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1 ر ر ١٣٩ "#!ت &٢-٣٩ دور ٣ ر ٩ زن 2* /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ "! ; / &.- ) ) /8&9! 2* 2.-8* C = *7 < /&&0 1%&' 2* -)H (2002) )0D 30 () * + (,.- + L/ 3C -&&0 3C M<, 2-J38 K 2I+ 0D PQ R&/.&* L/! 27"8 0D 2 O. 2 N& #$ 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, 7. S 7"8 K </ * + %& &' & OT0 * XK VW0 "! 1U<.&0 &'8 3C M<, 2-J38 2 -&&0 7 1Z N& (2006) 2 U& (2010) 3C -&&0 D 3C 2-J38 K 7. &-.+ &1+ 3C -&&0 [ * + (, 2-.+ S R&/ &* L/ \ 2H 1&'8. 3C -&&0 3C M<, 2-J38 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, :!$%!" 94/10/6 :7J0-8& `& 94/12/10 :7J0 ;&9! `& : b0 =1& Vahid20t@yahoo.com * '&O 0] D ^S '&O 2 * S.1 '&O 0] D ^S '&O 2 2/. 2 \S.2

2 1394 /0 9 <+ ( & 2. ( /0 V&d () 2[ -<C 7 2 P&< & /&&0 1%&' h)0 gj$0 %& 7 (2015 N< f) -.+ X01M + - 2) 7 2H 1%&' & X0. NM<, '.<.- + P&O 9* C ^S Z VK ij0 10 X01M 229*7& &&0 (1957) <, 7.(1992!) - X0. NM<, 7 / 7 -O 9* +^ +0 2* -&&0 gm 7 7. /&&0 1%&' K0 -], J Q N/0 - **h<m 2lj/ 27, <\0 K0 ^ =1 S /&&0 1%&' 6 &.- 2*& NM<, X[]/ /1& J) / WK0 -& MC 7 -O (1992)! (1991) '.H.(1993 N< U& n1960 -& J n X0. NM<, 7 -O - d 7 &N&0D 2-.+ & (2005) N< (*.7/8* C / 0 X+ 7 g17. 29*7&0 /8 X X01M ; &0 % ;'* /&&0 X0. ;^ () * + (, #$ ^ ^f " g3jw0 7S0 XK.0 C 0 ) ) /8&9! *7&0 X<<m J0 2^+'* / V&d & S 271&' 7. J +0 P /0 -&&0 7 X0.. O ph) - [ 27Z]0PC d 7 0) 2 &-J38 1f X01M ;^ () * + 29*#$ g10 L/0 2*&.(2014 N< S8 () 2[ * & *& %&. H /&&0 X0. '.< X0. R&/ & qh 0 0 &'8 -&&0 7&0 7 *& &. +0 X0. ;^ 7 &0 P&< qh 0 0C 1f 7\/.11. M XZ s0 () * rq (1993) gm. +0 " 0) i 271&'. V&d 7 73JW0 & /.1.0 %<. VK X 21t 7 V&d &1f 7! & %u<. /&&u0 1%&' () * + (, #$ g10! s& + &H ;u^ ()u u * u+ &D h8 27* + " g3jw0.1.0 * / &S D 7.& & 0. X0.

3 41 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ & (. +0 -&&0 1%&' s0 *0 -&&0. 7 \10 () 2[ 7u. uu0 us 73JW0 & R&/.!0 -&&0 #v0 P0, 7 73JW0 u hu)0 wuo %& 0. &0 7OMd-Q8 X0C () * + g3jw0 R&/ x d \& -&& () -3" #$u %u& -u un<0 * + O) X0 C )1S! " u. uj Vu&d u3c 29u*7&0u X<<um Ju0 2^+'* -L. #v0 u XuL gu10 VuK 7u3JW0 & %< /+ -&&0 2 + Xu/ 2 2uZ uo0.- 3C -&&0 3C 2-J38 2,t yw u1, 7u -.u+ 3C 2-J38 2, t yw & 20 h/0 L/ 0 un<0 uiu+ & -&&0 2'^. zkj & +0 -&&0 30.1u+ 7/u+ u 2<, 22N/ t 2^& 2/8 2& D XL 73JW0 &," -( +'(!) * 2N/u mj+ s810 &'8 2 27OMd-Q8 X Q 7 - N<0 &0 u+ u* 2u ul/0 2u'u^ & )1S! MOC XK.11. un<.u (1999) uj um ut0 2u.u 7OMd-Q8 2 -&&0 Ju &&0 ;! &'8 2 & S (2004) &'u8 -u)h u -u un<0 &u (1995) {& J f 7. &u0 7u. 10 S (2010). / &.1&< 2N/ < 9*7&0 7 Q m X,]d MOC 2! + &1+ -&&0 7Q] d 7 j & M M X01M ; -&&0 20! 1U< X}C 21O0 &0 7. /80 5L 0 -&& ;'* (1999) -)H J0 2^+'* ~ 2 2 Q X] L/ J0 2^+'* 7. 2C R&/ & 10 (\ -.+ NM<, = 0). <* 2D &0 7\/.10 C L 0 - J0 2^+'* -L. 7 7/ *7&0 X<<m J0 2^+'* 1&D8 2 P<,

4 1394 /0 9 <+ ( (]uc Vu&d u -&&u0 :u. &1+ -&&0 MOC X3JW0 Vu&d u -&&u0 7u. 1.0 (2012) p. 3C -&&0 2/ 2)3 ut0 2u.&9u!0 X Q 2 2D & ; ~ 1, 7 2)3 (]C [u.2 uh 0 u+ (< 2) ; & -# 2& ])/ ; - N<0 &0 2u u!.u1 u~ X]030 2m/C -0 ~ / ( /0 2 2\ X<<m g10 2)3 (]C V&d /* d 7 & S MOC b n1998 ^) Mm8 () g", (1998 N< b) () 0 <, 7J g", 10. u+u0 u* u -&&0 (2008 N< p*) () & & (2002 p - N<0 ~ X] / 2)3 (]C 1/O0 -&&0 * / u& u VuW0.u &'8,]d %& + J0 X,]d q10 2S8 qh 0 PuC 2um/C #$u 2u)3 (]uc u 1/O0 -&& S MOC X3JW0, un< {u8 n2005 un< 2 ud) -.u+ 7&0u 71&' 27Z]0 u& u&.(2013 N< &f n2010. h. n2010 N< pf n L10 #$ -.+ ; X01M u+u< X]0u ~ 7 \ )3 (]C 1/O0 -&&0 P0 2 uu&.&9u!u0 (u\ u3c 2um/C 2-J38 ~ V&d 3C -&&0 u 2, M<, 2 + K &0 P&< 1, 7 3C -&&0 (2006).1.0 r&3 J0 2^+'*. D 0). <* '^ ud 7u -u u+ ;'u* / ( /0 S8 7. &0 0 S XK 7u1&' u. 7uOMd-uQ8 u/8 uj 78" ;8 s& V&d %</ ih u n uu&) C 2-J38 2N/ 7 (C 73 XK u~ Vu&d u u3c -&&u0 7. &\D.(2010 &. n2009 N< -.u+ Xu0u1M ; u u 3C -&&0 20! &D XM<, 2-J38 -&&0 2)3 (]C -&&0 7S0.- &+ 2)3 (]C -&&0 7&0 g1&' &'8, J0 2S8 -L.. 7 \10 3C 2D u 2u u u3c -&&u0 u&u ],.(2013 h.) *0 7&0 Xu# 2 &u1.(2012 un< 2.) - & ' -.+ -C X01M D 2&H L10 X01M

5 43 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ 7W /C *& S! XK &* + MOC 2 K 7. W< * & *&. 7ƒ -&&0 () * + #$ 0. *X0. 9*7&0 l9h V&d -&&0 XZ () 2[ 2[ * + *& & VW0.(2014 N< p n ) * & ^& *&. +0 -&&0 &S 7 \10 () -.+ -&&0 <, 0) /1. &'8 V&d 2) 0) XZ () N< ' N< '0 n1998 0) 0 &'8. + -&&0. 7 \10 & () * + *& & VW0.( &&0 () * + #$ 2N+D!! & 7. &\D.*0 C #$ -K () ^1& gm 7 -&&0 X & 717. /8 /&&0 2;! 9*7&0 (1998) ; -8 OH N gj' VK ij0. 7 & & ; = & ^. 7 2h. P&< 0 -NJ * 7\/ 2. 0D 717. /8 s0 2& 0 /1. & n 73 VK 271&' f mj+ -NJ0 9*7&0 h) &' & 1U< VK 271&'. </ +0 7/. -&&0 h /1. XZ g1&' -&&0 X+ -OT0 wo 7. S R&/ -&) )S0 &! ^1& )1 7&0 0 /M^ S. /&&0 17. </ &7O1H (1988) N< 1&* 7.. rs J0 &0 7 &701S! D. C /OT0 d 7 H M^ 2-.+ /&&0 X0. ;^.- O0 7& &0 0 -OT0 gw 2 Z/ 0 * + (, 7. < (], (2002) )0D 0 Sj 7. - < XO#!.- () + 1! VMW0C -O. < * + (, Q gm 7 0 Z/ 0 L/ VK * + (, 30 1, 7 [ q X]030 h\ 7 () () Q 2 #$ * + (, XO# 2.- <. %f. 2-.+

6 1394 /0 9 <+ ( X01M 29*; /&&0 2h/ -< (2004) [ %</ Q1, )1S! R&/. C 0 -&&0 2*h<m - N<0 -.+ f 7. & ;^ 1&D8 0 p18 U< 1+ 7/+ X0. 2; 7 2 7H ^ & X01M 2; X0. X01M R&/ & S D g3jw0.0 y" &}8 ^0 & -.+ X01M 2; 2h. </ 11. -&&0 X01M R&/ 7 / 2 0 H \& </,.11. 1S q, X * + -&&0 #$ 2 (2012) N< M 30-2)3 (]C 30 N& 7.. L/ -&&0 & 2 271&' M<, &H P / 3C -&& w 0 ^& VOd n. )0D * + (, 30 ' * + & 2-2/ ( 3C -&&0) 2,t 2/ 271&' 1/O0 -&&0 0D - 7 R&/ h/0 gw * + (, / 27MQ8 0 1%&' #$ (2014) N< i H '.< -.+ M38 2 / 0 1%&' 7.. rs. D. C 0 27MQ8 1%&' d <ƒ 2 / 2*PN+ 7 \ \ & OC -3" -1+ 2D8 /) -1+ Z10 **h<m 1%&' XL 7. 0 S D R&/.*0-31Q 2 / 2*. -.+ R&/ L/0 X#$ /&&0 /&&0 X0. ;^ (. &) &S * + #$ (2015) N< f i 7 &) *& &0 /1. 2 VK D. C 0 [ () * S D. < 7M0 7 &) 0 S 7/8& 1U. +0 * 3C -&&0 2)3 (]C -&&0 h. - D -&& &&0 () * + #$ 7. &0 i 7 &) ;^ D R&/.- NM<, 7 2 &0 gomd-q8 2/8. K0 () * + q &.+0 *. +0 /&&0 X0. ;^. 7 \10

7 45 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ /&&0 X0. ;^ P0,&0 ~/+ &+ #$ (2015) N< f -&< 7. S R&/. C = l1/h 2 73 XK 271&'. </ P0,&0 2C &+ &0 /3" 1f 7. H 2h. </ 1U<..0. J! XC </ &'8 2#$ 1f & ],. + * 3C -&&0 2 < s&1q &-.+ 2 #$ & 1U<.&0 &'8 P0,&0.- 2 C *X0. 2) 0) &-.+ -&& J = (1389) N< 8 0 ) ) /8&9! 2-.+ () * + 2)3 (]C R&/ M. d L/ * + 30 R1! D! &.1/! #$ -.+ () * )3 (]C -&& D ^! {N,) * + (, f & 0 13& 130 L OT0 #$ (* + gm 7 7. () * + X,]d -8L+ gw (1393) N< - 27/8&. C 0 + 7OK0 () ;8 & -<C N OT0 gw () * + X,]d -8L S VK Z/ 0-8L & ^ R&/ & ],. H. H 2130 gw 0) -&&0 -&&0 17. #$ 27&0 7 (1394) 2C 20 X0. 7f* -&& D.! R&/.!0 () 1U<.9*0 L10 # -.+ () X01M 0 -+ /OT0 -&& D. () -&&0 &0 17. #D g& L10 20! -&&0 7 -O 7.," -(!"&./ gu"8 7u"8 & Z10 7 1U< - MQ g"8 2 73JW0 & 2u*u 2u.-u u+ %unl u,8 gu"8 4 7 ( g"8,8 g"8 6 7 u u3c -&&0 3C M<, 2-J38 K I+ /&&0 1%&' :- & ˆ+ 7! & 27"8 7Q] d 7.&* L/

8 1394 /0 9 <+ ( M<, 2-J38 K) /&&0 1%&' () * + (, :1 $0 +./. #$ (3C 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-1 g"8. #$ 2/ 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-2 g"8. #$ J u&h u+ u3c um<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-3 g"8. #$ XM<, + H 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-4 g"8. #$ XM<, + H &H 2/ 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-5 g"8. #$ J 271&' 2/ 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, :1-6 g"8. #$ XM<, + H &H J 271&' 2/ (u1&'8 u 3C -&&0) /&&0 1%&' () * + (, :2 $0 +./. #$ 271&' -&&0 V&d 1&'8 3C -&&0 () * + (, : 2-1 g"8. #$ 2/ 2u71&' -&&0 V&d 1&'8 3C -&&0 () * + (, :2-2 g"8. #$ J 2u71&' -&&0 V&d 1&'8 3C -&&0 () * + (, :2-3 g"8. #$ J 271&' 2/," -( 3 4 N& L/ \7O+ D! ˆd.- 2.! & L/ 0 2&{! ;.- (7/+9* X,]d V&d ) 2&{! 7! g1s! 2Z O0.!0 " 0 7 & C {! ^S! J0 2;'* 0 ; 7 ' 27"8 0D Z j/. ;

9 47 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ D U< H 0,]d 2% ) ) 5 6 +D H 0.&* 2Ds<H O/30 9$0 -& &. -& H 0 X,]d & ) ) /8&9! 2-.+ P0+! & 20D g30h 2-J38 K & PJ J <MC &) g < - + PQ POC 3 X8K & <\0 3C XM<, ^1< H 20D g30h h\ */* 7 7H J ; 7 & &+ 7 7H 20D g < 730H 2}, {\ (, :- + lj/ %</ 0! & J0 0$ Xv0 % 7< 29*7& (rj.*< C 1393 J = 2 6 }, 1385 POC -.+ (l 2~/0 7 w 0 X,]d 1U< + < 7ƒ 6 7 7) J0 2X Q.1+! & + lj/.+ 0 1L &! 7 )/10 D J0 = 2&9!7&0 -MC -&, 2 (i.1+ 7/+ 0 + ]030 glc VK = 2 %& d (.1+ ~ J d -.+ ( C J t w &K0 <, -M, L 29 J0 VW (, -M, & / (, J0 ~ PJ ]030 glc 7-31Q & 2-&K0 <, -&).+ 9 X,]d.&* lj/ 20D g < 1,," -(!"5 -&&u0 Iu+ /&&0 1%&' 2* 2! & :67!"5 um<, 2u-uJ38 uk Iu+ (2015) N< f 2! VW0 * (2006) 2 U& 21h ' -&&0 2 1U<.&* L/ 3C.+ L/ (2010) 2 uu& VuK VuW0 u! & :(DRO) :? $>!"89:/ ; <=.- + L/ M<, 2,t 2-J38 & (2006)

10 1394 /0 9 <+ ( u<, ;8 271&' <\0 2/ 271&' :! D!4E!"&" C.1.0 PNS X~MO 271&' (R&D) 73 VK 271&' (SC&A) 2 uc #$ -K 2H = -.+ 3C NM<, 71&' & 2N/ 7. & 8 6 N30 -)H ~ & %&, 2/ 271&' & 2N/ & %& 2 uu& 2u/ 2u7u1&' 2u, ywu & Z10 7.*0 XJ0 POC %u& u1u< (S t-1 /A t-1 ) POC 2& P. POC ;8 -O (2006).u. L/ (1/A t-1 ) POC 2& P. 1, -K /1. 2 /S0 O P0, u& (2010) * 7. &~/0. 78" 0 & (2016) N< {8 (1) :P0u+ ~/0 & < P<N -&. 7 (SG&A) 2/ 271&' (Q) u u. (2) n = 2 m+ 7. (MV) ; 3Od h/&^j uh (3) nu1.u0 2u*u &H 29*7&0 2 71&' / J -.+ P 7. 29*7&0 2 H 0 H 7. (INT) M 2u/ 2u7u1&' 2 ;8 #$ 7. ( S t /A t-1 ) ;8 ~ (4) 1.0 un< ud) u71&' *1Of /8 /8* Z (2010) *.1.0 / (DD) 2\0 ~/0 %& P03 X Q 7 ( S t ) ;8 ~ ~/0 (2003 &u+ 2u 7u. 0 u0 &0. POC 7 -O ;8 P D {N, (1) 0 = /8 ;8 2[. + (< 2) <\0 J 271&' :9! D!"&".2 2 X3JW0 &. +0 PQ ( Inventory) 2 H 0 X~ (COGS) S t- ) ;8 X~ (S t-1 /A t-1 ) ;8 :2~/0 J 271&' 2, yw & & (2016) N< {8.- + L/ 7/+9* ;8 X~ ( 1 /A t-1 -& (MV t ) ; (Q t ).. 78" (2010) * 2! 7 0 3C -&&0 7 w 0 2-J38 g\/ J X Q 7 I+ &.. P<N (< 2) ~ \& 2 J -&&0 22N/ J. + J0 = %& J 7f.1.0 2* 7/8 ;8 2[. +

11 49 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ -&&0 2N/ 0.{N3J +0 N+ XJ 7 2h. 2J -# -OT0 -)H J 271&' + XLLj 7f.- X[ mk0 ;8 -<C. +0 2,t!" (2) 0 = ud 2uO/, &u+ u0 &:GH!4* I JK ; 3 / 4!4.3.u1.u0 &u1+ (CFO) XuM<, u+ H &H L10 2,t &0 V&d um)! h)ou0 X uq 7u I+ & -. + ' (2006) 2 U& 7. W< u&h 'u 3C -&&0 7 w 0 2-J38 ^& 7. d & 7.- rq PC 2u 2u/ 2u7u1&'. T ,t XM<, + H u*0 -OT0 -)H XM<, + H &H + 2,t 7 \10 &'8 u+ u uh u&h + 2,t 7 \10 &'8 2 J g8" 7. J u 3C -&&0 7 w 0 2-J38 0< 7. &\D.*0 L10 -)H XM<, + H &H 21O0 30 & M)! h)o0 #$ H &H.+< [ 3C -&&0 2-J K0 M<, 2-J38 {u8. (u\ ([ w/ & I+ & 7 w 0 R&/ L (^1 7 &1. 78" 3 XM<, + H &H 2, yw & 2 (2016) N< :1/8& - & 0 7 (2006) 2 U& 0 7 (Q MV) 2~/0 #$" (3) 0 = u. 27 * Q - ; 21O0 (3) (2) (1) * 20 (DRO) u3c um<, 2-J38 K. +0 D + S0 15 PC P0+ & 2D &0 (3) (2) (1) 20 7/ ~/0 3C &0 XL/J70 X Q 7 :&D0-7 1&D8 & 7J MQ I * D =+ 1! uj 2u7u1&' 2u,t yw (Residual_DISX) 2/ 271&' 2,t yw

12 1394 /0 9 <+ ( XuuM<, uu+ uu uuh uu&h 2uu,uut ywuu (Residual_PROD) 2u/ 271&' 2,t yw I+ R&/ L / 2.(Residual_CFO) &u0 -u0], +0 l" 1 L10 XM<, + H &H 2,t yw u9*0 2 D 7. 2#$ J 271&' 2, t yw I+ 7S0 D.+ wo Š</0 2u! (2016) N< {8 ::? $>!"89:/ ; <= *% LE 7. Residual_ 1 30 :P0+ s0h (I+) 30 3 (2010) &. X3JW0 2u,t yw (Residual_DISX) 2/ 271&' 2,t yw I+ 2 <\0 u<\0 7u. Residual_ 2 30 (Residual_CFO) XM<, + H &H uj 2u7u1&' 2,t yw (Residual_DISX) 2/ 271&' 2,t yw 78u" 7u. u1&<u0 y&s (2010) &... \& (Residual_PROD) 5 u XuM<, u+ u uh &H 2,t. -< 7 %0 X Q 7 J.u* u u3c -&&u0 r,u}0 gok0 qh 0 0 I+ & q..1.0 Iu+ 3 qu. 7u Residual_ 3 30 (2016) N< { MQ (1995 un< uu&) ' uh u+ P&u3 0 VW0 (2014) N< {8 :. D -31Q 2 & (4) 3W0 gj : (4) 0 = 1 +! < + + uh u&h XL/J )3 (]C P. =1 S Accruals (4) gj30 X')\ X[D+0 0 IJPPE.&D0-7 IJ XM<, + (DA) 2u/ 2)3 (]C gok0 (5) /8& 2l X~ AR u0d - 7 (4) 0 & (5) 0 H 0 q&".0 S S0 2.-

13 51 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ >?67@A>BC97D 66789:? = 66789: E 1 +! < + F (5) 0 2u)3 (]uc (2009) un< u u! VuW0 (2016) un< {8 u0 VuW0 7/+9* 7 2/ 2)3 (]C VMW0 C <\0 X Q 7 2/ :. 2* (6) = >?67@A>BC97D 66789:? (6) 0 + >?67@A>BC97D 66789:? + >?67@A>BC97D 66789:? VOd (DRO) 3C M<, 2-J38 K 2 &) I+ + < 7 :&* \& (7) 0 (7) 0!" HIJ =K!@?>L89: HIJ K+K!@?>L89: HIJ K +K!@?>L89: HIJ K 20 2<C VMW0 C 21O0 DA DRO 2 + (\ 22* uu0 u&.u+0 (AEM) 2)3 (]C -&&0 (REM) 3C -&&0 & u& 7 (2016) N< {8 7\/.N zkj -&&0 &0 ='^ (REM) u 3C -&&0 1, 7 Š</0 DRO 2I+ &O 7. 1/8& - 7/N -&&u0 ut Pu0, ud </ &. 29*( (AEM) 2)3 (]C -&&0 & 2u-uJ38 uk [/ g"8 &1.1+ 7/8*. 7 #$ () * + (, 0 ' - 3C -&& C M<,.&9! 20 h/0 L/ 0 X/ 2 2Z O0 :(REM) :? 8 & +0 -&&0 30 1, C 2-J38 2,t yw & 2/8 2& - N<0 I+ & -&&0 2'^. zkj * PNS0 & P /+ 2<, 22N/ t 2^& X Q & VK X Q 7 3C -&&0 &1+ (2010)

14 1394 /0 9 <+ ( /0 d 7 7. S 2710 VK (2006) 2 U& (2010) * 7. & (0<ROA<0.01) LQ + ;'* =1&'8 7. 3C 2-J38 2N/, (0< ROA<0.01) POC , -K & D Z10 &.. L/ +0 * X3JW0 VOd.. 29*( &'8 7. -&&0 7 1Z0 0 <, ;8 271&' 73 VK 271&' &! yw 2-.+ (2010) 2,t J 271&' 2[ yw 2-.+ (%\1! &&!) 2,t 2 {8. +0 &1+ 3C -&& , 7 (%\1! &[) X Q 7 1Z gm.. 2! N& & (2016) N< 2,t yw 2%\1! 2/ 271&' 2,t yw 2%\1! 2 7*H (REM_1_SUSPECT) ( 7 2\0 ~/0 %& D. 217Od J 271&' 0-2/ 271&' C -&&0 XS \0 ~/0 %& 1U<. &1+ (4 1 2%\1!) XS0 ^& 2 LQ -&& XS0 2 %& 0 (REM_2_SUSPECT) ( 7 ^& 7S0 I+ %& & ],.. \& - J 271&' C 2 %& 0 (REM_3_SUSPECT) ( 7 3C -&& K0 -&&0 2 h 2/ 271&' + 3C -&&0 2 h 7. S0.. & J 271&' + 3C &7 5 hu\ u %u& 7u ()u 7u -u<c 1. 1, 7 :H 4: uoc u+ [u D )0D * + (, -O 7. 0). +0 L X]030 hu\ u VMW0 C h -O &. 2& -<C ~ 7M030 Nf. h\ u u 2 ^0 X Q 7 30 &.&D = %& X]030 %u& & * + -O 7U1f T0 1, OK0 7u 7uH u.- %3 D VMW0 C + (\ X]030 h\ &'8 Q u * + (, h) D + [ ILLIQ -O h) %& 7U1f 8 0.(1387 &0 8K&) VV W = ] XYZ[ \ XYZ[ ] cd \ ] _`\a _ ] b \a (8) 0

15 53 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ :D 7. W W 7M030 t 0 i h) 7. - & 3 9D? t 0 d J& h\ c (, 1&! ^1& 7. <) 7. - & [ gj30 0 )L0 /.- + 7M030 h. h\ 7 1. <) 1f () -<C. &[ ILLIQ & * + h1. 0 h j * ( )L0 &.1.0 7\ &[ -<C ~ 7H 0 &[ X~ X]030 h. h\ 7 1. P. I+ * 7. -L* 0. 1&! * + 2 1f 7.. [/ 1f 0 + 9%!"5 2-J38) /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ 2H 2! & :*0 L/ P& ˆ+ 7 J/1. 2~/0 ( 3C -&&0 2, t 3C u3 2u (1989) uj! uj u0 u! u& :(FCF) ;H!"GM : X Q L/ 2\ D 2&H FCF ef = INC ef TAX ef INTEXP ef PSDIV ef CSDIV ef / TA ef (9) 0 :D 7. -.u+ ])/ POC M<, :INC it nt i -.+ D 2&H :FCF it u) gu1&' :INTEXP it nt u i -.u+ u/! XuJ0 Pu. :TAX it nt i nt u i -.u+ u/! /<0 0) :PSDIV it nt i -.+ 1/! 2u/8 ; Pu. :TA it_1 nt u i -.u+ /! 2, 0) :CSDIV it.t i -.+ 2& n 2/ 2& 3Od h/&^j :() SIZE it n() OQ 5 2/8 ; 7 ; -O :(29*7&0 2-Q8) MBV it n& P. P. -O :(J0 () LEV it u ;u8 u hu POC ;8 2H ;8 XL :(;8 +) SG it npoc

16 1394 /0 9 <+ ( h)u 7u d 7. - &&'0 7, <\0 Z10 :(7[ () ) Ret it-1 uz h)u -<C &D 7 -O & h) -<C J 7 -O 0 7. *0 VM3 :* 7OK0 h) P. + 7/8* R = EP f 1 + α + β P f 1 + C l + DPS] / P f + C l i -.u+ h)u -u<c :P it-1 nt = i -.u+ h) -<C :P it n() 7[ :R it 7&0 &'8 Q :β nxojw0 2 =D PK0 7&0 &'8 Q :α nt-1 = u :DPS n(ju&1000 Š[ u<30) () & &9! MO0 :C n<) 7/ PK0.h) 2 N0 4H 2/0! ^ 7. 0 S! 2~/0 7 w 0 LQ 0D 1 H 7 w 0 X,]d P0+ Š<, /0! &.-'\0 X Q 7 ~/0 2 LQ 7 w 0 X,]d 1U< 71S 71<. 70 ^0 Z 2'.0 2I+ ^ S 1 H 27/8&.- 30 K Z *1.! 2I+ ~/0 & 7 w 0 2 /S 0 S /365 () * + (, q 7 * + (, 0 & &h. 1U<.7/8& '.< w & 2~/0 ^0 - S0 PC H & 7. W<.+0 7/244 0/223 &H J 271&' 2/ 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K 0/301 0/475 0/062 q 7 ^0 d S XM<, + H X8K 7. 0 S, &.7/+ K 3C 2-J38 2&H + ( gh J 271&' + -j gh 3C 2-J38 3 & ^0 g&0.- 2/ 271&' + -&) XM<, + H S 2/ 2)3 (]C ~/0 ^0 3C M<, 2-J38 K I+ (0/475) J 271&' + 3C M<, 2-J38 K 2N/ (0/311) 2/ 2)3 (]C F u0d u! MuQ gu"8 20 <j 2 q10 2 ^J 3 2.-u %5 h. 2W 2 <J F =0D 7. S R&/ + L/ < <J.u+ 7/8* Z P! 2 2 ^J MQ g"8 * 20 (< 2 &.u. u&$ 0 <j 2 -# 2# ; ' < 0D PQ R&/ 8d

17 55 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ (u< 7. S R&/.+ L/ 2 0D! 2~/0 0 2 X]u<H {u& u< u* u0 <j 2 ([ &+.1/ 0 ~/0 PuQ R&u/.u.u0 * 0 O/, < X Q W u<j F u0d PuOC.1/u u< u{u& 7. S {& < 0D 0D (<.-8&9! (\ Wh 0D {& < 0D 1U< < 2u~/0 u uwh PNS0 &1 10 h. ~/0 g< 2 VIF =0D 0 %u& ( MuQ g"8 7/ ~/0 7. & PJ 7 1U<.-+ H! P/0.&* L/ %/\J * ( g"8 20 0D 2-2\0 ~/0 :1 #&' #$%!"! 7/244 0/075 0/675 0/394 0/397 18/97 0/885 15/89 0/986 0/972 0/996 0/223 0/044 0/442 0/257 0/250 11/00 0/040 0/046-0/947-0/838-0/887 0/738 0/023 0/274 0/174 0/166 1/354 0/166 1/399 0/279 0/198 0/355 2/262 0/062 0/256 0/176 0/234 13/61 0/570 1/698 0/133 0/155 0/086 1/365 0/062 0/475 0/301 0/311 13/70 0/546 2/003 0/144 0/174 0/102 ILLIQ DRO_DISX DRO_PROD DRO_CFO DA SIZE LEV MBV SG FCF RET," -(!"&./ G;H %& 2! g"8 0D R&/ - S0 PC 2 H 7. W<.- +. (DRO) 3C M<, 2-J38 K 2'\0 230

18 1394 /0 9 <+ ( DRO_CFO 3-1,8 g"8 t ' -0/515-0/093 **4/417 0/345 **5/811-0/374 1/797 **2/619 *-1/971 **3/496 0/895 0/005 0/161 0/007-0/048 0/188 **-3/546-1/342 0/226 1/963 15/436 0/000! 0! / ,*) :2 DRO_PROD 2-1,8 g"8 t ' **2/952-1/185 **5/935 1/032 **4/329 **-3/216 1/405 **2/972 **3/485 1/807 0/709-0/087 0/281 0/017 0/188 0/217-0/985-0/831 0/190 1/879 17/946 0/000 DRO_DISX 1-1,8 g"8 t ' 0/804 0/187 **5/039 0/507 **3/025 **-2/668 **3/592 *2/257 **8/831-0/828 0/287 0/042 0/415 0/008 0/273-0/057 **-2/610-1/274 0/234 1/959 23/379 0/000 %5 %1 2W yw 2130 q 7 * ** C ILLIQ DA SIZE LEV MBV SG FCF RET + P&3 3 q&" F = 0D F =0D </ #$ 3C M<, 2-J38 K () * + (, 7. 0 S R&/ &.- %5 h yw & OT0 q&". 3C M<, 2-J38 2 K &! * + &-.+ X~ Q 22/ /4 q S 0D 20 +P&3 3 O PC J/1. P/0 2~/0 3C M<, 2-J38 K 7/ ~/ /963 1/879 1/959 q 7 0D 20 =0D.- X]<H J& ^/O< & ^/O< PNS <j 0 S 7. - D ^ D </ yw 0 F =0D 0 & '8. H W.. N D P. 0D 0 ~/01f * 20 3C M<, 2-J38 O. 2I+ L/ 3 H g"8 0D 2-J38 K () * + (, 7. S R&/ -8&9! (\ ' (DRO) %5 h yw & OT0 #$ 3C M<, M<, 2-J38 2 K &! * + & &.-. 3C

19 57 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ DRO_3 6-1,8 g"8 t **2/995 **4/523 *2/110 **-2/716 0/891 **4/498 **3/461 **7/319 **-2/836 0/212 1/910 21/776 0/000 ' 1/293 0/846 0/372-0/079 0/192 0/028 0/201 0/946-2/574! 0! / ,*) :3 DRO_2 5-1,8 g"8 t **3/048 **3/865 1/538 **-3/239 1/568 **4/328 **3/692 **7/466 **-2/747 0/202 1/884 20/606 0/000 ' 1/311 0/720 0/270-0/094 0/336 0/027 0/214 0/960-2/483 DRO_1 4-1,8 g"8 t **2/841 **5/662 **9/313-1/437 0/731 **3/953 **7/151 **3/362-0/228 0/320 2/022 33/339 0/000 %5 %1 2W yw 2130 q 7 ' 0/253 0/218 0/338-0/009 0/032 0/005 0/086-0/089-0/043 * ** C ILLIQ DA SIZE LEV MBV SG FCF RET + P&3 3 q&" F = 0D F =0D </ 21/2 20/2 32 q S 0D 20 +P&3 3 q&" P/0 2~/0 3C M<, 2-J38 K 7/ ~/0 X~ Q 1/884 2/022 q 7 0D 20 =0D.- O PC J/1. ^/O< & ^/O< PNS <j 0 S /910 D </ yw 0F =0D 0 & '8. H W X]<H J& P. 0D 0 ~/0 1f * D ^.. N D %u& 2! ( g"8 0D R&/ - S0 PC 4 H 7. W< (u, 7u. uu0 us 7/8&.- + D =1&'8 -&&0 2'\ u& OT0 #$ 1&'8 3C -&& () * + 2[u * u+ (, &-.+ sc.- %5 h yw.d0 2 3C -&&0 7 2& </ ()

20 1394 /0 9 <+ ( REM_Suspect 3 3-2,8 g"8 5!4 **12/673 **16/331 *5/241 0/454 *6/429 0/043 1/368 1/552 ' -8/468 6/478 1/403 0/098 3/903-0/007 0/399-1/495 *5/647 9/093 0/465 0/267 59/210 0/000 4/804 0/ /478 30! /-. +,*) :4 REM_Suspect 2 2-2,8 g"8 5!4 **7/219 **14/216 *4/266 0/075 2/656 0/178 0/563 1/057 ' -4/617 4/941 1/113-0/031 1/960 0/011 0/222-0/959 **6/875 8/591 0/338 0/211 45/353 0/000 10/340 0/ /456 REM_Suspect 1 1-2,8 g"8 5!4 **11/061 **9/533 *3/969 *3/911 1/360 *4/052 2/146 0/769 ' -6/507 3/903 1/088 0/253 1/233-0/083 0/423-0/728 0/819 2/755 0/308 0/206 43/959 0/000 4/291 0/ /924 %5 %1 2W yw 2130 q 7 * ** C ILLIQ DA SIZE LEV MBV SG FCF RET NM^ 3 q&" P1 {.. 3 q&" 2. =0D yw S<J < =0D 2130 yw 0 &<- -O.- 0 P. 130 ^ 0D & 7 w yw 2. =0D '0 5uOW =u1 us 'u Q 5 2W '0 S<J < =0D 2130 yw 7&0 u3 q&u" 2uI+ 0.- (0 ; & N) 3C XS0 0 q10 u1u! XuC ^u 4 uh VW0 0D 0 20 P1 {.. NM^.- 0 q10 "'(!&O /8&9! %&' () * + (, #$! & u)0d u30 * u+ (u, 2u* 2.0 C 0 ) ) -&&0 3C M<, 2-J38 0 /&&0 1%&' '0 <j 2 (2002) uk (2016) un< {u8 Xu)ΠVuW0.-u u+ L/u u 3C 2u-uJ38 u+ -u N<0 - -&& C M<, 2-J38

21 59 /&&0 1%&' () * + (, #$ 2u-uJ38 uk u u3c -&&u0 u! & & , 2u7u1&' &! yw 2-.+ (2010) * X3JW0 VOd.&* '\0 3C M<, (%u\1! &u&u!) 2u, ut 2 0 u<, ;u8 2u7u1&' 73u VK u , 7 (%\1! &[) 2,t J 271&' 2[ yw /8* Z 3C -&&0 L/ 3C M<, 2-J38 K * +(, 7. 0 S R&/ & OT0 #$ O. 2I+ 1U< '\0 2I+.&0 &'8 3C M<, 2-J38 K </ * + %& &'8 2)3 (]C 2N/ 7 &* -[ * + (, S 7/8&.+0 3C -&&0 3C M<, 2-J38 K 1U< 2/ n(2009) '10 n(2002) 0 0 n(1998) ; n(1993) 27/8& * R&/ -.+ () * + %& 7. 0 S D.+0 (2013) N< 2N/ X<<m j 7 2 P&< &0 -[.1 &'8 mj+ s810 7uH u )1S! J0 *PMK 7&'\ 9*7&0 7! & R&/ -ul. 7u D u Ou0 L10 20! /&&0 17. * + (, -OT0 # 7 zukj 22*h<m J</ 2N/ 1+ 7/+ 7H + ;'*.1. 29*7&0 2 L! * + (, %& 7M & 1&< P. () * + X,]d -8L+.(1393).(.6 2 M,. M/S./<3.ˆ (3) 3 2 \ 2! * + 2)3 (]C -&&0.(1389)..ˆ 8.!". 80 :(3) 2 2 2! 7M\0. ) ) /8&9! 2-.+ () &&0 -&&0 17. #$ 27&0.(1394). 2C.i :(2) () 0 * + (, %& * + P0,.(1387).i &0.( 8K& :(53) ) ) 5 6 ()

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