Market Outlook Opportunities & Challenges. Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited
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- Noel Hensley
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1 Market Outlook Opportunities & Challenges
2 Agenda Indian Markets 2013: Where we got lost : Winds of change- The way ahead India Inc.: On the path to recovery Budget view Valuations and Expectations Market Outlook 2
3 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 Policy inertia impacted investments & growth GDP Growth slowed down amid external and internal factors India Quarterly GDP Growth, %yoy Persistent high inflation resulted in high rates, input costs 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% %yoy CPI Food Inflation CPI 9.7% 8.6% 20% 15% 10% Industrial Production flat for the last ~2.5 years now 5% 0% -5% -10% Mar- 07 Mar- 08 Mar- 09 Mar- 10 Mar- 11 YoY% YoY% 3MMA Mar- 12 Mar- 13 Mar- 14 Increasing interest rates have hit margins, investments 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Reverse Repo Rate 91-Day T-Bill Yield Repo Rate Source: Morgan Stanley Research 3
4 India 2015 & beyond : The way ahead 4
5 Pillar of future growth Key drivers: 1. Politics stable, strong Government, after 30 years 2. Investment cycle: policy push + cyclical upswing 3. Inflation and interest rates to cool down 4. Current Account and Currency have stabilized 5. Budget View 5
6 1: Politics: Stable, Strong after 30 years Why is a stable Government so important? Most number of seats won by any party Majority needed months Average time taken for Environment Clearance 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 20 (% YoY real GDP) Gujarat All-India (5) (10) Source: CLSA, BSLAMC Gujarat average GSDP growth FY03-FY12: 10.3% India average GDP growth FY03-FY12: 7.9% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% GDP Growth : Pvt. + Public Consumption, Net Exports and others GDP Growth attributed to GFCF change FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 E 6
7 Politics: Stable, Strong after 30 years Priorities of the new regime 1. Reduce Inflation - Release food stock, Restructure APMC laws 2. Improve Governance, decision-making 3. Job creation by stimulating manufacturing investments - liberalize FDI limits and law, create industrial clusters 4. Reforms in mining, power sectors and land acquisition 5. PSU reforms - Holding company structure 6. Accelerate infrastructure creation Dedicated Freight Corridor, 100 new cities, River-linking, Road and Rail Diamond Quadrilateral, National Gas Grid, Strengthen Power Grid, High Speed Rail, Alternate Energy 7
8 Investment cycle: Policy push + Cyclical upswing As bad as it gets: USD 130 billion projects stalled 9,000 8,000 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Rs. Bn Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Rs. Bn 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - (Rsbn) Quarterly Investments added during the quarter Private Sector Government Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Projects Stalled Growth YoY % 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Projects Under Implementation Growth YoY % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Investment cycle suffered a virtual collapse. Corporate sentiments were impaired due to lack of clear road map, slowing GDP growth and elevated cost of capital. Projects worth INR 8,000 bn got stalled due to Fuel linkages /EC/FC/Regulatory Clearances, creating a large back log of capital work in progress. Better policy framework and governance to revive investments. 8
9 Investment cycle: The opportunity 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Rs. Crs Delhi Source: Edelweiss MRTS projects under development Mumbai Bangalore Mass Rapid Transit System Chennai Hyderabad Gurgoan Cochin Jaipur National Highway Projects Pipeline & Execution Cummulative Projects Under Execution (km) 2 yr rolling execution (km) 109,600 Total 10,000 Railway Track addition in Kms. 9,000 Dedicated Freight Corridor 8,000 Feeder routes 7,000 5,500 6,000 5,000 4,000 The DFC impact 3,000 3,300 2,000 Trunk routes 1, , B Source: Barclays DFC FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Source: NHAI FDI in critical sectors like defense, media Policy for labor-intensive sectors like textiles and construction are likely 9
10 New Government Report Card Minimum Government, Maximum Governance on its way a) Abolished several Group of Ministers (GoM) and Empowered GoM (EGoM) b) Downsized the cabinet c) Emphasized time-bound and transparent decision-making and sharply increased the accountability of bureaucrats and ministers alike. Kick-starting the investment cycle a) Government promised to achieve 25km/day of road construction in FY15 b) Issues with 3 critical railway links for coal transportation stuck for a long time on various issues are being resolved with at least one project now on track. Inflation Control: The road is long Measures to address inflation in the short term Exhorting states to delist trade of fruits and vegetables through the Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMCs)- so farmers can sell directly The budget also promised a restructuring of the Food Corporation of India (FCI) 10
11 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Inflation and Rates to cool down further 12% WPI Core WPI 12.00% CPI 10% 11.00% Core CPI 8% 10.00% 6% 9.00% 4% 8.00% 7.00% 2% 6.00% 0% 5.00% -2% -4% Both the inflation matrix have registered a sharp decline in the month of June. Favorable base effects will continue to provide lower inflation prints till November. More importantly the momentum of Core inflation in case of both wholesale and retail has been trending down vs. its historical average. Going forward we expect inflation to atleast achieve RBI glide path thus creating a headroom for monetary easing eventually. Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC 11
12 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Apr'06 Sep'06 Feb'07 Jul'07 Dec'07 May'08 Oct'08 Mar'09 Aug'09 Jan'10 Jun'10 Nov'10 Apr'11 Sep'11 Feb'12 Jul'12 Dec'12 May'13 Oct'13 Mar'14 IIP and PMI pick up.. Early signs of recovery 70.0 PMI Manufacturing PMI Services IIP % 20.0% 15.0% % % 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Industrial activity has shown green shoots since the beginning if the fiscal. High frequency data such as automobile sales freight traffic etc. has also registered positive growth rates. The PMI for both manufacturing and services is back to expansionary mode. The business expectation index also hits at revival continuation. The nascent sign of recovery in PMI and IIP reflect a cyclical upturn in GDP growth rate. 12
13 Current Account and Currency have stabilized Policy responses have worked.. 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Jan-05 Jul-05 Mar-13 Jan-06 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Imports, 3mma Exports, 3mma Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Current Account Capital Account % of GDP, quarterly annualised Dramatic reduction seen in India s trade deficit due to falling imports and rising imports Gold imports are down 70%. Non Oil, Non Gold imports also down. Current account deficit for quarter ended March 14 is the lowest in 4 years Indian Rupee is amongst the best performing in the past 9 months Indian Rupee Brazilian Real S. African Rand Indo Rupiah 90 Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC 13
14 Budget The guiding post Budget Overview GDP growth estimated between % as per the economic survey Fiscal deficit budgeted at 4.1 % of GDP- and fiscal path 3.6% in FY16 and 3% in FY17. Current account deficit expected at 2.1% of GDP Revenue deficit projected at 2.9% of GDP Net market borrowing to be Rs. 4.6 lakh crores Road Map expected Market expected clarity on Road map for GST & reforms for Subsidy rationalization. Lack of clarity on the application of GAAR created uncertainty for a host of entities. Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC 14
15 Budget Math and Our View FY14 Deficit The fiscal deficit for FY14 was finally pegged at 4.5% of GDP v/s budget estimates of 4.8% of GDP Sharp cut in planned expenditure key reason (10.8% growth vs BE of 29.4%) Revenues were running below budget estimates due to slowdown in economic activity and shortfall in divestment receipts FY15 budget math: More realistic The fiscal arithmetic is based on nominal GDP growth of 13.4%, total revenues rising 15.6% and expenditure rising 12.9% GDP growth assumption moderately optimistic, expect receipts targets to be met on account of non-tax revenues Higher expenditure budgeted for an investment starved economy Upside risks to fiscal deficit unlikely 15
16 Budget Key Sector announcements Sector Impact Announcements Infrastructure Capital Goods Capital Goods Power Utilities Positive for all Road developers/ Asset Owners Positive for T&D companies Positive for all Industrial companies Positive for entire sector NHAI allocation, Plan to construct 8000Km road, Increase in planned Expenditure, REIT New Feeder separation scheme Investment allowance of 15% for investments made above Rs250mn as compared to Rs1bn earlier for a period of 3 years. Govt. to oversee that all power companies to get adequate coal supply Banking Banking and Insurance Positive for Infra- Finance Positive for insurance companies Banks to be permitted to raise long term funds for lending to infrastructure sector Proposed to increase foreign ownership limit in the insurance sector from 26% to 49% through the FIPB route Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC 16
17 India Inc: On the path to recovery 17
18 We expect cyclical bottom in GDP growth rates 12% BoP Crisis South East Asian Crisis Dot.Com Bust & 9/11 Global Financial Crisis 10% 8% GDP Growth Rate Avg ('91-'13) = 6.63% 6% 4% 2% 0% FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY15 E FY16 E FY17 E Since 91 India s growth has averaged 6.6%. We believe GDP growth has bottomed out in 2014 Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC 18
19 Sales and Margins Slow Recovery has begun Sales growth for SENSEX Companies Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E EBITDA Margin (%) for SENSEX Companies Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E Source: MOFSL, BSLAMC 19
20 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 May-99 Mar-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14e Profitability at cyclical lows.. Margins and Interest costs are key drivers of profits 90% 85% 80% 75% Total asset turnover ratio 60% 50% 40% Aggregate Interest to EBITDA 70% 30% 65% 60% 55% 20% 10% 50% 0% 7% 6% Corporate Profits (% of GDP) Profit to GDP halved 26 SENSEX ROE (%) % 22 4% 3% Year Average 19.0% % 1% 14 0% 10 Source: Bloomberg, BSLAMC, IIFL & MOSL 20
21 Consensus expectations are still low FY12 FY FY FY15E FY16E Apr2010 Oct2010 Apr2011 Oct2011 Apr2012 Oct2012 Apr2013 Oct2013 Apr2014 Over the last four years we have seen an earning decline cycle. In FY12,FY13, FY14 we say sharp cuts in Sensex earnings estimates. From Dec 2013 we saw consensus earning revision towards the positive side. Historically, analyst estimates for earning growth tends to lag in accelerating GDP growth environment,. Over the course of next few years we expect upwards revision in estimates Source: Morgan Stanley Research 21
22 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Markets at all time High.. Where are Valuations Sensex PE (x) Mutiple de-rating
23 May-99 Mar-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 May-99 Mar-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 Market valuations are still reasonable 27 SENSEX P/E (x) 4.5 SENSEX P/B (x) Year Average is 15.1x Year Average 2.6x % 140% India Market Cap to GDP Valuations are slightly above the Long term averages of 15.1x. Currently Sensex trades at 15.8x 1 Year forward PE. 120% 100% 80% 60% Even as indices are trading near all-time high levels, valuation parameters are comfortably below the 2008 highs. 40% 20% 0% The current PE are on moderate earnings growth estimates. As earning upgrades cycle sets in on visibility in reform process, valuations will provide further comfort. Source: Morgan Stanley Research 23
24 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Opportunities in valuation gaps, cyclical more headroom.. Defensives vs Sensex P/B Cyclicals vs Sensex P/B 6.0 FMCG-Sensex P/B +2 SD -2 SD Average Cap Goods-Sensex P/B +2 SD -2 SD Average Pharma-Sensex P/B +2 SD -2 SD Average Metals-Sensex P/B +2 SD -2 SD Average Cyclical sectors trading below their LT average levels makes a compelling case for mean reversion as outlook improves. Source: MOFSL, BSLAMC 24
25 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Sensex Historical Earnings Growth FY93-96: 45% CAGR Correlation of Earning Sensex CAGR 14% growth and PE Re-rating FY96-03: 1% CAGR FY93-FY14: 14% CAGR Sensex PE (x) Sensex CAGR -1% 348 FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY08-14: 8% CAGR 1,024 1,123 1,184 Sensex CAGR 39% Sensex CAGR -1% FY14-16E: 16% CAGR 1,802 1,338 1, Source: MOFSL, BSLAMC 25
26 Outlook Equity markets have rallied on decisive election outcome leading to hopes of improving pace and quality of economic recovery. A pro-reform government coupled with decisive leadership will accelerate the reforms and growth process. The depressed corporate profitability will improve over the next 3 to 5 of years as the economy sees a cyclical uptick, clocking CAGR of 18% - driven by higher revenues, operating leverage and interest costs savings. Even post the sharp run up- Sensex trades at 1year forward PE of 16.8x. Earning upgrades cycle on visibility in reform process will provide further support to market and valuations. We expect cyclical recovery in economy with average GDP growth of 6% over the next 5years with exit GDP of 7.5 to 8%. - equity returns will be driven both by earning growth and valuation re-rating providing investor a good investment opportunity. In the current scenario, equity investments provide a compelling case over other asset classes. Indian investors should increase their equity allocations and benefit from Indian growth story. 26
27 Thank You 27
28 Disclaimers Internal views, estimates, opinions of BSLAMC expressed herein may or may not materialize. These views, estimates, opinions alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information Document(SID) of the scheme. Please refer to the SID for asset allocation, investment strategy and scheme specific risk factors. Forward looking statements are based on internal views and assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could materially impact or differ the actual results or performance from those expressed or implied under those statements. This document is strictly confidential and meant for private circulation only and should not at any point of time be construed to be an invitation to the public for subscribing to the units of Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. Please note that this is not an advertisement. The document is solely for the information and understanding of intended recipients only. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, distribution, reproduction or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon the same is prohibited and may be unlawful. Views expressed herein should not be construed as investment advice to any party and are not necessarily those of Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd.(BSLAMC) or any of their officers, employees, personnel, directors and BSLAMC and its officers, employees, personnel, directors do not accept responsibility for the editorial content. Wherever possible, all the figures and data given are dated, and the same may or may not be relevant at a future date. Further the opinions expressed and facts referred to in this document are subject to change without notice and BSLAMC is under no obligation to update the same. While utmost care has been exercised, BSLAMC or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the content and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. Recipients of this material should exercise due care and read the scheme information document (including if necessary, obtaining the advice of tax/legal/accounting/financial/other professional(s) prior to taking of any decision, acting or omitting to act. Further, the recipient shall not copy/circulate contents of this document, in part or in whole, or in any other manner whatsoever without prior and explicit approval of BSLAMC. 28
29 Statutory Details & Risk Factors Statutory Details: Constitution: Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund (BSLMF) has been set up as a Trust under the Indian Trusts Act, Sponsors: Aditya Birla Financial Services Private Limited and Sun Life (India) AMC Investments Inc. (liability restricted to seed corpus of 1 Lac). Trustee: Birla Sun Life Trustee Company Pvt. Ltd. Investment Manager: Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. Risk Factors: Mutual Funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and there can be no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the Scheme will be achieved. As with any investment in securities, the NAV of the Units issued under the Scheme may go up or down depending on the various factors and forces affecting capital markets and money markets. Past performance of the Sponsor / Investment Manager / Mutual Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Schemes and may not necessarily provide a basis of comparison with other investments. The names of the Schemes do not, in any manner, indicate either the quality of the Schemes or their future prospects or returns. Unitholders in the schemes are not being offered any guaranteed/assured returns. Investors should read the Statement of Additional Information / Scheme Information Document/ Key Information Memorandum available at Investor Service Centers and with distributors carefully before investing. The Material provided in this communication cannot be reproduced or quoted anywhere without express permission from Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd. 29
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