Olufunke Jones Country Head, Power and Energy Ecobank Nigeria

Transcription

1 Olufunke Jones Country Head, Power and Energy Ecobank Nigeria

2 Our Major Focus West Africa Energy Outlook Emerging Scenarios Nigeria: A Case Study Power for all: Next Steps for the Sub-Region

3 Power Infrastructure Development: The Next Right Steps in Execution Introduction West African macroeconomic outlook Dealing with the intangibles Next steps- stakeholder analysis Bridging the Funding gaps- sustainable options Conclusion

4 West African Macroeconomic Outlook The multiplier effect of a stable power supply across the West African region is very high as it will encourage. GDP: Acceleration of Gross Domestic Product will enhanced across the West African region with improved Industrialization IMPORTS: the growth of small scale business and attract more large firms that can produce goods that will meet international supply. EXPORTS: Improvement of import substitutes that will help switch demand to local domestic substitutes and expand export to increase the foreign exchange earnings. INFLATION RATE: Stabilization of a single Inflation rate across West African

5 Sub-Saharan Energy Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa is home to major energy producers It is projected that by 2040, renewables will provide more that 40% of power generation in the region Increasing population growth will still challenge meeting energy requirements Actions to unlock greater levels of engagement and investment in the region must be driven at national and regional levels Proper and better regulatory and financial framework must be put in place The role of the international community in Energy Production for the sub-region must be developmental

6 PPP INVESTMENT ON A COMPARATIVE BASIS S/N Country PPP Law Regulator Or Regulation or PPP Unit or Policy Total PPP Investment since 1990 Total PPP Investment Per Capita Sources: 1. World Bank PPP Knowledge Lab 2. World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings 3. World Bank Country Population Data Population 1. S. Africa YES - (1999) YES (All 4) $12 billion $ million 2. Nigeria YES - (2005) YES (3) $9.4 billion $ million 3. Ghana NO YES (2) $2.8 billion $ million 4. Uganda YES (2015) YES (1) $2.47 billion $ million 5. Congo YES NO $2.40 billion $ million 6. Kenya YES (2013) YES (3) $2.0 billion $ million 7. Rwanda NO YES (1) $260 million $ million 8 Angola YES (2011) NO $227 million $ million

7 Emerging the Sub- Regional Level Increased efforts at harmonizing regulatory frameworks at sub-regional levels Gas Price stability More cross border interactions for example West-Africa Gas pipeline initiative

8 Nigeria: A Case Study The market development not yet competitive amongst generators via energy trading between generators and distributors. Energy trading is presently being managed by a special purpose entity (NBET) until the market overcomes the teething challenges and become fully competitive. The emerging sector is currently grappling with this stage. Focus is still on short to medium term phase of the market. Market yet to evolve to be wholly competitive, characterized by robust economic pricing of electricity that would allow for full recovery of supply electricity.

9 Nigeria: A Case Study (Dealing with the Intangibles) Perception issues Consumer expectations issues Consumer behaviour issues Financial Institutions issues. Regulators/Stakeholders issues Contract Sanctity issues Knowledge Gap issues

10 Next Steps- Stakeholder Analysis THE STRONGEST BUT IGNORED STAKEHOLDER THE MEDIA Strategize engagements with the media DISTRIBUTION ASSETS OWNERS Rethinking and restructuring planned ROE/ROI period will help focus on the needful for now. TCN/SO/TSP/MO privatization and mini-grid options/ considerations. NIPP transmission capacity synergy GAS COMPANIES IOC s needs to quickly decide what to do with all the gas acreages lying fallow REGULATORS CBN-Develop and implement policies that will improve funding efficiency and incentivize investors and Commercial Banks. PENCOM Rethink and develop framework that utilizes Pension fund for Infrastructure development. NERC Take an assertive stance on tariff structure

11 Bridging the funding Gaps- Sustainable options Intervention Funds by development Banks (AFDB BOI, CBN DFD) Local currency equity fund options(sinking Funds). Pension Fund Utilization Export Credit Agencies (ECA Guarantees support) Private Public Partnership Investment (PPP) Foreign Direct Investment (Equity & Debts) Capital Market options Sustainable Infrastructure development savings scheme Improved Taxation for increased Capex Planning/ Budgeting Sovereign Bonds and Guarantees options.

12 Moving the Sub-Region to the next Phase General Governance reforms and support can accelerate energy growth in the sub region by up to 30% and raise per-capita incomes if the following is implemented: Additional $500 billion investment in the power sector, reducing power outages by half and raising accessibility to power in the urban areas Increased Regional Co-operation and integration leading to new large scale generation and transmission projects Better management of resources and revenues Better understanding of infrastructure funding by Financial Institutions

13 Conclusion When we all as a people come to the realization that the responsibility of building the Sub-Region is strongly connected to the growth/development of the power sector, then we will be ready to grow the region for a better tomorrow and as a people reposition West-Africa and indeed Africa placing her where she should truly be