Preferreds Investing s Orphan. Kenneth G. Winans, CMT Investment Manager Author & Radio Show Host

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1 Preferreds Investing s Orphan Kenneth G. Winans, CMT Investment Manager Author & Radio Show Host kenw@winansintl.com winansintl.com

2 Oops! Back to the Basics

3 2008 s Financial Hurricane Nowhere to Run & Hide! Annual Price Change (%): US Common Stocks = -39% US Residential Real Estate = -11% US Corporate Bonds = -11% US Preferred Stocks = -27% Commodities (CRB Spot) = -36%

4 Preferred Stocks Wall Street s Orphan

5 Traditional Preferred Stock Facts An equity that acts like a long-term bond. First issued in 1866, exchange traded Fixed rate dividends, taxed like common stock Finite life, can be called early Delinquent dividends accrue over time Strong bankruptcy rights Benchmark: Winans International Preferred Stock Index (WIPSI) from 1890 to Present

6 Questions to Answer Which income investment has performed the best over the long term, and how do they compare to common stocks? Are there time-tested market indicators that can aid the trained eye in identifying overbought and oversold conditions in income investments? What is the best way to own income investments (directly or mutual funds)?

7 2007 Years of US Financial History

8 Performance Summary Table

9 Preferred Stocks Good & Bad News Winans International Preferred Stock Index (WIPSI): Average Annual Return Average Dividend Yield Inflation-Adjusted Return Best Year Worst Year Negative returns Consecutive Negative Returns % 6.5% 4.3% 41% in % in % of the time 7% of the time

10 Corporate Bonds Good & Bad News Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index (DJCB): Average Annual Return Average Interest Yield Inflation-Adjusted Return Best Year Worst Year Negative returns Consecutive Negative Returns % 6.2% 3.3% 39% in % in % of the time 3% of the time

11 Common Stock vs. Income Investments in Bad Times Period WIPSI DJCBA * WIPSI DJCBA Total Years (Brief New Highs) 17 (1) 10 (1) Average Annual Return 8% 4% 7% 6% 7% 7%

12 Market Analysis of Preferreds

13 Winans Intl. Preferred Stock Index (WIPSI) SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION Average Standard & Poor's Rating BBB Industry Breakdown Utilities 50% Financial Services 33% Industrial 7% Business Services 7% Average Annual Revenues $11.3 Billion Year-end Dividend Cycle December 60% November 23% October 17%

14 Investors Business Daily

15 Preferred Stock Price Chart 30 Winans International Preferred Stock Index - WIPSI Present

16 Preferred Stock Yield Chart

17 Yield Comparisons (Spreads) A) Spread (Preferreds low - high) Quality ( , , , , )

18 WIPSI With 200-day Moving Average

19 WIPSI & Regression Lines

20 WIPSI & Wilder RSI Oscillator

21 Time to Buy? HOLD IT!

22 Income Investing Do s & Don ts

23 Preferred Stock Mutual Funds Fund Name Ticker Net Fund % Other % Other Assets Incept Preferred Convertibles $MM Date 1 F&C Preferred Income Opp FPO JHancock Prefer Income HPI Nuveen Tax-Adv Flt Rate JFP F&C Preferred Income PFD JHancock Prefer Income II HPF Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 225 W. Wacker Dr., Chicago, IL Morningstar is an independent provider of financial information. Morningstar does not endorse any broker/dealer, financial planner, or fund company. Reprints are available in quantity, Very Few Time-Tested Choices

24 Bond Funds = High Turnover = WHY? Fund Category 10-yr Return Turnover Ratio Expense Ratio Corporates 6.8% 148% 0.69% High Grade 6.6% 101% 0.60% High Yield 3.9% 86% 1.02% Municipals 5.8% 47% 1.25% Worldwide 7.0% 203% 1.88% Morningstar data, excludes funds with under $50mm in assets and money market funds. Date: December, 2008

25 Income Investments = Price Gaps

26 A Liquid Way to Own Real Estate

27 Fundamental Checklist Corporate Bond and Preferred Stock Negative Factors MAJOR MINOR Private Company (no financial information) Common Stock Price Within 10% of 52-week low Common Stock Price Below $3.00 pr share Earnings Three years of losses out of last five years Cashflow Three years of losses out of last five years Earnings Big losses in last two years Cashflow Big losses in last two years Earnings Losses expected this year Cashflow Losses expected this year Debt to Capital Ratio More than 75% Shares Outstanding High levels of dilution Valueline Safety Rating 4 or 5 Valueline Financial Strength Less than B Negative Accounting Notes and Other Concerns Revenue Reduction expected this year Earnings Reduction expected this year Cashflow Reduction expected this year Common Dividends Reduction expected this year Operating Margin Less than 7% Long-term Debt vs Equity 10% increase in debt and reduction in equity Common Dividend Payout Ratio Greater than 100% Revenue Less than $500 million Valueline Earnings Predictability Less than 60 S&P Rating Lowered

28 S & P Ratings Table 18 - S&P Corporate Rating Interpretations Common Preferreds/ Stock Bonds General Interpretation A+ AAA+ Risk Free AAA AAA- A AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- A- Investment Grade B+ BBB+ BBB BBB- B BB+ BB Medium Grade BB- B- B+ B NR "Junk" Rated B- C+ CCC+ CCC CCC- C CC+ CC CC- C- C+ C C- D D Default Preferreds used in study

29 Brokerage Statement Bonds Unrealized gains & losses have been adjusted to account for the accretion of OI*D, the amortization of premium, and/or the accretion of market discount. Call features shown indicate the next regularly scheduled call date and price. Your holdings may be subject to other redemption features including sinking funds or extraordina The research rating for Standard & Poor s and Moody s Investors Service may be shown for certain fixed income securities. All research ratings represent the opinions of the re Corporate bonds Amt Description Date acquired Cost/Adjusted cost Share cost/ Adjusted share cost Current share price/ Accrued interest Current value Unrealized Gain/(loss) Original/Adj. Current % Yield/ Anticip. Income (annualized) Ordinary Income/ Capital gain/(loss) ##### TENET HEALTHCARE CORP SR NOTES 11/1/2000 $14, $ $15, $ LT $0.00 BK/ENTRY-DTD 1/30/1997 $14, $99.38 $ $ LT $1, $ INT: % MATY: 01/15/2005 Ex change: NYSE Rating: BA3/BB ##### AT&T CORP NOTES 11/7/2000 $15, $ $16, $ 1, LT $0.00 B/E-DTD 6/1/1994 $15, $99.38 $ $ 1, LT $1, $1, INT: % MATY: 06/01/2006 Rating: BAA2/BBB ##### ROYAL CARIBBEAN LTD SR NOTES 1/16/2003 $14, $ $15, $ ST $89.55 BK/ENTRY-DTD 8/12/1996 $14, $96.00 $42.29 $ ST $1, $ INT: % MATY: 08/15/2006 Rating BA2/BB+ This is an exact replication of the bond portion of a brokerage house statement.

30 Bond Transaction Confirmation Sheet ABC BROKERAGE HOUSE SAMPLE CONFIRMATION Account Number: Financial Consultant: Summary For Settlement Date 1/22/2003 Total Purchases $14, Net Amount $14, Debit You Bought 15,000 at a price of 96 Gross Amount $14, Accrued Bond Int ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD Transaction Fee 5.00 SR NOTES BK/ENTRY-DTD 8/12/96 Amount $14, YTM Settlement Date 1/22/ % FA-15 DUE 08/15/2006 SEE CORP/MUNI BOND NOTE BELOW SEE HIGH YIELD BOND NOTE BELOW Trade Date: 01/16/2003 CUSIP#: AE-2 Solicited Order Market: Other Markets Security#: Cash Acct. Symbol: RCL.GD Ref #: xxxx HOLD SECURITIES We acted as principal in this transaction. This is an exact replication of a brok erage house confirmation.

31 Winans International Performance Report WINANS INTERNATIONAL QUARTERLY OVERVIEW (SAMPLE PAGE) Market Price Market Par Annual Year to Date Cumulative Cumulative Description Per Bond Value Value Yield % Change % Change $ Income Corporate Bonds CORPORATE BOND 7.5% 02/15/11 $102 $25,470 $25, % -0.2% $465 $1,808 CORPORATE BOND 7.2% 07/15/08 $102 $15,559 $25, % -1.9% $60 $7,042 CORPORATE BOND 7.75% 03/01/07 $101 $6,053 $6, % -1.9% ($113) $2,744 CORPORATE BOND 9.05% 11/15/11 $108 $26,013 $24, % -2.1% ($843) $4,630 CORPORATE BOND 7.875% 07/15/13 $94 $11,220 $12, % -9.2% ($766) $7,826 CORPORATE BOND 7.625% 5/15/0 $102 $25,563 $25, % -2.0% ($723) $7,458 CORPORATE BOND 7.75% 02/1/10 $100 $15,000 $15, % -4.3% ($103) $4,255 CORPORATE BOND 9.375% 06/01/11 $105 $15,675 $15, % -0.2% $259 $4,369 CORPORATE BOND 8.75% 07/15/07 $102 $21,394 $21, % -2.0% ($927) $15,593 CORPORATE BOND 8.25% 12/15/11 $99 $24,750 $25, % 2.1% ($5) $1,712 CORPORATE BOND 10.75% 10/15/06 $82 $8,150 $10, % -19.3% ($2,136) $1,496 CORPORATE BOND 6.5% 08/15/10 $94 $23,500 $25, % -1.8% ($755) $1,345 CORPORATE BOND 7.75% 03/15/13 $95 $45,360 $48, % -3.4% ($4,975) $5,668 CORPORATE BOND 7% 05/01/12 $104 $15,525 $15, % -1.4% $380 $3,153 CORPORATE BOND 6.85% 06/01/08 $102 $9,135 $9, % -1.5% $494 $2,809 CORPORATE BOND 6.0% 01/04/14 $94 $28,050 $30, % -6.5% $1,940 $5,701 Corporate Bonds Subtotal $326,416 $330, % -2.9% ($7,747) $74,608 Estimated Market Price Market Average Year to Date Cumulative Cumulative Description Shares Per Share Value Div. Yield % Change % Change $ Income $ Equity Income COMMON STOCK 865 $30 $26, % 2.9% $1,094 $1,603 PREFERRED STOCK 8.7% 887 $27 $24, % 0.3% ($2,907) $3,647 PREFERRED STOCK 8.00% 949 $26 $24, % -0.9% ($579) $3,588 PREFERRED STOCK 8.6% 956 $25 $24, % -3.6% $897 $1,064 COMMON STOCK 221 $44 $9, % 14.3% $2,143 $1,700 PREFERRED STOCK 8.765% 838 $26 $21, % 0.4% ($1,754) $3,485 PREFERRED STOCK 8.3% 848 $26 $22, % -30.5% ($2,994) $2,934 PREFERRED STOCK 8.125% 919 $26 $23, % -1.9% ($1,710) $4,953 PREFERRED STOCK 7.25% 07/31/ $25 $7, % -0.5% ($414) $1,738 COMMON STOCK 276 $35 $9, % -19.0% ($2,896) $535 PREFERRED STOCK 8% 282 $93 $26, % 4.3% $1,066 $56 PREFERRED STOCK 9% 12/01/ $25 $24, % 0.3% ($1,425) $5,675 COMMON STOCK 1,335 $16 $21, % 0.2% ($2,255) $1,618 Equity Income Subtotal $265, % -3.8% ($13,526) $32,596

32 WI Performance Statistic Report Portfolio Statistics Summary (Income Investments): Portfolio Performance (Year-End): Asset Allocations: Market Asset Reporting Period Cumulative Performance Benchmark Growth Income Allocation (# of Years) Cumulative Annual Goal Average Investments Investments Changes 3 23% 8% 7% 4% 0% 100% None Portfolio Value & Investment Type: Market Number Portfolio Annual Year to Date Value of Positions Value Breakdown Yield Price Change Bond: $641,187 76% 7.8% -2.90% $977, Equity Income: $199,454 24% 7.7% -3.80% Maturity & Ratings: Equity Income Breakdown: Average Financial Preferred Common Real Estate Listed Average Currently S&P Equivalent Condition Stock Stock Inv. Trust Partnership Maturity Callable Rating Changes % of Portfolio 15% 6% 1% 1% % BB None Value $126,910 $51,475 $10,774 $10,295 Maturity Schedule: Maturity Value $0 $27,000 $134,600 $50,000 $40,000 $114,000 $130,000 $110,000 $30,000 $0 $231,523 % of Income 0% 3% 16% 6% 5% 13% 15% 13% 3% 0% 27% Corporate Bond $0 $27,000 $59,000 $0 $40,000 $114,000 $90,000 $110,000 $30,000 $0 $0 Equity Income $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $231,523 Municipal Bond $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $40,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 Treasury Bond $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Real Estate TD $0 $0 $75,600 $50,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Industry Sectors: Finance Health Retail Service Technology Industrial Staple Energy Utility Real Estate % of Portfolio 9% 0% 1% 15% 9% 36% 14% 2% 2% 12% Position Number Market Value $58,219 $0 $9,000 $100,000 $60,000 $245,069 $96,829 $10,295 $15,000 $82,111

33 Answers to Questions Which income investment has performed the best in the long term, and how do they compare to common stocks? Preferred stocks have performed better but are more volatile, so invest in both preferreds and bonds. Income investments offer solid performance during sideways market conditions in common stocks. There are time-tested market indicators that can aid the trained eye in identifying overbought and oversold conditions in preferred stocks? Yes, yield spreads, moving averages and RSI work well on the WIPSI. What is the best way to own income investments (directly or mutual funds)? If near certainty of return is the objective for income investing, then buy and hold bonds & preferred stocks to maturity or call.

34 Food for Thought 1. Don t blur the line between saving and investing 2. Investing is not easy. It requires discipline and study. If you don t read, don t invest! 3. A good defense is required to be a successful investor. What % of the time do preferreds lose value? 4. History Matters in Investing. Read Investment Atlas!

35 Bear Markets

36 Winans Lectures in 2010 Buy & Hold Investing R.I.P. History as an Investment Tool Technical Analysis Every Investor Should Use Historical Analysis of Real Estate Preferreds Investing s Orphan Income Investing Do s & Don ts Preferreds or Investment Atlas Book Signings

37 For More Information Winans International Investment Management winansinternational.com Winans Long / Short Fund (ETFMX) wimutualfunds.com Money Scorecard KNBR-1050am Saturday 9am-10am moneyscorecard.net Preferreds or Investment Atlas amazon.com

38 Disclaimer Past performance should not be taken as representative of future results. Kenneth G. Winans will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by the readers reliance on the contents of this presentation, which is for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice. The data, formulas, and calculations used in this presentation are considered reliable and cannot be guaranteed.

39 Kenneth G.Winans Winans International 330 Ignacio Blvd., Suite 203 Novato, CA (415)