Lazard Emerging Markets Multi Asset Fund

Transcription

1 PAGE 1 Fund Commentary Faced with a combination of rising trade tensions, weak currencies in reaction to a strong U.S. dollar and a new set of Russian sanctions, emerging markets equities fell significantly in the second quarter of The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 6%, in Canadian dollar terms. The sharpest declines were registered in Latin America, followed by Africa and Europe. Asian and Middle Eastern shares outperformed the index. The period also included a material strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which negatively impacted the vast majority of emerging markets currencies. Investors began to anticipate an accelerating pace of U.S. economic growth at a moment when growth elsewhere began decelerating, a change that drove 10-year U.S. Treasury yields above 3%. The stronger U.S. dollar then caused downward pressure in the currencies of several countries, most prominently those with current account deficits, rising inflation and relatively low interest rates such as Argentina and Turkey. It also impacted the Brazilian real where, despite a current account surplus and substantial reserves, the currency was used as a hedge against the Argentine peso. In fixed income, external debt as represented by the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index recorded a 1.7% loss for the quarter. Local currency debt, as represented by the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, lost 8.6% over the same period, both in Canadian dollar terms. Against this backdrop, the Lazard Emerging Markets Multi Asset Fund underperformed its benchmark, the MSCI EM index. Positive Contributors The following added to the Fund s relative performance during the quarter: Asset Allocation Fixed income Small cap equities Security Selection Stock selection in the materials and utilities sectors Stock selection in China and Taiwan Underweight exposure to South African equities Exposure to hard currency debt in Colombia and Indonesia Exposure to local currency positions in Egypt Performance Detractors The following detracted from the Fund s relative performance during the quarter: Security Selection Stock selection in the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy and financials sectors Stock selection in Brazil, India, Russia and Turkey Overweight exposure to equities in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey Exposure to hard currency debt in Argentina, Egypt, Lebanon and Kenya Exposure to local currencies in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa Outlook U.S. trade policy rhetoric and implementation will continue to be a focus for emerging markets, suggesting more downside than upside risk in the near term, though fundamentals are strong enough to provide support. In an

2 PAGE 2 environment of structurally higher volatility, the emerging markets will show a broader dispersion of returns than in the low volatility environment of Portfolio flows turned negative after the strong January inflows due to increased volatility of global markets, despite the ongoing strength of global synchronized growth. The U.S. dollar remains another key exogenous factor and if it continues to strengthen it could pressure certain emerging markets currency crosses of those countries with external vulnerabilities, as has occurred in Argentina and Turkey. Responding to the latest round of U.S. trade policies against China, the market is pricing in the negative impact on exports, on affected companies and the renminbi. Going forward, equities could be supported at the margin by potential inflows following the inclusion of A-shares in the MSCI EM Index from June; and they should benefit from the recent reserve requirement cut and recovering PMI levels. Trade is less important for India, though higher oil prices will have a negative impact and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely have to raise rates to contain subsequent inflation pressures. Solid domestic consumption and exports should be supportive of South Korea, though equity prices will remain subject to newsflow on both trade and diplomatic progress with North Korea. Higher oil prices could also crimp growth and cause inflation in Taiwan, complicating an otherwise strong export and consumption backdrop. The bond market in Indonesia is especially sensitive to long rates in the United States, forcing the central bank to raise rates recently to protect the currency, which will weigh on equity prices in the short term. Local demand and infrastructure investment should add to strong trade surpluses to drive growth and markets in Thailand. The central bank in the Philippines will be on an aggressive rate increase program this year to contain inflation and currency weakness after several quarters of above-potential growth. Malaysian markets should stabilize after weakness on the surprise election of Mahathir Mohamad and subsequent fiscal balance concerns; foreign flows could potentially turn positive if the higher oil price backdrop is sustained. The currency in South Africa should be stable to slightly weaker after an aggressive strengthening following Ramaphosa s win in December s African National Congress (ANC) election. With firmer investment confidence, the local manufacturing sector could revive this cycle, which would have a very positive multiplier effect on the economy and set it on a firmer footing, provided energy-driven inflation is restrained. The central bank of Russia should have room for further rate cuts, adding to a stronger growth outlook given the level of crude oil prices and offsetting the added political and sanctions risk associated with the market. After a sub-optimal election outcome for the market and inflation, the lira will be the focus of investors in Turkey, with recent FX volatility only contained by steep interest rate hikes. Local activity will be negatively impacted and further weakness possible given the high level of U.S. dollar obligations that local companies have accumulated in recent years. Within the next 12 months, we will have gone through the hard deadline for the U.K. to leave the EU, which is likely to have the most impact on project funding in Eastern Europe, though for now the region should benefit from generally improved economic activity in the block. Trade and the NAFTA treaty will dominate sentiment in Mexico, given President-elect Lopez Obrador s victory in July is effectively priced into equities and the peso. The hope is that there will be structural checks on the left-wing president s policies and that he only wins a simple majority in congress. Politics will be the focus for investors in Brazil, which will likely become more volatile in the run up to the October presidential election. Drastic reforms are still required to tackle the fiscal deficit and no candidate will be leading with this to get elected. The size of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) package for Argentina has brought comfort to investors following the surprise request for assistance from Buenos Aires only months after returning to international markets. Reduced electoral risks and firmer oil prices should support Colombia, though investment grade status is dependent on the candidates being fiscally prudent. This will be a period of consolidation for President Sebastián Piñera in Chile after the recent election, with firm copper prices and declining inflation a positive market

3 PAGE 3 backdrop. The central bank in Peru should continue easing to counter disinflationary forces and political noise here should dissipate, helping the currency and markets. Over the quarter, we decreased our equity allocation from 70% to 61% while correspondingly increasing fixed income. Within fixed income, the most meaningful increase was to short-duration local currency debt. About Lazard Since 1848, Lazard has remained a trusted advisor to governments, financial institutions, public and private retirement plansand individuals around the world. Lazard serves investors with a broad range of global investment solutions and investment management services with an emphasis on strategies that benefit from intensive research and active management. The result is a strong pattern of long-term performance, global perspective and deep insight into local markets.

4 PAGE 4 Contribution Analysis (relative to benchmark) LAST QUARTER LAST 12 MONTHS INDUSTRY INDUSTRY Capital Markets 0.34 Banks Construction Materials 0.57 Internet Software & Services Air Freight & Logistics 0.25 Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Capital Markets 0.56 Banks Real Estate Mgmt & Development 0.24 Media Automobiles 0.40 Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Semicond. & Semicond. Equip Specialty Retail Diversified Consumer Services 0.38 Chemicals Elect. Equip., Instr. & Components 0.16 IT Services Insurance 0.32 Media COUNTRY COUNTRY China 0.82 Brazil Russia 0.93 Brazil South Africa 0.42 Argentina Canada 0.55 India Thailand 0.32 Russia Portugal 0.25 Turkey Malaysia 0.24 Turkey Hungary 0.11 Argentina South Korea 0.24 Indonesia Peru 0.09 China COMPANY COMPANY ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A 0.25 YPF SA Class D Sberbank 0.71 Tencent Holdings Ltd LARGAN Precision Co., Ltd Petrobras Distribuidora SA Baidu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A 0.66 China State Construction International Holdings Limited Baidu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A 0.21 Banco do Brasil S.A AAC Technologies Holdings Inc YPF SA Class D Silicon Motion Technology Corporation Sponsored ADR 0.20 PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Localiza Rent A Car S.A Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR F & F Co., Ltd Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Class H 0.57 Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi -0.40

5 PAGE 5 FOR DISTRIBUTION TO INVESTORS BY REGISTERED DEALERS ONLY. Bridgehouse Asset Managers is a trade name of Brandes Investment Partners & Co. (Bridgehouse). Brandes Investment Partners is a registered trademark of Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. (Brandes LP), which is an affiliate of Bridgehouse. Bridgehouse is the manager of the Bridgehouse Funds and has hired Brandes LP, Greystone Managed Investments Inc. (Greystone), Lazard Asset Management (Canada), Inc. (Lazard), Morningstar Associates Inc. (Morningstar) and Sionna Investment Managers Inc. (Sionna) as portfolio sub-advisors (collectively, the portfolio sub-advisors ) in respect of the Bridgehouse Funds. The foregoing reflects the thoughts, opinions and investment strategies of Bridgehouse and/or the portfolio sub-advisors and is subject to change at their discretion, based on changing market dynamics or other considerations. Bridgehouse and the portfolio sub-advisors have taken reasonable steps to provide accurate and current data. The data has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Bridgehouse and/or the portfolio sub-advisors are not responsible for any errors or omissions contained herein. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into. Securities mentioned herein are not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This material has been provided by Bridgehouse and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice and is not to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. This report may contain forward-looking statements about the economy, and markets; their future performance, strategies or prospects. Units and shares of the Bridgehouse Funds are available through registered dealers only and are not available through Bridgehouse. The words may, could, should, would, suspect, outlook, believe, plan, anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, forecast, objective and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties about general economic factors, so it is possible that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. You are cautioned to not place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement. Before making any investment decisions, you are encouraged to consider these and other factors carefully. Where applicable, please note that MSCI has not approved, reviewed or produced this report, makes no express or implied warranties or representations and is not liable whatsoever for any data in the report. You may not redistribute the MSCI data or use it as a basis for other indices or investment products. Published August 2, 2018