1 Crosby, Daniel. The Behavioral Investor
|
|
- Virgil McLaughlin
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 December 28th, This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures.
2 There are two types of momentum that we use in our analysis. Relative momentum is the first, whereby we compare securities, sectors, and asset classes to one another and sort by strength. The idea is to buy the strongest positions and sell the weakest ones. Time-series momentum (also referred to as absolute momentum) is where we measure the momentum of the price of a security relative to its historical price over time. Securities that exhibit positive momentum over time are expected to continue to demonstrate positive performance. Both relative and time-series momentum have well documented academic support, some of which can be found in our resources section on our website. For the purposes of this writing we are going to focus intently on time-series momentum or the trend of asset prices. Trend-following is a key element of our approach to markets and the analysis of market trends is one of the four key components of our macro framework. We wanted to explain why trends are important to our framework and explain a little more about how we apply trend following in our approach. The idea of following the trend is essentially cutting your losses short and letting your winners run. It is based on the concept of buying what is going up and selling what is going down. Why would such a strategy work in markets? It seems far too simple to be useful. It is rather simple, but we believe that simplicity is beauty in this case. It is our opinion that trend-following, and relative momentum for that matter, have worked historically and will continue to work going forward because of the behavior of market participants. By work, we simply mean provide attractive risk-adjusted returns. Investors are bipolar, and the various behavioral biases that we all fall victim to create price trends. Overconfidence creates a self-fulfilling cycle of price increase when an investor buys a security only to see its price increase, and then becomes overconfident in the securities future prospects and buys more. Herd mentality causes us to buy securities that have already run far past fair value because of our inner fear of missing out. As Dr. Daniel Crosby points out in his book, The Behavioral Investor 1 : As part of our framework, price trends inform us of market sentiment in real time. Through a simple rules-based approach, we are able to ascertain whether market participants are optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the underlying security. A common mistake investors often make is assuming that the crowd is wrong. There is such a halo around being a contrarian these days that sometimes novice investors claim this title too soon. Being early is also called being wrong. The crowd is often wrong at extremes. Other times, it pays to be aligned with the crowd. Picking out extremes is a tough business and this form of timing is more luck than skill in our opinion. We believe that a well defined, simple, rules-based approach to following market trends is a better way to go. 2 1 Crosby, Daniel. The Behavioral Investor WealthShield LLC. All Rights Reserved. This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures. For adviser use only.
3 Take Meb Faber s paper, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation 2, where he demonstrates how using a simple 10-month moving average (200 day moving average used monthly) could help investors increase returns while reducing risk. Essentially he recommended buying when the S&P closed the month above its moving average, then selling and going to cash when it closed below its moving average. The 10 month moving average was used as a trend filter. When above it, the S&P 500 was in a positive trend, and when below, a negative trend. The idea was to buy when it was going up and sell when it was going down. The results in the paper were impressive. From , the proposed strategy would have returned 10.18% with a standard deviation (volatility) of 11.97%. The S&P 500 buy and hold model would have returned 9.32% with a standard deviation of 17.87%. The paper demonstrated that you didn t need to be contrarian to get better risk adjusted returns. You could invest with the crowd and actually do alright. Trend following success is not isolated to whitepapers and academic literature. There are real track records of traders that have built their careers using this discipline to invest. The SG Trend Index tracks the 10 largest (by assets under management) trend following CTAs (commodity trading advisors) and can be compared to the S&P 500. In the chart below, the grey area chart is the SG Trend Index. The red line is the S&P 500. The chart goes back to December 1999 and illustrates the similar growth between the two indices over that time period. In our opinion, the important thing to note is the volatility difference between the two indices. They may arrive near the same point at the end, but the path is very different. Over this time period, the market (S&P 500) suffered two drawdowns of over 50%. Buy and hold investors would have had to suffer through watching their investments get cut in half, not once, but twice. On the other hand, trend followers (the SG Trend Index) were somewhat impervious to the equity market volatility. 3 Source: Societe Generale 2 Faber, Meb, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation (February 1, 2013). The Journal of Wealth Management, Spring Available at SSRN: WealthShield LLC. All Rights Reserved. This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures. For adviser use only.
4 In the book, Trend Following with Managed Futures 3, authors Alex Greyserman and Kathryn M. Kaminski analyze a unique data set of 800 years worth of asset price history. Their study demonstrates that This leads us to believe that the SG Trend index illustration above is not an anomaly. So how do we use trend-following in our framework? We track asset classes, styles, factors, countries, sectors, and individual securities relative to their historical prices to determine direction. We also compare offensive assets against defensive assets by analyzing the ratios against their respective historical values over time. This allows us to get a reading on the underlying psychology of market participants at that moment in time. When the positioning is negative in nature, we suggest a risk mitigation posture. When sentiment is positive, we recommend an offensive posture. In the illustration below we show the MSCI All Country World All-Cap Index relative to its 10 month exponential moving average. The MSCI website states that, Therefore, this index should give us a good approximation of a total global market portfolio. Currently, this index is in a negative trend relative to its moving average, which is indicative of negative market sentiment in global equities. MSCI All Country World All-Cap Index 3 Alex Greyserman and Kathryn M. Kaminski, Trend Following with Managed Futures (Wiley, 2014) WealthShield LLC. All Rights Reserved. This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures. For adviser use only. 4
5 A defensive asset, like Gold, can also be compared to its long-term moving average to determine sentiment. In the chart of Gold below, we illustrate that the barbaric relic is currently in a positive trend, climbing above its 10 month moving average recently. When defensive assets are trending positive at the same time that risky assets are in negative trends, market participants seem to be shifting more pessimistic. This psychological shift could just be a flash in the pan or it could signal something more dire, like the end of the growth phase of the business cycle. Gold remains above its 200 day moving average and is up over 1.83% this week. The trend is your friend is a common wall street adage that is foundational to our framework. The good thing is that trend-following and momentum investing are grounded in academic research and behavioral finance. We are confident that as long as human beings are investing in markets, trend-following will remain viable. Right now, global market trends are negative for risk assets and positive for defensive ones. Trend following helps us adapt to changing market dynamics and shifting psychology. This, combined with the other components of our framework (valuations, fed policy, and economic growth), help us stay in tune with our environment and invest accordingly. 3 Alex Greyserman and Kathryn M. Kaminski, Trend Following with Managed Futures (Wiley, 2014) WealthShield LLC. All Rights Reserved. This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures. For adviser use only. 5
6 Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This is WealthShield s current assessment of the market and may be changed without notice. The visuals shown are for illustrative purposes only and do not guarantee success or certain level of performance. This material contains projections, forecasts, estimates, beliefs and similar information ( forward looking information ). Forward looking information is subject to inherent uncertainties and qualifications and is based on numerous assumptions, in each case whether or not identified herein. This information may be taken, in part, from external sources. We believe these external sources to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. There is no guarantee of the future performance of any WealthShield portfolio. The investment strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Before investing, consider your investment objectives and WealthShield's charges and expenses. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Benchmarks: The index / indices used by WealthShield have not been selected to represent an appropriate benchmark to compare an investor s performance, but rather are disclosed for informational purposes. Detailed information regarding the indices is available upon request. The volatility of the indices may be materially different than that of the portfolio. WealthShield is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about WealthShield including its advisory services and fee schedule can be found in Form ADV Part 2 which is available upon request. This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Please see attached disclosures. 6
Chart 1: Market Cap to GDP (Buffett Indicator) - The US stock market is still highly valued despite the recent performance. 2
December 24th, 2018 1 Since our framework turned negative in October, we have suggested that being defensive was the proper posture. We continue to support that assertion given the current market environment.
More informationChart 1: Dow Jones Industrial Average. Chart 2: Dow Jones Transportation Average
December 17th, 2018 1 You are probably going to hear a lot about Dow Theory in the coming days and weeks. Just like the death crosses that have been occurring in several broad market indices, Dow Theory
More informationChart 1: S&P 500 Death Crosses since 1923;
December 10th, 2018 1 Last week we had a death cross in the S&P 500 and the 3 year minus 5 year Treasury yield curve went negative (inverted). These two events had talking heads claiming everything from
More informationChart 2: Long-term valuation metrics suggest US stocks to be highly valued.
November 19th, 2018 1 This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
More informationDoes Portfolio Rebalancing Help Investors Avoid Common Mistakes?
Does Portfolio Rebalancing Help Investors Avoid Common Mistakes? Steven L. Beach Assistant Professor of Finance Department of Accounting, Finance, and Business Law College of Business and Economics Radford
More informationCan Behavioral Factors Improve Tactical Performance?
Can Behavioral Factors Improve Tactical Performance? More and more, Financial Advisors agree that portfolios with a tactical tilt provide increased asset allocation flexibility that can improve returns
More informationA new direction in. Retirement Investing
A new direction in Retirement Investing Target date funds have been increasing in popularity since their introduction in the early 1990 s. The idea that an individual can make one simple choice and be
More informationCan Behavioral Factors Improve Tactical Performance?
Can Behavioral Factors Improve Tactical Performance? Feb 20, 2018 C. Thomas Howard, Ph.D. CEO and Director of Research AthenaInvest Advisors LLC More and more, Financial Advisors agree that portfolios
More informationVolatility/Vix Trading. Your Step-by- Step Guide to Stock Trading
Volatility/Vix Trading Your Step-by- Step Guide to Stock Trading and Options Trading with Volatility Table Of Contents Introduction Chapter 1 What Is Volatility? Chapter 2 The Volatility Index Chapter
More informationCHAPTER 3.4. Trading Psychology
CHAPTER 3.4 Trading Psychology TRADING PSYCHOLOGY Stock and CFD traders have to not only compete with other traders in the stock and CFD markets but also with themselves. Often as a stock or CFD trader
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JANUARY 2018 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) -80.00% ABCERI S&P GSCI ER
More informationDual Momentum Investing. Gary Antonacci Portfolio Management Consultants
Dual Momentum Investing Gary Antonacci Portfolio Management Consultants Gary Antonacci Over 4 years experience with underexploited investments first place winner of the NAAIM Wagner Award Author of Dual
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JUNE 2017 80.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% -80.00% ABCERI S&P GSCI ER BCOMM ER
More informationDURSO WEALTH MANAGEMENT GROUP AT MORGAN STANLEY April 29, 2016 ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE
ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE The risk-on rotation that took hold in early February continued through the end of the first quarter and has spilled over to the month of April. What has changed? Global recession fears
More informationFactor Performance in Emerging Markets
Investment Research Factor Performance in Emerging Markets Taras Ivanenko, CFA, Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Alex Lai, CFA, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Factors can be defined
More informationLumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold Offense and Defense in Active Portfolio Management
Lumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold Offense and Defense in Active Portfolio Management Abstract 2015 Wagner Award Submission National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) By Charles V. Bilello,
More informationTeam Dynamics within Global Equity
Client Memo Q1 2013 Team Dynamics within Global Equity by Global markets remain an interesting area within asset management as more and more plans allocate a significant portion of their equity to global
More informationExploiting the Inefficiencies of Leveraged ETFs
Exploiting the Inefficiencies of Leveraged ETFs [Editor s Note: Here at WCI we try to keep things as simple as possible, most of the time. Not today though. Today we re going to be discussing leveraged
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JULY 2017 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P
More informationPRESENTS CHARTING MADE EASY ALL TRADING INFORMATION REVEALED
PRESENTS CHARTING MADE EASY ALL TRADING INFORMATION REVEALED 1 INTRODUCTION Over the years, investors have developed literally, hundred thousand of different technical market indicators in their efforts
More informationChapter 3.3. Trading Psychology
1 Chapter 3.3 Trading Psychology 0 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY Forex traders have to not only compete with other traders in the forex market but also with themselves. Oftentimes as a Forex trader, you will be your
More informationAlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model
AlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model An investment model based on trending and momentum strategies Portfolio Goals Primary: Seeks long term growth of capital by investing in highranked U.S. Equity Sectors
More informationTrading the Unexpected: Pattern Failures
Trading the Unexpected: Pattern Failures December 16, 2013 Outline What does unexpected mean? The psychology of trading the unexpected Developing the mental skills to handle trading surprises Two ways
More informationH1 2018: First Half of 2018
ASTOR DYNAMIC ALLOCATION STRATEGY 2018 PERFORMANCE REVIEW H1 2018: First Half of 2018 This document will discuss three (3) main topics: 1. Review of the Astor Dynamic Allocation (ADA) Strategy investment
More informationMethodology document. December Individual goals differ greatly. We continually assess returns.
Methodology document. Objective based asset allocation. Individual goals differ greatly. We incorporate behavioural finance. Our allocations are not set-and-forget. We continually assess returns. An important
More informationManaged Futures Strategies Re-Position for Trends Outside of Equities A Sign that Markets May be Ready for Change
Managed Futures Strategies Re-Position for Trends Outside of Equities A Sign that Markets May be Ready for Change By Dr. Kathryn Kaminski, CAIA Chief Research Strategist, Portfolio Manager Robert Sinnott,
More information1. Introduction 2. Chart Basics 3. Trend Lines 4. Indicators 5. Putting It All Together
Technical Analysis: A Beginners Guide 1. Introduction 2. Chart Basics 3. Trend Lines 4. Indicators 5. Putting It All Together Disclaimer: Neither these presentations, nor anything on Twitter, Cryptoscores.org,
More informationNo duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author.
Copyright Option Genius LLC. All Rights Reserved No duplication of transmission of the material included within except with express written permission from the author. Be advised that all information is
More informationAlphaSolutions Momentum High Equity Model
AlphaSolutions Momentum High Equity Model An investment model based on trending and momentum strategies Portfolio Goals Primary: Seeks long term growth of capital by investing in highranked Global Equity
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JANUARY 2018 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P
More informationAlphaSolutions Blended Bull/Calendar
AlphaSolutions Blended Bull/Calendar An investment model based on trending strategies coupled with market analytics for downside risk control with predetermined investment periods Portfolio Goals Primary:
More informationLC DIVERSIFIED STRATEGY OVERVIEW
LC DIVERSIFIED STRATEGY OVERVIEW NOTE: This document is intended to provide only a basic overview of the LC Diversified Investment Strategy and is not intended to take the place of advice your particular
More informationAPRIL 2015 ISSUE This report is similar to that of the FED minutes. Only minor changes take place each month.
APRIL 2015 ISSUE This report is similar to that of the FED minutes. Only minor changes take place each month. The first quarter of this year has been painfully slow and the AlgoTrades system is in the
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS SEPTEMBER 2018 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX
More informationSTRATEGY OVERVIEW. Opportunistic Growth. Related Funds: 361 U.S. Small Cap Equity Fund (ASFZX)
STRATEGY OVERVIEW Opportunistic Growth Related Funds: 361 U.S. Small Cap Equity Fund (ASFZX) Strategy Thesis The thesis driving 361 s traditional long-only equity strategies is based on the belief that
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JUNE 2018 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P
More informationQuantitative Trading System For The E-mini S&P
AURORA PRO Aurora Pro Automated Trading System Aurora Pro v1.11 For TradeStation 9.1 August 2015 Quantitative Trading System For The E-mini S&P By Capital Evolution LLC Aurora Pro is a quantitative trading
More informationRisk Mitigation Focus
SSI Investment Management November 2018 Risk Mitigation Focus By: Ken Raguse, CFA, Portfolio Manager Any uncertainty that has the potential to prevent investors from reaching their objective can be considered
More informationTREND FOLLOWING WITH A TWIST
HTBWS TREND FOLLOWING WITH A TWIST A simple, trend following, portfolio strategy for stocks that incorporates PE ratios. JB MARWOOD.com Disclaimer: This is an educational document and distributed with
More informationWhen Does Trend Following Kick In?
HIGHLIGHT TO ORDER, EMAIL US info@equinoxfunds.com Trend-followers will often lose money on long equity positions in the early stages of a bear market. If the bear continues to develop, trendfollowers
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS APRIL 2017 80.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% -80.00% ABCERI S&P GSCI ER BCOMM ER
More informationDynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection
Dynamic Asset Allocation for Practitioners Part 1: Universe Selection July 26, 2017 by Adam Butler of ReSolve Asset Management In 2012 we published a whitepaper entitled Adaptive Asset Allocation: A Primer
More informationSpecialist International Share Fund
Specialist International Share Fund Manager Profile January 2016 Adviser use only Specialist International Share Fund process process for this Fund is structured in the following steps: Step 1 Objectives:
More informationChart 2: Oil prices are down considerably. This suggests that inflation is slowing.
November 12th, 2018 1 This is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell a particular security. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
More informationAs Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017
2017 Review and 2018 Outlook As Good as it Gets Title of Goldman Sachs Research Paper, November 15, 2017 2017 was a remarkable year in many ways. Despite a myriad of reasons to worry about potential pitfalls,
More informationres Key Ideas great or Over the
Investor Guide Managed Futur res Key Ideas Managed Futures seeks to take advantage of trends in global asset classes These strategies have historically performed best when markets went from good to great
More informationCHAPTER 5 RESULT AND ANALYSIS
CHAPTER 5 RESULT AND ANALYSIS This chapter presents the results of the study and its analysis in order to meet the objectives. These results confirm the presence and impact of the biases taken into consideration,
More informationAdvisor Briefing Why Alternatives?
Advisor Briefing Why Alternatives? Key Ideas Alternative strategies generally seek to provide positive returns with low correlation to traditional assets, such as stocks and bonds By incorporating alternative
More informationTrading Market Cycles
Trading Market Cycles January 13, 2014 Market Cycles The Wyckoff Cycle Behavioral and Psychological Cycles Cycles in prices Cycles in volatility Cycles in equilibrium/disequilibrium The Wyckoff Cycle The
More informationSTRATEGY INSIGHT EUROPEAN LONG/SHORT
STRATEGY INSIGHT EUROPEAN LONG/SHORT FEBRUARY 2018 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY In today s markets, investors are increasingly seeking greater stability in returns and managed volatility as well as an
More informationBecoming a Consistent Trader
presented by Thomas Wood MicroQuant SM Divergence Trading Workshop Day One Becoming a Consistent Trader Risk Disclaimer Trading or investing carries a high level of risk, and is not suitable for all persons.
More informationYIELD SELECT. Strategy Overview ASSET MANAGEMENT
YIELD SELECT Strategy Overview ASSET MANAGEMENT THE SELECT STRATEGIES Balancing the Need for Income and Growth The path to establishing financial security for retirement can take many routes. How much
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JANUARY 2019 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P
More informationAdverse Active Alpha SM Manager Ranking Model
CONSULTING GROUP INVESTMENT ADVISOR RESEARCH DECEMBER 3, 2013 Adverse Active Alpha SM Manager Ranking Model MATTHEW RIZZO Vice President Matthew.Rizzo@ms.com +1 302 888-4105 Introduction Investment professionals
More informationThe Truth About Top-Performing Money Managers
The Truth About Top-Performing Money Managers Why investors should expect and accept periods of poor relative performance By Baird s Advisory Services Research Executive Summary It s only natural for investors
More informationSpotlight on: 130/30 strategies. Combining long positions with limited shorting. Exhibit 1: Expanding opportunity. Initial opportunity set
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS Spotlight on: 130/30 strategies Monetizing positive and negative stock views Managers of 130/30 portfolios seek to capture potential returns in two ways: Buying long to purchase a stock
More informationDalbar 2017: Investors Suck At Investing & Tips For Advisors
Dalbar 2017: Investors Suck At Investing & Tips For Advisors September 25, 2017 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice Several years ago, I began writing an annual update discussing Dalbar s Quantitative
More informationWallStreetCourier.com Starter Kit & Guidelines. How to maximize your results with WallStreetCourier.com. 1 v1.
WallStreetCourier.com Starter Kit & Guidelines How to maximize your results with WallStreetCourier.com www.wallstreetcourier.com 1 v1.7 Philosophy & Services of WallStreetCourier.com 2 www.wallstreetcourier.com
More informationAsset Allocation Portfolios
Asset Allocation Portfolios Christopher Eckert Senior Vice President Wealth Management Senior Portfolio Manager Financial Advisor 320 Post Road West Westport, CT 06880 phone: 203-222-4057 toll-free: 866-740-7841
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JULY 2018 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) -80.00% ABCERI S&P GSCI ER BCOMM
More informationWhy Managed Futures? Vittorio Faillace
Why Managed Futures? Vittorio Faillace +41 (0) 43 455 75 75 vittorio.faillace@gapzurich.ch The Case for Managed Futures In today s investment arena, with an ever-increasing need for diversification, transparency,
More informationTrading Market Cycles. Adam Grimes Waverly Advisors, CIO
Trading Market Cycles Adam Grimes Waverly Advisors, CIO Market Cycles The Wyckoff Cycle Behavioral and Psychological Cycles Cycles in prices Cycles in volatility Cycles in equilibrium/disequilibrium The
More informationMANAGED ACCOUNTS. Portfolio Solutions. Providing the guidance and flexibility to meet your customized investing needs
MANAGED ACCOUNTS Portfolio Solutions Providing the guidance and flexibility to meet your customized investing needs INTRODUCING PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS When it comes to achieving your financial goals, here
More informationAI: Weighted Sector Strategy DEC
KEN STERN & ASSOCIATES DEC 31 2016 1 Tactical Rebalanced AI: Strategy DEC 31 2016 Ken Stern & Associates Strategy seeks to track the investment results of the Morgan Stanley Capital International USA Investable
More informationQ Commentary & SERVICES GROUP, INC. EALTH - # -
Q1 2015 Commentary Overview As expected, 2015 started out with an increase in volatility across all asset classes. Global stocks experienced many large intraday moves, interest rates tested historic lows,
More informationFlash Note Equity investment strategies
FLASH NOTE Flash Note Equity investment strategies Market leadership of US Value' strengthens considerably in the aftermath of US elections Pictet Wealth Management - Asset Allocation & Macro Research
More informationSophisticated investments. Simple to use.
TARGET DATE STRATEGY FUNDS Sophisticated investments. Simple to use. INVESTED. TOGETHER. Now your default option can be your best option. If your target date funds are projected to be the majority of your
More informationTrade Signals New All Time High, Trend Evidence Remains Positive
cmgwealth.com http://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/trade-signals-new-all-time-high-trend-evidence-remains-positive/ Trade Signals New All Time High, Trend Evidence Remains Positive S&P 500 Index 2100 By Steve Blumenthal
More informationDo Moving Average Strategies Really Work?
Do Moving Average Strategies Really Work? August 19, 2014 by Paul Allen Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
More informationImprove Investor Outcomes with Tac tical Allocation
Improve Investor Outcomes with Tac tical Allocation About Meeder 1974 Tactical Focused on tactical asset allocation and a pioneer of defensive investing Time-tested Managing client assets for more than
More informationSTRATEGIC. Sophisticated investments. Simple to use. Target Date Strategy Funds. russellinvestments.com
STRATEGIC Sophisticated investments. Simple to use. Target Date Strategy Funds russellinvestments.com Finding the right target date fund options is key. If your target date funds are projected to be the
More informationMOMENTUM INVESTING: SIMPLE, BUT NOT EASY
MOMENTUM INVESTING: SIMPLE, BUT NOT EASY As Of Date: 9/5/2018 Wesley R. Gray, PhD T: +1.215.882.9983 F: +1.216.245.3686 ir@alphaarchitect.com 213 Foxcroft Road Broomall, PA 19008 Empower Investors Through
More informationTotal
The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,
More information- Mark Twain s notice to readers of Huckleberry Finn
February 14, 2018 PERSONS attempting to find a motive in this narrative will be prosecuted; persons attempting to find a moral in it will be banished; persons attempting to find a plot in it will be shot.
More informationLazard Insights. Distilling the Risks of Smart Beta. Summary. What Is Smart Beta? Paul Moghtader, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst
Lazard Insights Distilling the Risks of Smart Beta Paul Moghtader, CFA, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Summary Smart beta strategies have become increasingly popular over the past several
More informationHOW WE INVEST WHITE PAPER STRATEGIC TILTING. By David Iverson and Alex Bacchus JULY
HOW WE INVEST WHITE PAPER STRATEGIC TILTING By David Iverson and Alex Bacchus JULY 2017 www.nzsuperfund.co.nz email:enquiries@nzsuperfund.co.nz PREFACE The Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation uses
More informationMinimizing Timing Luck with Portfolio Tranching The Difference Between Hired and Fired
Minimizing Timing Luck with Portfolio Tranching The Difference Between Hired and Fired February 2015 Newfound Research LLC 425 Boylston Street 3 rd Floor Boston, MA 02116 www.thinknewfound.com info@thinknewfound.com
More informationCTA Market Size Factor: Bigger was Better in 2018
CTA Market Size Factor: Bigger was Better in 2018 Kathryn M. Kaminski, Ph.D., CAIA Chief Research Strategist, Portfolio Manager Page 1 Market trends can occur in many different shapes, sizes, and places.
More informationLearning Objectives CMT Level III
Learning Objectives CMT Level III - 2018 The Integration of Technical Analysis Section I: Risk Management Chapter 1 System Design and Testing Explain the importance of using a system for trading or investing
More informationTRADING SIMPLE! By Arduino Schenato
TRADING SIMPLE! By Arduino Schenato GET NAKED GET PROFIT FROM A REAL TRADER TO REAL TRADERS! IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN LEARNING MY METHOD VISIT THIS LINK: www.hereforexnaked.com IF YOU WANT TO RECEIVE MY
More informationThe Tactical Rotation Strategies A Suite of Separately Managed Account Strategies
FYE 2015 Where the ART and SCIENCE of investing meet Upside capture in bull markets...... Downside protection in bear markets The Tactical Rotation Strategies A Suite of Separately Managed Account Strategies
More informationMANAGED FUTURES INDEX
MANAGED FUTURES INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JULY 2018 CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% AMFERI BARCLAY BTOP50 CTA INDEX S&P 500 S&P
More informationGlobal Multi Asset Global Tactical Asset Alloc $346.8 billion
Columbia (Model Portfolio Provider) 225 Franklin Street Boston, Massachusetts 02110 Style: Sub-Style: Firm AUM: Firm Strategy AUM: Global Multi Asset Global Tactical Asset Alloc $346.8 billion Year Founded:
More informationEnhancing equity portfolio diversification with fundamentally weighted strategies.
Enhancing equity portfolio diversification with fundamentally weighted strategies. This is the second update to a paper originally published in October, 2014. In this second revision, we have included
More informationThe Case for Micro-Cap Equities. Originally Published January 2011
The Case for Micro-Cap Equities Originally Published January 011 MICRO-CAP EQUITIES PRESENT A COMPELLING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS In an increasingly efficient and competitive market,
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS AUGUST 2018 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) -80.00% ABCERI S&P
More informationW.E. DONOGHUE & CO., LLC
ITEM 1: COVER PAGE W.E. Donoghue & Co., LLC CRD #285403 Form ADV Part 2A, Firm Brochure January 10, 2018 W.E. DONOGHUE & CO., LLC One International Place Suite 2920 Boston, Massachusetts 02110 1-800-642-4276
More informationAn Introduction to Dynamic Overlay
Tactical investment strategy striving to preserve and grow client wealth An Introduction to Dynamic Overlay www.mrminv.com 12444 Powerscourt Drive Suite 350, St. Louis, MO 63131 1-(800) 233-1944 Q4 2018
More informationCan You Time Managed Futures?
September 7 Can You Time Managed Futures? John Dolfin, CFA Chief Investment Officer Steben & Company, Inc. Christopher Maxey, CAIA Senior Portfolio Manager Steben & Company, Inc. This white paper addresses
More informationWhy Tactical Portfolio Management?
Why Tactical Portfolio Management? A long-term perspective of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1896 reveals the reality that there are extended periods of time in which the US equity market will
More informationTechnical Tools Partnered With Other Methodologies. May 15, 2014 Adam Grimes, CIO, Waverly Advisors
Technical Tools Partnered With Other Methodologies May 15, 2014 Adam Grimes, CIO, Waverly Advisors Outline: First principles: the market problem Understanding the market in terms of probabilities Approaches
More informationPoint & Figure Basics
DORSEY WRIGHT Point & Figure Basics Technical Insights, Powerful Solutions Presented by Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Our Research Methodology Simple Economics Simply stated, Nasdaq Dorsey Wright focuses on the
More informationRisk-efficient investment solutions from AlphaSimplex Group
Risk-efficient investment solutions from AlphaSimplex Group AlphaSimplex Group and LPL Financial AlphaSimplex Group is working with LPL Financial to offer risk-efficient strategies available in Model Wealth
More informationDiscussion of The Promises and Pitfalls of Factor Timing. Josephine Smith, PhD, Director, Factor-Based Strategies Group at BlackRock
Discussion of The Promises and Pitfalls of Factor Timing Josephine Smith, PhD, Director, Factor-Based Strategies Group at BlackRock Overview of Discussion This paper addresses a hot topic in factor investing:
More informationThe Long & Short of It Quarterly Newsletter Second Quarter 2018
The Long & Short of It Quarterly Newsletter Second Quarter 2018 Value vs. Growth: A Primer Are Value Stocks Ready to Grow Again? the Barron s cover article from April 28, 2018 lamented the recent performance
More informationPORTFOLIO INSIGHTS DESIGNING A SMART ALTERNATIVE APPROACH FOR INVESTING IN AUSTRALIAN SMALL COMPANIES. July 2018
Financial adviser/ wholesale client use only. Not for distribution to retail clients. Until recently, investors seeking to gain a single exposure to a diversified portfolio of Australian small companies
More informationRisk-Efficient Investment Portfolios from AlphaSimplex Group. Strategies that put risk management first
Risk-Efficient Investment Portfolios from AlphaSimplex Group Strategies that put risk management first Agenda About AlphaSimplex Group (ASG) The need for active risk management Introducing the AlphaSimplex
More informationDestinations INVESTOR GUIDE. Multi-asset class solutions to meet a range of investor needs. Dynamic portfolios constructed from mutual funds
multi-asset class, dynamic portfolios are designed to deliver consistent returns over the long-term and help individuals stay invested. Risk-based portfolios INVESTOR GUIDE Income-focused portfolios CONSERVATIVE
More informationEverything you need to know about the trade alerts you ve been hearing about.
11 YEAR Everything you need to know about the trade alerts you ve been hearing about. SCORECARD RESULTS FULL MARKET BREAKDOWN COMPLETE ALERT DETAILS INSTITUTIONAL-GRADE TRADE ALERTS: FUTURES, FOREX & INDICES
More informationManaged Futures (Counter-Trend Approach) STRATEGY OVERVIEW
STRATEGY OVERVIEW Managed Futures (Counter-Trend Approach) Related Funds: 361 Managed Futures Strategy Fund (AMFZX) 361 Global Managed Futures Strategy Fund (AGFZX) Strategy Thesis Day-to-day market movements
More information