bangalore Economist
More informationU.S. Corporate Issuers: Rising Corporate Funding Costs And Market Volatility Could Not Deter Upgrades In 1Q2018
U.S. Corporate Issuers: Rising Corporate Funding Costs And Market Volatility Could Not Deter Upgrades In 1Q2018 S&P Global Fixed Income Research April 2018 U.S. Corporate Credit Market: Rating Actions
More informationTHE SKINNY. CG s Market Commentary
THE SKINNY CG s Market Commentary Third Quarter 2016 THE SKINNY Third Quarter 2016 U.S. EQUITY MARKETS ENDED SEPTEMBER WITH MIXED RESULTS. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 0.41% loss for the month,
More information4. Credit markets. (Chart 28) Corporate bond spreads (Japan) % points 0.6. Aa A Baa
. Credit markets Credit spreads remained at extremely tight levels (Chart 8). The favorable environment for financing through products such as CPs, corporate bonds, syndicated loans and securitized products
More informationBeryl Credit Pulse on Structured Finance
Beryl Credit Pulse on Structured Finance This paper will summarize Beryl Consulting 2010 outlook and hedge fund portfolio construction for the structured finance sector in light of the events of the past
More informationWill The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage
More informationIs it 1932 o r 1942, 1958,
Volume 23, No. 1, April 24, 2009 CWS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC CWS Capital Partners LLC Is it 1932 o r 1942, 1958, 1962, 1970, 1975, 1978, 1982, 2002? CALENDAR OF EVENTS Monday, May 25, 2009 Memorial Day, CWS
More information2019 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing U.S. EQUITIES. John D. Linehan, CFA CIO, Equity, Portfolio Manager November 13, 2018
2019 Global Market Outlook Press Briefing U.S. EQUITIES John D. Linehan, CFA CIO, Equity, Portfolio Manager November 13, 2018 U.S. Equity Outlook: Summary ENVIRONMENT Market ascended to all-time highs
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationCLOSER LOOK DOMESTIC FIXED INCOME
CLOSER LOOK DOMESTIC FIXED INCOME DATA AS OF AUGUST 2016 Presented to: Presented by: Presented on: Pennsylvania Association of Public Employee Retirement Systems Ryan Labs Asset Management (Daniel J. Lucey,
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationACG Market Review. Second Quarter Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity
ACG Market Review Second Quarter 2018 Global Highlights: Economy Announced tariffs have so far failed to slow down economic activity Equities U.S. equites turn positive for the year backed by strong corporate
More informationPNC Investment Perspective
March/April 2014 PNC Investment Perspective Decoupling of Developed and Emerging Markets? Jim Dunigan Mr. Dunigan is Executive Vice President and Managing Executive, Investments for PNC Asset Management
More informationMoving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment
Moving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Steve Faber, Managing Director Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies September 18, 2018 PFM 1 Today
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationMarch 2008 Third District Housing Market Conditions Nathan Brownback
March 28 Third District Housing Market Conditions Nathan Brownback By many measures, the economy of the Third District closely tracks the national economy. Thus far in the current housing cycle, this appears
More informationHow We're Doing: What s Blocking the Recovery
How We're Doing: What s Blocking the Recovery Karen Dynan, Vice President and Co-Director, Economic Studies Ted Gayer, Co-Director, Economic Studies Alan Berube, Senior Fellow and Research Director, Metropolitan
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Volusia Building Industry Association July 18, 218 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More informationThere has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
More informationQuarterly Update: The Economic Downturn in Historical Context
Quarterly Update: The Economic Downturn in Historical Context Dinah Walker Analyst, International Economics dwalker@cfr.org May 29, How do the recent economic collapse and recovery match up with past cycles?
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationTom Flynn Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
Investor Community Conference Call 2008 Risk Review Tom Flynn Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer May 27 2008 Forward Looking Statements Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Bank of
More informationHow to Earn Double-Digit Returns While Avoiding Major Down Markets in a Safety-First Approach
AAII Orange County Chapter Meeting Saturday April 27, 2013 How to Earn Double-Digit Returns While Avoiding Major Down Markets in a Safety-First Approach 9:00 10:30 Presentation 10:30 o 11:00 Q&A Today
More informationCapital Markets Update
Capital Markets Update The Forces Transforming Markets November 2007 The Past December 2006 April 2007 The Height of the Market November 2007 Changes in Risk Tolerance Spring 2007 Rating Agencies Tighten
More informationThe Great Recession How Bad Is It and What Can We Do?
The Great Recession How Bad Is It and What Can We Do? Helen Roberts Clinical Associate Professor in Economics, Associate Director University of Illinois at Chicago Center for Economic Education Recession
More informationRBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management
RBC Global Asset Management Daniel E. Chornous, CFA Chief Investment Officer RBC Global Asset Management November 212 % Global Investment Outlook PMIs swing upward 65 Global Purchasing Manager's Indices
More informationAn Update on Economic Conditions. January 5, 2010
An Update on Economic Conditions Raymond Owens January 5, 21 Real Gross Domestic Product 8 7 6 5 4 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 3 Q3 2.2% 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
More informationFixed Income Investing in a Low Yield World: High Yield Bonds Still Part of the Solution. Fall 2012
Fixed Income Investing in a Low Yield World: High Yield Bonds Still Part of the Solution Fall 2012 U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields October 5, 2012 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1.74% 0 Jan-82 Feb-86 Mar-90 May-94 Jun-98
More informationNationalEconomicTrends
NationalEconomicTrends January 00 Stag-nations Economic growth in the United States has slowed substantially since the days of rapid expansion during the mid to late 1990s. According to preliminary estimates,
More informationWHY THE ECONOMY PROVIDES THE RIGHT ROADMAP FOR MITIGATING RISK
WHY THE ECONOMY PROVIDES THE RIGHT ROADMAP FOR MITIGATING RISK De-Risking a Portfolio During Recessionary Periods When implementing a risk management strategy, it s not about trying to time the top of
More informationTen years after: Implications of the current financial market turmoil. Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor Bank of Thailand
Ten years after: Implications of the current financial market turmoil Dr. Atchana Waiquamdee Deputy Governor Bank of Thailand I. The 1997 East Asia Crisis II. Latest Episode Causes of the 1997 Crisis 3
More informationEmerging Market Equities SPRING The Current Opportunity SBH INTERNATIONAL EQUITY TEAM WHITE PAPER
Emerging Market Equities The Current Opportunity SPRING 2017 SBH INTERNATIONAL EQUITY TEAM WHITE PAPER KEY POINTS Emerging market (EM) equities have offered significant return and diversification potential
More informationFocus On... CapitalMarkets. Senior Loans Understanding the Asset Class. What are senior loans?
CapitalMarkets Focus On... Senior Loans Understanding the Asset Class As investments based on senior loans become more popular, it is important that investors fully understand what they are and how they
More informationKeith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor
The Outlook for the Texas Economy Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor National Economic Overview Growth in US Economy Positive But Sluggish Market working to heal itself asset prices falling, inflation
More informationThe Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
More informationU.S. Slack Keeps Shrinking, Slowed But Not Stopped By Global Headwinds; Case For Fed Tightening Builds
U.S. Slack Keeps Shrinking, Slowed But Not Stopped By Global Headwinds; Case For Fed Tightening Builds QE To End, Bond Yields To Rise: Just What The G-7 Does Not Need For The End Of 2! Carl Weinberg, Chief
More informationUFS. Fixed Income. John Rosenthal Senior Managing Director MetLife
UFS Fixed Income John Rosenthal Senior Managing Director MetLife Safe Harbor Statement These materials contain statements which constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
More informationThe Young-at-Heart Economy
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY SPRING 2018 The Young-at-Heart Economy 5 REASONS WE DON T EXPECT AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN SOON SUMMARY ANTHONY CHAN, PhD CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Anthony is a member of the J.P. Morgan
More informationEconomic Groundhog Day
Economic Groundhog Day Early Signs of Spring or Six More Months/Years of Economic Winter? May 2009 Columbia Management Group, LLC ( Columbia Management ) is the investment management division of Bank of
More informationMonthly Market Update August 2016
Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationU.S. Economic Update and Outlook. Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 2013
1 U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Laurel Graefe, REIN Director Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta October 2, 213 Following the deepest recession since the 193s, the economic recovery is well under way, though
More informationThe U.S. Economy Does the Recovery Have Legs?
The U.S. Economy Does the Recovery Have Legs? Prepared for: Federation of Tax Administrators Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference Tempe, Arizona September 3, Presented by: Cynthia M. Latta Managing
More informationKEY ECONOMIC AND MARKET INDICATORS
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS Latest Report Current Report Previous Report 2017 ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP Q1 2.3% 2.9% 2.3% EMPLOYMENT Non-farm Payrolls (000s) Mar 164 135 2,173 Private Payrolls (000s) Mar 168 135
More informationUNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION
UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. 5700 Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA 15237-5829 Phone: (412) 548-1386 E-mail: wealth@emergingwealth.com Legend
More informationFixed income. income investors. Michael Korber Head of Credit. August 2009
Fixed income Old lessons re-learned for income investors Michael Korber Head of Credit August 2009 Role of fixed income in a portfolio The role of fixed income in a portfolio a fixed or floating rate of
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationHousing and Credit Markets Outlook
Housing and Credit Markets Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Springfield, IL Amy Crews Cutts, SVP Chief Economist October 7, Equifax Inc. Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling! As of October 1 st
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Miami-Dade County 305-375-1879 cruzr1@miamidade.gov www.miamidade.gov/economicdevelopment Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 1 Local economic indicators
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report. June 2014
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report June 1 Overview of the Economy In the U.S., the Federal Reserve s Beige Book report on the economy through late May indicated that
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist
Robert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Office of Economic Development and International Trade Miami-Dade County cruzr1@miamidade.gov / www.miamidade.gov/oedit Office of Economic Development and International
More informationAngel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC
Angel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC Angel Oak Multi-Strategy Income Fund Quarterly Review March 31, 2018 Quarter in Review Risk assets were weaker in the first quarter driven primarily by rising rates, expectations
More information12/29/ /30/2018 Change
1st Quarter 2018 Trump administration trade policies have moved to the forefront. The U.S. has proposed 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum for selected countries. In addition, Trump initially proposed
More informationThe Great Depression. Economic Forces in American History
The Great Depression Economic Forces in American History The Great Depression: Outline Contours of the Decline Explaining the Downturn Explaining the Severity Some old explanations Some recent explanations
More informationMarket Focus. Credit cycle: rising default rate. Where do we stand in the default rate cycle? Credit fundamentals are deteriorating
At the beginning of 215, we began forecasting the end of the credit cycle. Since then, corporate fundamentals, rating trends, and default rate data have all deteriorated. Moody s speculative default rate
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationMukund Sheorey President
7 US Economic Outlook What Time Is It? To everything (turn, turn, turn) There is a season (turn, turn, turn) And a time for every purpose, under heaven - The Byrds, 195 Economic Cycles An enduring characteristic
More informationSPECIAL REPORT. TD Economics CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS TO LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH
SPECIAL REPORT TD Economics CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS TO LEAD ECONOMIC GROWTH Highlights American consumers have has had a rough go of things over the past several years. After plummeting
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationM&A, Private Equity and Capital Markets Update
M&A, Private Equity and Capital Markets Update April 211 DRAFT M&A Market Drivers DRAFT Macroeconomic Conditions Favorable For M&A GDP growth expected to continue The second half of 29 exhibited the first
More informationEconomic recovery dashboard
CURRENT AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2009 Economic recovery dashboard Summary of current state Market indicators Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX increased, closing the month at 30.69,
More informationThe Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal
NationalEconomicTrends October Monetary Policy Stance: The View from Consumption Spending The Federal Reserve has set the target range for the federal funds at to 5 percent and intends to keep this near
More informationCDO Market Overview & Outlook. CDOs in the Heartland. Lang Gibson Director of Structured Credit Research March 25, 2004
CDO Market Overview & Outlook CDOs in the Heartland Lang Gibson Director of Structured Credit Research March 25, 24 23 featured record volumes despite diminishing arbitrage Global CDO Growth: 1995-23 $
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Economy & Labor Markets Strong Enough, First Rate Hike Expected in December MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: November 2015 This month s outlook largely mirrors
More informationTHE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION June 2009 Report Out of Intensive Care Out of Intensive Care David Shulman Senior Economist UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2009 It s very easy to forget, in your
More informationData current as of: August 5, ,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , ,000
Forecast Version: Spring 216 Economic Indicators The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 287, in June with the unemployment rate rising.2% to 4.9%. The jobs
More informationJohn Deehan - Investment Sales Manager
The investment cycle The return of volatility & The importance of being selective for multi asset investors in the current environment John Deehan - Investment Sales Manager Multi-Asset Choice Cost efficient
More information2012 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad
N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H 212 As the Fundamentals Improve Stateside, They Deteriorate Abroad December 211 Paul L. Kasriel, Chief Economist PH: 312..15 plk1@ntrs.com
More informationFEBRUARY 2018 OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY 2018 OUTLOOK Ladenburg Thalmann FEBRUARY 2018 This presentation has been prepared exclusively for use with Ladenburg Thalmann analysts. It is not intended for, and should not be used with, any
More informationIs a Recession Imminent? Why Investors Should Not Fear For Now.
Is a Recession Imminent? Why Investors Should Not Fear For Now. 2016 Contents Overview 1 Are We Close to a Recession Now? How Can We Tell? Indicator 1: Real Income 4 Indicator 2: Employment 8 Indicator
More informationFirst Quarter 2017 Investment Review. Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL (312)
First Quarter 2017 Investment Review Prepared by: Meketa Investment Group CHICAGO, IL 60661 (312) 474-0900 MARKET SUMMARY - 1Q17 CAPITAL MARKETS Index MARKET SNAPSHOT MARCH 31, 2017 Qtr One Year Three
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationCapital Market Review
Capital Market Review September 3, 215 Percent Percent MARKET/ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Risk Reprices Rapidly 2,2 1,9 1,6 1,3 S&P 5 April 29, 211 to Oct 3, 211 157 Days -19.4% May 21, 215 to Sep 3, 215 132 Days
More informationMarket Snapshot. Liz Ann Sonders Senior Vice President Chief Investment Strategist Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. December, 2014
Market Snapshot Liz Ann Sonders Senior Vice President Chief Investment Strategist Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. December, 2014 GDP s components and latest reading % of real GDP 2Q14 annualized Q/Q % change
More informationRISK. Investor Community Conference Call REVIEW. BOB McGLASHAN Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer
Q3 20 RISK REVIEW Investor Community Conference Call BOB McGLASHAN Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer August 28 20 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Bank
More informationFIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY January 25 2016 FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial; Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial; Barry
More information1.2 Product nature of credit derivatives
1.2 Product nature of credit derivatives Payoff depends on the occurrence of a credit event: default: any non-compliance with the exact specification of a contract price or yield change of a bond credit
More informationRisultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari. Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari
Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari Stagflation What does it look like? UK growth and inflation % % 8 25 6 4 2-2 -4 Trend growth
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationEconomic Forecast for 2009
Economic Forecast for 2009 by David M. Mitchell Director Bureau of Economic Research College of Humanities and Public Affairs Missouri State University 2009 Economic Forecast National Economic Conditions
More information