HSBC Fund Update. HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond. March Summary. Market overview. market.
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1 HSBC Fund Update March 2015 HSBC GIF Global Emerging Markets Bond Summary Market sentiment improved in February given supportive global developments including the interim agreement between Greece and its bailout creditors, as well as the dovish tone in Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen s semi-annual testimony to Congress, stating considerable progress has been achieved in the recovery of the labour market. The Emerging Markets Debt - Core strategy returned 1.74% in February, versus the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index return of 1.25%. The combination of deterioration in fundamentals in select Emerging Markets countries, the ongoing economic rebalancing in China and the prospect of monetary policy normalization in the US paints a complicated picture for Emerging Market (EM) assets. As a result, going forward we will be focusing our investments in countries that meet the following criteria: 1) floating currency regimes, which should allow the country to absorb external shocks, 2) high levels of external reserves and 3) proven track record of orthodox monetary and fiscal policies. These countries account for approximately 64% of the market value in the hard currency index (JP Morgan EMBI Global). Market overview Market sentiment improved in February given supportive global developments including the interim agreement between Greece and its bailout creditors, as well as the dovish tone in Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen s semi-annual testimony to Congress, stating considerable progress has been achieved in the recovery of the labour market. Given the continued strengthening of the US economy and muted growth in the rest of the world, the US dollar continued to surge, appreciating 11.6% in February (DXY Index). After seven consecutive months of negative returns, oil rebounded and returned +18% in February (Brent Oil) which contributed to the strong performance of oil exporting emerging market countries, most significantly Venezuela and Russia. US Treasury 10-year yields began the month 1.64%, the lowest level since May Given this low starting point in addition to a strong payroll report as well as stronger than expected unit labor costs, Treasury yields rebounded significantly in the month. Yields peaked at 2.14% before ending the month at 1.99%. Following the January downgrade of Russia by the S&P below investment grade, Moody s downgraded Russia by one notch to Ba1 in February. Moody s cited sustainably worse economic prospects due to the crisis in Ukraine, lower oil prices and weaker exchange rate as the main reasons behind the downgrade. This downgrade resulted in Russia losing their Investment grade status which had a limited market impact as positioning had likely been adjusted already by most rating-sensitive investors. The month of February was divided for emerging market assets in terms of performance. Hard currency assets were supported by the rally in oil and strong performance of Venezuela, while local currency assets continued to suffer given the further strengthening of the US dollar. Hard currency bonds returned 1.25% (JP Morgan EMBI Global) with the investment grade component underperforming 0.56% versus 3.27% for the high yield countries given the widening of US Treasury yields. Local currency bonds returned -1.34%(JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified). Local currencies returned -0.39% (JP Morgan EMLI+).
2 Portfolio strategy The Emerging Markets Debt - Core strategy returned 1.74% in February, versus the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index return of 1.25%. The strategy significantly outperformed the benchmark in February driven by the exposure to oil sensitive names as well as the overall underweight to hard currency duration. The strategy was defensively positioned with an underweight to hard currency duration of approximately -1.5 years versus the benchmark over the month. This defensive positioning contributed to relative performance given the increase in US 10-year Treasury yields from 1.65% to a range of %. The overweight exposure to Venezuela was a large contributor to relative performance as the country was the best performer in the index (JPM EMBIG) given the significant rebound in oil as well as improved investor sentiment due to the announcement of a new currency exchange rate regime as well as the official external reserve number coming in stronger than expected. Given the bounce in oil, the strategy s overweight exposure to Russia external debt and off-benchmark exposure to the Russian ruble were strong contributors to performance. The ruble was the strongest performing currency in the universe, rising 11% against the dollar. The strategy s underweight to Ukraine contributed to performance as market concerns about the need for restructuring of Ukraine s debt have sent the prices of Ukraine s bonds lower. The zero-weight exposure to Argentina detracted from performance as the country was a strong performer due to technical reasons. The strategy remained defensively positioned, ending the month with an underweight to spread duration of years versus the benchmark and an underweight to hard currency duration of years versus the benchmark. Outlook The combination of deterioration in fundamentals in select Emerging Markets countries, the ongoing economic rebalancing in China and the prospect of monetary policy normalization in the US paints a complicated picture for EM assets. As a result, going forward we will be focusing our investments in countries that meet the following criteria: 1) floating currency regimes, which should allow the country to absorb external shocks, 2) high levels of external reserves and 3) proven track record of orthodox monetary and fiscal policies. These countries account for approximately 64% of the market value in the hard currency index (JP Morgan EMBI Global). We expect there will be continued volatility and negative headlines around select EM countries, particularly those with weaker economic fundamentals, fixed rate currency regimes and lower liquidity. The headlines could potentially impact the asset class as a whole leading to further market correction and in that environment, we will focus on opportunities to add exposure. We maintain underweight in local duration in select countries as we believe that local currency yields are likely to come under pressure to increase. Many EM countries will have to respond to rising inflationary pressures resulting from a foreign exchange depreciation pass through effect and to the potential threat of capital outflows as US monetary policy normalizes. We have gradually increased our currency exposure following improvement in valuations and technicals over the past few months. We will continue to remain selective however by adding currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations and reducing exposure to currencies that have further room to adjust. Source: HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited as of March Data shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendation to buy or sell in the above-mentioned countries, sectors, securities or asset classes. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. 2
3 Country allocation 1 Sector allocation 1 Mexico 14.3% Others 22.4% Russia 8.6% Turkey 8.3% Venezuela 5.2% United Colombia 6.2% Cash 10.9% Indonesia 9.8% Brazil 6.7% States 7.5% Corporate (Hard Ccy), 2.0% Sovereign (Hard Ccy), 80.0% Local FX, 4.0% Quasi (Hard Ccy), 1 Currency allocation 1,2 Credit rating allocation 1,2 CHF 1.0% RUB 2.0% BB 17.0% B 1.0% CCC AAA AA A 17.0% USD 97.0% BBB 50.0% Portfolio characteristics 1,2 Duration Average credit rating 5.61 years BBB No. of holdings 246 Yield to maturity* 5.31% Top 10 holdings 1 Name Weight (%) Russia Eurodollar Bond 7.5% 31/03/ Indonesia Republic 4.875% 05/05/ Mexico (United Mexican States) 4.00% 02/10/ Colombia (Rep of) 4.0% 26/02/ US Treasury Bills 0% 7/5/ US Treasury Bills 0% 14/05/ Colombia (Rep of) 4.375% 12/07/ Turkey (Rep of) 7.0% 11/03/ Indonesia Republic 3.75% 25/04/ Republic Of South Africa 6.875% 27/05/ *The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Source: 1. HSBC Investment Funds (Hong Kong) Limited as at 28 February Data shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute to any investment recommendation to buy or sell in the above-mentioned countries, sectors, currencies, securities, or rating categorised assets. 2. The information provided is based on un-audited data and is for reference only. The average quality is calculated according to HSBC methodology which is a weighted average of each of the Fund's holdings. 3
4 Performance 3 HSBC GIF Emerging Markets Bond Class PD Annualised % 1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs Inception (9 July 1999) NAV NAV* BM Dividend table (Class AM) 4 Month Dividend amount NAV as of ex-dividend date Annualised yield # Feb-14 USD USD % Mar-14 USD USD % Apr-14 USD USD % May-14 USD USD % Jun-14 USD USD % Jul-14 USD USD % Aug-14 USD USD % Sep-14 USD USD % Oct-14 USD USD % Nov-14 USD USD % Dec-14 USD USD % Jan-15 USD USD % Feb-15 USD USD % Source: 3. HSBC Global Asset Management & Morningstar, Inc. date as at 28 February *Net of sales charge. BM = Benchmark was JP Morgan EMBI+ Composite before January 2000 and was changed to JP Morgan EMBI Global afterwards. Class PD (known as class AD before 1 January 2011) is not available for new subscriptions, except for investors who had an existing Regular Savings Plan before 1 January Investors who wish to subscribe should refer to the new Class AD of the same fund. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. 4. HSBC Investment Funds (Hong Kong) Limited as at 28 February Dividend is not guaranteed and may be paid out of capital which will result in reduction in net asset value. A positive distribution yield does not imply a positive return. # The calculation method of annualized yield: based on Class AM (USD) for calculation (dividend value / bid price as of ex-dividend date) x 12. The dividend yield of a dividend distribution currency hedged class may be lower or higher than the dividend yield of other corresponding unhedged classes due to costs of hedging and difference in interest rate between currencies. 4
5 Disclaimer This document is prepared for general information purposes only and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The opinions expressed herein should not be considered to be a recommendation by HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited to any reader of this material to buy or sell securities, commodities, currencies or other investments referred to herein. It is published for information only and does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. This document does not constitute an offering document. Investors should not invest in the Fund solely based on the information provided in this document and should read the offering document of the Fund for details. Investors may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser before purchasing units in the fund. In the event that the investor chooses not to seek advice from a financial adviser, he should consider whether the fund in question is suitable for him. Investment involves risk. The past performance of any fund and the manager and any economic and market trends/forecasts are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund. The value of investments and units may go down as well as up, and the investor may not get back the original sum invested. Investors and potential investors should read the Singapore prospectus (including the risk warnings) which is available at HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited or its authorised distributors, before investing. Changes in rates of currency exchange may affect significantly the value of the investment. HSBC Holdings plc, its subsidiaries and other associated companies which are its subsidiaries, and including without limitation HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (collectively, the HSBC Group ), affiliates and clients of the HSBC Group, and directors and/or staff of any of the foregoing may, at any time, have a position in the markets referred to herein, and may buy or sell securities, currencies, or any other financial instruments in such markets. HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified. Care has been taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of this presentation but HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited and HSBC Group accept no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions contained therein. HSBC Global Asset Management (Singapore) Limited 21 Collyer Quay #06-01 HSBC Building Singapore Telephone: (65) Facsimile: (65) Website: Company Registration No R 5
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