A2A Investor Day Milan, 10 th April 2015

Transcription

1 A2A Investor Day Milan, 10 th April

2 1. FY 2014 Results 2. Strategic Plan Valerio Camerano CEO Andrea Crenna CFO 3. Closing Remarks Giovanni Valotti Chairman 4. Q&A 2 2

3 FY 2014 Results 3 3

4 Main achievements 2014 FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Corporate Governance simplification Organization progresses New Business Unit structure with greater responsibility Operating integration (Edipower, A2A Ambiente) People development (Gulliver Project, Futura2a, ) GOVERNANCE AND ORGANIZATION Further cost efficiency: - 24M fixed costs vs New-generation LED projects Environment development: glass treatment plant, Dispatching services market record volumes District heating western Milan pipeline completed OPERATIONS 4 4

5 Consolidated Results 2014 M ORDINARY GROUP NET INCOME* REVENUES -11% -10% 5,604 4, GROUP NET INCOME REPORTED EBITDA 1,133 1, NET FINANCIAL POSITION FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks +12% n.s * Excluding extraordinary items equal to 212M in 2014 and 94M in % ,874 3, EBITDA/ NFP 5 5

6 Group 2014 M EBITDA ,133 1, , FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks 2013 Reported Non-recurring Items 2013 Ordinary Provisions for redundancies Gener. & Trad. Energy Retail Environment District Heating Networks EPCG 2014 Ordinary Provisions for Mobility 2014 Reported Non-recurring Items 6 6

7 From EBITDA M to Group Net -207 Income , FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks 2014 EBITDA Reported Impairment of Assets D&A -57 Risk Provisions -147 Net Financial Expenses EBT Tax Minorities Group Net Income Reported

8 From Group Net Income to M % Ordinary Group Net Income FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks -37 Group Net Income Reported 2014 Write-down on assets Tax effect on impairment of Assets Taxes: effect of RHT Cancellation Capital gain and Disposal of Assets Group Net Income Ordinary 2014 Group Net Ordinary Income

9 Capex 2014 M BREAKDOWN BY ACTIVITY BREAKDOWN BY BUSINESS FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Development Maintenance Mandatory EPCG Corporate Networks District Heating Environment Energy

10 Net Free Cash Flow 2014 M , FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks 2014 EBITDA Reported Use of Funds Change in Net Working Capital Net Financial Expenses Tax FFO Paid Capex Free Cash Flow Dividends Net Free Cash Flow (1) Funds from operations after working capital change 10 10

11 Gross Debt and Net Financial Position 2014 M Fixed rate 85% 4,326 3, , , ,973 2,910 Fixed rate 85% Var. 15% Var. 15% FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Gross Financial Debt 2013 Cash and equivalents + Other Net Assets 2013 Net Financial Position 2013 Free Cash Flow 2014 Net Financial Position 2014 Cash and equivalents + Other Net Assets 2014 Gross Financial Debt 2014 Average debt maturity 5.7 years Average Average annual cost debt of maturity debt from % years to 3.9% Average annual cost of debt from 4.4% to 3.9% Bonds Loans NFP 11 11

12 Strategic Plan 12 12

13 Vision VISION Modern and multi-business utility, essential for future needs of local communities, leader in green economy, smart networks and new energy models FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks FROM Conventional energy Large-scale investments Reactivity, centralization Asset based Cost cutting Leveraged STRATEGIC PLAN TO Innovative energy and environment solutions Tailor-made solutions for community needs Proactivity, de-centralization People based Operational excellence Self-funding Develops most concrete opportunities and resolutely addresses present challenges starting an in-depth strategic re-positioning 13 13

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16 RESTRUCTURE RELAUNCH RESHAPE DISCIPLINE DIALOGUE DIGITAL 16 16

17 RESTRUCTURE Substantial reduction in thermoelectric power generation exposure 17 17

18 RELAUNCH Growth acceleration in environment, smart networks and energy services 18 18

19 RESHAPE Buying options in smart city and green economy 19 19

20 Discipline in operations and capital DISCIPLINE 20 20

21 Dialogue & engagement with key stakeholders DIALOGUE 21 21

22 Digital & technological transformation DIGITAL 22 22

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24 SIZEABLE Key highlights 2B cumulated Capex (~+40% vs ) INVESTMENTS STRONG EBITDA GROWTH 1.35B by 2019 (CAGR 5.8%) DOUBLE DIGIT ROI from ~8% in 2014* to >12% in 2019 FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks FURTHER DEBT REDUCTION REBALANCE BUSINESS MIX -0.8B in 5 years + environment, smart networks and new energy services DIVIDEND POLICY Growing and sustainable dividend policy * Excluding 2014 impairment effects 24 24

25 Strategic Plan Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital 25 25

26 R1 - Thermal plant restructure COST REDUCTION A DIFFERENT ASSET BASE - 100M of cumulated savings -3 GW capacity San Filippo and Brindisi plant reconversion Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital ONE CCGT COMPANY KEY PLAYER IN A NEW POWER MARKET A2A GenCo Gas creation 35M in increased CCGT flexibility to capture capacity market potential 26 26

27 -25% CCGT fixed cost reduction M -25% Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital 2014 cost Cost reduction 2019 cost LTSA contract renegotiation Plant management streamlined - 100M cumulated savings, 90% already secured Tangible results already in

28 -3 GW thermal capacity, CCGT flexibilization Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital GW A2A INSTALLED CAPACITY * 1.0* /12/ GW ** /12/2019 Other thermal and cogen. CCGT Coal Hydro+RES CCGT A2A PERFORMANCE EVOLUTION MW/ min. +92% Load gradient (avg) Start-up time from warm (avg.) Additional thermal capacity reduction (-40%) Top class in flexibility and energy management Reconversion of obsolete plants into RES/Environment plants % min. *Includes active plants temporarily mothballed/not dispatched due to non-economical conditions ** includes project under authorization process 28 28

29 Genco Gas creation CCGT CCGT Progressive integration of all CCGT assets into one business entity Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital CCGT Genco Gas Integration process according to different CCGT ownership structures CCGT 29 29

30 Key player in the forthcoming energy market Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital ITALIAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM EVOLUTION Installed Italy capacity reduction by 2019: -9 GW non-cogenerative CCGT -19 GW traditional thermal plants (mostly already inactive in 2014) Increase in flexibility, remunerated by capacity market Essentiality (must-run) charge reduction (e.g. Sicily) TOTAL IMPACT ON ITALIAN ELECTRICITY BILL B B E Room for reduction of the electricity bill Capacity market Interruptibility Capacity payment Must-run Capacity market compatible with system charge reduction CAPACITY MARKET IMPACT ON A2A PLANTS K/ MW Adequacy/ Flexibility Average figures on A2A total generation portfolio Remuneration differentiated by technology A2A estimates in line with foreign market evidence (e.g. UK auctions) Note: 2014 Italian system data forecast; 2019 figure, A2A internal estimate 30 30

31 R1: impact on EBITDA Strategic Plan Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure M + 148M -39 Thermal EBITDA Cost savings and plant conversions 73 Market margin evolution -6 Net impact between end of SFM essentiality and capacity market revenue increase Net contribution from the system 109 Thermal EBITDA 2019 CCGT ROI < -10% ~5% 31 31

32 Strategic Plan Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital 32 32

33 R2 - Relaunch of core business ENVIRONMENT SECTOR +20% waste collection +1 Mt waste treatment REGULATED BUSINESSES +18% district heating volumes +13% POD managed in gas distribution Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital ENERGY RETAIL MARKET EPCG 3x customer base in free market +4.0 TWh & +900 Mm 3 sold +14% electricity generation -18% FTE 33 33

34 Strong growth in Environment value chain BUSINESS SEGMENT ATTRACTIVENESS Use of landfills currently over 40% in Italy A2A KEY SUCCESS FACTORS Proven experience in development and management of treatment plants with material and energy recovery Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital Sorted collection >60% by 2020 in target geographic areas Tenders for waste collection concessions covering 5 million inhabitants served in target geographic areas in next 5 years Leader in sorted waste collection (~700 Kton in 2014) Plant developments already completed (glass treatment, heavy ashes plant ) Proven track record in tenders (~70% success rate, +160k inhabitants served in the last 18 months 34 34

35 Strong growth in Environment value chain Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital Industrial Other MSW Sorted % TREATMENT (Mtons) % MSW Municipal Solid Waste +22% COLLECTION (M inhabitants) +22% 600 kt/y recycling plants (glass, paper, organic, ) Other MSW: +300 kton/y ~35% external growth Foreign EPC contracts +550 K inhabitants served EBITDA + 54M By % success rate in waste collection tenders 35 35

36 District Heating development BUSINESS SEGMENT ATTRACTIVENESS DH, instrument to achieve energy efficiency goals and emission reduction in big urban areas Quasi regulated business A2A KEY SUCCESS FACTORS A2A strong presence in Lombardy's main towns and cities Long-term concessions (Milan, Brescia, Bergamo >2035. Varese 2025) Churn rate structurally close to zero Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital High potential in northern Italy Opportunities for integration between DH, electricity generation and waste treatment Significant growth opportunities in Milan and Bergamo (network coverage ~10%, vs. Brescia 70%) Efficient cross-industry business mix 36 36

37 District Heating development TWh % 2.9 Penetration increase* MI from 9% to 11% BG from 16% to 20% Saturation of existing heat sources +0.1 TWh EBITDA + 28M Strategic guidelines 2.0 Increase in Group heat generation +0.2 TWh By 2019 R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital Additional volumes for temperature normalization Heat recovery from thirdparty industrial processes +0.1 TWh * connected volumes 37 37

38 Growth in gas networks BUSINESS SEGMENT ATTRACTIVENESS A2A KEY SUCCESS FACTORS Reduction of current fragmentation thanks to tender process Opportunity of consolidation in Lombardy (18 ATEMs served) and in the northern part of Italy Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital Scale economies from sector consolidation Further cost synergies from adjacent ATEMs 38 38

39 Growth in gas networks 000 POD +13% +13% POD managed in gas distribution M RAB 1,215 1, % Cash-in and cash-out balanced from tendering process EBITDA + 19M By 2019 Strategic guidelines +27% RAB value combination of R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital 965 1,224 Sound capex plan POD increase through tenders POD: points of delivery 39 39

40 Growth in energy retail: mass-market and SME BUSINESS SEGMENT ATTRACTIVENESS Business segment with interesting risk-return profile, but with high competitiveness A2A KEY SUCCESS FACTORS Low and stable churn rate in each segment CtA: payback period <1 year (average) Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital Opportunity to extract value from operations Growth of value added and integrated services CtS residential customers in core territories <20 /year 65% dual customers Best-in-class credit/nwc Group know-how for cross-sector services and upselling (waste, energy efficiency, ) 40 40

41 Growth in energy retail: mass-market and SME Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital 000 POD EE GAS %* 3x %* Gradual territory expansion > 40M used for acquisition channels Strong focus on operating performance *free market on total customer EBITDA EBITDA + 53M + 53M By 2019 By 2019 Note: assumption of current regulatory and market structure continuity 41 41

42 EPCG performance enhancement Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital TWh Thermal 1.3 2, POWER GENERATION 3.0 Hydro 1.7 2, Thermal 1.4 Hydro FTE EVOLUTION 2, Further operating efficiencies Network losses -5% Smart meters +80k Structure streamlining (-468 FTE) Refurbishing of existing hydro plants (Piva and Perucica) Sharing of best practices Italy- Montenegro Tariff adjustment (CAGR +5%) New opportunities from energy management/ trading EBITDA + 61M By

43 R2: impact on EBITDA M + 215M 61 Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital Environment District Heating Gas Distribution Retail EPCG Incremental EBITDA R

44 Strategic Plan Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital 44 44

45 R3 Build options for the future ENERGY EFFICIENCY Renewing street lighting with LED Energy efficiency improvement in public and private buildings 250,000 installed LED 5,000 energyrefurbishment projects Strategic guidelines "ENERGY COMMUNITY" SERVICES From the current test phase to extended solutions of distributed generation, demand aggregator, storage systems Supporting the paradigm shift of the power system R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital SMART CITY New technological tests (smart grids, big data, ) for the design of new business models Leading role in the development of urban infrastructures 45 45

46 Focus on energy efficiency 000 LED example +150% Public Lighting Milan and Brescia (+40k lights) initiatives Strategic guidelines Focus on northern Italy mediumlarge municipalities Value-added services (Wi-Fi, video-surveillance,...) Energy efficiency Public Administration and Condominiums EBITDA + 30M By 2019 R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital Growth through selective acquisitions Regulatory opportunities (white certificates) 46 46

47 M R3: impact on EBITDA + 33M Strategic guidelines 20 R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 - Dialogue D3 - Digital Energy Efficiency Public Lighting Smart City EBITDA

48 Strategic Plan Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure R2 - Relaunch R3 - Reshape D1 - Discipline D2 Dialogue D3 - Digital 48 48

49 Discipline, Dialogue & Digital Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital DISCIPLINE DIALOGUE DIGITAL & TECH 130M cost-cutting from identified projects "EN&A", new project on process optimization (not included in plan financials) Growing dividend policy with a sustainable capital structure Accountability & transparency vs. stakeholder (multi-stakeholder table) Focus on people and skills development and entrepreneurial culture Strong commitment to environmental protection and natural resources 8 key digital initiatives identified to support enhancement of : - Brand positioning - Acquisition and cross-selling - Social care, online and mobile services, offer portfolio Emerging disruptive technologies, window opportunity" 49 49

50 130M cost savings OPEX M M -16% 28 Controllable Initiatives identified punctually Results already in 2015 Savings on O&M of energy and waste plants Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital LABOUR COST 2014 pro-forma Inflation pro-forma Unit Increase 2015 Savings Savings 2015 Inflation M -7% Unit Increase Savings Savings Launched En&A program to achieve significant process improvements in costs and quality of service (results not included in plans figures) Increase in productivity Full exploitation of labour market mechanisms Note: on a like for like basis data excluding Aspem Spa networks opex and labour costs (exit forecast from 2017); not included new development initiatives; capitalized labour cost included, other personnel costs not included (amounting to 50M in 2014 and 35M in 2015 and 2019) 50 50

51 Dividend policy and capital structure A2A DIVIDEND PER SHARE ( cent) +10% Stable dividends Growing dividends to about 2x 7.5 Stable dividends bound to grow Strategic guidelines R1 - Restructure D1 - Discipline R2 - Relaunch D2 - Dialogue R3 - Reshape D3 - Digital FFO/DEBT* 17.1% 17.7% % ~20% >25% maintaining solid investment grade rating * FFO = Ebitda provisions for bad debt - net interest expense - current tax expense + dividends received * Debt = gross financial debt net of surplus cash + employee benefits + liabilities for landfills 51 51

52 Strategic Plan Key financial figures 52 52

53 Ebitda evolution M , ,010 FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Key financial figures Closing Remarks One-off 14 Climate Effect Redundancy Costs 2014 Ordinary Environment Gener. & Trading District Heating Networks Other

54 Ebitda evolution M , ,354 FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Key financial figures Closing Remarks 2015 Gener. & Trading Energy retail Environment District Heating Networks EPCG

55 EBITDA regulated/ free market mix M 1,354 REGULATED FREE MARKET Regulated Quasi regulated FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Key financial figures Closing Remarks Ordinary Merchant low volatility Merchant 55 55

56 Net Income evolution M Extraordinary Effect 2014 Group Net Income Group Net Ordinary Income EBITDA 55 D&A -19 Risk Provisions 20 Net Financial Expenses -4 Associates, JV and others -5 Taxes Minorities 2015 Group Net Income Strategic Plan Economic and financial figures Group Net Income EBITDA D&A Risk Provisions Net Financial Expenses Tax Minorities 2019 Group Net Income 56 56

57 Capex Plan M CAPEX Development Maintenance Mandatory 1, ,090 1,094 FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Key financial figures Closing Remarks 1% 21% 41% REGULATED/ FREE MARKET (%) 36% Merchant Merchant low volatility Quasi Regulated Regulated Total Capex BUSINESS UNIT (%) 2% Epcg 8% 1% Corporate 14% Network District Heating 36% 25% Environment Retail 14% Generation & Trading 57 57

58 Cash-flow generation B FFO ~ 3.7B - 0.8B FY 2014 Results 3.3x x NFP/ EBITDA Strategic Plan Key financial figures Closing Remarks 2014 NFP Ebitda Change in NWC Use of Funds Tax Capex 2019 Net NFP Financial Expenses Dividends ~8%* RETURN ON INVESTMENTS ~12% ROI * Excluding 2014 impairment effects 58 58

59 Strategic Plan Upsides and wrap-up 59 59

60 Additional projects INITIATIVE Efficiency from process redesign and optimization Gas networks: further growth through gas tenders STATUS EN&A project launched ATEM scouting and tender preparation FEASIBILITY/ EBITDA IMPACT tbd 10-20M under way Integrated water cycle development through partnership ATO Brescia rationalization tbd Local aggregations First scouting of opportunities in Lombardy M FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Upsides and wrap-up Closing Remarks Heat transportation backbone Cassano-Milano WTE: new plants in southern Italy & rationalization in Lombardy System integrator for smart city services Agreement with Lombardy and Milan municipality under discussion Presence in Acerra, competitive dialogue ongoing in Giugliano, projects under study Pilot projects under-way (S.C.U.O.L.A. Project and Brescia Smart Living) 50-60M 40-80M 10M Potential abroad development M not included in Strategic Plan Business opportunity scouting under way tbd Feasibility low high 60 60

61 More flexible, more profitable INVESTMENTS FOR GROWTH ~ 2B cumulated Capex (~+40% vs ) EBITDA by B (CAGR 5.8%) - 0.8B debt reduction in 5 years FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Upsides and wrap-up Closing Remarks BUSINESS-MIX REBALANCE DIVIDEND POLICY AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE Thermal capacity reduction (-40%) Strong growth in core skills markets Regulated/Quasi-regulated EBITDA by 2019 ~35% DPS %, stable dividend set for DPS bound to grow Sustainable capital structure 61 61

62 Closing Remarks 62 62

63 New strategic plan designed backwards from future to present: once shared the vision we settled A2A positioning in 2020, than the management team built-up the steps needed to get there FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Leading public utility in Italy Solid economics and financials Best-in-class service standards, highly innovative Value creation for local communities served Best place to work for 63 63

64 Discontinuity and tradition FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Discontinuity plan, that reshapes strategies and business mix Combination of tradition and innovation 64 64

65 Our values for our stakeholder FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Tangible projects based on intangible values Stakeholder engagement and corporate social responsibility 65 65

66 Going industrial staying local FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Financial and economic improvement Industrial DNA of a deep-rooted local presence 66 66

67 Organization engagement FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Sharing throughout organization Professional growth opportunities Cohesive and simpler corporate governance 67 67

68 Growing together FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Promotion of alliances through an innovative approach 68 68

69 Presente nel futuro The future beckons. WE ARE READY. We are ready, raring to go. Now. Eager in the present to join the future

70 Q&A FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks 70 70

71 Contacts and Disclaimer FY 2014 Results Strategic Plan Closing Remarks Contacts: A2A Investor Relations Team Mail: Phone: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by A2A solely for investors and analysts. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares or other securities and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Some information contained herein and other material discussed at the meetings may include forward-looking information based on A2A s current beliefs and expectations. These statements are based on current plans, estimates, projections, and projects and therefore you should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, but are not limited to changes in global economic business, changes in the price of certain commodities including electricity, gas and coal, the competitive market and regulatory factors. Moreover, forward-looking statements are current only at the date on which they are made