BOND MARKET DECIMAL DUST
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1 BOND MARKET DECIMAL DUST AAII Los Angeles February 2017 MARILYN COHEN Envision Capital Management, Inc Rosecrans Ave., Suite 4180 El Segundo, CA envisioncap.com Blog: envisioncap.wordpress.com 23 years a Forbes columnist
2 FROM THE PIT OF THE CREDIT CRISIS TO THE EUPHORIA OF THE TRUMP BUMP, BIG CHANGES ARE AHEAD FOR BOND INVESTORS
3 ACADEMICS CENTRAL BANKERS: THOSE ACADEMICS AND THEIR GREAT EXPERIMENT WITH ZERO INTEREST RATES
4 YIELD ON THE 10 YEAR US TREASURY BOND FROM 1960 TO PRESENT
5 WORRIES, CONCERNS AND ANXIETY OVER HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND OUR FEDERAL DEBT Nice chart, but the CBO has based it on an average annual 2.1% GDP growth rate and 1.9% GDP growth during the second half of the 10 year period. Congressional Budget Office
6 Trillions of $ US TREASURY DEBT DISTRIBUTION
7 EQUATION FOR TOTAL RETURN
8 WHAT SHOULD A WORRIED BOND INVESTOR DO? Do not invest the same way as you have in the past Buy some CPI and 3 month LIBOR floating rate corporate bonds rather than TIPS Invest in shorter duration bond funds and ETFs Invest in individual bonds with maturities of 3, 5, 7, and 9 years Invest in one or two Rising Rate ETFs that hedge their interest rate risk.
9 STOP WORRYING AND DO SOMETHING Nustar Logistics LP: Focuses on just 3 segments: Petroleum products storage, transportation, asphalt/fuels marketing Looks like a preferred but is a Fixed to Float Subordinated Note CUSIP: 67059T204 Rated: Ba2, BB- B % Fixed until January 15, 2018, then 6.734% Plus 3-month LIBOR Price: % yield to Jan call, 7.33% to Maturity 2043 Compare to Nustar Logistics LP Bonds 4.80% due Sept. 1, 2020 $450 million outstanding Rated: Ba1, BB+, BB CUSIP: 67059TAB1 4.00% Yield to Maturity
10
11 2/15/ %
12 Next reset March 1st
13 YOU PAY A PRICE FOR LIQUIDITY LIBOR FLOATERS Goldman Sachs Group Senior Unsecured Rated: A3, BBB+, A CUSIP: 38143U8G9 Due 2/25/2021 $600 million outstanding, Quarterly Pay LIBOR +177, 2.70% Next reset 2/27/17 CUSIP: 38141GWD2 Due 4/26/2022 $1 billion outstanding LIBOR +111, 2.14% Next reset 4/26/17
14 QUESTIONS YOU SHOULD BE ASKING Should we own a Floating Rate fund? Yes Should we own a TIPS fund? Maybe Should we own a leveraged Floating Rate fund? No Should our bond duration for 2017 be short? Yes When do we lengthen duration?
15 Are there any bond sink holes of which we should be wary? SINK HOLES Special Mandatory Redemption Provisions: The details matter read the fine print in the Prospectus.
16
17 GOOD BOND IDEAS ARE HARD TO FIND United Continental Holdings 6% due December 1, 2020 $300 million outstanding B1, BB-, BB CUSIP: AG4 3.75% Yield to Maturity United Continental Holdings 5% due Feb. 1, 2024 $300 million outstanding B1, BB-, BB CUSIP: AH2 5.06% Yield to Maturity Need a Place Holder? American Airlines Group 6.125% due June 1, 2018 $500 million outstanding B1, BB-, BB- CUSIP: 91731VAA4 2.57% Yield to Maturity
18 CORPORATE BOND RECOMMENDATIONS EPR Properties: Real Estate Investment Trust that acquires & develops properties leased to entertainment related businesses, megaplex theaters, and entertainment centers 5.25% due July 15, 2023 $275 million outstanding Baa2, BBB-, BBB- CUSIP: 26884UAA7 4.35% Yield to Maturity Lear Corp.: Manufactures auto parts, seating, control electronics, connectors, terminals, etc. 4.75% due January 15, 2023 $499 million outstanding B1, BB-, BB- CUSIP: AU9 2.67% Yield to Worst Call in % Yield to Maturity or 5.25% due January 15, 2025 $650 million outstanding CUSIP: AX3 3.65% Yield to Worst Call in % Yield to Maturity
19 YOU HAVE CHOICES LOTS OF CHOICES Rising Rate Hedged High Yield ETFs: HYGH 4.64% ishares wait for greater volume HYHG 4.86 Proshares HYZD 5.15% Wisdomtree Rising Rate Hedged Investment Grade ETFs: IGHG 3.33% Proshares Floating Rate ETFs: FLOT 1.23% ishares FLRN 1.31% SPDR State Street Floating Rate High Yield Open End Fund: FFRHX 3.85% Fidelity CPI Floating Rate Bonds LIBOR Floating Rate Bonds
20 WELCOME TO THE MUNICIPAL BOND ZONE
21 DIG DOWN AND RE-THINK EVERYTHING YOU VE LEARNED ABOUT MUNICIPAL BONDS
22 Municipal Bond De Minimis Rule Unraveled In certain cases the De Minimis Rule changes the tax character of bonds purchased at a market discount. Having a portion of their municipal return taxed as ordinary income is an unwelcome surprise for bond investors. The De Minimis Rule is especially relevant in times of rising interest rates.
23 AIDING AND ABETTING MUNICIPAL DYSFUNCTION CAUSES TAX PAYERS TO OWE MORE. Revenue Yield Curve: 3 Year: 1.72% 5 Year: 2.05% 10 Year: 2.85% 15 year: 3.38% 20 Year: 3.65% 30 Year: 3.85% ILLINOIS CHICAGO DALLAS HOUSTON COUNTIES SMALL AND LARGE CITIES
24 SOME MUNI NO NO S /SOME MUNI YES ANSWERS No No s No Detroit or Anything in Michigan No Chicago Bonds No Illinois Bonds No Puerto Rico bonds No GOs from PROBLEM AREAS No PENSION OBLIGATION bonds (taxable) No SALES TAX REVENUE bonds No bonds NEEDING ANNUAL APPROPRIATIONS No stadium, Parking, Coliseum, Museum, Prison, Court House, Police HQ bonds Yes Yes on Senior Lien Airport Revenue bonds Yes on Water & Sewers in GOOD AREAS Yes on ESSENTIAL REVENUE bonds Yes on PERSONAL INCOME TAX bonds (PIT) Toll Bridges
25 A SHALLOW DIVE Los Angeles Municipal Improvement Revenue Bonds 3.00% Due May 1, 2026 callable May 1, 2024 CUSIP: A73 Rated: A+, A+ Lease Revenue bonds for 3 Los Angeles buildings: Central Library of Downtown LA Playa Vista Fire Station San Pedro Municipal Building 2.65% to 2024 call 2.781% to Maturity Annual appropriations needed
26 MUNICIPALS: FERRET OUT THE DEALS Mandatory Put Bonds: Bay Area Toll Authority San Francisco Bay Area Toll Bridge Revenue Bonds 3.00% due April 1, 2047 Mandatory Put April 1, 2026 Stepped Up Rate: If there is a Failed Tender: SIFMA +2.50% SIFMA +5.00%
27 COME FLY WITH ME AIRPORT REVENUE BONDS Business Travel Spending Airport Debt Loads Debt Service Coverage Days of Cash on Hand (average 560 days)
28 DISSECT THE AIRPORT REVENUE CONCEPT Revenues through concessions When you rent a car Car rental facilities Duty-free shops Taxi drop off and pickup ($4.00) Rent for the space airlines use Landing fees assessed per flight Uber and Lyft for the use of roadway and curb space Luggage trolleys ($5.00/trolley) Passenger facility charge (LAX $4.50/person) Major airports are in great financial shape
29 AIRPORTS ARE MAKING MONEY GALORE
30 MUNICIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS Buy Airport Revenue Bonds: From Major Hubs (no regionals) Buy Senior Liens No Sinking Funds 1. Atlanta International 2. Los Angeles International 3. O Hare 4. Dallas Fort Worth 5. JFK 6. Denver International 7. San Francisco International 8. Charlotte Douglas International 9. McCarran International 10. Phoenix Sky Harbor 11. Miami International
31
32 Envision Capital Management, Inc. Fixed Income Money Managers MINIMUM ACCOUNT SIZE $500,000 FEES: MUNICIPALS:.43% INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATES:.60% SPLIT-RATED CORPORATES:.75% HIGH YIELD: 1.00%
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