Syncora Guarantee Inc. 4th QUARTER 2017 OPERATING SUPPLEMENT (STATUTORY - BASIS)

Transcription

1 Syncora Guarantee Inc. 4th QUARTER 2017 OPERATING SUPPLEMENT (STATUTORY BASIS)

2 Syncora Guarantee Inc. Index Page Number Certain Definitions 2 Syncora Legal Entity Structure 3 Assets, Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds 4 Statement of Income 5 Claims Paying Resources & Leverage Ratio 6 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding 7 Insured Portfolio Debt Service Amortization 7 Insured Portfolio Composition & Loss Reserves 8 Insured Portfolio Watch List 8 Insured Portfolio Distribution by Rating 9 Insured Portfolio Distribution By Internal Rating 9 Insured Portfolio Summary of Below Investment Grade (BIG) Exposures 10 Insured Portfolio Summary of Below Investment Grade (BIG) Exposures by Internal Rating 10 Insured Portfolio 20 Largest Public Finance Credits 11 Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Net Principal and Interest Amortization 12 Insured Portfolio RMBS Loss & LAE Roll Forward 13 Claims Variance Analysis 14 Insured Portfolio Top 10 Structured Finance Servicer/Manager Exposures 15 Insured Portfolio Profile by Geographic Distribution 16 Investment Portfolio 17 All information herein is presented on a statutory basis unless otherwise specified. Numbers throughout the document may not add due to rounding. Effective December 31, 2017, Syncora Capital Assurance Inc. merged with and into Syncora Guarantee Inc. ( SGI ), with SGI remaining as the surviving entity. All prior period financial statement reporting has been adjusted to reflect this merger. 1

3 Syncora Guarantee Inc. Certain Definitions Leverage ratio 1 Net par outstanding Net premiums written Net present value of future installment premiums on insurance policies and credit derivative contracts (NPVFIP) 1 Net principal and interest outstanding Net par outstanding divided by total claims paying resources. Aggregate principal value of insurance policies and credit derivative contracts insured at the end of the reporting period, reduced by cessions to reinsurers. Direct premiums written plus assumed reinsurance premiums less ceded reinsurance premiums. Estimated installment premiums written on insurance policies and credit derivative contracts anticipated to be earned in future periods on policies in force, reduced by planned cessions to reinsurers, plus associated ceding commissions received from reinsurers, discounted at 7%. NPVFIP is a management estimate which can be negatively affected by prepayments, early terminations, credit losses or other factors. Aggregate principal value of insurance policies and credit derivative contracts insured at the end of the reporting period including all future interest payable on obligations, reduced by cessions to reinsurers. Note: 1 Includes certain management estimates. 2

4 Syncora Legal Entity Structure Syncora Holdings Ltd. Bermuda Entity Delaware Entity New York Insurance Entity Alabama Entity Michigan LLC Nova Scotia Unlimited Liability Company New Jersey Entity New York LLC New York Common Law Trust Bermuda Exempt Company Syncora Holdings US Inc. Delaware Corporation Syncora Guarantee Services Inc. Delaware Corporation Syncora Guarantee Inc. New York Insurance Company Syncora Administrative Holdings US Inc. Delaware Corporation Syncora Securities Holdings LLC Delaware Corporation Pike Pointe Holdings, LLC Syncora Investment Holdings LLC Syncora CDS LLC New York LLC Syncora Admin LLC New York LLC American Roads Development LLC American Roads LLC 80% Swap Financial Group LLC New Jersey LLC Portfolio CDS Trusts New York Common Law Trusts American Roads Parking, LLC American Roads Toll Roads, LLC American Roads Management, LLC Alabama Toll American Roads DWT Holdings I, LLC American Roads DWT Holdings II, LLC American Roads Alabama Holdings, LLC (formerly known as Alabama Roads LLC) Operations, LLC 50% 50% Detroit Windsor Detroit Windsor Tunnel, Tunnel, LLC LLC Michigan LLC The Detroit Windsor Subway Company NSULC Nova Scotia Unlimited Liability Company The Baldwin County Bridge Company, LLC Alabama LLC Alabama Emerald Mountain Expressway Bridge, LLC Central Alabama River Parkway, LLC American Roads Technologies, LLC Delaware Corporation Alabama Black Warrior Parkway, LLC There are no voting rights preferences between the two members who share ownership of Detroit Windsor Tunnel LLC. 3

5 Assets, Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds (U.S. dollars in thousands) As of 12/31/2017 9/30/2017 6/30/2017 Assets Cash, cash equivalents and shortterm investments $ 309,935 $ 167,237 $ 328,910 Bonds 809, , ,795 Uninsured cash flow certificates 63,636 72,933 89,512 Preferred stocks, at amortized cost 17,768 1,033 1,033 Interest rate derivatives Common stock 59,218 57,891 56,305 Other invested assets 28,926 55,749 56,430 Receivables for securities 5,524 Subtotal, cash and invested assets 1,289,728 1,313,520 1,442,511 Investment income due and accrued 6,485 7,515 6,985 Uncollected premiums and reinsurance assets 1,648 1,610 1,584 Other assets 4,232 17,732 13,072 Total Assets $ 1,302,093 $ 1,340,377 $ 1,464,152 Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds Losses and loss adjustment expenses $ (263,748) $ (54,624) $ (21,377) Unearned premiums 181, , ,209 Borrowed money 27,500 Payable to parent, subsidiaries and affiliates 10,343 6,227 6,409 Mandatory contingency reserve 47, , ,669 Other liabilities 9,173 8,278 2,285 Total Liabilities (15,530) 257, ,696 Surplus notes 548, , ,276 Preferred capital stock 200, , ,000 Common capital stock 15,000 15,000 15,000 Unassigned funds (surplus) 554, , ,180 Surplus as regards policyholders 1,317,624 1,082,978 1,149,456 Total Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds $ 1,302,093 $ 1,340,377 $ 1,464,152 4

6 Statement of Income (U.S. dollars in thousands) Three Months Ended 12/31/2017 9/30/2017 6/30/2017 Net premiums written $ 2,177 $ 3,111 $ 3,032 Underwriting Income Net premiums earned $ 11,667 $ 7,753 $ 16,082 Net losses/(releases) and LAE incurred (204,705) 65,137 27,174 Other underwriting expenses incurred 13,528 9,197 12,387 Net underwriting gain/(loss) 202,845 (66,580) (23,479) Investment Income Net investment income (expense) earned (12,664) 10,410 (13,659) Net realized gains/(losses) (6,084) (14,559) (826) Total net investment gain/(loss) (18,747) (4,149) (14,485) Other Income Other income 1, Net income/(loss) before taxes 185,269 (70,485) (37,399) Federal and foreign income taxes incurred/(benefit) 26 Net income/(loss) $ 185,243 $ (70,485) $ (37,399) 5

7 Claims Paying Resources & Leverage Ratio As of 12/31/2017 9/30/2017 6/30/2017 Claims paying resources Policyholders' surplus $ 1,318 $ 1,083 $ 1,149 Contingency reserve Qualified statutory capital 1,365 1,190 1,254 Unearned premium revenue Loss & loss adjustment expense reserves 1,2, Total policyholders' surplus & reserves 1,546 1,570 1,699 NPVFIP Total claims paying resources $ 1,643 $ 1,671 $ 1,799 Net par outstanding $ 14,839 $ 16,552 $ 17,015 Leverage ratio (Net par outstanding/total claims paying resources) For the three months ended 12/31/2017, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of five structured single risk credits ($250.5 million). 2 For the three months ended 9/30/2017, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of four structured single risk credits ($244.5 million). 3 For the three months ended 6/30/2017, the reported loss and loss adjustment expenses excludes the recoverable benefit of five structured single risk credits ($243.5 million) and one public finance credit ($27.2 million). 6

8 Insured Portfolio Net Par Outstanding Q Q Q NPO % NPO NPO % NPO NPO % NPO Public Finance Special Revenue $ 3,316 $ 3,370 $ 3,596 General Obligation 1,320 1,457 1,664 Utility 938 1,000 1,048 Non Ad Valorem Appropriation Other Total Public Finance $ 6, % $ 7, % $ 7, % AssetBacked Securities RMBS $ 367 $ 381 $ 410 Total AssetBacked Securities $ % $ % $ % Collateralized Debt Obligations Cashflow CDO $ 27 $ 27 $ 28 Total Collateralized Debt Obligations $ % $ % $ % Structured Single Risk Power & Utilities $ 5,067 $ 5,184 $ 5,077 Global Infrastructure 2,512 3,586 3,522 Specialized Risk Total Structured Single Risk $ 7, % $ 9, % $ 8, % Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14, % $ 16, % $ 17, % Categories include domestic and international credits. Insured Portfolio Debt Service Amortization Q Q Q Scheduled Net Scheduled Net Scheduled Net Debt Service NPIO Debt Service NPIO Debt Service NPIO 2017 Q4 $ $ 24, Q , Q , Q , Q ,618 Total 2018 $ 1, Q3 $ $ 26, Q , Q , Q , Q , Q ,092 Total $ 1, Q2 $ $ 27, Q , Q , Q , Q , Q , Q ,382 Total $ 2, $ 924 $ 22, ,056 21, ,303 20, ,039 19,295 Total $ 4, $ 4,571 $ 14, ,153 11, ,698 8, and thereafter 8,873 Total 2023thereafter $ 19, $ 1,154 $ 23, ,275 22, ,415 21, ,233 20,014 Total $ 5, $ 4,849 $ 15, ,343 11, ,853 8, and thereafter 8,968 Total 2023thereafter $ 20, $ 1,176 $ 24, ,298 22, ,440 21, ,254 20,213 Total $ 5, $ 4,944 $ 15, ,428 11, ,900 8, and thereafter 8,941 Total 2023thereafter $ 20,213 Total $ 24,629 Total $ 26,970 Total $ 27,745 Categories include domestic and international credits. 7

9 Insured Portfolio Composition & Loss Reserves Q Q Q NPO # of Credits NPO # of Credits NPO # of Credits Public Finance $ 6, $ 7, $ 7, AssetBacked Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations Structured Single Risk 7, , , Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14, $ 16, $ 17, Net Loss Reserve Net Loss Reserve Net Loss Reserve Public Finance $ 120 $ 95 $ 119 AssetBacked Securities (145) Collateralized Debt Obligations Structured Single Risk (251) (245) (244) Total Net Reserve $ (275) $ (72) $ (41) Note: Categories include domestic and international credits. Insured Portfolio Watch List Loss List Red Flag List Q Yellow Flag List Special Monitoring List Total Number of credits Remaining weightedaverage contract period (in years) Insured contractual payments outstanding: Principal $ $ 21.6 $ $ $ 1,744.7 Interest Total $ $ 33.6 $ 1,006.8 $ $ 2,604.1 Gross loss reserves $ (274.5) $ $ $ $ (274.5) Net loss reserves $ (274.5) $ $ $ $ (274.5) 8

10 Insured Portfolio Distribution by Rating Q Q Q NPO % NPO NPO % NPO NPO % NPO AAA $ % $ % $ % AA 4, , , A 4, , , BBB 4, , , Below Investment Grade 1, , , Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14, % $ 16, % $ 17, % Rating based on S&P bond rating as reflected in Syncora Guarantee's records, if available, and internal Syncora Guarantee's rating if no S&P bond rating is available. Insured Portfolio Distribution by Internal Rating* Q Q Q NPO % NPO NPO % NPO NPO % NPO aaa $ % $ 2 % $ 2 % aa 1, , , a 6, , , bbb 5, , , Below Investment Grade 1, , , Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14, % $ 16, % $ 17, % *Internal ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the Company s view, before giving effect to the guarantee. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. The Company s rating symbology has a onetoone correspondence to the ratings symbologies used by S&P and Moody s (e.g., aa = AA = Aa3, bbb = BBB = Baa2, etc.). However, the Company assigns d ratings to insured transactions where the transaction has resulted in a paid claim and "c" ratings to insured transactions where the transaction is expected to result in a paid claim that has not yet been recovered resulting in a loss of up to and including 100% of the insured exposure. 9

11 Insured Portfolio Summary of Below Investment Grade (BIG) Exposures Q Q Q NPO NPO NPO Public Finance $ 679 $ 684 $ 774 AssetBacked Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations Structured Single Risk 504 1,353 1,347 Total Below Investment Grade $ 1,488 $ 2,350 $ 2,457 Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14,839 $ 16,552 $ 17,015 BIG as % of Net Par Outstanding 10.0% 14.2% 14.4% Rating based on S&P bond rating as reflected in Syncora Guarantee's records, if available, and internal Syncora Guarantee's rating if no S&P bond rating is available. Insured Portfolio Summary of Below Investment Grade (BIG) Exposures by Internal Rating* Q Q Q NPO NPO NPO Public Finance $ 544 $ 561 $ 651 AssetBacked Securities Collateralized Debt Obligations Structured Single Risk 300 1,158 1,393 Total Below Investment Grade $ 1,167 $ 2,051 $ 2,400 Total Net Par Outstanding $ 14,839 $ 16,552 $ 17,015 BIG as % of Net Par Outstanding 7.9% 12.4% 14.1% *Internal ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the Company s view, before giving effect to the guarantee. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. The Company s rating symbology has a onetoone correspondence to the ratings symbologies used by S&P and Moody s (e.g., aa = AA = Aa3, bbb = BBB = Baa2, etc.). However, the Company assigns d ratings to insured transactions where the transaction has resulted in a paid claim and "c" ratings to insured transactions where the transaction is expected to result in a paid claim that has not yet been recovered resulting in a loss of up to and including 100% of the insured exposure. 10

12 Insured Portfolio 20 Largest Public Finance Credits NPO S&P Rating Internal Rating* 1 LCOR Alexandria, LLC Lease Revenue $ 580 AA a 2 San Diego Family Housing LLC Class I 405 AA aa 3 DOT Headquarters II LeaseBacked Mortgage Finance Trust Senior Notes 326 BB+ a 4 Dodger Tickets LLC 270 BBB+ bbb+ 5 City of Houston, TX Airport System Revenue Bonds 185 A+ a 6 Metropolitan Transportation Authority, NY Lease Revenue Bonds 152 BBB+ bbb 7 San Diego County, CA Pension Obligation Bonds 148 AA+ aa 8 Navy Northeast Family Housing Series 2007A1 (Trust 220) 147 AA bbb 9 New Jersey Economic Development Authority, NJ 141 BBB+ bbb 10 San Diego Family Housing LLC Class II 141 AA aa 11 San Diego Family Housing LLC Class III 141 AA a+ 12 Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia (MGAG) Gas Prepay 127 A a 13 San Bernardino County, CA Pension Obligation Bonds 125 AA a 14 Southern California Logistics Airport Authority, CA Tax Allocation Bonds 124 BB bb 15 St. Louis (City of), MO Lease 123 A bbb 16 Natural Gas Acquisition Corporation of City of Clarksville (NGAC), TN Utility Obligation Bonds, Gas Prepay 115 AA a 17 Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, PR Utility Revenue Bonds 110 D d 18 Hesperia PFA, CA 107 BBB bbb 19 Arkansas River Power Authority, CO Electric Revenue Bonds 106 BBB bb 20 Offutt Air Force Base, NE Military Housing Series A 106 AA a Total Net Par Outstanding of the Largest Public Finance Credits $ 3,680 Q Total Portfolio Net Par Outstanding $ 14,839 % of Total SGI Portfolio 24.8% Total Public Finance Portfolio Net Par Outstanding $ 6,603 % of Total Public Finance Portfolio 55.7% Individual Obligors may have policies with different ratings. Net Par Outstanding shown is grouped by the Obligor's lowest rating. S&P Rating based on S&P bond rating as reflected in Syncora Guarantee's records, if available, and internal Syncora Guarantee's rating if no S&P bond rating is available. *Internal ratings are provided solely to indicate the underlying credit quality of guaranteed obligations based on the Company s view, before giving effect to the guarantee. They are subject to revision at any time and do not constitute investment advice. The Company s rating symbology has a onetoone correspondence to the ratings symbologies used by S&P and Moody s (e.g., aa = AA = Aa3, bbb = BBB = Baa2, etc.). However, the Company assigns d ratings to insured transactions where the transaction has resulted in a paid claim and "c" ratings to insured transactions where the transaction is expected to result in a paid claim that has not yet been recovered resulting in a loss of up to and including 100% of the insured exposure. 11

13 Insured Portfolio Puerto Rico Net Principal and Interest Amortization 1,2 Q Calendar Year Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Government Obligations Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Highway & Transportation Authority Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, PR Utility Revenue Bonds Puerto Rico (Commonwealth) Mixed State and Local Revenue Total P&I Total $ 15.6 $ $ 33.8 $ 3.9 $ $ $ 11.5 $ $ 23.5 $ Total Net Principal $ 85.1 $ 6.5 $ $ 18.8 $ Total Net Interest Total Net Principal and Interest 28.1 $ $ $ $ $ Net of reinsurance. 2 Excludes $23.8 million of carrying value of Puerto Rico Government Obligations, Highway & Transportation Authority, and Electric Power Authority bonds purchased. 12

14 Insured Portfolio RMBS Loss & LAE Reserve Roll Forward Period End Date RMBS Net Unpaid Loss and LAE Beginning 1 Q Incurred Losses/(Recoveries) Net Paid Claims RMBS Net Unpaid Loss and LAE Ending 1 12/31/11 $ 80.7 $ 16.0 $ (57.6) $ /31/ (289.8) /31/ (355.0) 51.4 (233.9) 12/31/14 (233.9) (29.2) /31/ (23.9) /31/ (62.1) /31/ (2.5) (0.4) /30/ (5.4) (1.0) /30/ (3.4) (1.8) /31/ (220.1) (4.3) (142.8) 1 Information provided in Note 25 of Syncora Guarantee Inc. s Annual and Quarterly statutory financial statements. 13

15 Claims Variance Analysis October 2017 November 2017 December Q 2017 Net Claims Submitted 1 HELOC $ (0.6) $ (0.4) $ (0.5) $ (1.4) CES 0.2 (0.1) First Lien (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) Other (0.0) Total Net Claims Submitted (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (1.7) Net Projected Claims 1 HELOC CES First Lien (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) Other (1.0) (1.0) Total Net Projected Claims (0.5) 0.1 Difference Favorable/(Unfavorable) HELOC CES (0.1) First Lien Other 0.0 (1.0) (1.0) Total Difference $ 0.6 $ 1.0 $

16 Insured Portfolio Top 10 Structured Finance Servicer/Manager Exposures Servicer/Manager Name 1,3 Q NPO 1 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC $ Bank of America, N.A CLO Manager Specialized Loan Servicing 20 5 Banco La Hipotecaria, S.A 18 6 Countrywide Home Loans 15 7 Nationstar Mortgage 7 8 Washington Mutual Bank 5 9 Chevy Chase Bank FSB 3 10 CLO Manager Total Net Par Outstanding of the Top 10 Structured Finance Servicer/Manager Exposures $ 390 Total Portfolio Net Par Outstanding $ 14,839 % of Total Portfolio 2.6% Total Structured Finance Portfolio Net Par Outstanding $ 8,236 % of Total Structured Finance Portfolio 4.7% 1 Servicer/manager may be an operating subsidiary of the named entity. 2 Servicer/manager not revealed due to confidentiality. 3 Information has been updated to reflect servicer/manager transfers. 15

17 Insured Portfolio Profile by Geographic Distribution Q Q Q GPO NPO % NPO GPO NPO % NPO GPO NPO % NPO United States United States United States California $ 2,239 $ 2, % California $ 2,504 $ 2, % California $ 2,586 $ 2, % New York 1,158 1, New York 1,178 1, New York 1,188 1, Virginia Virginia Virginia District Of Columbia District Of Columbia District Of Columbia Texas Texas Florida Florida Georgia Puerto Rico Georgia Florida Texas Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Georgia Washington New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey Washington Washington Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Missouri Missouri Illinois Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Colorado Ohio Missouri Other 1 1,261 1, Other 1 1,346 1, Other 1 1,525 1, NonPF Multi 2, NonPF Multi NonPF Multi Total United States $ 8,220 $ 8, % Total United States $ 8,755 $ 8, % Total United States $ 9,490 $ 9, % International International International United Kingdom $ 5,585 $ 5, % United Kingdom $ 5,586 $ 5, % United Kingdom $ 5,422 $ 4, % Chile Australia 1,125 1, Australia 1,105 1, New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand Australia Chile Chile France Other Other Other Total International $ 8,374 $ 7, % Total International $ 8,194 $ 7, % Total International $ 7,211 $ 6, % Total Outstanding $ 15,431 $ 14, % Total Outstanding $ 17,129 $ 16, % Total Outstanding $ 17,685 $ 17, % 1 Single state/country with NPO < 1% of the total exposure plus any multistate/country Public Finance exposures. 2 NonPublic Finance deals with underlying securities in multiple states/countries. 3 Consists of $349 million in ABS and $27 million in CDO net par. 16

18 Investment Portfolio As of December 31, 2017 Distribution by Security Type Book Adjusted Carrying Value Percentage Maturity Book Adjusted Carrying Value Percentage ShortTerm Investments Within 1 Year $ % Cash and Cash Equivalents $ % 1 to 5 Years % ShortTerm Investments % 5 to 10 Years % Total Cash and ShortTerm Investments % Due after 10 Years % Debt Securities Mortgage and assetbacked securities % MBS/ABS % Total $ 1, % U.S. Government % Corporate % Yield to Book Value 2.4% States & Political Subs % Yield to Market Value 2.3% Total LongTerm Fixed Maturity % Duration (years) 2.5 Total $ 1, % Excludes $63.6 million of uninsured cash flow ("UCF") securities Quality Distribution Book Adjusted Carrying Value Percentage AAA $ % AA % A % BBB % BB & below and Not Rated % Total $ 1, % Average credit quality A Excludes $13.0 million of other remediationrelated securities Excludes $17.8 million of preferred stocks Excludes $74.0 million of common stocks and alternative investments Excludes $25.9 million of operating cash balances 17