Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Economic & Capital Market Review

Transcription

1 Summit Strategies Group 8182 Maryland Avenue, 6th Floor St. Louis, Missouri Economic & ital Market Review

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Key Highlights 1 Economic Perspective 2 Assets 5 Income Assets 10 Diversification Assets 15 Investment Themes 21 ital Market Assumptions 22 Relative Performance 27 Universe Analysis 44 50

3 Economic & ital Market Review HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE QUARTER assets continued to perform well: Global equity indices reached new all-time highs (MSCI ACWI IMI, +5.3%), supported by gains across all major markets. Continued strong sales and earnings growth, high consumer and business confidence, and ongoing central bank accommodation acted as tailwinds for equity markets. Emerging markets (MSCI, +7.9%) outperformed other major equity regions, benefiting from currency appreciation and strengthening economic growth. International markets (ACWI ex US, +6.) continued to outperform domestic (Russell 3000, +4.) for the quarter. Income assets generated moderate gains: Consistent with lower yields, fixed income gains have slowed. However, bond market performance remained positive during the quarter (Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate, +0.9%). The 10-year Treasury ended September yielding 2.33%, up 3 bps from the end of June. Yields increased modestly across the curve throughout the quarter. Credit continued to outperform treasuries as credit spreads tightened to their lowest levels since the financial crisis. Diversifying assets were generally positive as well: Commodity prices increased, driven by the energy and industrial metals sectors. Long treasuries earned their coupon as yields were mostly unchanged, while TIPS benefitted from lower real yields. 1

4 Yield to Maturity Sep-65 Sep-69 Sep-73 Sep-77 Sep-81 Sep-85 Sep-89 Sep-93 Economic Perspective Economy The third quarter of 2017 was characterized by the continuation of economic and market trends that have been in place throughout Global equity indices reached new all-time highs, supported by gains across all major markets. The US Federal Reserve announced it will begin reducing its $3.5 trillion balance sheet in October, supported by overall continued strength in the labor market. While the Fed s balance sheet reduction and future interest rate hikes are anticipated to be gradual, they are occurring at a time when other major central banks are also likely to begin tightening monetary policy. The labor market continued to strengthen during the third quarter, as the US economy added 274,000 jobs over the period. The unemployment rate fell to 4., its lowest level since Of note, however, is that the US economy did experience negative job growth for the first time in seven years during September following the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Real GDP grew at a 3.1% annualized rate during the second quarter of 2017 according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in real GDP from 1. in the first quarter reflected positive changes in consumer and government spending, business investment, and exports. The Atlanta Federal Reserve currently projects 2.8% GDP growth for the third quarter, down from estimates near earlier in the quarter, partly as a result of hurricane-related effects. Economic activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to expand in the third quarter. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 60.8, its highest level since May 2004, while the Non- Manufacturing (or services) PMI grew to Manufacturing has now been a boost to US growth for 13 consecutive months, while services have expanded for 93 consecutive months. Yield Curve The spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries tightened 8 bps to 137 bps during the quarter and remains below its 20-year average of 191 bps. Over the past two years the 2-30 spread has tightened by 82 bps, as the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates while long-term yields remain anchored % 3% 1% -1% Unemployment Rate 4. Treasury Yield Curve 2.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% bps +3 bps +3 bps Years to Maturity June 30, 2017 September 30, 2016 Quarterly Change Source: Bloomberg 2.9% 2.8% 2.3%

5 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Economic Perspective 8% Real GDP (YoY) 1 Unemployment Rate Manufacturing Strength Real GDP (YoY) 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev x 2.3% % Unemployment Rate 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev 20-Year Avg x % Manufacturing Strength 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Leading Economic Indicator (YoY) 8% Coincident Economic Indicator (YoY) 8% Lagging Economic Indicator (YoY) Leading Economic Indicator (YoY) Rolling 10-Yr Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev x % % -1 Coincident Economic Indicator (YoY) Rolling 10-Yr Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev x 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% % Lagging Economic Indicator (YoY) 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev 2. x 2.1% 2.1% 120 Consumer Confidence Consumer Price Index (YoY, Headline) 8% Federal Funds Target Rate Consumer Confidence 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev 3% 87.7 x 2.1% x % 1.7% -1% - -3% CPI (YoY) 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev - - Fed Funds Target Rate Rolling 10-Yr Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev x % 0. 3 Source: Bloomberg

6 Economic Perspective Slope of the Yield Curve (10YR-2YR) Credit Spreads (Barclays Intermediate BBB-AA) 3% 1% 1.7% % 1% 1.3% % -1% - -3% Slope of the Yield Curve (10YR-2YR) 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev -1% - -3% BBB - AA 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Dollar Spot Index (vs. 6 Currencies) Dollar Spot Index (vs. 6 Currencies) 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Oil Price 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Oil Price Equity Returns ( Annualized Returns) x 26.8% % Fixed Income Returns (Barclays Aggregate Annualized Returns) Fixed Income Returns 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Equity Returns 10-Yr Rolling Avg +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev - x % 4 Source: Bloomberg

7 Assets Public Equities Strong global equity market performance continued during the third quarter. Emerging markets were the best performers (MSCI, +7.9%) and international outperformed domestic (MSCI ACWI ex US, +6., Russell 3000, +4.), as international earnings growth has outpaced domestic. Master limited partnerships (MLPs) returned -3. for the third quarter. Year-todate, distribution yields have risen 60 bps to 7.7%. Of note this quarter Alerian updated its MLP index methodology to incorporate a 1 cap on individual securities, impacting two securities that previously exceeded 1 weights. Public Debt High yield bonds gained 2. during the quarter. Spreads continued to tighten, declining 17 bps to 347 bps. Spreads have tightened by 62 bps year-to-date and remain below their 20-year average of 510 bps. Local currency emerging market debt returned 3., benefitting from currency appreciation and improving emerging market growth forecasts. Emerging market debt performance has been strong year-to-date, returning 14.3% as emerging market fundamentals continue to improve. Private Assets Fundraising slowed in Q3 2017, as Preqin estimates total commitments of $96M versus $137M for the second quarter. Of note is that the largest private equity fund in history was raised during the quarter, a sign that investors continue to aggressively allocate to the private markets. This increase in capital has caused LBO purchase price multiples to rise above 10x EBITDA. Leverage multiples have increased to over 5.5x EBTIDA in 2017, following a decline in We continue to see robust demand for private debt funds, as momentum increased in Q This ongoing demand from investors has helped support higher leverage levels and kept a ceiling in place for average loan spreads. Hedge Funds Risk parity strategies gained in the third quarter, with gains spread across asset classes. Equity allocations generated the largest gains, followed by commodities. Nominal and inflation-linked bond exposures were nominally positive as well. hedge funds gained in the third quarter, with the largest gains in long/short equity. Event-driven strategies such as activist investing, distressed debt, and merger arbitrage also contributed. 5 MSCI ACWI IMI 2.1% 1 Month 5.3% 3 Months 18.7% 1 Year 2.1% Russell % Russell % Russell % 15.1% Russell 1000 Russell 2000 Russell 2000 Russell % 5.9% 21.9% % 20.7% 7.1% 5.1% MSCI ACWI ex US 1.9% MSCI MSCI % 2.9% % -0. MSCI 7.9% % Alerian MLP % 0.9% Blmbg. Barc. High Yield % JPM GBI- Global Div. Risk Parity HFRI Equity Hedge -0.3% % -0.3% 3.3% 5.9% % Note: All returns are USD.

8 Assets ANNUALIZED ONE-, FIVE-, AND TEN-YEAR RETURNS MSCI ACWI IMI % Russell % Russell % 18. Russell % % Russell % 15.3% 21.9% Russell % 13.8% 20.7% Russell % 13.3% 20. Russell % 21. MSCI ACWI ex US 1.3% MSCI 1.3% % MSCI % 21.8% MSCI 1.3% Alerian MLP -3.7% % Blmbg. Barc. High Yield % N/A JPM GBI- Global Div. -0.9% 3.8% 7.3% Risk Parity HFRI Equity Hedge 2.9% 4.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 11.1% 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year % 2 3 6

9 Annual Rate of Return Annual Rate of Return Assets ASSET CLASS RISK/RETURN PERFORMANCE Years Ending MSCI SC MSCI ACWI IMI Russell 2000 Barclays High Yield HFRI Equity Hedge Risk Parity MSCI MSCI Alerian MLP JPM GBI- Global Diversified - 8% Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) 1 8% 10 Years Ending Barclays High Yield Russell 2000 Risk Parity Alerian MLP HFRI Equity Hedge JPM GBI- Global Diversified MSCI ACWI IMI MSCI MSCI SC MSCI Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) 7

10 Correlation to MSCI ACWI IMI Correlation to MSCI ACWI IMI Assets ASSET CLASS CORRELATION TO MSCI ACWI IMI Years Ending MSCI ACWI IMI MSCI HFRI Equity Hedge MSCI SC Barclays High Yield Risk Parity MSCI Russell JPM GBI- Global Diversified Alerian MLP Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) Years Ending HFRI Equity Hedge Barclays High Yield MSCI ACWI IMI MSCI MSCI SC Russell 2000 MSCI 0.7 Risk Parity JPM GBI- Global Diversified 0.6 Alerian MLP Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns)

11 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Operating EPS: Rolling 4-Qtr Assets MARKET CHARTS $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 Operating Earnings Rolling 4-Quarter, Actual and Estimated Operating Margin: Trailing 1-Year (R) Operating EPS: Estimates, Bottom-Up (L) Operating EPS: Actual (L) 91.5 Mar '17: % Operating Margin: Trailing 1-Year Purchasing Managers' Index 60.8 US manufacturing demand is at its highest level in years, supported by higher domestic and international growth; a reading over 50 implies expansion. $0 30 ISM Manufacturing PMI (US) Source: Standard & Poor s Source: Institute for Supply Management Operating margins remain near cyclical highs; analysts maintain a very positive outlook for US earnings Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 1 Real GDP (YoY) % Emerging US 4.9% Developed (G7) 1.8% Year Average Source: International Monetary Fund Economic growth remains positive, but long-run expectations for future growth are muted. Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg Economic data releases have generally been in line with expectations over the past year; an index reading of 0 means data releases have met analyst expectations. 9

12 Income Assets Public Debt The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate gained 0.8% during the quarter. The longest duration portions of the Index outperformed as yields along the long end of the curve declined modestly and lower-quality outperformed higher quality issues. International bonds returned 2. for the quarter, with international outperformance over domestic fixed income predominately driven by declines in the dollar against foreign currencies. Public bank loans, as measured by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, returned 1.1% for the quarter. The trailing 12-month default rate in loans has remained relatively constant year-todate at 1.3%, approximately in line with forecasts. Recovery rates have averaged 67% year-to-date compared to 63% in Relative Hedge Funds Relative value hedge funds performed well during the quarter, with gains spread across strategies. Equity market neutral funds led performance, followed by credit-related strategies and relative value volatility. Blmbg. Barc. US Aggregate Blmbg. Barc. US Universal Blmbg. Barc. US Government Blmbg. Barc. US Govt/Credit Blmbg. Barc. US Corporate Blmbg. Barc. US MBS Blmbg. Barc. US Credit Blmbg. Barc. Global Aggregate % % -1.3% 0.8% 0.1% % 1.3% % 1.3% % 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year Real Estate real estate returns for the third quarter of 2017 were 1.9% gross and 1. net, bringing the one-year gain for core funds to 6.7%. Strong but declining gains in the commercial real estate market have been supported by the US cyclical expansion, with strong labor market growth fueling demand while supply remains limited. In recent quarters price appreciation has slowed compared to prior in the expansion, with a larger percentage of real estate gains now being generated through income. -1.3% Blmbg. Barc. Global Agg. ex US Credit Suisse Leveraged Loans 1.1% HFRI Equity Market Neutral N/A NCREIF ODCE %

13 Income Assets ANNUALIZED ONE-, FIVE-, AND TEN-YEAR RETURNS Blmbg. Barc. US Aggregate Blmbg. Barc. US Universal 0.1% % % 4. 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year Blmbg. Barc. US Government % 3. Blmbg. Barc. US Govt/Credit % 4.3% Blmbg. Barc. US Corporate % Blmbg. Barc. US MBS 0.3% % Blmbg. Barc. US Credit Blmbg. Barc. Global Aggregate -1.3% % Blmbg. Barc. Global Agg. ex US % 2. Credit Suisse Leveraged Loans HFRI Equity Market Neutral 1.9% NCREIF ODCE 4.1% 6.7% % 3% 9% 1 11

14 Annual Rate of Return Annual Rate of Return Income Assets ASSET CLASS RISK/RETURN PERFORMANCE Years Ending NCREIF ODCE 8% HFRI Equity Market Neutral CS Leveraged Loans US MBS US Universal US Corp US Credit US US Gov/Cred Agg US Gov't Global Agg - Global Agg ex-us 1% 3% 7% 8% Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) 10 Years Ending US Corp US Universal US Credit NCREIF ODCE US MBS US Agg US Gov/Cred US Gov't CS Leveraged Loans 3% HFRI Equity Market Neutral Global Agg Global Agg ex-us 1% 12 8% 1 1 Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns)

15 Correlation to Barclays Aggregate Correlation to Barclays Aggregate Income Assets ASSET CLASS CORRELATION TO BARCLAYS AGGREGATE Years Ending US Agg US Gov/Cred US Credit US Gov't US MBS US Corp US Universal Global Agg 0.4 Global Agg ex-us HFRI Equity Market Neutral CS Leveraged Loans NCREIF ODCE % Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) 1.0 US Agg 10 Years Ending US Gov/Cred US Universal US Credit 0.8 US MBS US Gov't US Corp Global Agg Global Agg ex-us HFRI Equity Market Neutral CS Leveraged Loans NCREIF ODCE % 1 Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns)

16 Jun-87 Jun-89 Jun-91 Jun-93 Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Sep-93 Sep-95 Income Assets MARKET CHARTS The spread between core plus and core fixed income has declined to post-crisis lows Spread (bps) 5-Year Average Plus vs Fixed Income Spreads have narrowed across credit qualities. 18% 1 1 9% High Yield OAS AAA Corp OAS AA Corp OAS A Corp OAS BBB Corp OAS Global OAS Barclays ital Option Adjusted Spreads 15 3% 0 Source: Barclays 3% 1% 10-Year Implied Inflation Implied Inflation 10 Year Treasury 10 Year TIPS 2.3% 1.9% 0. Long-term inflation expectations remain below the Federal Reserve s target Wages: YoY Percent Change Employment Cost Index: Wages Average Hourly Earnings % Wage growth has increased from very low levels. As the labor market continues to tighten, wage growth should continue to rise. -1% - 0. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. Commercial real estate cap rates have declined to their lowest levels of the past 30 years % Real Estate Rates vs. Bond Yields Barclays Agg Yield Rate Home prices continue to rise closer to 2006 peak levels S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20-City Home Price Index % Source: S&P Case-Shiller Composite 20-Home Price Index NSA 14 Source: Bloomberg, NCREIF.

17 Diversification Assets Inflation TIPS returned 0.9% during the third quarter, with gains predominately being driven by rising inflation expectations. At the end of the third quarter market-implied 10-year inflation expectations were 1.8, below their 20-year average of 1.98%. Deflation Long treasuries were the best-performing sector of government fixed income for the quarter as a result of carry, returning 0.. The 30-year Treasury ended the quarter yielding 2.8%, a decline of 28 bps from the end of Cash returns have increased but remain low, with 90-day T-Bills offering 26 bps for the quarter and 64 bps over the past year. Blmbg. Barc. US TIPS Blmbg. Barc. US Treasury Blmbg. Barc. Treasury Blmbg. Barc. Long Treasury 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year % -0.9% -1.7% % % % 0. Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Index increased during the third quarter, returning 2.. Gains for the quarter were largely driven by strong performance from the energy and industrial metals sectors. Livestock was the worst-performing sector for the quarter, driven by poor performance of lean hogs which returned -38.9%. Bloomberg Commodity CS Managed Futures HF % -0.1% -0.3% 1.3% 2. Tactical Trading Tactical trading hedge funds performed well in the third quarter, with strong performance from discretionary global macro. Managed futures strategies also contributed modestly. CS Global Macro HF 90 Day US T-Bill 0.1% 1.8% 0.09% %

18 Diversification Assets ANNUALIZED ONE-, FIVE-, AND TEN-YEAR RETURNS Blmbg. Barc. US TIPS -0.7% % Blmbg. Barc. US Treasury -1.7% % Blmbg. Barc. Treasury -0.7% % Blmbg. Barc. Long Treasury % 6.9% Bloomberg Commodity % -0.3% CS Managed Futures HF % CS Global Macro HF % Day US T-Bill Year 5 Year 10 Year % - -3% 3% 9% 1 16

19 Annual Rate of Return Diversification Assets ASSET CLASS RISK/RETURN PERFORMANCE 5 Years Ending CS Global Macro HF Long Treasury rn tu e R f o te - a l R a u - n A - Interm. Treasury 90 Day US T-Bill US Treasury US TIPS CS Managed Futures HF -8% -1 8% Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) 8% - CS Global Macro HF US Treasury US TIPS Interm. Treasury 90 Day US T-Bill 10 Years Ending Long Treasury CS Managed Futures HF - - Bloomberg Commodity 17-8% 8% % 2 Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns)

20 Correlation to 6 MSCI ACWI IMI/4 Barclays Agg Correlation to 6 MSCI ACWI IMI/4 Barclays Agg Diversification Assets ASSET CLASS CORRELATION TO 6 MSCI ACWI IMI/4 BARCLAYS AGGREGATE Years Ending CS/T Global Macro HF US TIPS Bloomberg Commodity Day US T-Bill Interm. Treasury CS/T Managed Futures HF 0.0 US Treasury Long Treasury % Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns) Years Ending CS/T Global Macro HF Bloomberg Commodity US TIPS 90 Day US T-Bill US Treasury Interm. Treasury CS/T Managed Futures HF Long Treasury % Risk (Standard Deviation of Annualized Quarterly Returns)

21 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep % of GDP Diversification Assets MARKET CHARTS 0.50 Rolling 3-Yr Correlation: MSCI ACWI IMI and Blmbg Barc. US Agg. 140 Government Debt/GDP The three-year correlation between stocks and bonds is near its historical average Advanced economies (G7) Emerging economies Debt burdens in advanced economies are over 10 of GDP but are expected to decline; emerging economies are expected to maintain a debt level of near 4 of GDP. 20 Source: Bloomberg. 250 Commodities: Including and Excluding Petroleum Source: International Monetary Fund 70 Equity Volatility (VIX) 60 Commodity prices have bounced from low levels, led by the energy sector Bloomberg Commodity Index Bloomberg Commodity Index ex-petroleum Equity market volatility remains low, particularly compared to the existing level of political and economic uncertainty VIX Index 5-Year Average Source: Bloomberg St. Louis Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index 230 Fixed Income Volatility Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange According to the STLFSI, financial market stress is currently below-average; a reading of 0 indicates average market stress MOVE Index 52.9 Bond market volatility also remains muted. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Source: Merill Lynch, Barclays 19

22 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-87 Sep-89 Sep-91 Sep-93 Sep-95 > 0.5 Indicates Higher Volatility (Puts) Expected Sep-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 > 0.5 Indicates Puts Favored Over Calls Diversification Assets MARKET SKEW CBOE Put/Call Ratio Equity P/C Ratio 50 Day M.A. 200 Day M.A Year Credit Default Swaps Spreads France (USD) Germany (USD) Spain (USD) Italy (USD) Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange 0.5 is neutral; investors are more inclined to buy downside protection than they were one year ago, as suggested by the 50-day moving average. Source: Bloomberg Sovereign spreads remain tight, particularly compared to 2012 levels CBOE VIX Put/Call Ratio VIX Put/Call Ratio 50 Day M.A. 200 Day M.A. $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 Gold Spot $/oz $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $1, $ $ $400 $200 $0 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange Source: Bloomberg 0.5 is neutral; on average investors purchases of volatilty puts and calls have not changed dramatically. After falling for much of the past three years, gold prices have risen recently as short-term interest rates remain low and political risk has increased. 20

23 Investment Themes INVESTMENT THES: LOOKING FORWARD What We Believe Equity market valuations, particularly in the US, remain elevated. Short- to medium-term global growth prospects are positive given the broad-based nature of the cyclical upswing. High levels of uncertainty (central bank, political, economic, etc.) persist, while realized and implied market volatility remains low. What Investors Should Do Favor conservative positioning over aggressive returnseeking given current valuations. Within equity, tilt towards emerging and international developed markets. With lower expected asset class returns going forward, emphasize active management in less efficient markets. Income Muted returns for most fixed income assets as yields remain below historical levels. Credit spreads have compressed despite levels of corporate debt-to-gdp at cyclical highs. Favor return sources that diversify away from duration without significant credit risk (i.e. relative value hedge funds, unconstrained fixed income). Size these allocations appropriately given significant tracking error vs. core fixed income. Diversification The cost of holding diversifying assets has declined given high equity valuations and low bond yields. Maintain equity diversification (tactical trading strategies) and fixed income diversification (commodities, TIPS) for portfolio balance and hedging qualities. 21

24 ital Market Assumptions SUMMARY Asset Class Returns and Standard Deviations June 30, 2017 Expected Standard Expected Standard Manager The capital market assumptions section summarizes changes to Summit s longterm strategic capital market assumptions (Summit s full assumptions document is updated annually). While these assumptions are long-term by definition (one would not expect them to change frequently), there are times when market fundamentals move dramatically, thereby altering the long-term expected performance for certain asset classes. The pages that follow provide brief supporting documentation for each of the asset classes in the table. For a complete rationale (for all assumptions) please refer to Summit s annual ital Market Assumption publication (available at Asset Class Return Deviation Return Deviation Excess Return Inflation (CPI) GROWTH: International International Emerging Markets Master Limited Partnerships (MLP) Private Equity Hedge Funds High Yield Emerging Market Debt Convertibles Private Debt Non- Real Estate Public Real Estate (REITs) Risk Parity INCOME: Governments Corporates Mortgages (Agency) Intermediate Fixed Income Fixed Income Plus Fixed Income Long Gov/Credit Fixed Income International Fixed Income Public Bank Loans Private Bank Loans Relative Hedge Funds Real Estate DIVERSIFICATION: Cash TIPS Long Treasuries Commodities Tactical Trading Diversified Hedge Funds

25 10-Year Expected Return ital Market Assumptions ASSET CLASS EXPECTED RETURN AND RISK 9% 8% 7% MLPs Private Equity Risk Parity Private Debt Priv. Bank Loans ACWI Def. Equity Debt HF RE SC Rel. Val. HF Tactical Trading Hedge FoF High Yield Bank Loans Commodities Unconstrained F.I Sharpe Equity 3% Cash + TIPS Int'l Long Treasuries Valuation Illiquid 23 1% Risk Premia Standard Deviation Over long periods of time broad asset classes have achieved a Sharpe Ratio of roughly Based on Summit s ital Market Assumptions, asset classes or strategies that appear to offer outsized absolute or risk-adjusted returns can be categorized into four main categories: 1. Valuation: Current prices compared to fundamentals suggest relatively high prospective returns. 2. Illiquid: Extended lock-up periods allow investors access to premia unavailable in public markets. Portfolio 3. Portfolio: Diversification benefits from combining multiple asset classes or strategies into a single portfolio. 4. Risk Premia: Strategies employ leverage, have the ability to short, and/or are able to access unique risk premia unavailable in public markets.

26 Yield to Maturity ital Market Assumptions FIXED INCOME 18% % Yield as an Estimate of Future Returns Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Yield to Worst Return Over Next 10 Years 18% % Barclays Aggregate Historical Yields 10-Year Treasury Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. 24 Expected Return Option-Adjusted Spread Asset Class 9/30/2017 6/30/2017 9/30/2017 6/30/2017 CPI n/a n/a High Yield Emerging Market Debt n/a n/a Convertibles n/a n/a Governments Corporates Mortgages (Agency) Intermediate Fixed Income Fixed Income Plus Fixed Income Long Gov/Credit Fixed Income International Fixed Income Cash n/a n/a TIPS n/a n/a 3% 1% Yield Curves Dashed Lines: Yields as of 9/30/16 Treasury A BBB Years to Maturity

27 ital Market Assumptions EQUITY 9/30/2017 US US International International Emerging Markets Dividend Yield Real EPS Change in P/E Ratio Inflation Total Global Market italization Domestic $26 Trillion Global $50.2 Trillion International $24.3 Trillion US 13% Emerging Markets 11% Emerging Markets 2 US 87% Int'l Developed 37% Domestic 5 Int'l 11% Int'l 6 25

28 ital Market Assumptions ALTERNATIVES GROWTH Return Premium Expected Private Equity = 8.2 Expected Sharpe Ratio Cash Vol-Adj Excess Returns Hedge Funds = 5.2 High Yield Return Premium Private Debt = 7.0 Distribution Yield Distribution Valuation Master Limited Partnerships = 8.7 Current Rate Illiquidity Premium Leverage Adjustment Non- Real Estate = 7.0 Current Yield Valuation Public Real Estate (REITs) = 5.2 INCOME Expected Sharpe Ratio Cash Risk-Adj Beta Exposure Risk Parity = 7.0 Public Bank Loans Return Premium Private Bank Loans = 6.2 Expected Sharpe Ratio Cash Vol-Adj Excess Returns Relative Hedge Funds = 5.0 Current Rate Valuation Leverage Adjustment Real Estate = 5.7 DIVERSIFICATION Cash Return Premium Commodities = 4.7 Expected Sharpe Ratio Cash Vol-Adj Excess Returns Tactical Trading = 5.2 Expected Sharpe Ratio Cash Vol-Adj Excess Returns Diversified Hedge Funds =

29 YTD 2017 Q Yr ROR 20 Yr ROR 74.8% 8.1% % % % % 55.8% % % 7.8% % 13.7% 5.7% 31.7% 27.8% 7.9% 9.1% % 2.7% % % % 11.8% % % 38.8% % 20.7% % 1.3% % 20.3% % % 20.7% 7.1% % % % 7.8% 7.3% 18.9% % % % 5.3% % -28.9% % % % 16.8% 5.7% 7.8% % % 21.3% % % -33.8% 31.9% 16.7% 2.1% 16.3% % % 17.1% -1.8% 25.8% % % % 4.7% 15.8% % % % 10.9% 5.1% 7.1% % % 12.7% 1.9% % % 29.8% 11.1% % -2.9% 15.8% 22.8% % % % % % % 4.1% 11.9% 1.9% % % % % 4.3% % % % -22.1% 28.7% 6.3% 2.7% 9.1% % 7.8% % % 5.7% % 5.1% % % % % 4.1% 4.3% % % % % 3.1% 0.8% 1.3% % -7.3% % % 2.1% % -53.3% % % % -14.9% % 1.3% 4. Best Performing Worst Performing CALENDAR YEAR PERFORMANCE COMPARISON Relative Performance

30 Relative Performance EQUITY STYLE SECTOR PERFORMANCE COMPARISON: CURRENT QUARTER SMALL, MID, AND LARGE CAP Financials Health Care Utilities S&P 400 MID CAP S&P 600 SMALL CAP -1.7% % 4.8% 3.7% 5.9% 2.9% Consumer Discretionary 0.8% 1.9% 3.7% Consumer Staples -1.3% % Energy 6.8% 9.3% 11. Information Technology 4.9% 6.7% 8. Materials Telecommunication Services % Industrials % Real Estate -0.9% 0.9% 2.8% Note: Real Estate was added to the GICS Sector Composite on September 30, 2016.

31 Relative Performance EQUITY STYLE SECTOR PERFORMANCE COMPARISON: 1-YEAR SMALL, MID, AND LARGE CAP Financials Health Care S&P 400 MID CAP S&P 600 SMALL CAP % 28.1% Utilities % Consumer Discretionary % 17. Consumer Staples 0.3% % Energy Information Technology 28.9% % Materials 21.3% % Telecommunication Services % 19.9% Industrials Real Estate -0.08% 7.39% Note: Real Estate was added to the GICS Sector Composite on September 30, 2016.

32 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: US LARGE CAP CORE TO SMALL CAP CORE 4 vs. Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R1000 Outperform 2 1 vs. Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R1000 Outperform R2000 Outperform -1-1 R2000 Outperform 1.5 / Relative P/E Ratio (R1000 vs R2000) LC Overvalued Relative to SC 3 vs. Recent Historical Performance Russell 1000 Russell % L-S Rel PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev LC Undervalued Relative to SC x % 13.8% Year 3-Year 5-Year 30

33 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: LARGE CAP VALUE TO LARGE CAP GROWTH 6 4 vs. Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R1000V Outperform vs. Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R1000V Outperform R1000G Outperform -1-1 R1000G Outperform / Relative P/E Ratio (R1000V vs R1000G) LV-LG Rel PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev LC Overvalued Relative to LC % vs. Recent Historical Performance Russell 1000 Russell x % % % LC Undervalued Relative to LC 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 31

34 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: SMALL CAP VALUE TO SMALL CAP GROWTH vs. Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R2000V Outperform 3 2 vs. Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R2000V Outperform R2000G Outperform -1-2 R2000G Outperform / Relative P/E Ratio (R2000V vs R2000G) SV-SG Rel PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev SC Overvalued Relative to SC x vs. Recent Historical Performance 12.1% 12. Russell 2000 Russell % 14.3% SC Undervalued Relative to SC 1 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 32

35 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: DOMESTIC EQUITY TO DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL EQUITY 4 Domestic Equity vs. Developed International Equity Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R3000 Outperform 2 1 Domestic Equity vs. Developed International Equity Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) R3000 Outperform MSCI Outperform -1-1 MSCI Outperform Domestic/International Relative P/E Ratio (R3000 vs MSCI ) Dom/Intl Relative PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Domestic Overvalued Relative to International x % Domestic Equity vs. Developed International Equity Recent Historical Performance 19.1% 10.7% 14. Russell 3000 MSCI Domestic Undervalued Relative to International 5. 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 33

36 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: INTERNATIONAL VALUE TO INTERNATIONAL GROWTH 4 3 International vs. International Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) MSCI V Outperform 1 1 International vs. International Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) MSCI V Outperform 2 8% MSCI G Outperform -8% MSCI G Outperform Intl /Intl Relative P/E Ratio (MSCI V vs G) Intl Overvalued Relative to Intl International vs. International Recent Historical Performance MSCI MSCI V-G Rel PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Intl Undervalued Relative to Intl x % % 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 8.9% 34

37 Annualized Return Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: INTERNATIONAL LARGE CAP TO INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP 2 International vs. International Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/06-09/17) MSCI Outperform International vs. International Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/08-09/17) MSCI Outperform MSCI SC Outperform -1 MSCI SC Outperform Intl /Intl Relative P/E Ratio (MSCI vs SC) Developed/Int Relative PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Intl Overvalued Relative to Intl Intl Undervalued Relative to Intl 0.87 x International Equity vs. International Equity Recent Historical Performance 19.1% 21.8% % MSCI MSCI 8. 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 12.8% 35

38 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL TO ERGING MARKETS 6 Developed Intl Equity vs. Emerging Markets Equity Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) MSCI Outperform 2 Developed Intl Equity vs. Emerging Markets Equity Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) MSCI Outperform MSCI Emerging Outperform -2 MSCI Emerging Outperform Intl Developed/Emerging Relative P/E Ratio (MSCI vs ) Intl Developed Overvalued Relative to Emerging 3 2 Developed International Equity vs. Emerging Equity Recent Historical Performance 22. MSCI MSCI x % Developed/Emerging Relative PE 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Intl Developed Undervalued Relative to Emerging % Year 3-Year 5-Year 36

39 Sep-77 Sep-81 Sep-85 Sep-89 Sep-93 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-93 Sep-95 Sep-77 Sep-81 Sep-85 Sep-89 Sep-93 Relative Performance CURRENCY OVERVIEW 130 US Dollar Index: Weighted Avg of 6 Currencies vs US Dollar 0.9 British Pound/US Dollar $ Appreciating $ Depreciating $ Appreciating $ Depreciating Japanese Yen/US Dollar 1.1 Euro/US Dollar $ Depreciating $ Appreciating $ Depreciating $ Appreciating

40 Sep-87 Sep-89 Sep-91 Sep-93 Sep-95 Sep-93 Sep-95 Yield to Maturity Yield to Maturity Relative Performance YIELD CURVE AND SPREAD ANALYSIS Treasury Yield Curve 4. Treasury Forward Curves 3% 1% 1.9% 1.9% % 2.3% % 2.8% 2.3% % +5 bps +3 bps +3 bps Years to Maturity June 30, 2017 September 30, 2016 Quarterly Change Yr Fwd 3 Yr Fwd 5 Yr Fwd 10 Yr Fwd Years to Maturity 3% History of the Treasury Yield Curve Difference Between 30-Year & 2-Year Yields 18% 1 1 High Yield OAS AAA Corp OAS AA Corp OAS A Corp OAS BBB Corp OAS Global OAS Barclays ital Option Adjusted Spreads 1% % 3% -1% 38

41 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: STOCKS VS. BONDS 6 Outperform Stocks vs. Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) 3 Stocks vs. Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Outperform Barclays Aggregate Outperform -2 Barclays Aggregate Outperform Fed Model ( P/E vs 1/10YR Treasury Yield) Stocks Overvalued Relative to Stocks vs. Recent Historical Performance Blmbg Barclays Agg Fed Model 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Stocks Undervalued Relative to x % 2.7% 2.1% 0.1% 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 39

42 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: CORPORATE BONDS VS. TREASURIES 3 Barclays Corporate Outperform Corporates vs. Treasuries Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) 8% Corporates vs. Treasuries Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Barclays Treasury Outperform - 7% 3% 1% Corporate Option Adjusted Spreads (Barclays Corp) Corporate OAS 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Corporate Spreads Historically Wide 1. x 1.3% Corporates vs. Treasuries Recent Historical Performance 4.1% % - Corporate Spreads Historically Tight % Barclays Corporate Barclays US Treasury 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 40

43 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: MORTGAGES VS. TREASURIES 1 Barclays MBS Outperform Mortgages vs. Treasuries Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Mortgages vs. Treasuries Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Barclays MBS Outperform 1% - -1% -1 Barclays Treasury Outperform - Barclays Treasury Outperform Mortgage Option Adjusted Spreads (Barclays MBS) Mortgage Spreads 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev Mortgage Spreads Historically Wide Mortgage Spreads Historically Tight x % -1.7% Mortgages vs. Treasuries Recent Historical Performance Barclays Mortgage Barclays US Treasury Year 3-Year 5-Year 41

44 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: HIGH YIELD BONDS VS. TREASURIES 8 6 Barclays High Yield Outperform High Yield vs. Treasuries Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) 2 1 High Yield vs. Treasuries Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Barclays High Yield Outperform % Barclays Treasury Outperform -8% -1 Barclays Treasury Outperform 2 1 High Yield Option Adjusted Spreads (Barclays ) High Yield Spreads 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev High Yield Spreads Wide vs. History 2 1 High Yield vs. Treasuries Recent Historical Performance Barclays High Yield Barclays US Treasury 1-5. x High Yield Spreads Tight vs. History 1-8.9% 5.8% % 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 42

45 Annualized Return Relative Performance HISTORICAL RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: DOMESTIC VS. INTERNATIONAL FIXED INCOME 3 2 Domestic Fixed Income vs. International Fixed Income Rolling 1-Year Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Barclays Aggregate Outperform 1 8% Domestic Fixed Income vs. International Fixed Income Rolling 5-Year Annualized Excess Return (09/97-09/17) Barclays Aggregate Outperform Barclays Global Agg ex-usd Outperform % Barclays Global Agg ex-usd Outperform % Intl Option Adjusted Spreads (Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD) International Spreads 10-Yr Rolling Median +/- 1 Std Dev +/- 2 Std Dev International Spreads Historically Wide 0. x % 3% 0.1% Domestic vs. International Recent Historical Performance 2.7% 0. Barclays Aggregate Barclays Global Aggregate ex USD 2.1% % International Spreads Historically Tight -3% Year 3-Year 5-Year 43

46 3. 1.3% 0.1% % % 0.8% % % % % % 19.1% 4.3% 4.8% % % 7.9% % 7.8% 10.3% 10.8% % 12.9% % % % 20.7% Universe Analysis MEDIAN UNIVERSE CORE MANAGER RETURNS VS. INDEX RETURNS 2 Median italization Equity Manager vs. 3 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Mgr Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Mgr Russell Median International Equity Manager vs. MSCI (net) 8% Median Fixed Income Manager vs. Barclays Aggregate Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Int'l Manager MSCI Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Fixed Mgr Barclays Aggregate 44 Source: PARis

47 5.8% % 5.1% % 8.8% % 9.1% % 12.1% % 14.8% 13.3% % 21.7% % 3.1% 5.9% 8.8% 9.1% 7.9% 7.1% 5.9% % % % 15.1% 13.8% % 20.7% 20.8% 21.9% 18. Universe Analysis MEDIAN UNIVERSE EQUITY STYLE MANAGER RETURNS VS. INDEX STYLE RETURNS 3 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Manager Russell 1000 Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Manager Russell 1000 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell 2000 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Median Manager Russell 2000 Median Manager Russell Source: PARis

48 Universe Analysis MEDIAN UNIVERSE EQUITY STYLE MANAGER ONE-YEAR RETURN DIFFERENTIAL: 10 YEARS Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell 1000 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell % % % % % % Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell 2000 Median italization Equity Manager vs. Russell % % % % % % % % % % % -8% % 1 46 Source: PARis

49 Universe Analysis UNIVERSE EQUITY STYLE MANAGERS 3 Equity Universe 3 Equity Universe Russell Qtr 2 Qtrs 3 Qtrs 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year - Russell Qtr 2 Qtrs 3 Qtrs 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 4 Equity Universe 3 Equity Universe Russell Qtr 2 Qtrs 3 Qtrs 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year - Russell Qtr 2 Qtrs 3 Qtrs 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 47 Source: PARis

50 DISCLOSURE Summit has prepared this presentation for the exclusive use by its intended audience. The information herein was obtained from various sources, which Summit believes to be reliable, and may contain opinions developed by Summit. Summit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the opinions, observations or other information contained in this report. The opinions, market commentary, portfolio holdings and characteristics are as of the date shown and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No graph, chart, or formula can, in and of itself, be used to determine which managers or investments to buy or sell. Any forward-looking projection contained herein is based on assumptions that Summit believes may be reasonable, but are subject to a wide range of risks, uncertainties and the possibility of loss. Accordingly, there is no assurance that any estimated performance figures will occur in the amounts and during the periods indicated, or at all. Actual results and performance will differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking projections. Any information contained in this report is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be an offer to buy or sell any securities, investment consulting or investment management. Private investments and hedge funds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled vehicles. Alternative investments may involve a substantial degree of risk, including the risk of total loss of an investor s capital and the use of leverage, and therefore may not be appropriate for all investors. Please keep in mind that liquidity may be limited and investors should review the Offering Memorandum, the Subscription Agreement and any other applicable documents. Summit does not provide legal or accounting advice to clients and all clients should consult with their own legal advisor and accountant regarding any potential strategy or investment, including the review of any Subscription Document, Offering Memorandum or Partnership Agreement. When shown, risk is defined as annualized standard deviation using monthly returns. Unless otherwise stated, any non-standard timeframes represent the longest period for which information is available. 48