Evolution of the Indian Microfinance Sector

Transcription

1 Evolution of the Indian Microfinance Sector Mona Kachhwaha Director Investments, Caspian Impact Investment Adviser

2 Microfinance History in Brief Microfinance has existed for ~25 years in India Government sponsored banklinkage programme and NGOMFIs inspired by the Grameen model provided the initial impetus Commercialisation started 10 years later, when private sector banks started lending to MFIs, on the back of priority sector classification by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and collaboration with DFIs and foundations Equity funds followed around the same time, in mid2000s: Caspian was set up in 2004 first investment from Bellwether Microfinance Fund in years later, by 2010, we had seen major highs (unprecedented equity and debt inflows, an IPO) and a major low (Andhra Pradesh crisis)

3 AUM (INR bn) Microfinance: Last Seven Years Source: MFIN, MicroMeter, Periods Ending March 31 st AUM is Loan Portfolio Outstanding on MFI books Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017

4 AUM (INR bn) Microfinance: Last Seven Years st MFI IPO AP Ordinance NBFCMFI Regulation Source: MFIN, MicroMeter, Periods Ending March 31 st AUM is Loan Portfolio Outstanding on MFI books Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017 Mor Committee Recommendatio ns SFB Licenses 2 nd & 3 rd SFBs MFI Start Ops IPOs Demonetization

5 AUM (INR bn) Macro Events Shaping Microfinance in Recent Years Key Developments st MFI IPO NBFCMFI AP Regulation Ordinance Mor Committee Recommendatio ns Source: MFIN, MicroMeter, Periods Ending March 31 st AUM is Loan Portfolio Outstanding on MFI books Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017 SFB Licenses 2 nd & 3 rd SFBs MFI Start Ops IPOs Demonetization Aug 2010: First Indian MFI IPO Oct 2010: AP Ordinance curbing MFI activities in the state; impact felt pan country Dec 2011: RBI creates a special category for microfinance NBFCMFI Jan 2014: Nachiket Mor Committee recommends creation of differentiated banks to promote financial inclusion Sep 2015: 10 Small Finance Bank (SFB) licensees announced Apr/May 2016: Listing of 2 MFIs transitioning to SFB Nov 2016: Demonetization FY : 9 SFBs start operations

6 Loan Amount Outstanding (INR bn) Diversity in Providers of Microfinance Over Time Growth of Portfolio Outstanding % 14% 6% 1% % % 38% ForProfit MFI's NonProfit MFI's NBFCMFI's Banks SFB's NBFCs NonProfits Source: Bharat Microfinance Report, 2011; MFIN MicroMeter, March 2017 Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017

7 Looking Back 2010 to 2017: Political Risk > Regulatory Support > Stability > Growth > Exits After the AP Ordinance, RBI stepped in with a new regulation/classification to stabilise MFIs and further enhanced it by creating a framework to enable their conversion to banks Microfinance as a whole (bank or nonbank) is now a legitimate part of the financial sector; viewed as wellregulated and better understood by stakeholders This has enabled a steady flow of funds debt and equity Two recent IPOs have established it as an investible asset the post listing experience has been materially different from the first one Exits from secondary sales have become easier to project and execute

8 Aggregate Deal Size (INR mn) Number of Transactions Average Deal Size (INR mn) Median PreMoney P/BV Equity Raised by Microfinance Institutions Deal Size & Volume Average Deal Size & Valuation ,50x ,25x ,80x 1,81x 1,84x 2,07x 2,10x ,17x 2,30x 2,10x 1,90x 1,70x ,50x Aggregate Deal Size Number of Deals Average Deal Size Median PreMoney Multiple Note: Excludes secondary transactions; includes primary capital raised in IPOs and QIPs. Source: Caspian Data Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017

9 Investing Landscape : Largely, impact funds and DFIs : VC/PE led club deals with impact investors in scaled MFIs; impact funds led investments in other earlystage financial inclusion businesses Valuations: started to look up from 2014 Liquidity: improved dramatically from Impact funds gradually replaced by VC/PE funds in private rounds of scaled companies. In public listings, institutional investors like mutual funds and insurance companies brought in the bulk of the capital

10 Total Deal Value (INR mn) PreMoney P/BV Total Deal Value (INR mn) PreMoney P/BV Capital Raised by Large MFIs Two Examples Company A Company B ,03x 2,43x ,25x 2,60x 2,20x 1,80x ,71x 2,29x 1,93x 1,78x 2,12x ,10x 2,60x 2,20x 1,80x ,35x 1,36x ,40x ,40x ,00x ,00x Deal Values Average PreMoney Multiple Deal Values Average PreMoney Multiple % Contribution by Impact Investors 54% 100% 100% 11% 0% % Contribution by Impact Investors 56% 0% 80% 92% 65% 0% Includes only primary capital raised and IPO Source: Caspian Data, Red Herring Prospectuses Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017

11 Exit Experience Industry data on exits reveals the risks as much as the rewards that investors have experienced it s a wide spectrum: 46% in the top tercile compared to 2% in the bottom Financial inclusion accounted for ~65% of all impact investment exits between 2010 and 2016 by volume, compared to ~40% of all investments by value Average holding period is lower than expected at 5 years In most exit rounds, impact investors have taken partial exits, staying invested alongside mainstream funds and institutional investors

12 Impact Investments at a Glance ( ) $ 5.2 bn Cumulative Impact Investments 46.5% Top Tercile 48% Capital Infused by Mainstream Funds 11% Weighted Average IRR 15.5% Medium Tercile 62% Deals Seeded by Impact Investors $ 2.0 bn Financial Inclusion Investments 2.0% Bottom Tercile Median IRR in 31 Financial Inclusion Exits Source: McKinsey, Impact Investing Finds it s place in India, September 2017 * , (Note: 1 = INR 75.3 as on November 9 th 2017) 4.9 Years Average Holding Period