S&T AG Austria - IT Services

Transcription

1 Austria - IT Services Buy (old: Buy) 03-April-18 Price target: EUR (old: EUR 23.00) Price: EUR Next result: Q1 '18: tba Tim Wunderlich, CFA Bloomberg: SANT@GR Market cap: EUR 1,129.3 m tim.wunderlich@ha-ib.de Reuters: SANT1.DE Enterprise Value: EUR 1,048.7 m Tel.: S&T turns in a beat; C-Level buys shares; chg. est. & PT Following the release of FY 17 results last Thursday, the shares sold off strongly which was fundamentally unjustified, in our view. In fact, S&T turned in a strong beat: FY'17 sales reached 882m versus 860m guidance and 870m econs. FY'17 EBITDA soared past expectations to 68m versus 62m consensus and > 60m guidance. Drivers: (1) Stronger than expected cost synergies with Kontron; (2) Excellent demand for IoT Solutions combining embedded solutions (i.e. Kontron's expertise) with software (i.e. S&T's expertise) backed by cost attractive manufacturing (i.e. Foxconn). While some investors seem to have been dissatisfied with higher-than-expected minorities and interest expenses, also the reported pro forma EPS of 0.51 (i.e. adjusted for PPA) beat our expectations of In this regard, note that both minorities and interest expenses should decline substantially in 2018 as: M&A bridge financing for Kontron will no longer be needed AND S&T will redeem its expensive 7.25% bond ( 15m volume) in May S&T by now owns almost 95% of Kontron whereas it gradually built up its stake last year largely explaining lofty minorities in As a sign of confidence, the CEO and CFO bought shares worth 220k and 200k, respectively on Thursday at prices of per share and per share. In light of the better-than-expected FY 17 results, S&T s FY 18E guidance ( 1bn sales / > 80m EBITDA) looks rather conservative on the bottom-line (eh&a: 88m EBITDA). We continue to see strong growth and margin expansion in segments IoT Solutions ( 320m sales / 11% EBITDA margin) and Embedded Systems ( 175m sales / 11% EBITDA margin) driven by the rapidly advancing inter-connection of machines and the Foxconn co-operation (i.e. / ). This is underpinned by S&T s initial mid-term outlook targeting 2bn sales by 2023E which implies 15% growth CAGR and should thus be significantly above the market's expectations of 8-10% p.a. Action: Estimates are raised to account for better-than-expected results. 2020E is introduced. Remains a BUY with a new PT (prior: 23.00) based on DCF. Y/E (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E , , ,227.1 growth 14 % 21 % 8 % 75 % 14 % 11 % 10 % EBITDA EBIT Net income Net debt Net gearing 1.7 % -9.4% -20.7% -33.4% -32.1% -38.5% -44.5% Net Debt/EBITDA EPS pro forma CPS DPS Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.1 % Gross profit margin 33.2 % 34.3 % 33.9 % 36.7 % 37.6 % 38.5 % 39.1 % EBITDA margin 5.9 % 6.1 % 6.8 % 7.7 % 8.8 % 9.6 % 10.4 % EBIT margin 4.3 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 4.7 % 6.4 % 7.5 % 8.4 % ROCE 12.4 % 13.8 % 8.8 % 9.4 % 13.0 % 16.7 % 19.1 % EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT PER Adjusted FCF yield 2.0 % 2.7 % 2.6 % 4.2 % 6.6 % 8.5 % 10.6 % Close price as of: High/low 52 weeks: / Price/Book Ratio: 4.2 Relative performance (TecDAX): 3 months 7.4 % 6 months 5.3 % 12 months 73.7 % Changes in estimates Key share data: EBIT EPS % 5.4% 2.1% 1, % 5.9% 3.8% Number of shares: (in m pcs) 52.5 Authorised capital: (in m) 12.1 Book value per share: (in ) 4.8 Ø trading volume: (12 months) 60,000 Major shareholders: Free Float 77.7 % Ennoconn 22.3 % AGI 4.0 % JP Morgan 4.0 % grosso Holding 2.9 % CEO (incl. in Free Float) 2.0 % Company description: S&T combines an IT system house business with a portfolio of security appliances targeting Cloud Computing applications.

2 Financials Profit and loss (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E Net sales , , ,227.1 Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process Total sales , , ,239.4 Other operating income Material expenses Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Total operating expenses , ,112.4 EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Impairment charges EBIT Interest income Interest expenses Other financial result Financial result Recurring pretax income from continuing operations Extraordinary income/loss Earnings before taxes Taxes Net income from continuing operations Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income Minority interest Net income (net of minority interest) Average number of shares EPS reported Profit and loss (common size) E 2019E 2020E Net sales % % % % % % % Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % Total sales % % % % % % % Other operating income 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.4 % Material expenses 67.0 % 66.1 % 66.5 % 64.3 % 63.0 % 62.1 % 61.5 % Personnel expenses 18.8 % 19.1 % 18.6 % 20.3 % 19.8 % 19.8 % 19.6 % Other operating expenses 9.9 % 10.7 % 9.9 % 10.1 % 9.9 % 9.9 % 9.9 % Total operating expenses 94.4 % 94.5 % 93.7 % 93.8 % 92.2 % 91.4 % 90.7 % EBITDA 5.9 % 6.1 % 6.8 % 7.7 % 8.8 % 9.6 % 10.4 % Depreciation 0.6 % 1.7 % 2.0 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % EBITA 5.4 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 6.9 % 7.9 % 8.7 % 9.4 % Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Amortisation of intangible assets 1.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.1 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 1.1 % Impairment charges 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % EBIT 4.3 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 4.7 % 6.4 % 7.5 % 8.4 % Interest income 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Interest expenses 0.8 % 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Other financial result -0.1% 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Financial result -0.5% -0.5% -0.8% -0.7% -0.5% -0.3% -0.2% Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 3.8 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 4.0 % 5.9 % 7.2 % 8.2 % Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Earnings before taxes 3.8 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 4.0 % 5.9 % 7.2 % 8.2 % Tax rate 5.2 % 4.3 % -1.6% 17.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % Net income from continuing operations 3.6 % 3.8 % 4.1 % 3.3 % 5.3 % 6.5 % 7.4 % Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Net income 3.6 % 3.8 % 4.1 % 3.3 % 5.3 % 6.5 % 7.4 % Minority interest 0.3 % 0.4 % 1.2 % 0.8 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 % Net income (net of minority interest) 3.4 % 3.4 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 5.0 % 6.3 % 7.1 % 2 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

3 Balance sheet (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E Intangible assets Property, plant and equipment Financial assets FIXED ASSETS Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Liquid assets Deferred taxes Deferred charges and prepaid expenses CURRENT ASSETS TOTAL ASSETS SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY MINORITY INTEREST Long-term debt Provisions for pensions and similar obligations Other provisions Non-current liabilities short-term liabilities to banks Accounts payable Advance payments received on orders Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) Deferred taxes Deferred income Current liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Balance sheet (common size) E 2019E 2020E Intangible assets 20.9 % 22.8 % 27.4 % 23.6 % 23.3 % 21.5 % 19.4 % Property, plant and equipment 4.2 % 4.7 % 4.1 % 4.0 % 4.8 % 5.2 % 5.4 % Financial assets 1.4 % 1.0 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.0 % 1.8 % FIXED ASSETS 26.5 % 28.5 % 33.3 % 29.7 % 30.3 % 28.7 % 26.6 % Inventories 11.0 % 9.0 % 12.7 % 12.9 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 11.8 % Accounts receivable 35.0 % 27.1 % 25.2 % 21.4 % 27.4 % 28.1 % 27.7 % Other current assets 8.1 % 11.5 % 6.2 % 5.4 % 5.6 % 5.2 % 4.8 % Liquid assets 14.5 % 18.9 % 18.8 % 27.0 % 21.1 % 22.8 % 26.2 % Deferred taxes 5.0 % 5.0 % 3.8 % 3.6 % 3.6 % 3.3 % 2.9 % Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % CURRENT ASSETS 73.5 % 71.5 % 66.7 % 70.3 % 69.7 % 71.3 % 73.4 % TOTAL ASSETS % % % % % % % SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 31.8 % 31.3 % 23.0 % 37.9 % 40.6 % 44.2 % 47.3 % MINORITY INTEREST 1.0 % 0.8 % 13.0 % 3.3 % 3.3 % 3.1 % 2.8 % Long-term debt 9.6 % 8.8 % 11.1 % 8.5 % 6.2 % 4.0 % 3.6 % Provisions for pensions and similar obligations 0.8 % 0.8 % 1.7 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 2.2 % Other provisions 1.7 % 1.9 % 5.8 % 4.6 % 4.7 % 4.5 % 4.1 % Non-current liabilities 12.1 % 11.5 % 18.7 % 15.7 % 13.6 % 11.0 % 10.0 % short-term liabilities to banks 5.4 % 7.2 % 2.9 % 5.8 % 1.9 % 1.7 % 1.5 % Accounts payable 27.2 % 22.0 % 20.1 % 19.2 % 22.0 % 22.5 % 22.2 % Advance payments received on orders 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 21.9 % 26.9 % 21.5 % 16.9 % 17.4 % 16.5 % 15.3 % Deferred taxes 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 1.0 % Deferred income 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % Current liabilities 55.1 % 56.5 % 45.3 % 43.0 % 42.4 % 41.8 % 39.9 % TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY % % % % % % % 3 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

4 Cash flow statement (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E Net profit/loss Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Others Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c Increase/decrease in inventory Increase/decrease in accounts receivable Increase/decrease in accounts payable Increase/decrease in other working capital positions Increase/decrease in working capital Cash flow from operating activities CAPEX Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Cash flow from investing activities Cash flow before financing Increase/decrease in debt position Purchase of own shares Capital measures Dividends paid Others Effects of exchange rate changes on cash Cash flow from financing activities Increase/decrease in liquid assets Liquid assets at end of period Regional split (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E Domestic yoy change -4.8% -19.5% 14.8 % -4.6% 5.2 % 1.8 % 10.0 % Rest of Europe yoy change 18.9 % -42.5% -9.8% 48.5 % 13.9 % 11.0 % 6.1 % NAFTA n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a yoy change n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Asia Pacific n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a yoy change n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Rest of world n/a yoy change n/a n/a 19.8 % % 14.8 % 11.8 % 11.7 % TTL , , ,227.1 yoy change 14.1 % 21.4 % 7.6 % 75.1 % 13.9 % 11.0 % 10.0 % 4 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

5 Key ratios (EUR m) E 2019E 2020E P&L growth analysis growth 14.1 % 21.4 % 7.6 % 75.1 % 13.9 % 11.0 % 10.0 % EBITDA growth 14.0 % 23.9 % 21.3 % 97.9 % 29.9 % 21.1 % 43.6 % EBIT growth 16.2 % 24.1 % 16.9 % 73.1 % 52.9 % 30.9 % 60.6 % EPS growth 5.4 % 15.3 % -9.3% 29.9 % 86.5 % 37.8 % 71.9 % Efficiency Total operating costs / sales 94.4 % 94.5 % 93.7 % 93.8 % 92.2 % 91.4 % 90.7 % per employee EBITDA per employee Balance sheet analysis Avg. working capital / sales 12.9 % 10.3 % 16.3 % 13.6 % 13.0 % 13.1 % 12.6 % Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) Trade debtors in days of sales A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] Cash conversion cycle (days) Cash flow analysis Free cash flow Free cash flow/sales 3.8 % 3.7 % 10.3 % 2.5 % 3.1 % 4.8 % 5.5 % FCF / net profit % % % 97.3 % 61.1 % 76.2 % 77.0 % Capex / depn % % % % % % % Capex / maintenance capex 37.3 % 46.8 % 34.8 % % % % % Capex / sales n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Security Net debt Net Debt/EBITDA Net debt / equity Interest cover Dividend payout ratio 23.3 % 21.9 % 33.1 % 36.6 % 18.8 % 15.4 % 14.8 % Asset utilisation Capital employed turnover Operating assets turnover Plant turnover Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) Returns ROCE 12.4 % 13.8 % 8.8 % 9.4 % 13.0 % 16.7 % 19.1 % ROE 14.9 % 15.9 % 9.5 % 7.4 % 15.6 % 18.2 % 18.9 % Other Interest paid / avg. debt 6.8 % 6.5 % 6.0 % 6.6 % 5.9 % 5.9 % 5.1 % No. employees (average) Number of shares DPS EPS reported Valuation ratios P/BV EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBITA EV/EBIT EV/FCF Adjusted FCF yield 2.0 % 2.7 % 2.6 % 4.2 % 6.6 % 8.5 % 10.6 % Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 5 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

6 Disclosures regarding research publications of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and distributed in the UK under an EEA branch passport, subject to the FCA requirements on research recommendation disclosures It is essential that any research recommendation is fairly presented and discloses interests of indicates relevant conflicts of interest. Pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) a research report has to point out possible conflicts of interest in connection with the analysed company. Further to this, under the FCA s rules on research recommendations, any conflicts of interest in connection with the recommendation must be disclosed. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist in particular if Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG (1) or its affiliate(s) (either in its own right or as part of a consortium) within the past twelve months, acquired the financial instruments of the analysed company, (2) has entered into an agreement on the production of the research report with the analysed company, (3) or its affiliate(s) has, within the past twelve months, been party to an agreement on the provision of investment banking services with the analysed company or have received services or a promise of services under the term of such an agreement, (4) or its affiliate(s) holds a) 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company, or b) the analysed company holds 5% or more of the share capital of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG or its affiliate(s), (5) or its affiliate(s) holds a net long (a) or a net short (b) position of 0.5% of the outstanding share capital of the analysed company or derivatives thereof, (6) or its affiliate(s) is a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of the issuer, (7) or the analyst has any other significant financial interests relating to the analysed company such as, for example, exercising mandates in the interest of the analysed company or a significant conflict of interest with respect to the issuer, (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report. Conflicts of interest that existed at the time when this research report was published: Company Disclosure S&T AG 3 Historical target price and rating changes for S&T AG in the last 12 months Initiation coverage 30-May-12 Company Date Rating Target price Close S&T AG Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Wunderlich, CFA, Tim Buy EUR EUR Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

7 Hauck & Aufhäuser distribution of ratings and in proportion to investment banking services Buy % % Sell % 0.00 % Hold % 0.00 % Date of publication creation: 03/04/ :58 AM Date of publication dissemination: 03/04/ :17 AM 7 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

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It may be possible that parts of the research report were handed out to the issuer for information purposes prior to the publication without any major amendments being made thereafter. 3. Organisational Requirements Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG took internal organisational and regulative precautions to avoid or accordingly disclose possible conflicts of interest in connection with the preparation and distribution of the research report. All members of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG involved in the preparation of the research report are subject to internal compliance regulations. No part of the Producer s compensation is directly or indirectly related to the preparation of this financial analysis. In case a research analyst or a closely related person is confronted with a conflict of interest, the research analyst is restricted from covering this company. 4. Information Concerning the Methods of Valuation/Update The determination of the fair value per share, i.e. the price target, and the resultant rating is done on the basis of the adjusted free cash flow (adj. FCF) method and on the basis of the discounted cash flow DCF model. Furthermore, a peer group comparison is made. The adj. FCF method is based on the assumption that investors purchase assets only at a price (enterprise value) at which the operating cash flow return after taxes on this investment exceeds their opportunity costs in the form of a hurdle rate of 7.5%. The operating cash flow is calculated as EBITDA less maintenance capex and taxes. Within the framework of the DCF approach, the future free cash flows are calculated initially on the basis of a fictitious capital structure of 100% equity, i.e. interest and repayments on debt capital are not factored in initially. The adjustment towards the actual capital structure is done by discounting the calculated free cash flows with the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which takes into account both the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt. After discounting, the calculated total enterprise value is reduced by the interest-bearing debt capital in order to arrive at the equity value. Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG uses the following three-step rating system for the analysed companies: Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months. Hold: Upside/downside potential is limited. No immediate catalyst visible. NB: The ratings of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG are not based on a performance that is expected to be relative to the market. The decision on the choice of the financial instruments analysed in this document was solely made by Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG. 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Miscellaneous According to Article 4(1) No. i of the delegated regulation 2016/958 supplementing regulation 596/2014 of the European Parliament, further information regarding investment recommendations of the last 12 months are published under: 8 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG

9 Contacts: Hauck&Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG Hauck & Aufhäuser Research Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG Mittelweg 16/ Hamburg Germany Tel.: +49 (0) Fax: +49 (0) Gunnar Cohrs Co-Head of Equities Tel.: Tim Wunderlich, CFA Head of Research Tel.: Henning Breiter Head of Research Tel.: Robin Brass, CFA Tel.: Lars Dannenberg Tel.: Christian Glowa Tel.: Pierre Gröning Tel.: Aliaksandr Halitsa Tel.: Christian Salis Tel.: Christian Sandherr Tel.: Carlos Becke Tel.: Hauck & Aufhäuser Carsten Kinder Head of Equities Tel.: Christian Alisch Tel.: Alexander Lachmann Tel.: Marco Schumann Tel.: Toby Woods Head of Tel.: Vincent Bischoff Tel.: Hugues Madelin Tel.: hugues.madelin@ha-ib.de Christian Schwenkenbecher Tel.: christian.schwenkenbecher@ha-ib.de Georgina Harrold Tel.: georgina.harrold@ha-ib.de Jan Neynaber Tel.: jan.neynaber@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Hauck & Aufhäuser Trading Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG Mittelweg 16/ Hamburg Germany Tel.: Fax: info@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Mirko Brueggemann Trading Tel.: E.Mail: mirko.brueggemann@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Kathleen Jonas Middle-Office Tel.: E.Mail: kathleen.jonas@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Christian von Schuler Trading Tel.: E.Mail: christian.schuler@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Carolin Weber Middle-Office Tel.: E.Mail: carolin.weber@hauck-aufhaeuser.com Fin Schaffer Trading Tel.: E.Mail: fin.schaffer@hauck-aufhaeuser.com 9 Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers AG