Emerging Shale Gas Plays

Transcription

1 Larry Benedetto

2 Emerging Shale Gas Plays Bakken Antrim Mancos New Albany Marcellus Palo Duro Woodford Fayetteville Floyd Delaware Haynesville Barnett Source: Howard Weil Shale gas regions

3 A Typical Shale Gas Decline Curve Source: Howard Weil Months

4 Ft. Worth Basin Barnett Shale Barnett Oil Play Western Extension Area Ft. Worth Johnson County Southern Extension Area Barnett Oil Barnett Gas EOG Acreage Source: EOG Resources

5 Barnett Shale Assumptions Core Development Well Profile Barnett Shale Reserves per Well (Bcfe, gross) 1.6 Core Reserves per Well (Bcfe, gross) 1.6 Development Cost ($/Mcfe) $1.38 Core Development Cost ($mm/well) $2.2 Henry Hub Benchmark Price ($/Mcfe) $7.50 Realized Barnett Shale Price ($/Mcfe) $6.95 Net Revenue Interest 80% Discount Rate 10% MidYear Convention (1 Y, 0 N) 1 Operating Costs (Opex $/Mcfe) $0.70 Non-Core Development Well Profile Barnett Shale Reserves per Well (Bcfe, gross) 1.2 Non-Core Reserves per Well (Bcfe, gross) 1.2 Development Cost ($/Mcfe) $1.22 Non-Core Development Cost ($mm/well) $1.4 Henry Hub Benchmark Price ($/Mcfe) $7.50 Realized Barnett Shale Price ($/Mcfe) $6.95 Net Revenue Interest 80% Discount Rate 10% MidYear Convention (1 Y, 0 N) 1 Operating Costs (Opex $/Mcfe) $0.70 Maintenance Capex ($/Mcfe) - Op Costs ($/Mcfe) 0.70 NPV/Well ($mm) $2.81 $/Mcfe $1.76 Maintenance Capex ($/Mcfe) - Op Costs ($/Mcfe) 0.70 NPV/Well ($mm) $2.16 $/Mcfe $1.85 Source: Howard Weil & EOG Resources

6 Mid-Continent Region Resource Plays ANADARKO SHELF NFX Office Tulsa T E X A S MOUNTAIN FRONT GOLDEN TREND O K L A H O M A ARKOMA BASIN Source: Newfield WOODFORD SHALE

7 Woodford Shale O K L A H O M A Recent Extended Laterals 4,700 laterals 9 stage fracs Completed well cost: $6.7 MM Estimated reserves / well: >4.5 Bcfe 46 Active Industry Rigs 12 Operated NFX Rigs 183 NFX Operated HZT Wells 548 Industry HZT Wells Source: Newfield

8 Woodford Shale Assumptions Verticals Intermediate Laterals Longer Laterals EUR (Bcfe) Cost ($MM) $4 $5 $7 F&D ($/mcfe) $ 2.50 $ 2.08 $ 1.94 Op Costs ($/mcfe) $1.15 $1.15 $1.15 1st Month IP (MMcf/d) Decline 1 67% 67% 67% Decline 2 35% 35% 35% Decline 3 23% 23% 23% Decline 4 20% 20% 20% Decline 5 14% 14% 14% Terminal 6% 6% 6% Life (years) NPV/well ($/mcfe) $0.23 $1.89 $3.28 NPV ($$) $225, $1,887, $3,269, IRR 10% 18% 21% Source: Howard Weil & Newfield

9 Fayetteville Shale Focus Area Source: Southwestern Energy

10 Fayetteville Shale Assumptions Shorter Laterals Longer Laterals Development Upside EUR (Bcfe) Cost ($MM) $2.3 $3.0 $2.8 F&D ($/mcfe) $1.80 $ 1.57 $ 1.47 Op Costs ($/mcfe) $ st Month IP (MMcf/d) Decline 1 60% 55% 55% Decline 2 30% 32% 32% Decline 3 19% 19% 19% Decline 4 14% 14% 14% Decline 5 11% 11% 11% Terminal 9% 9% 9% Life (years) NPV/well ($/mcfe) $2.32 $3.91 $4.20 NPV ($$) $7,251, $12,435, $15,186, IRR 36% 44% 51% Source: Howard Weil & Southwestern Energy

11 Marcellus Shale PC EXPL TKI RRC EOG TKI Chief CHK RRC Atlas Chief PetroEdge PetroEdge Atlas PetroEdge CHK CHK COG XTO acreage Other operator Marcellus activity Shale thickness Source: Linn Energy Source: XTO

12 Monthly Natural Gas Production Report Gross Withdrawals of Natural Gas 1, February 2007 February 2008 (BCF/D) Source: EIA-914

13 Disclaimer Analyst Certification I, Larry Benedetto, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Larry Benedetto, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report. Additional Disclaimers and Disclosures Important Disclosures This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. As such, the financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions based upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Investors should consider Howard Weil s research and/or ratings as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. Past performance of the financial instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Howard Weil Incorporated is a multidisciplined financial services firm that regularly intends to seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports, and thereby seeks to receive compensation from these companies for services including, but not limited to, acting as an underwriter in an offering or financial advisor in a merger or acquisition, or serving as a placement agent for private transactions. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. For applicable current disclosures for all covered companies, please write to the Howard Weil Research Department at the following address: Howard Weil Research Department 1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500 New Orleans, Louisiana The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed reliable, but is not guaranteed by us and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data, nor is it considered an offer to buy or sell any securities referred to herein. No investments or services mentioned are available in the European Economic Area to private customers or to anyone in Canada other than a Designated Institution. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Howard Weil Incorporated or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed within. This may be considered advertising under federal law. If you decide not to receive Howard Weil products and services, updates, and information via , please reply to howardweil@howardweil.com and ask to be removed. Additional information is available upon request Member FINRA Member SIPC 1100 Poydras Street, Suite 3500, New Orleans, LA /2008 Howard Weil Incorporated