Rig Activity, Production and Trends

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Rig Activity, Production and Trends"

Clyde West
5 years ago
Views:

Analytics 120 employees 400+ Clients Based in Denver,

Pipelines, Utilities, Midstream Financial and Hedge

Platts (McGraw-Hill) What We Do Reports and Consulting

2 Who is Bentek Energy? Who We Are 33% 5% 40% Premier Energy Data and Analytics 120 employees 400+ Clients Based in Denver, Colorado 22% Majors, Producers, Mktrs, Industrials Pipelines, Utilities, Midstream Financial and Hedge Government, Associations, Consultants Division of Platts (McGraw-Hill) What We Do Reports and Consulting Services Collect, Analyze, Interpret and Distribute Data, Information and Knowledge to the Energy Industry

Why does natural gas production continue to grow, despite lower rig

3 Agenda What factors are driving producer activity across the US? Where are producers targeting rig activity? Why does natural gas production continue to grow, despite lower rig counts and a shift in resources away from dry plays? Is there demand to support US production potential?

4 Gas, Oil and NGL Price Comparison: MMBTU Equivalent $/MMBtu Equivalent $30.00 $30.00 $25.00 $25.00 $20.00 $20.00 $15.00 $15.00 $10.00 $10.00 $5.00 $5.00 $0.00 $0.00 CAPP WTI HH MB NGL Brent 4

Oil Plays are at the top of the IRR Stack Eagle Ford Oil Perm Delaware Bakken Utica Wet Miss Lime Cleve-Tonk Niobrara Marcellus Wet Perm Midland Eagle Ford Wet Perm Central Uinta Granite Wash

5 Oil Plays are at the top of the IRR Stack Eagle Ford Oil Perm Delaware Bakken Utica Wet Miss Lime Cleve-Tonk Niobrara Marcellus Wet Perm Midland Eagle Ford Wet Perm Central Uinta Granite Wash Cana-Woodford Marcellus Dry Fayetteville Haynesville Pinedale Ark-Wood Piceance 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% IRR July 2013 Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $3.39-$3.87/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $89-$101/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $24-$51/barrel)

6 Oil-Weighted Production Tilts Play Economics 100% 80% 90% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% % of Production 50% 40% IRR 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Oil % Gas % NGL % IRR Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point as of July2013 (price range $3.39-$3.87/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential as of July 2013 (price range $89-$101/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo average forward Mt. Belvieu prices and the typical composition in each region (range $24-$51 barrel)

Oil and NGL Plays Earning the Highest Returns Bakken 58% Pinedale 12% Uinta 38% Piceance 7% Niobrara 54% Cleve/Tonk 55% 57% Miss Lime Utica 58% 22%/ 24% MarcellusDry 69% 51%

Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point as of July2013 (price range $3.39-$3.

7 Oil and NGL Plays Earning the Highest Returns Bakken 58% Pinedale 12% Uinta 38% Piceance 7% Niobrara 54% Cleve/Tonk 55% 57% Miss Lime Utica 58% 22%/ 24% MarcellusDry 69% 51% MarcellusWet Dry Gas Play Oil and/or Liquids Play 154% Granite Wash 35% Permian Delaware Basin 64% Eagle Ford Oil/Wet 32% Cana-Wood 72%/ 63% 42% 9% 13% Arkoma-Wood Haynesville Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point as of July2013 (price range $3.39-$3.87/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential as of July 2013 (price range $89-$101/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo average forward Mt. Belvieu prices and the typical composition in each region (range $24-$51 barrel) Source: BENTEK

Plays With High Returns Attract Drilling Rigs 33/+8 50/+22 4/+1 20/-10 3/+0 4/-4 Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines CALIFORNIA OTHER ROCKIES 28/+19 178/+101 POWDER RIVER WIND

8 Plays With High Returns Attract Drilling Rigs 33/+8 50/+22 4/+1 20/-10 3/+0 4/-4 Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines CALIFORNIA OTHER ROCKIES 28/ /+101 POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER GREEN RIVER UINTA SAN JUAN 14/-9 PICEANCE 0/+0 RATON PERMIAN 460/+242 WILLISTON 47/+29 D-J ANADARKO 206/+84 56/-53 FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT 116/ /+148 EAST TX 59/+0 2/-27 35/-55 34/-95 ILLINOIS ARK FAYETTEVILLE 4/-2 32/+28 12/+4 14/-23 ARK WOODFORD ARKLA TX GULF EAGLE FORD 12/-3 105/+21 MICHIGAN 20/+9 AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF UTICA OFFSHORE 51/-25 43/+25 1/-11 OTHER APPALACHIAN MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 1853 CHANGE +504 Source: BENTEK, Aug Active rig count: Aug. 16, 2013 / Change in rig count from Jan. 1, 2010

Rig Count Lower Compared to 2012 33/-4 50/-10 4/-1 20/-9 3/-1 4/-6 Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines CALIFORNIA OTHER ROCKIES 28/+8 178/-3 POWDER RIVER WIND

2/-20 35/-44 34/-35 ILLINOIS ARK FAYETTEVILLE 4/-2 32/+20 12/+4 14/-16 ARK WOODFORD ARKLA TX GULF EAGLE FORD 12/-19 105/+17 MICHIGAN 20/+6 AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF UTICA OFFSHORE

9 Rig Count Lower Compared to /-4 50/-10 4/-1 20/-9 3/-1 4/-6 Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines CALIFORNIA OTHER ROCKIES 28/+8 178/-3 POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER GREEN RIVER UINTA SAN JUAN 14/-8 PICEANCE 0/+0 RATON PERMIAN 460/+3 WILLISTON 47/+4 D-J ANADARKO 206/-27 56/-44 FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT 116/ /-32 EAST TX 59/+1 2/-20 35/-44 34/-35 ILLINOIS ARK FAYETTEVILLE 4/-2 32/+20 12/+4 14/-16 ARK WOODFORD ARKLA TX GULF EAGLE FORD 12/ /+17 MICHIGAN 20/+6 AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF UTICA OFFSHORE 51/-66 43/+20 1/-2 OTHER APPALACHIAN MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 1853 CHANGE -223 Source: BENTEK, Aug Active rig count: Aug. 16, 2013 / Change in rig count from Jan. 6, 2012

10 U.S. Horizontal Wells Climb Despite Rig Drop Number of Wells/Rigs Wells per Month per Rig 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, U.S. Horizontal Drilling Dynamics Horizontal Wells Drilled Horizontal Rigs Wells Drilled per Rig per Month 10

11 Oil and Liquids Directed Drilling Offsets Gas Rig Declines No. Rigs Bcf/d 3,000 2,500 Rig Count by Class vs. Gas Production ,000 1,500 1, Rigs Targeting Gas Rigs Targeting Oil/Liquids Natural Gas Production

12 No. Days Efficiencies Across the Board Days Required to Drill One Well Haynesville Eagle Ford Marcellus Barnett Fayetteville

13 Shale Gas Development Rates Are Increasing Bcf/d Marcellus ( 09) 6.0 Haynesville ( 07) Barnett ( 02) Eagle Ford ( 10) Fayetteville ( 05) Years Barnett Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Source: Bentek Updated 8/30/2013

14 Bcf/d Impact of Shale Gas Production Bakken (ND & MT) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA) Fayetteville (AR) Woodford (OK) Barnett (TX) Shale Gas Production Source: Bentek 14

Dry Gas Plays Remain Uneconomic through 2018 Eagle Ford Oil Perm Delaware Utica Oil Bakken Utica Wet Anad - Miss Lime Anad - Cleve/Tonk Niobrara Marcellus Wet Perm Midland Eagle Ford Wet Perm Central

15 Dry Gas Plays Remain Uneconomic through 2018 Eagle Ford Oil Perm Delaware Utica Oil Bakken Utica Wet Anad - Miss Lime Anad - Cleve/Tonk Niobrara Marcellus Wet Perm Midland Eagle Ford Wet Perm Central Basin Uinta Granite Wash Cana-Woodford Marcellus Dry Fayetteville Haynesville Pinedale Arkoma-Woodford Piceance 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jul July 2013 Price Assumptions: Gas = 12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $3.39-$3.87/Mcf) Oil = 12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $89-$101/barrel) NGLs = weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $24-$51/barrel) 2018: Gas = $4.28/Mcf, NGLs = $36.60/barrel, Oil = $79.75/barrel 2023: Gas = $4.82/Mcf, NGLs = 34.82/barrels, Oil = $89.26/barrel

16 Marcellus and Eagle Ford Lead in Production Growth Targets Bcf/d Production Change: 2018 vs

17 MMb/d U.S. & Canadian Production to Grow 4 MMb/d by U.S. & Canadian Production Forecast Rest of U.S. Permian Bakken Eagle Ford Offshore Canada Source: HPDI & August 2013 BENTEK Crude Oil PADD Balances 17

18 US Gas Demand to rise to 90 Bcf/d by 2023 Bcf/d US Natural Gas Demand (History & Forecast) Exports to Mexico PipeLoss Industrial ResComm Power LNG Exports

19 Mb/d Waterborne Imports Pushed Out by Growing US Oil Production 9,000 Waterborne Imports 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, PADD I PADD III PADD V Eastern Canada Source: BENTEK May 2013 Crude Oil PADD Balances 19

20 Key Takeaways Economics will continue to drive Oil/NGL directed drilling, pushing gas and oil production higher. Producers will chase the robust returns earned in the Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken and Anadarko. LNG export facilities, industrial projects and power generation provides demand for growing natural gas production. Without new refineries or the ability to export oil, the US market will absorb increased oil production by pushing out waterborne imports.

BENTEK Energy Questions? Contact Catherine at: cbernardo@bentekenergy.com 720-264-6600 DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS.

BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE.

21 BENTEK Energy Questions? Contact Catherine at: DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY.