Global High Yield Perspectives
|
|
- Silvester Dickerson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Topical Insight June 3, 215 Global High Yield Perspectives 3Q 215 Magnum vectigal est parsimonia (Translation: Thrift is a great revenue ) Cicero "The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors. Only then will we have a win-win situation. Otherwise, we will continue the lethargic dance we have been dancing for the past five months. As a final comment I want to stress that offering help to Greece, especially in the context of debt, cannot be a justification of the wrong economic philosophy, which is the main source of the crisis. And so, I believe that that Europe s assistance for Greece should be accompanied by an old Roman saying 'Magnum vectigal est parsimonia.'" Donald Tusk, President of the European Council Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, repeated Cicero s quotation in public comments during the recent, heated bailout negotiations with Greece. He hoped Greece would take these words to heart; fortunately they did. The high yield asset class, which since the 28 global financial crisis has certainly taken these words to heart, continues to offer very attractive absolute and risk-adjusted returns. In a quarter punctuated by rises in inflation expectations and safe-haven yields, slowing Chinese growth, depreciating emerging currencies, deteriorating oil prices, and real concerns over Greece s place in the euro zone, the high yield asset class continues to outperform (see Figure 1 below). Gerhardt (Gary) Herbert, CFA Brian L. Kloss, JD, CPA Regina G. Borromeo* Figure 1 Asset Class Total Returns (%); As of July 13, 215 Loans HY Corp S&P Tracy Chen, CFA, CAIA Sr. Research Analyst PM Mortgage Backed Securities ABS Agencies MBS Treasuries Aggregate IG Group -5. (1.).8 (.32) (.38) Source: Morgan Stanley, S&P LCD, the Yield Book, Bloomberg * Employee of Brandywine Global Investment Management (Europe) Limited. In rendering portfolio management services, Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC may use the portfolio management services, research, and other resources of its affiliates. For Institutional Investors Only
2 Global High Yield Perspectives - 3Q 215 p2 Topical Insight June 3, 215 Returns for the asset class continue to be positive and volatility has been subdued given elevated macro economic risk factors, especially with a Federal Reserve rate hike on the horizon. In our view, the real issue for the next several quarters is which asset class is correctly anticipating or better said, pricing in the challenges facing the global economy. Fundamentals in the high yield asset class continue to be attractive. Whether we consider return on equity (see Figure 2 below) or attachment points (e.g leverage, Figure 3 below), the high yield bond asset class has not seen a material deterioration in leverage or returns on equity. Quite the contrary, the asset class has been a bastion of stability, especially when one excludes energy-related credits. Figure 2 Proportion of US HY Firms (ex. Energy) with ROE <5% Has Been Declining US HY (ex. Energy) Distribution of ROE of CDX HY Companies, % of companies; As of March 31, < Source: RBS Credit Strategy,Bloomberg. Figure 3 US HY (ex. Energy) Companies Have Reduced Their Leverage Over The Last Quarters US HY (ex. Energy): Distribution of Net Debt/EBITDA of itraxx Xover Companies, % Companies; As of March 31, < -1x 1-2x 2-3x 3-4x 4-5x 5-6x >6x Source: RBS Credit Strategy,Bloomberg.
3 Global High Yield Perspectives - 3Q 215 p3 Topical Insight June 3, 215 Even relative to leveraged loans, high yield bonds look superior in terms of leverage (see Figure 4). Increasing leverage and deteriorating covenant quality have been a hallmark of the leveraged loan market the last several quarters. Leverage now stands at north of five times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, (see Figure 4). Most of the proceeds of issuance are now being used for leveraged buyouts (LBOs), dividends or buybacks, and acquisitions (see Figure 5), while investors are demanding little in the way of covenant protections (see Figure 6). Figure 4 Leveraged Loan Fundamentals Gross Leverage; As of June 3, x 5.x 4.5x 4.x 3.5x 3.x 5.14x Figure 5 Leveraged Loan Use of Proceeds; As of July 15, 215 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2.5x % Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg LBO Refinancing Acquisition Dividend/Buyback Other Figure 6 New Issue First-Lien Cov-Lite Loan Volume ($Bn); As of July 15, % Figure 7 Markets Underestimating The Progress Made In Europe Difference In Ranking Between Germany and the Periphery in the World Bank s Survey of How Easy or Difficult it is to Do Business in Different Countries; As of July 15, % 2 Greece Portugal Spain Italy Ireland 15 4% 1 5 2% -2-4 % Volume Percent
4 Global High Yield Perspectives - 3Q 215 p4 Topical Insight June 3, 215 Of particular concern for a high yield investor who considers opportunities globally are the political challenges in Europe as its respective economies adjust, and the continuing decline in emerging market currencies. First, we believe competitiveness is improving in Europe. Investors allocated to this region may be rewarded in coming quarters as the gap between the periphery and Germany in terms of competitiveness improves, even with Greece s challenges (see Figure 7 on previous page). Improved competitiveness is supporting capital formation and real domestic demand growth, both very positive signals that emphasize the efficacy of the European Central Bank s (ECB s) unorthodox monetary policy, although belatedly (see Figures 8 and 9). Figure 8 July s Strong BLS Should Support EA Domestic Demand As of July 15, % 4.% 2.%.% -2.% -4.% -6.% -8.% -1.% -12.% Figure 9 Business Demand For Loans For Fixed Investment Purposes Is A Positive Signal For Investment As of July 15, % 2. 1% 1.. 5% -1. % % % % % % Real Domestic Demand Growth (% q/q ar) Bank Lending Survey: Supply/Demand Indicator BLS 3M Chng In Business Demand for Loans (Fixed Investment) EA Chng In Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%q/q AR) Source: Deutsche Bank, ECB Source: Deutsche Bank, ECB Figure 1 The Eurozone s Morosani Index Indicates A Pick-up In Inflation Eurozone Morosani Index, 6m Smoothed, 12m Lagged & Eurozone Core CPI, 6m Smoothed Morosani Index = Capacity Utilization/Broad Trade Weighted Euro Index Figure 11 Emerging Market Corporate Sector Leverage Debt to EBITDA, Times; As of June 2, Gross Net Morosani Index (RHS) Core CPI (LHS) Source: Gavekal Data/Macrobond Source: IIF As the ECB continues to grow its balance sheet, we believe inflation will rise. In fact, leading indicators indicate an inflation increase is a strong likelihood (see Figure 1). Should this leading indicator be accurate, European high yield and low-quality European residential mortgage-backed securities have the potential to provide attractive returns. While Europe is a story of improvement, emerging markets have been a tale of woe, especially in local currency terms. Declining productivity, enormous currency volatility, and increasing leverage have led to a challenging outlook. Leverage continues to rise in the emerging market corporate sector, having essentially doubled in the last five years (see Figure 11). With lower commodity prices, we anticipate leverage will continue to stay elevated in the coming quarters.
5 Global High Yield Perspectives - 3Q 215 p4 Topical Insight June 3, 215 Our concern is that the currencies have borne the brunt of adjustment while emerging market sovereign and credit spreads have not yet recognized the declining productivity and increasing leverage. A small sampling of emerging market and commodity-dependent currencies highlights the magnitude of changes (see Figure 12); this volatility is also embedded in the currencies of the G2 economies, and is approaching Lehman and potentially may reach Asian crisis levels (see Figure 13). Figure 12 Exchange Rate Changes vs. US Dollar on 2 June 215 (%) 3 Figure 13 GDP-Weighted Ranged-Based FX Volatility (Rolling 52 Weeks) For the Largest 2 Countries in the World; As of June 19, Asian and Russian Financial Crisis -3 2 Lehman Since End-213 Since End CNY JPY INR AUD KRW IDR TWD Source: Bloomberg Source: BofA Merril Lynch Global Research Emerging market sovereign and credit spreads have been especially nonplussed by these factors (see Figure 14). We take these deteriorating macro factors in emerging economies very seriously and expect to have limited exposure in these markets until prices reflect the actual underlying risk. While the U.S. economy continues its path toward moderate economic growth, Europe continues to grapple with the challenges of improving sovereign competitiveness in an inflexible currency union and emerging markets face the challenges of depressed commodity prices. Despite the international factors, the Federal Reserve is intent on tightening monetary policy. Given these factors, we continue to improve quality in our portfolios, 2 reduce credit duration, maintain higher-than-normal cash balances, and limit our emerging market exposures. 15 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 The views expressed represent the opinions of Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. All Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research information obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Fixed income securities are subject to credit risk and interest-rate risk. High yield, lower-rated, fixed income securities involve greater risk than investment-grade fixed income securities. There may be additional risks associated with international investments. International securities may be subject to market/currency fluctuations, investment risks, and other risks involving foreign economic, political, monetary, taxation, auditing and/or legal factors. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. International investing may not be suitable for everyone. Brandywine Global believes that transactions in any option, future, commodity, or other derivative product are not suitable for all persons, and that accordingly, investors should be aware of the risks involved in trading such instruments. There may be significant risks which should be considered prior to investing. Derivatives transactions may increase liquidity risk and introduce other significant risk factors of a complex character. All securities trading, whether in stocks, options or other investment vehicles, is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. Characteristics, holdings and sector weightings are subject to change and should not be considered as investment recommendations. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. All data current as of the date at the top of the page unless otherwise noted. This information should not be considered a solicitation or an offer to provide any Brandywine Global service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so under the laws of that jurisdiction. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 215,. All rights reserved. Figure 14 Adjusting for HY, Spreads Are Not Particularly Wide EMBIG Spreads (bp); As of July 15, EM Credit Index Index Ex-RUS, UKR, VEN, ARG Difference (RHS)
The case for lower rated corporate bonds
The case for lower rated corporate bonds Marcus Pakenham Fixed income product specialist December 3 Introduction Where should fixed income investors be positioned over the medium term? We expect that government
More informationGlobal Credit Perspectives
Topical Insight September 3, 217 Global Credit Perspectives 3Q 217 Overview TAKING STOCK Credit markets continued to provide strong returns for investors willing to bear default and spread volatility risk.
More information4 th Quarter 2015 Webcast. Global Macro Overview. Presented by. Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research
th Quarter 21 Webcast Global Macro Overview Presented by Francis A. Scotland Co-Director of Global Macro Research 2 Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. The views expressed
More informationEUROPEAN LEVERAGED LOAN MARKET IMPACT OF THE CREDIT CRISIS
AVOCA CAPITAL LEVERAGED LOANS EUROPEAN LEVERAGED LOAN MARKET IMPACT OF THE CREDIT CRISIS OUTLOOK 1 AVOCA CAPITAL INTRODUCTION Avoca is a large and long established European leveraged loan manager Top 5
More informationECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationMacro Diversification: Navigating the Shortand Long-Term Asset Allocation Decisions Critical for Investment Success
June 19, 2017 Macro Diversification: Navigating the Shortand Long-Term Asset Allocation Decisions Critical for Investment Success Brian D. Singer, CFA Partner, Portfolio Manager FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationEUROPEAN EQUITIES: gaining traction?
Market insight: EUROPEAN EQUITIES: gaining traction? European equities have lagged behind the US market could this change? SEPTEMBER 2015 Please see pages 14-17 for important disclosures and definitions
More informationUBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions
Thursday, February 5 2015 UBS Forum. Sharper opinions, smarter decisions Madrid Milan London Frankfurt Zurich Chief Investment Office WM The Diverging World CIO Year Ahead 2015 Bill O'Neill Head of Investment
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK March 2016
Austrasse 56 P.O. Box 452 94 Vaduz, Liechtenstein asset@imt.li www.imt.li INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 03.2016 19 March 2016 Since mid-february markets have calmed significantly and risky assets have enjoyed a clear
More information4th Quarter Global Macro Webcast. Presented by. Francis A. Scotland Director of Global Macro Research
4th Quarter 2016 Global Macro Webcast Presented by Francis A. Scotland Director of Global Macro Research 2017 Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved. The views expressed herein
More informationJPMorgan Europe High Yield Bond Fund
AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC CIRCULATION NEW JPMorgan Europe High Yield Bond Fund Asset Management Company of the Year, Asia + Important information 1. The Fund invests at least 7 in European and non-european
More informationEmerging Market Debt: Smoke but no fire
Emerging Market Debt: Smoke but no fire November 2014 Edwin Gutierrez, Head of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Aberdeen Asset Management For Professional Investors only Not for public distribution Smoke
More informationEuro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationEuro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.9 2.6 2.1 3.16 1.15 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationPCA INVESTMENT MARKET RISK METRICS. Monthly Report
PCA INVESTMENT MARKET RISK METRICS Monthly Report June 2017 Takeaways Equity volatility measure (VIX) ended the month at extremely low levels, lowest since the global financial crisis, after a brief inter-month
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More information2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts. The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund.
2015 FUZZY DAY CONFERENCE Facts that are Not Facts The US dollar Safe Haven Myth and the United States Hedge Fund Alessio de Longis 1 The Role of Currency in Institutional Portfolios, edited by Momtchil
More informationFor professional advisers only. Schroders. for Bonds. Strength. in bonds. Best Large Fixed-Interest House
For professional advisers only Schroders for Bonds Strength in bonds Best Large Fixed-Interest House Why Schroders for bonds? Experience: Schroders has a long and successful history, commencing in 1804.
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationNavigating a maturing bull market
Navigating a maturing bull market Asia Pacific Wealth Management March 2018 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE Market Review Market Performance
More informationMonthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee March 2015
Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee March 2015 Our 2015 Thesis: The Great Rebalancing Act Tapering was tightening last year despite the rhetoric it was not. Dollar strength
More informationEmerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals
For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table
More informationHigh yield and emerging market bonds continue rally
Markit iboxx monthly report April 216 High yield and emerging market bonds continue rally April saw corporate and emerging market bond returns continue to gain amid a calmer economic backdrop. Calmer markets
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationCorporate bonds resurgent in March
Corporate bonds resurgent in March Markit iboxx monthly report March 216 After a volatile start to the year, fixed income returns bounced back in spectacular fashion with corporate and emerging market
More informationKDP ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.
ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. High Yield Bond and Senior Secured Bank Loan Outlook June 2017 Asset Management, Inc. 24 Elm Street Montpelier, Vermont 802.223.0440 HighYield@kdpam.com The Case for High Yield Bonds
More informationInvestment Market Risk Metrics August 2011
Investment Market Risk Metrics August 2011 Takeaways Data is as of Monday August 8, 2011 Interest rate risk increased to levels not seen since Dec 2008 Equity market volatility spiked after U.S. Treasury
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationStrategic Allocaiton to High Yield Corporate Bonds Why Now?
Strategic Allocaiton to High Yield Corporate Bonds Why Now? May 11, 2015 by Matthew Kennedy of Rainier Investment Management HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BONDS - WHY NOW? The demand for higher yielding fixed income
More informationFirst Quarter, European emerging market bonds were introduced as a separate category in this report in the second quarter of 2008.
First Quarter, 9 The European High Yield Association (EHYA), an affiliate of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, is pleased to present the ninth quarterly issue of the European High
More informationNavigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification
Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification April 2017 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. Please
More informationGovernment Investment Officers Conference March 24, 2016
Government Investment Officers Conference March 24, 2016 A 21 st Century Look at Risk Management Lessons of the Post-Lehman Era 1 Larry McDonald Managing Director, Global Head of Macro Strategy, ACG Analytics,
More informationInvestment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets
Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal
More informationBONDS WITHOUT BORDERS
BONDS WITHOUT BORDERS Discover opportunities in global bond markets While U.S. fixed income investors have traditionally stayed close to home, there are compelling reasons for venturing farther afield.
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationoutlook : us and european HIGH YIELD bond IN 2011
outlook : us and european HIGH YIELD bond IN 211 january 211 AT A GLANCE Expect mid-to-high single digit returns from high yield in 211 Company fundamentals are favourable and valuations are around fair
More informationInvestment-grade and high-yield credit interest rates, spreads, defaults and liquidity keep
Investment-grade and high-yield credit interest rates, spreads, defaults and liquidity keep arry lpha iquidity anaged September 2016 Macro outlook Continued muddle-through global economic growth, no recession
More informationCredit Outlook Are market expectations too good to be true? For Investment Professionals only Market Insights
218 Market Insights For Investment Professionals only An update from the Fixed Income team Credit Outlook 218 Are market expectations too good to be true? Ben Bennett is the Head of Credit Strategy, focusing
More informationEurope between Debt Crisis and Liquidity Glut
Europe between Debt Crisis and Liquidity Glut Europa zwischen Schuldenkrise und Liquiditätsschwemme Ben Funnell Man Wien, 8. Mai 2012 Firmenlogo Europe - The Problem A Growth / Competitiveness Imbalance
More informationFinancing ESOP Transactions- Lenders Perspective
Financing ESOP Transactions- Lenders Perspective 2015 California/Western States Chapter Conference Denver, Colorado September 24, 2015 Kurt Mair SVP and Western Regional ESOP Director Wells Fargo & Co.
More informationMonthly Market Update August 2016
Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationLEGG MASON INCOME OPTIMISER FUND
LEGG MASON INCOME OPTIMISER FUND Gary Herbert & Regina Borromeo Portfolio Managers JUNE 2014 This document is for Asset Managers, Fund Distributors and Authorised Intermediaries. Not for use by Private
More informationThird Quarter, European emerging market bonds were introduced as a separate category in this report in the second quarter of 2008.
Third Quarter, 9 The AFME / EHYA, formerly the European High Yield Association (EHYA), is pleased to present the eleventh quarterly issue of the European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report. The report
More informationInvesting in a Time of (Financial) Repression. Cyril Moullé-Berteaux, Head of Global Asset Allocation
Investing in a Time of (Financial) Repression Cyril Moullé-Berteaux, Head of Global Asset Allocation Overview Positioning for the long-term The growing Yield Bubble Europe outperformance may just be starting
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK JUNE 2018 MACRO-ECONOMICS. Developed and Emerging Markets
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK JUNE 2018 MACRO-ECONOMICS Developed and Emerging Markets Trade tariffs and protectionist themes have dominated global markets throughout the year and risks have further heightened through
More information2015 Leveraged Finance Outlook and 2014 Annual Review
Fixed Income Research http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics 2015 Leveraged Finance Outlook and 2014 Annual Review Research Analysts Jonathan Blau 212 538 3533 jonathan.blau@credit-suisse.com
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More informationQ Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for Rising Rates, Volatility and Emerging Markets
Q1 2018 Fixed Income Survey: Expectations for Rising Rates, Volatility and Emerging Markets April 4, 2018 by Adam Smears of Russell Investments The dichotomy between views from interest rate managers and
More informationNavigating the Fixed Income Minefield
Navigating the Fixed Income Minefield Jeffrey Sherman, CFA Portfolio Manager DoubleLine Capital February 20, 2014 When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen. - Bob Farrell
More informationPCA INVESTMENT MARKET RISK METRICS
PCA INVESTMENT MARKET RISK METRICS Monthly Report August 2017 (as of 7/31/17) Takeaways Growth risk-based assets throughout the globe produced moderately positive returns during July, whereas U.S. interest
More informationLearning objectives. Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss
Learning objectives Investors should leave the presentation with an ability to discuss the fundamentals and valuations of emerging markets economies in 2018 the key risks of emerging market debt in 2018
More informationGlobal Fixed Income Weekly
Global Fixed Income Weekly Executive Summary US nonfarm payroll employment rose by 103,000 in March, falling short of consensus expectations by 82,000; the undershoot is likely due to weather effects and
More informationAberdeen Asset Management
Aberdeen Asset Management Fixed income overview March 2016 David Lloyd-Nolan, Senior Fixed Income Product Specialist Aberdeen Asset Management For professional investors only Not for public distribution
More informationVítor Constâncio ECB Vice-President. Fragmentation and Rebalancing in the euro area
Vítor Constâncio ECB Vice-President Fragmentation and Rebalancing in the euro area Joint EC-ECB Conference on Financial Integration Brussels, 25 April 2013 Introduction Rubric In the first half of 2012,
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public
More informationthe drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 2017 Global Investment Committee
the drive you demand ASSET ALLOCATION June 217 Global Investment Committee GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION Rising earnings argue for remaining overweight equities Global economy / Asset allocation Sustained
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationPRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More information2018 Convertible Outlook
SSI Investment Management January 2018 2018 Convertible Outlook By: Ravi Malik, CFA, Portfolio Manager 2017 was a strong year for risk assets including convertibles, driven by synchronized global expansion,
More informationPIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks September 26, 2013 by Andrew Balls of PIMCO In the following interview, Andrew Balls, managing director and head of European portfolio
More informationThe Royal Bank of Scotland Group
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Q311 Fixed Income Investor Call 4 th November 2011 John Cummins Group Treasurer Liam Coleman Deputy Group Treasurer Emete Hassan Head of Debt Investor Relations Important
More informationThe Malaysian Economy
The Malaysian Economy Prospects and critical issues in 2011-20122012 Presentation for ISIS PRAXIS Seminar Nor Zahidi Alias Chief Economist March 3 rd, 2011 In a nutshell US economy is emitting more positive
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationWashington & The Investment Landscape Daniel Clifton February 2019 Macro Research
Washington & The Investment Landscape Daniel Clifton February 2019 Macro Research Investment Strategy Economics Policy Research Quantitative Research Technical Research Fixed Income Research Industry Surveys
More informationHIGH YIELD MANAGING RISING RATES THROUGH SHORT DATED HIGH YIELD
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. PLEASE REFER TO ALL RISK DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS DOCUMENT. HIGH YIELD MANAGING RISING RATES THROUGH SHORT DATED
More informationWhy European equity valuations should approach the US
Insights Monthly update on an Markets October 2017 Why an equity valuations should approach the US Summary Hot Topic. Over the last 20 years, the an market has traded at a valuation discount to that of
More informationRecent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting
Recent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting 18.03.04 Schedule Major Events Capital Markets Money Market Outlook Regulatory Credit Provision FRA EONIA FWD EONIA Monetary Policy Equity Markets Liquidity
More informationBank for International Settlements, February
WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Peter Wilson Global Fixed Income Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments... 7 March
More informationThe Corporate Loan Market in a Global Context
The Corporate Loan Market in a Global Context Moderator: Panelists: Bram Smith, LSTA Fred Haddad GoldenTree Paul Hatfield, Alcentra David Lerner, Shenkman Dan McMullen, GSO Hong Kong June 8, 2017 Agenda
More informationQ Outlook and Strategy Income Funds
Q3 Outlook and Strategy Income Funds Industry Recognitions for Asian Fixed Income Capabilities Organiser Award Asia Asset Management Best of the Best Performance Awards 2015: Asian Bonds (3 years) 1 Best
More informationOutlook for 2014 Title 1. David Greene, Pioneer Investments
Outlook for 2014 Title 1 David Greene, Pioneer Investments 2014 A year of Transition Transitioning from fiscal tightening to less austerity. Transitioning from Euro-area recession to growth. Transitioning
More informationQuarterly High Yield Market Summary
Quarterly High Yield Market Summary As of December 31, 2013 Aside from a brief respite in October, risk free rates trended higher in Q4 2013 (up 42 basis points in the 10 Year and 36 bps in the 5 Year),
More informationGlobal Credit Perspectives
Global Credit Perspectives 1Q 218 Overview Yields on 1- and 3-year Treasuries have climbed roughly 5 and 4 basis points (bps), respectively, since mid-december 217. Investors responded to average hourly
More informationFirst Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund Update
1st Quarter 2015 Fund Performance Review & Current Positioning The First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (FPF) produced a total return for the first quarter of 2015 of 3.84% based on
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly September 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Growth weakness in emerging
More informationReal Returns for Fixed Income Investors Investment Update Waiting for Fed Liftoff
Real Returns for Fixed Income Investors Investment Update Waiting for Fed Liftoff CAJPA Fall Conference September 17, 2015 Martin Cassell, CFA CEO, Chief Investment Officer 6225 Lusk Boulevard San Diego,
More informationEuropean Direct Lending
Presentation on: European Direct Lending May 204 Macro-Economic Context: Supply of Capital 2 Regulations Encourage Banks to Focus on Balance Sheet Size and Composition Billions 80 60 40 20 00 80 60 40
More informationAsset allocation achieving the right mix
Asset allocation achieving the right mix Learning outcomes The objective of the presentation is to help develop your understanding of: The benefits and drawbacks of a range of asset allocation styles The
More informationAugust iboxx bond monitor: UK bonds continue surge
Markit iboxx monthly report August 2016 August iboxx bond monitor: UK bonds continue surge Bonds provided relatively flat returns last month as the possibility of a US rate rise saw investors continue
More informationFixed income market dislocations. Benoît Hubaud Global Head of Fixed Income Research
Fixed income market dislocations Benoît Hubaud Global Head of Fixed Income Research Dislocation: one word, two definitions An extreme movement which can be absolute or relative EuroStoxx 5 up +15% Five
More informationThe Current Risk Landscape. Axioma Insight Findings Melissa R. Brown, CFA
The Current Risk Landscape Axioma Insight Findings Melissa R. Brown, CFA About Axioma Axioma provides portfolio construction, risk modeling and performance attribution tools to asset managers and asset
More informationPortuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018
Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 1 st quarter 218 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 27 th June of 218. Macroeconomic indicators and banking system data are quarterly
More informationInvestment Market Risk Metrics April 2013
Investment Market Risk Metrics April 2013 Pension Consulting Alliance, Inc. Takeaways The markets are currently less concerned about equity risk than what is typical. VIX remained well below average at
More informationGS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research The CLO market shows signs of life GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research March 31, 11 Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-917-33-31 alberto.gallo@gs.com
More informationThree Big Global Questions
Three Big Global Questions Nick Kounis Head Macro & Financial Markets Research Marine Money Athens 14 October 2015 Will developed economies continue to recover? 2 US consumer making a comeback Job gains,
More informationA sudden drop in risk appetite
* A sudden drop in risk appetite The eruption of US equity market volatility, with global spillover effects, is a delayed reaction to a rather significant increase in bond yields since the second part
More informationAsian fixed income. Rare value in an uncertain world. February For professional clients only. Not for further distribution.
Asian fixed income Rare value in an uncertain world February 216 Content Asian fixed income returns in context Macro situation in Asia Market overview Key considerations in Asian fixed income 2 Asian fixed
More informationGlobal Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department
Global Outlook and Policy Challenges Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department February, 29 Global Outlook Has Deteriorated, but Modest Turnaround Anticipated with Policy Stimulus 1 WEO
More informationMarch Bond Fund Quarterly Review
March 2018 Bond Fund Quarterly Review William Blair Bond Fund Important Disclosures Please refer to the last page of this Quarterly Review for definitions of the Indices used in this report. Risks: The
More informationManaging Through The Credit Cycle
July 2016 Managing Through The Credit Cycle We are in the seventh year of an economic expansion, but how long will it last? As we enter into the seventh year of an economic expansion, many investors are
More informationThe Greek Bond Market in 2007
The Greek Bond Market in 2007 15 YEAR BENCHMARK ISSUE MAY 2007 MARKET ANALYSIS +30 210 326 2070, marketanalysis@alpha.gr Financial Markets Group Planning Department Please refer to important Disclaimer
More informationHow do we define cash on the sidelines? Global M2 minus M1 Money Supply ($ Millions) US Money Supply European Money Supply Chinese Money Supply
How do we define cash on the sidelines? Global M2 minus M1 Money Supply ($ Millions) 30000 25000 20000 15000 US Money Supply European Money Supply Chinese Money Supply 10000 5000 0 Source: Bloomberg, Credit
More informationWhy Now for European Senior Secured Loans?
Why Now for European Senior Secured Loans? Market Features, Relative Value & Portfolio Inclusion Benefits The syndicated senior secured loan market, which until 2009 was the dominant sub-investment grade
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update
Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied
More informationGUIDANCE FOR CALCULATION OF LOSSES DUE TO APPLICATION OF MARKET RISK PARAMETERS AND SOVEREIGN HAIRCUTS
Annex 4 18 March 2011 GUIDANCE FOR CALCULATION OF LOSSES DUE TO APPLICATION OF MARKET RISK PARAMETERS AND SOVEREIGN HAIRCUTS This annex introduces the reference risk parameters for the market risk component
More informationRakan Mosely Head of Financial Markets Phone: (0)
Rakan Mosely Head of Financial Markets Phone: (0)20 7803 1400 rmosely@oxfordeconomics.com The ECB s TLTROs: bazooka or peashooter? Ben May Senior Eurozone Economist bmay@oxfordeconomics.com June 2014 Outline
More informationRisultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari. Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari
Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari Stagflation What does it look like? UK growth and inflation % % 8 25 6 4 2-2 -4 Trend growth
More information