Economic Outlook for Infrastructure Projects: Africa Perspective Mahendra Dedasaniya: Associate Director - Deloitte 7 November 2017

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1 Economic Outlook for Infrastructure Projects: Africa Perspective Mahendra Dedasaniya: Associate Director - Deloitte 7 November 2017

2 Global overview of infrastructure investment in emerging markets Global Infrastructure Investment Infrastructure Market Outlook Global infrastructure spend ~ US $9.6 trillion per year i.e 14% of GDP From 2016 through 2030, the world needs to invest about 3.8% of GDP, or an average of US $3.3 trillion a year, in economic infrastructure just to support expected rates of growth Infrastructure spending in Africa as a percentage of total emerging market spend is expected to rise from 2.1% in to 3.4% in 2016 to 2030 The average ROI on infrastructure projects is 19-22% across Africa, SA is the 25.1% A dollar of infrastructure investment can raise GDP by 20 cents in the long run by boosting productivity Services have become by far the fastgrowing market and largest part of the world economy which is estimated to 70 percent of global GDP For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 2

3 Growth trends & outlook As the second-fastest growth region globally, Africa remains an attractive destination that cannot be ignored by business Over the next 5 years, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to rebound to the secondfastest growing region. SSA saw a short-term and temporary dip in economic growth on account of commodity price adjustments and external headwinds but is expected to approach 4% by 2022 (only rivalled by emerging and developing Asia at 6.3%) Real GDP growth outlook by region (%), f Emerging and developing Asia SSA is set to be the second-fastest growing region in the world by 2022, after Developing Asia, averaging 3.5% over GDP growth (%) Sub-Saharan Africa 11 African economies will be amongst the world s 20 fastest-growing economies between 2017 and f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f Advanced economies Commonwealth of Independent States Emerging and developing Asia Emerging and developing Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Sub-Saharan Africa 10 SSA economies will record average GDP growth in excess of 6% between 2017 and Source: IMF, October For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 3

4 Capital inflows, top investors & investment by region (based on announcements) FDI inflows by capital investment in 2016 largely focused on Egypt, Algeria, South Africa and Ethiopia and mostly investors from Asia and the Middle East. 80% of global FDI inflows into Developing Asia (30%), Europe (28%), North America (22%) where as Africa receives 5-6%. In terms of industry split, Services received 51%, manufacturing 27% and primary 22% of FDI inflows. Country FDI by Capital Investment, 2016 US$bn % change from 2015 FDI into Africa by project number, 2016 % Africa market share Egypt % 43% Algeria % 8% South Africa % 8% Ethiopia % 7% Asia-Pacific Middle East Western Europe Africa North America Emerging Europe Latin America & Caribbean Top Investors in Africa by Capex (US$bn), Investment by region, South Africa Morocco Egypt Nigeria North Africa: Capex (US$54.3bn), Projects (184) projects US$92.3bn Kenya Côte d Ivoire Ghana Tanzania Algeria Ethiopia Tunisia West Africa: Capex (US$9bn), Projects (135) Central Africa: Capex (US$1.5bn), Projects (28) East Africa: Capex (US$19.4bn), Projects (143) Source: fdi Intelligence, 2016 Other Southern Africa: Capex (US$7.9bn), Projects (112) For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 4

5 Infrastructure Investment Challenges: Global vs Africa Some challenges are unique to Africa and require tailored solutions as the extent and complexity of these challenges differ in each country Global Challenges African Challenges Policy Uncertainty Retrospective legislative and regulatory changes on the rise Investment Returns Declining ROI expectation due to expansionary monetary policy response to the global financial crisis Policy Uncertainty Frequent changes of government policies due to domestic pressures Investment Returns Increasing ROI expectations due to higher risk premium Macroeconomic Conditions Slow recovery from the financial crisis and more inward focus on investment, except China which has only slowed its pace of global expansions Infrastructure Investment Challenges Macroeconomic Conditions Low growth levels, most countries growing at single digit levels, currency volatility, high inflation and rising unemployment levels Technical Skills Shortages Emergence of conservative antiimmigration governments discouraging talent migration Government Finances Deteriorating government finances, reduce spending forcing them to have an alternate source of infrastructure funding. Technical Skills Shortages Foreign-led investments use imported labour, with limited or no skills transfer Government Finances Low growth and currency volatility have constrained Inflow in USD and outflow in local currency Source: UBS, For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 5

6 African economies are underinvesting in infrastructure compared to Asian economies Investment in infrastructure and capital projects is an important aspect for enabling GDP growth, more diversified economic and private sector activity, and providing the platform for such growth to be sustainable and inclusive, Public-Private Partnerships is the key to reduce the infrastructure investment gap 50 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) China Indonesia Nigeria India South Africa Kenya Nigeria South Africa Kenya China India Indonesia Source: World Bank, For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 6

7 Opportunities across Africa : Committed Investment 42 projects valued at US$76bn Key project sectors: Transport (43%); Energy and Power (10%); Real Estate (26%) 4.4% 43 projects valued at US$27.4bn Key project sectors: Transport (47%); Energy and Power (26%); Real Estate (11%) 3.0% 6.6% 92 projects valued at US$119.8bn Key project sectors: Transport (18%); Energy and Power (34%); Real Estate (22%) 3.2% 2.2% 85 projects valued at valued at US$93.4bn Key project sectors: Transport (25%); Energy and Power (20%); Real Estate (31%) 24 projects valued at US$7bn Key project sectors: Transport (29%); Energy and Power (42%); Real Estate (8%); Mining (8%) Source: Deloitte Africa Construction Trends Report For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 7

8 African Construction in Focus: Who owns, funds, builds? Funding and ownership is defined as the country where the financier or owner of the project is domiciled. Source: Deloitte analysis, Nov For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 8

9 Opportunities for Growth in the Service Economy Global service imports is valued at R19.8 trillion with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% The sub-saharan Africa compound annual growth rate is higher at 7.1% Services are playing an increasingly important role in African economies: the services sector s share of GDP has increased to over 60% in recent years South Africa is ranked 5 th, with a Services Sector GDP contribution of just above 60% South Africa is exporting only 2% of its services into sub-saharan Africa SA has potential to increase its export share to 15% for services into Africa This will add an additional R245 billion to GDP and 460k jobs The largest consumer of imported services are Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique and Ghana For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 9

10 South Africa s Competitive Advantage (to be continued ) SA is highly Labour Market Efficiency, Financial competitive on Institutions & Technology Competitiveness Financial Institutions, Auditing & Reporting Business sophistication Standards, Taxation 33 on incentive to work, Reliance on professional management and it s ranked overall Effect of taxation on incentive to work 30 Intil internet bandwidth, kb/s per user 19 Soundness of banks 8 Availability of financial services 6 Strength of auditing and reporting standards 1 Overall ranking out of 140 countries USA UK Russia India China Brazil South Africa Geographic, Language & Overheads (Cheap office rental ranking) Competitiveness SA is gateway to Africa, offers cheapest office space, is well positioned to service the West-East, & uses English as the business language USA English UTC-05:00 Ranked 62 UK English UTC+00:00 Ranked 67 Brazil Portuguese UTC-03:00 Ranked 61 Russia Russian UTC+03:00 Ranked 65 South Africa English UTC+02:00 Ranked 1 India English UTC+05:30 Ranked 60 China Mandarin UTC+08:00 Ranked 64 SA s ease of doing business is better than Brazil & India Ease of Doing Business Competitiveness USA South Africa 7 73 Brazil % 30% 25% 20% 15% 28% Tax Structures Competitiveness 28% 15% 16% 15% 20% 14% SA s corporate tax is in line the with median & other taxes are below median 16% % UK China 5% Russia India Sources: 1. Global Competitiveness Report , WEF; Doing Business 2016, Measuring Regulatory Quality and Efficiency; Global Financial Stability Report, IMF 2. Cushman & Wakefield, Office Space across the World; IBFD, 2016, Portal to Cross Border Tax Expertise For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 10 0% Corporate tax Tax on Dividends Tax on Interest VAT/GST South Africa Brazil China India Russia UK USA Median

11 South Africa s Competitive Advantage Currency, Jan Jan 2017 ($) Competitiveness Education & Skills Competitiveness (excluding China) SA offers a competitive currency/us$ compared to Brazil and China, and its currency is more stable to the Russian Ruble 50% 14 S. Africa (USD/ZAR) 70% 4 Brazil (USD/BRL) Currency at Jan 17 7 China (USD/CNY) 67 8% 9% India (USD/INR) 76 Russia (USD/RUB) 125% % UK (USD/GBP) 24 Months % Change (Jan 14 to Jan 17) 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Millions % SA has a better % of tertiary educated workforce than India and Brazil, and SA also come very close to USA 9.80% 13% 56% 39% South Africa India Brazil Russia UK USA 2013 Labour force 2013 Tertiary (%) 22% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Monthly Wages, (National currency) Productivity Labour Output per Worker, (GDP $ in PPP) SA s wages has only increased 42% over a 5year view, compared to China s 60%, India s 59% and Russia s 61% SA Brazil China India Russia UK USA Median Thousands With relatively lower salary increase, SA s productivity is still in line with the median and still 46% higher than India, China & Brazil SA Brazil China India Russia UK USA Median Sources: Oanda.com, February 2016; ilo.org, kilm15 & kilm16 ; oecd.org For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 11

12 A Head for Business and a Heart for Africa With the right approach and partnerships, SA engineering companies are well positioned to exploit the abundant opportunities on the continent Strategic Partnerships Creating competitive edge through strategic partnership with organisations that understand and have vast market experience are critical Risk Appetite The continent has its inherent risks, which businesses need to understand and mitigate, but the returns are potentially higher Agility The traditional business model and approach may not always succeed, adaptability is required Deep Understanding of Africa Africa is not homogenous, thus a deep understanding of each country as a unique environment is vital to developing a compelling value proposition For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 12

13 Africa is ripe and ready for business to succeed and so the foundation is laid for the services industry to sprout and flourish For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 13

14 Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as Deloitte Global ) does not provide services to clients. Please see for a more detailed description of DTTL and its member firms. This communication is for internal distribution and use only among personnel of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, and their related entities (collectively, the Deloitte network ). None of the Deloitte network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this communication For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

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