1875 FINANCE THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE CIO OFFICE ADVISORY TEAM Morning Briefing Friday, May 04, 2018 That 200 day moving average

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1 1875 FINANCE THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE 1875 CIO OFFICE ADVISORY TEAM Morning Briefing Friday, May 04, 2018 That 200 day moving average

2 CARTOON OF THE DAY Source: Hedgeye.com 2

3 RELEVANT NEWS Markets Jobs report will be a big deal, but China could be what moves stocks Friday VIX Is Said to Face Probes With Unusual Auctions at Issue DAX Dancing Around Resistance Line Might Need a Pause First Companies Buffett Buys a Further 75 Million Apple Shares, CNBC Reports HSBC Hammered as Investors Ignore Buyback to Focus on Expenses BNP Paribas Books Lower Trading Revenue on Fixed-Income Slump SWISS RE 1Q NET INCOME $457M, EST. $438.8M Economy & FX Mnuchin Says U.S., China in Very Good Conversation on Trade Brexit Transition Must Be Extended, U.K. Officials Said to Think Non-manufacturing index slows, but keeps 99-month growth streak alive US trade deficit drops for the first time in 7 months as exports hit a record high Interesting articles (click on link) Airbnb cost New York City renters $616 million in 2016, city says Longtime bull Jeremy Siegel: Market is facing two big uncertainties this year Payrolls Preview: After March Miss, "Don't Expect Much Of A Weather Bounce" 3

4 US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS Source: cnn.com, 1875 FINANCE, Bloobmerg Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows >> red zone = overbought conditions PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day >> red zone = oversold conditions AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months >> red zone = overbought conditions 4

5 CHART OF THE DAY - INTERNAL RESEARCH The S&P500 has been flirting with its 200 day moving average. Decisive day/week? Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 5

6 COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES Major companies results Europe EPS [e] US EPS [e] Switzerland EPS [e] Societe Generale SA 1.02 Newell Brands Inc 1.28 Swiss Re AG 2.63 BNP Paribas SA 1.26 IDEXX Laboratories Inc 0.26 Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 0.21 Cboe Global Markets Inc 0.92 BASF SE 1.97 Celgene Corp 1.96 source : 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg Analysts recommendations Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations Geberit: Deutsche Bank raises target to 450 (449) CHF Caterpillar (CAT) downgraded to neutral at BofAML; PT $156 3M Co (MMM) upgraded to outperform at RBC; PT $238 Ahold Delhaize Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target 20 Euros Deere (DE) upgraded to buy at BofAML; PT $159 source : 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 6

7 ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY Date & Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance 8:45 FR Trade Balance Mar -5 Bn Bn Medium 9:45 IT Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Apr High 9:45 IT Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Apr High 9:50 FR Markit France Services PMI Apr High 9:50 FR Markit France Composite PMI Apr High 9:55 GE Markit Germany Services PMI Apr High 9:55 GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Apr High 10:00 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Apr High 10:00 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Apr High 11:00 EC Retail Sales MoM Mar 0.50% 0.10% Medium 11:00 EC Retail Sales YoY Mar 1.90% 1.80% Medium 14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 195' '000 High 14:30 US Unemployment Rate Apr 4.00% 4.10% High 14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM Apr 0.20% 0.30% High 14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Apr 2.70% 2.70% High 14:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Apr 62.90% 62.90% Medium Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 7

8 DAILY MARKET DATA Major Indices Sectors Performances Sovereign Bonds America Europe Asia EM Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield US - DOW JONES 23' % -3.19% Consumer Discretion % 2.99% USA 2.48% 2.78% 2.95% US - S&P500 2' % -1.64% Consumer Staples % -8.46% Eurozone -0.59% -0.09% 0.53% US - NASDAQ 7' % 2.68% Energy % 1.76% Switzerland -0.79% -0.49% 0.02% CANADA - TSX 15' % -3.63% Financials % -1.71% UK 0.75% 1.08% 1.39% MEXICO - IPC 47' % -4.58% Healthcare % -1.07% Sweden -0.55% 0.04% 0.66% Industrials % -1.10% Canada 1.91% 2.14% 2.32% Technology % 5.08% Japan -0.14% -0.11% 0.04% Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials % -1.85% Australia 2.03% 2.42% 2.78% EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3' % 0.72% Telecom Services % -6.27% China 3.20% 3.09% 3.64% UK - FTSE 100 7' % -2.41% Utilities % -2.08% Turkish 14.48% 13.95% 13.01% GERMANY - DAX 12' % -1.76% FRANCE - CAC 40 5' % 3.56% Volatility Commodities SWITZERLAND - SMI 8' % -5.75% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD SPAIN - IBEX 10' % -0.05% VIX S&P % 44.02% GLOBAL COMMODITY ITALY - FTSE MIB 24' % 10.12% VXN Nasdaq % 25.32% CRB Index % 4.25% SWEDEN - OMX 1' % -0.63% VSTOXX Stoxx % 7.00% ENERGY V3VI SMI % 8.99% Crude Oil (WTI) US % 13.92% Brent oil UK % 12.46% Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Currencies Natural Gas % -1.51% JAPAN - NIKKEI ' % -1.28% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 3' % -6.39% EUR / USD % -0.17% Aluminium % 0.04% HONG KONG - HIS 30' % 0.80% EUR / CHF % 2.22% Copper % -5.80% SINGAPORE - STI 3' % 4.42% EUR / GBP % -0.61% Zinc % -9.40% EUR / SEK % 7.33% Cobalt % 17.68% EUR / TRY % 11.60% Lithium N/A 1.34% Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF % 2.44% PRECIOUS METALS BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 83' % 9.01% USD / SEK % 7.62% Gold % 0.81% RUSSIA - RTS 1' % -2.27% USD / JPY % -3.21% Silver % -2.83% INDIA - BSE SENSEX 34' % 2.62% USD / TRY % 11.43% Palladium % -9.15% TURKEY - BIST ' % % GBP / USD % 0.50% Platinum % -2.77% Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg MSCI WORLD Indicators Major crosses 8

9 COMMODITIES FUTURES 1D CHANGE (% ) YTD CHANGE (% ) ALUMINIUM SUGAR NICKEL LIVE CAT T LE ZINC ZINC COTTON SOYBEAN OIL SUGAR COPPER SOYBEAN LEAN HOGS SOYBEAN MEAL SILVER WT I CRUDE OIL COFFEE BRENT CRUDE OIL 0.03 NAT GAS GOLD 0.09 ALUMINIUM CORN 0.13 GOLD 0.35 GASOLINE 0.13 COT T ON 7.40 NAT GAS 0.14 NICKEL 7.94 LEAN HOGS 0.26 SOYBEAN 9.17 SILVER 0.26 BRENT CRUDE OIL COFFEE 0.49 WT I CRUDE OIL COPPER 0.69 CORN SOYBEAN OIL 0.69 GASOLINE LIVE CAT T LE 1.60 WHEAT WHEAT 2.81 SOYBEAN MEAL Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 9

10 SWISS STOCKS RADAR Perf Year-to-Date Best Worst Expensive Cheap Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap Price Earning Ratio 2018e 1 VP BANK AG 27% 1 ARYZT A AG -44% 1 KUDELSKI SA-BR SWISS RE AG VIFOR PHARMA AG 26% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -28% 2 VIFOR PHARMA AG SWISS LIFE H AG LOGITECH INTER-R 20% 3 BURKHALTER HLDG -27% 3 TEMENOS GROU-REG ADECCO GROUP AG KARDEX AG-REG 19% 4 KUDELSKI SA-BR -23% 4 YPSOMED HOLD-REG UBS GROUP AG SWATCH GROUP-BR 19% 5 EFG INTERNAT AG -22% 5 LINDT &SPRUENGLI LEONTEQ AG IMPLENIA AG-REG 19% 6 GURIT HOLDING-BR -19% 6 STRAUMANN HLDG-R HELVETIA HOL-REG SWATCH GROUP/THE 18% 7 BOBST GROUP -REG -18% 7 LEM HOLDING-REG EFG INTERNAT AG EMMI AG-REG 17% 8 VZ HOLDING AG -16% 8 TECAN GROUP AG-R AUTONEUM HOLDING BKW AG 13% 9 PANALPINA WE-REG -16% 9 BURCKHARDT COMPR BALOISE HOL-REG HUBER + SUHN-REG 12% 10 RIETER HLDG-REG -16% 10 PANALPINA WE-REG ZURICH INSURANCE Relative Strenght Index High Low Best Worst Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside 1 LINDT &SPRUENGLI BURKHALTER HLDG NEWRON PHARMACEU 145% 1 LEM HOLDING-REG % Upside Potential 2 LOGITECH INTER-R VALIANT HLDG AG MEYER BURGER TEC 64% 2 LINDT &SPRUENGLI % 3 VP BANK AG BUCHER INDUS-REG AMS AG 43% 3 KARDEX AG-REG % 4 EMMI AG-REG AMS AG LEONTEQ AG 36% 4 BARRY CALLEB-REG -9.49% 5 NEWRON PHARMACEU VAT GROUP AG KUDELSKI SA-BR 31% 5 BANQUE CANTO-REG -9.31% 6 SWISS PRIME -REG KUDELSKI SA-BR RIET ER HLDG-REG 29% 6 T EMENOS GROU-REG -8.62% 7 T EMENOS GROU-REG UBS GROUP AG FORBO HOLDIN-REG 24% 7 VIFOR PHARMA AG -7.91% 8 SONOVA HOLDING A ADECCO GROUP AG COMET HOLDING-R 23% 8 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -6.55% 9 SWATCH GROUP-BR SWISS RE AG AUTONEUM HOLDING 23% 9 ST GALLER KA-REG -6.02% 10 VONTOBEL HLDG-R MEYER BURGER TEC EFG INTERNAT AG 23% 10 SWATCH GROUP-BR -5.17% Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg Universe: top 100 largest Swiss Companies 10

11 EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR Perf Year-to-Date Best Worst Expensive Cheap Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap Price Earning Ratio 2018e 1 NOKIA OYJ 25% 1 DEUT SCHE BANK-RG -29% 1 ESSILOR INT L VOLKSWAGEN-PREF LVMH MOET HENNE 19% 2 ANHEUSER-BUSCH I -13% 2 L'OREAL DAIMLER AG AIRBUS SE 18% 3 ING GROEP NV -10% 3 ASML HOLDING NV BAYER MOTOREN WK ENI SPA 17% 4 INDITEX -10% 4 LVMH MOET HENNE AXA ADIDAS AG 16% 5 AXA -9% 5 VIVENDI BBVA SAFRAN SA 14% 6 SANOFI -9% 6 INDITEX SOC GENERALE SA INT ESA SANPAOLO 14% 7 DEUT SCHE POST -RG -8% 7 SAFRAN SA BNP PARIBAS KONINKLIJKE PHIL 14% 8 SIEMENS AG-REG -7% 8 SAP SE ING GROEP NV TOTAL SA 12% 9 BASF SE -6% 9 NOKIA OYJ BANCO SANTANDER ASML HOLDING NV 10% 10 DAIMLER AG -6% 10 UNILEVER NV-CVA TELEFONICA Relative Strenght Index High Low Best Worst Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside Upside Potential (consensus) 1 SAFRAN SA ANHEUSER-BUSCH I ANHEUSER-BUSCH I 29% 1 SAFRAN SA -3.17% 2 ENGIE ADIDAS AG SAINT GOBAIN 21% 2 L'OREAL -1.76% 3 ORANGE DEUTSCHE BANK-RG UNIBAIL-RODAMCO 21% 3 LVMH MOET HENNE -0.89% 4 KONINKLIJKE PHIL AXA ING GROEP NV 20% 4 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 0.95% 5 IBERDROLA SA ING GROEP NV SIEMENS AG-REG 20% 5 AIR LIQUIDE SA 2.23% 6 LVMH MOET HENNE ASML HOLDING NV SANOFI 20% 6 VIVENDI 2.75% 7 ENEL SPA BANCO SANTANDER AXA 20% 7 ENI SPA 4.51% 8 ENI SPA SANOFI FRESENIUS SE & C 19% 8 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 5.09% 9 SAP SE SOC GENERALE SA TELEFONICA 18% 9 BAYER MOTOREN WK 5.09% 10 TOTAL SA DEUTSCHE POST -RG BAYER AG-REG 18% 10 ESSILOR INTL 5.74% Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index 11

12 1875 FINANCE OFFICES & CONTACT OFFICES 1875 CIO OFFICE CONTACTS GENEVA 1875 FINANCE (Geneva) Rue du 31 Décembre, 40 Case postale Geneva 6 T: ZURICH 1875 FINANCE (Zürich) Bleicherweg 7 PO Box 8027 Zürich T: +41 (44) Loïc SCHMID Chief Investment Officer (CIO) T +41 (0) lschmid@1875.ch Jean-Alexandre MERY Advisory team T +41 (0) jamery@1875.ch LUXEMBOURG 1875 FINANCE (Luxembourg) Bd. Prince Henri 41 L-1724 Luxembourg T: HONG KONG 1875 FINANCE (HK) Limited Kinwick Centre, 32 Hollywood Road Central, Hong Kong T: Louis SOOTS Advisory team T +41 (0) lsoots@1875.ch To subscribe or be removed from the mailing list click on link >>> <<< 12

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