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2 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at HEDGEYE 2

3 3MO HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

4 3MO HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 39% 76% 48% 61% The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%. 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% CASH U.S. EQUITIES INT'L EQUITIES COMMODITIES FOREIGN EXCHANGE FIXED INCOME April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

5 1 2 3 POTUS LOAN GROWTH FRANCE

6 POTUS In case you missed it, Trump went for the campaign opinion takeback trifecta yesterday telling the WSJ that he likes Janet Yellen, he prefers a low interest rate policy and he won t label China as a currency manipulator. If you re keeping score, that compares with the campaign commentary that Janet should be ashamed for using overly accommodative policy to support an overinflated stock market and that addressing Chinese currency manipulation would be a first and top priority. Bond Yields and the Dollar dutifully rolled over to close on the lows. Bureaucrat commentary and peri European election chop aside, we expect the slopes of growth and inflation will continue to define the Trend movement in rates and the $USD.

7 LOAN GROWTH Remember when loan growth was allegedly rolling over? Well that s not what the big banks are saying this morning. For example, amid JP Morgan s massive EPS and revenue beat this morning ($1.65/share vs. $1.52; $25.6B vs. $24.9B), the one thing that s standing out to us is loan growth, which was up +9% YoY vs. an expected growth rate of +2%. CEO Jami Dimon confirmed as much in the accompanying statement: We are off to a good start for the year with all of our businesses performing well and building on their momentum from last year. U.S. consumers and businesses are healthy overall and with pro-growth initiatives and improving collaboration between government and business, the U.S. economy can continue to improve. Move along, macro tourists. Nothing to see here

8 UK A survey out of the British Chambers of Commerce for Q shows an increase in manufacturing and service sector confidence, an increase in expectations for the price of goods over the next three months, and the strongest UK export growth since late We remain bullish on UK equities (EWU) and the British Pound (GBP) over the longer term (2-3 years).

9 MACRO & HOUSING CHRISTIAN DRAKE

10 U.S. AUTO S

11 THE ARCHETYPICAL BUBBLE CYCLE HEDGEYE 11

12 AUTO DEMAND = SOURCE: BLOOMBERG HEDGEYE 12

13 SUPPLY = SOURCE: MANHEIM HEDGEYE 13

14 SUPPLY = SOURCE: BLOOMBERG HEDGEYE 14

15 PRICES = HEDGEYE 15

16 PRICES = HEDGEYE 16

17 MATURITY, INCENTIVES SOURCE: AUTODATA, BEA, EXPERIAN, GOLDMAN SACHS HEDGEYE 17

18 AUTO LENDING = TIGHTER HEDGEYE 18

19 DELINQUENCIES = HEDGEYE 19

20 AUTOS: MACRO WEIGHTINGS HEDGEYE 20

21 LABOR = STILL STRONG SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 21

22 AUTOS = MID CYCLE SOURCE: BLOOMBERG HEDGEYE 22

23 SELF-REINFORCING DYNAMICS Supply, Demand used & off lease inventory piles up prices go down prices down = higher lease costs for consumers because residual values go down + lower trade-in values & rising negative equity in new car loans higher cost = incremental drag on demand demand down = prices (& dealer incentives) correct further & on, in circular, self-reinforcing fashion HEDGEYE 23

24 MACRO GRIND

25 3MO HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

26 3MO HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

27 3MO HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

28 3MO HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

29 HEDGEYE SECTOR 3MO RELATIVE PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

30 HEDGEYE 3MO STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

31 3MO HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

32 CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL 3MO NET LONG POSITIONING April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

33 MARKET SHARE 3MO VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

34 3MO KEY $USD CORRELATIONS April 13, 2017 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW