MEXICAN AIRPORT SECTOR. Resuming coverage on the Mexican Airport Sector OMA is our top pick HOLD ASUR GAP SELL BUY OMA.
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- Gary Shelton
- 6 years ago
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1 MEXICAN AIRPORT SECTOR Resuming coverage on the Mexican Airport Sector OMA is our top pick May 29, 2012 We are resuming coverage and introducing our 12-month forward target prices for the three publicly-listed Mexican airports. OMA is our top pick in the sector with a BUY recommendation due to an attractive valuation. Our HOLD rating on ASUR is because we believe that the stock is fairly valued and there is a limited upside potential to our target price. Our SELL recommendation on GAP is due mainly to the stock s high valuation and our concerns with respect to GMEXICO. We are expecting a 5% growth in the industry s total passenger traffic for 2012 and 6% for Our passenger (PAX) traffic expectations are supported by: i) our 2012 and 2013 economic growth forecast for Mexico (+4.2% and +3.2%) and the US (+2.3% and +2.8%); and, ii) a higher seat capacity expansion and airfares (demand) in the industry. ASUR (HOLD, TP MP ). Our recommendation is mainly based on ASUR s unattractive valuation with a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 9.9x, which represent a 24% premium to the global peers, 2% to GAP and 11% to OMA. ASUR s high valuation incorporates much of the firm s EBITDA growth potential (+17% in 2012E and +11% in 2013E) driven by higher traffic and commercial revenue. In addition, the potential return to our target price is 12% including an estimated 4% dividend yield. The main risk to our HOLD recommendation would be if ASUR won the Puerto Rico s Airport bidding process. GAP (SELL, TP MP 50.50). Our SELL recommendation is due mainly to the following: i) we find GAP s valuation unattractive at current levels as the stock is currently trading at a 2012E EV/EVITDA of 9.7x and projected P/E of 19.7x which are the highest in the Mexican airport sector; ii) we are concerned about the potential resolution of GMEXICO s fight for the control of the company and the risk related to a potential sale of GMEXICO s stake in GAP (significant overhang); and, iii) the potential return to our target price is only 9% considering our 4% estimated dividend yield. OMA (BUY, TP MP 30.50) is our top pick in the sector due mainly to its attractive valuation with a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 8.9x and a projected P/E of 15.5x which do not fully reflect the company s EBITDA growth potential (+10% in 2012E and +12% in 2013E) supported by an improving passenger traffic and strong commercial and non-aeronautical revenue. The potential upside potential to our TP is 22% considering our 5% estimated dividend yield. ASUR E 2013E Operating Revenue (MXN) 3,131 3,494 3,859 4,412 4,858 EBITDA (MXN) 1,967 2,104 2,479 2,895 3,226 Net income (MXN) 797 1,173 1,592 1,813 2,049 GAP Operating Revenue (MXN) 3,266 3,717 3,903 4,183 4,531 EBITDA (MXN) 2,124 2,438 2,588 2,750 2,984 Net income (MXN) 1,199 1,500 1,518 1,373 1,451 OMA Operating Revenue (MXN) 1,896 2,144 2,459 2,697 2,994 Adjusted EBITDA (MXN) ,252 1,375 1,544 Net income (MXN) ASUR Local Ticker ADR GAP OMA Actinver Corporate Headquarters 1200 Guillermo González Camarena Floor 5, Santa Fé México, D.F HOLD Price Target MXN / USD 84.2 Last Price MXN 98.2 / USD 71.2 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range Local Ticker ADR ASUR.B (BB: ASR.US) 7.9% 3.7% 11.6% MXN 29,472 MXN 28,007 ( ) SELL Price Target 2012 MXN 50.5 / USD 40.1 Last Price MXN 48.2 / USD 35.3 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range Local Ticker ADR GAP.B (BB: PAC.US) 4.9% 4.4% 9.3% MXN 27,018 MXN 26,280 ( ) BUY Price Target MXN 30.5 / USD 19.4 Last Price MXN 26.0 / USD 14.8 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range OMA.B (BB: OMAB.US) 17.3% 4.8% 22.1% MXN 10,373 MXN 11,326 ( ) Ramon Ortiz Concessions, Construction & Real Estate rortiz@actinver.com.mx +52 (55) x5034
2 Relative valuation Dividend Price Mkt. Cap EV Return Return yield EV/EBITDA P/BV P/E Sector/Company Ticker (Local) (USD) (USD) YTD YoY 2011E 2011A actual 2012E 2013E actual 2011A actual 2012E 2013E Transport / Airports ADP ADP.FP ,291 10, % -10.3% 3.0% 7.8x 8.4x 7.9x 7.4x 1.6x 16.1x 16.7x 16.4x 14.7x Fraport FRA.GR ,926 9, % -23.2% 2.9% 8.5x 9.2x 8.6x 7.8x 1.4x 17.0x 17.0x 16.3x 14.3x Shangai Intl Airport CH ,941 3, % -2.5% N.A. 11.8x 65.7x 8.6x 7.6x 1.6x 16.6x 16.6x 14.5x 12.6x Auckland Intl Airport AIA.NZ 2.5 2,548 3, % 11.5% 1.9% 15.2x 15.3x 14.3x 13.8x 1.4x 32.0x 32.1x 29.1x 24.2x Airports of Thailand AOT.TB ,518 3, % 49.7% 2.2% 6.4x 7.0x 6.7x 6.7x 1.1x 18.1x 18.2x 16.3x 15.3x Beijing Intl Airport 694.HK 4.5 2,494 5, % 21.8% 0.4% 11.2x 57.4x 8.1x 7.1x 1.1x 14.2x 17.4x 14.9x 12.3x Flughafen Zuerich FHZN.SW ,114 3, % -15.2% 3.0% 6.5x 6.5x 6.3x 6.1x 1.1x 11.9x 11.9x 11.8x 10.8x ASUR ASURB.MM ,113 1, % 39.2% 3.7% 11.6x 10.6x 9.9x 8.8x 1.8x 18.5x 17.2x 16.3x 14.4x GAP GAPB.MM ,938 1, % 1.7% 4.4% 9.9x 9.9x 9.7x 8.8x 1.2x 17.8x 17.9x 19.7x 18.6x TAV Havalimanlari TAVHL.TI 9.0 1,784 3, % 14.2% N.A. 16.9x 16.5x 8.8x 7.7x 2.9x 18.0x 18.0x 15.2x 12.0x Flughafen Wien FLU.AV , % -20.7% 3.4% 6.6x 6.7x 7.2x 6.5x 0.8x 20.1x 20.1x 13.3x 12.8x OMA OMAB.MM % 2.2% 4.8% 9.5x 9.1x 8.9x 7.9x 1.7x 16.8x 15.2x 15.5x 13.3x Hainan Meilan Intl Airport 357.HK % -47.0% N.A. 6.0x 5.2x 2.5x N.A. 0.8x 6.0x 7.4x 6.9x 6.5x M edian (Transport / Airports) 2,114 3, % 1.7% 3.0% 9.5x 9.2x 8.6x 7.7x 1.4x 17.0x 17.2x 15.5x 13.3x Average (Transport / Airports) 2,579 3, % 1.6% 3.0% 9.8x 17.5x 8.3x 8.0x 1.4x 17.2x 17.3x 15.8x 14.0x Source: Bloomberg and Actinver estimates. The Mexican Airport sector is currently trading at a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 9.5x on average, which represents an 20% premium to the global peers median multiple. This is due mainly to ASUR s and GAP s high valuations. However, OMA (our top pick sector) trades at a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 8.9x which is marginally higher than the industry s 8.6x. OMA s attractive valuation is mainly explained by the positive outlook in terms of passenger recovery and potential revenue growth coming for its commercial and non aeronautical revenues over the years to come, as we mentioned before. 2
3 GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL SURESTE, S.A.B DE C.V. Resuming coverage with HOLD recommendation, Most of the positive news are priced in We are initiating coverage on ASUR with a HOLD recommendation and a DCF-based 12-month forward target price of MP We believe that ASUR s shares are fairly valued as they are currently trading at a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 9.9x (24% premium to the global peers, 2% to GAP and 11% to OMA). In addition, the potential return to our TP is only 12% including an estimated 4% dividend yield. We consider ASUR s fundamentals as strong for the following reasons: i) we expect an EBITDA growth of 17% in 2012E and 11% in 2013E driven by higher traffic and commercial revenue; ii) high EBITDA margins (without incorporating the effects of construction services) of 65.6% in 2012E and 66.4% in 2013 and a low leverage with a negative net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.6x at the end of 1Q12; iii) we expect ASUR to continue paying dividends with a 3.7% yield going forward; iv) ASUR is the concessionaire of the Cancun airport, - which is Mexico s second largest in terms of total traffic - Cancun is a target destination for US and European citizens on the Mexican peso weakness. This supports ASUR s operations during period of economic uncertainty (as observed recently). The main risk to our HOLD recommendation would be if ASUR won the Puerto Rico s Airport bidding process. ASUR is currently participating in the process to acquire Puerto Rico s Luis Muñoz Marin (LMM) airport concession with Highstar Capital. If the consortium integrated by ASUR would be declared as winner (the local authority will likely announce the results in June), ASUR would be able to better diversify its revenue generation and increase its ROE for shareholders. However, we have not incorporated this new asset in our model because ASUR is competing against other groups in this process. ASUR s operating risks include: i) exposure to one single airport as Cancun represents 74% of total EBITDA; ii) potential hurricane in the company s main airports; iii) recession in both the US and Europe which could affect travelers demand to Cancun; iv) airlines difficulty to carry out their fleet expansion plans (on macroeconomic and/or airline-specific factors) which could limit the industry s expected growth in seat capacity; v) oil price increases which could affect airfares and passenger demand; vi) halt flights in the Mexico City airport as a result of ash spewing from Popocatepetl volcano; and /or vii) adverse regulatory changes. Local Ticker ADR Stock performance Hold Price Target MXN / USD 84.2 Last Price MXN 98.2 / USD 71.2 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range Dec-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Source: Bloomberg ASUR IPC ASUR.B (BB: ASR.US) 7.9% 3.7% 11.6% MXN 29,472 MXN 28,007 ( ) E 2012E 2013E Estimates Operating Revenue (MXN) 3,131 3,494 3,859 4,412 4,858 EBITDA (MXN) 1,967 2,104 2,479 2,895 3,226 Adj. EBITDA margin 62.8% 60.2% 64.2% 65.6% 66.4% Net income (MXN) 797 1,173 1,592 1,813 2,049 EPS (MXN) DPS ASUR (MXN) ROE 5.7% 8.2% 10.5% 11.4% 12.3% Valuation EV/EBITDA 10.1x 9.8x 11.6x 9.9x 8.8x P/E 24.1x 19.9x 18.5x 16.3x 14.4x P/BV 1.5x 1.4x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 3 Ramon Ortiz Concessions, Construction & Real Estate rortiz@actinver.com.mx +52 (55) x5034 Actinver Corporate Headquarters 1200 Guillermo González Camarena Floor 5, Santa Fé México, D.F
4 Valuation Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model We are introducing our 12-month forward target price of MP /share. We set this target price is based on a DCF valuation model which assumes a 10.1% WACC (cost of equity of 10.3%, 4% total debt to capitalization and beta of 1.0), and a perpetual 5.0% growth in nominal terms. The potential return is 12% taking into account our 4% expected dividend yield. The implied EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.5x, which is more than one standard deviation above its historical average. Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model (USD million) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Perp. EBIT Taxes Tax rate 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% NOPLAT D&A CAPEX Change in WC FCFF ,942 NPV FCFF ,505 Firm value 2,462 Net debt -63 Minority interest 0 Estimated market cap 2,525 ADS Equivalent Shares 30.0 Fair value / ADS (USD) 84.2 Exchange rate 12.6 Fair value / share (MXN) Target Fwd EV/EBITDA 9.5x Current price (MXN) 98.2 Upside to fair value 7.9% + Dividend yield 2012E 3.7% Total upside potential 11.6% Source: Actinver. Sensitivity Analysis We are additionally including sensitivity tables to reflect risks associated with our target price, as well as to changes in the WACC estimates and in the residual growth rate, where our base case scenario is located at the center of the table. This information will be useful to measure possible variations that might have our estimates in a highly volatile environment, as we ve seen during the current year. WACC Residual Growth 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 11.6% % % % % % % Non-Expected Change in EBITDA Non-Expected Change in Earnings EV/EBITDA 2012E Target Multiple 9.8x 10.3x 10.8x 11.3x 11.8x 15% % % % % % % PE 2012E Target Multiple 16.7x 17.2x 17.7x 18.2x 18.7x 15% % % % % % % Valuation: Fwd EV/12M EBITDA 12.0x 10.0x +1σ = 8.7x 8.0x avg = 7.8x 6.0x -1σ = 6.9x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x Source: Actinver. 4
5 Forecasted Income Statement and Operating Metrics G.A. del Sureste, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Operating Metrics Total Passenger Traffic (TPT) 16,715 4,621 4,407 4,334 4,178 17,541 5,101 4,709 4,591 4,428 18,828 20,025 YoY Change 7.6% -1.3% 2.9% 8.2% 11.7% 4.9% 10.4% 6.8% 5.9% 6.0% 7.3% 6.4% Domestic Passengers 6,891 1,505 1,867 2,113 1,973 7,458 1,803 2,091 2,251 2,091 8,236 8,731 International Passengers 9,824 3,116 2,540 2,220 2,206 10,083 3,298 2,617 2,340 2,337 10,593 11,294 Income Statement (MXN million) Total Revenue 4,235 1,063 1,095 1,049 1,367 4,573 1,286 1,302 1,277 1,287 5,151 5,673 Construction Services Total Operating Revenue 3,494 1, ,859 1,195 1,119 1,054 1,044 4,412 4,858 YoY change 11.6% 3.1% 6.8% 13.0% 21.0% 10.4% 19.4% 16.6% 12.0% 9.0% 14.3% 10.1% Aeronautical Services 2, , ,810 3,090 Non-Aeronautical Services 1, , ,602 1,768 Total Operating Costs 2, , ,646 2,852 Costs of Services + GA 1, , ,907 2,037 Costs of Services ,045 General & Administrative Govt. Concession Taxes Technical Assistance Fees D&A Cost of Construction Operating Income (EBIT) 1, , ,505 2,821 YoY change 19.1% 15.2% 27.1% 65.0% 32.2% 31.6% 25.1% 23.1% 17.0% 11.5% 19.5% 12.6% Adjusted Operating Margin 45.6% 58.2% 54.8% 52.3% 51.6% 54.3% 61.0% 57.9% 54.7% 52.8% 56.8% 58.1% D&A EBITDA 2, , ,895 3,226 YoY change 7.0% 1.7% 10.0% 45.2% 26.6% 17.8% 22.3% 19.7% 14.3% 9.9% 16.8% 11.4% Adjusted EBITDA Margin 60.2% 67.7% 64.7% 62.6% 61.7% 64.2% 69.3% 66.5% 63.9% 62.2% 65.6% 66.4% Net Financial Result Exceptional Items Pretax Profit (EBT) 1, , ,510 2,846 Taxes Effective Tax Rate 27.5% 27.9% 27.7% 29.0% 18.2% 25.8% 24.7% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 27.8% 28.0% Minority Interest Majority Net Income 1, , ,813 2,049 YoY change 47.0% 11.9% 30.0% 63.9% 51.8% 35.8% 28.0% 23.2% 12.1% -7.3% 13.9% 13.0% Adjusted Net Margin 33.6% 42.0% 40.2% 38.6% 44.1% 41.3% 45.0% 42.5% 38.7% 37.5% 41.1% 42.2% Shares Outstanding EPS (MXN) DPS ASUR (MXN) Source: Actinver 5
6 Forecasted Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement G.A. del Sureste, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Balance Sheet (MXN million) Total Assets 18,214 18,747 18,346 18,829 18,803 18,803 19,203 18,551 18,911 19,549 19,549 20,358 Short Term Assets 2,715 3,305 2,875 3,325 2,843 2,843 3,520 2,703 3,042 3,275 3,275 3,663 Cash and Equivalents 1,443 1,851 1,366 1,741 1,530 1,530 2, ,190 1,385 1,385 1,583 Accounts Receivable Inventory Others 873 1,004 1,127 1, ,385 1,422 1,451 1,451 1,597 Long Term Assets 15,499 15,442 15,472 15,503 15,961 15,961 15,683 15,848 15,869 16,274 16,274 16,695 Net Fixed Assets 7,780 7,746 7,799 7,854 8,334 8,334 7,930 8,110 8,160 8,621 8,621 8,971 LT Accounts Receivable Airport Concessions and Rights 7,719 7,695 7,672 7,649 7,626 7,626 7,753 7,738 7,709 7,653 7,653 7,724 Other LT Assets Total Liabilities 3,418 3,531 3,645 3,763 3,316 3,316 3,189 3,170 3,223 3,204 3,204 3,114 Short Term Liabilities , , Accounts Payable Tax Payable Short Term Debt Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities 2,953 2,908 2,758 2,666 2,613 2,613 2,178 2,309 2,328 2,311 2,311 2,281 Long Term Debt Other LT Liabilities 2,306 2,290 2,295 2,252 2,291 2,291 2,007 2,005 2,003 2,001 2,001 1,993 Shareholders Funds 14,795 15,216 14,702 15,066 15,488 15,488 16,014 15,381 15,688 16,345 16,345 17,245 Minority Interest Shareholders Equity 14,795 15,216 14,702 15,066 15,488 15,488 16,014 15,381 15,688 16,345 16,345 17,245 Total Liabilities and Equity 18,214 18,747 18,346 18,829 18,803 18,803 19,203 18,551 18,911 19,549 19,549 20,358 Total debt Net debt , ,039 Net Debt / EBITDA -0.3x -0.5x -0.2x -0.4x -0.3x -0.3x -0.6x -0.1x -0.2x -0.3x -0.3x -0.3x ROE 8.2% 8.4% 13.9% 9.7% 10.5% 10.5% 11.2% 18.4% 11.8% 11.4% 11.4% 12.3% Unlevered FCF Yield 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 5.8% 4.1% 4.1% 6.5% 4.7% 4.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7% Levered FCF Yield 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 6.2% 4.3% 4.3% 6.9% 4.8% 4.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% Cash Flow (MXN million) Majority Net Income 1, , ,813 2,049 D&A Other Non-Cash Items Adjusted Cash Flow 1, ,935 1, ,604 2,456 Changes in Working Capital Change in Debt Capital Expenditures Dividends , ,080 1,170 Other Net Cash Flow , Beginning Cash 961 1,443 1,851 1,366 1,741 1,443 1,530 2, ,190 1,530 1,385 Ending Cash 1,443 1,851 1,366 1,741 1,530 1,530 2, ,190 1,385 1,386 1,583 Source: Actinver 6
7 GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL PACIFICO, S.A.B DE C.V. The softest recovery in PAX in the sector We are cautious about the potential solution of GMEXICO s fight for the control We are resuming coverage on GAP with a SELL recommendation and a 12-month forward target price of MP per share. Our negative view is due mainly to: i) an unattractive valuation as GAP is currently trading at a 2012E EV/EBITDA of 9.7x and a projected P/E of 19.7 which are among the highest in the Mexican airport sector; ii) we are concerned about GMEXICO s strategy to acquire a controlling equity stake in the company by any means and the risk related to a potential sale of GMEXICO s stake in GAP (significant overhang); and, iii) the potential return to our target price offers is only 9% considering our estimated dividend yield. We find difficult to predict what would be the final result on the Grupo Mexico s Saga to acquire GAP s control. We are more inclined to believe that GMEXICO will not succeed. The reduced liquidity of GAP s shares, along with market s concerns on this situation will continue limiting the stock s price performance going forward, in our view. In terms of fundamentals, we expect GAP s EBITDA to increase 6% in 2012E and 9% 2013E due to a favorable performance in the aeronautical and non-aeronautical segments with slightly higher EBITDA margins. This means that GAP will have the softest PAX traffic recovery in the year, which will also translate into the weakest ROE in the sector. Like the other Mexican airport concessionaires, GAP generates a significant amount of free cash flow (unlevered FCF yield of 4.2% in 2012E) which helps to company to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a negative net debt to EBITDA ratio. Greater diversification in transported passengers (tourist and business). GAP is the most diversified operator in the market in terms of airports and PAX markets served (tourism / business). For example, GAP s largest airport is Guadalajara, which accounts for 36% of its total passenger traffic which is below ASUR s Cancun (74% of TPT) and OMA s Monterrey (47% of TPT). GAP s main operating risks includes: i) dependence on one single airport as Guadalajara represents 36% of TPT; ii) a potential slowdown of the Mexican economy which would affected passenger traffic; iii) the airlines difficulty to carry out their fleet expansion plans (on macroeconomic and/or airline-specific factors), which could limit passenger (PAX) traffic; iv) higher international oil prices would bring airfares up with a negative impact on PAX traffic demand; iv) hurricane risk in the Pacific zone; v) halt flights in the Mexico City airport as a result of ash spewing from Popocatepetl volcano; and / or vi) adverse regulatory changes. Stock performance Local Ticker ADR Sell Price Target 2012 MXN 50.5 / USD 40.1 Last Price MXN 48.2 / USD 35.3 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range GAP.B (BB: PAC.US) 4.9% 4.4% 9.3% MXN 27,018 MXN 26,280 ( ) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 GAP IPC Source: Bloomberg The main risk to our SELL recommendation would be if: i) better than expected performance in total passenger traffic (TPT) recovery; and/or ii) favorable resolution on GMEXICO s dispute Estim ates E 2012E 2013E Operating Revenue (MXN) 3,266 3,717 3,903 4,183 4,531 EBITDA (MXN) 2,124 2,438 2,588 2,750 2,984 Adj. EBITDA margin 65.0% 65.6% 66.3% 65.7% 65.9% Net income (MXN) 1,199 1,500 1,518 1,373 1,451 EPS (MXN) DPS (MXN) ROE 4.5% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.9% Valuation EV/EBITDA 10.5x 11.3x 9.9x 9.7x 8.8x P/E 17.9x 20.4x 17.8x 19.7x 18.6x P/BV 0.9x 1.1x 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x Ramon Ortiz Concessions, Construction & Real Estate rortiz@actinver.com.mx +52 (55) x5034 Actinver Corporate Headquarters 1200 Guillermo González Camarena Floor 5, Santa Fé México, D.F
8 Valuation Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model We are setting a 12-month target price of MP /share through a DCF valuation method which assumes a 10.6% WACC (cost of equity of 10.8%, beta of 1.1 and 7% debt to total capitalization) and a 5.0% perpetual growth in nominal terms. The potential upside is 9% including a 4% expected dividend yield. Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model (USD million) 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Perp. EBIT Taxes Tax rate 25% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% NOPLAT D&A CAPEX Change in WC FCFF ,489 NPV FCFF ,276 Sensitivity analysis Non-Expected Change in EBITDA Non-Expected Change in Earnings Firm value 2,231 Net debt -18 Minority interest 0 Estimated market cap 2,249 ADS Equivalent Shares 56.1 Fair value / ADS (USD) 40.1 Exchange rate 12.6 Fair value / share (MXN) 50.5 Target Fwd EV/EBITDA 9.2x Current price (MXN) 48.2 Upside to fair value 4.9% + Dividend yield 2011E 4.4% Total upside potential 9.3% Source: Actinver. EV/EBITDA 2012E Target Multiple 9.2x 9.7x 10.2x 10.7x 11.2x 15% % % % % % % PE 2012E Target Multiple 19.6x 20.1x 20.6x 21.1x 21.6x 15% % % % % % % Considering our TP of MP per share, GAP would be trading at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x, which is 3% below its historical average. Comparison vs. global peers Valuation: Fwd EV/12M EBITDA 16.0x 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x Source: Actinver. +1σ = 11.3x avg = 9.5x -1σ = 7.3x GAP s 18% premium against the global sector s 8.3x, -2% against ASUR and 10% vs. OMA are unjustified, in our view. GAP s premium against its local competitors is one of the highest. This has been mainly driven by the increase in GMEX- ICO s stake. We are also including sensitivity tables to account for unexpected changes in our WACC and perpetuity growth assumptions. WACC Residual Growth 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 12.1% % % % % % %
9 Forecasted Income Statement and Operating Metrics G.A. del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Operating Metrics Total Passenger Traffic (TPT) 20,217 5,086 4,912 4,993 5,207 20,199 5,368 5,077 5,196 5,382 21,022 22,001 YoY Change 4.9% -2.5% -2.2% -2.6% 7.3% -0.1% 5.5% 3.3% 4.1% 3.4% 4.1% 4.7% Domestic Passengers 13,217 3,012 3,184 3,441 3,413 13,051 3,166 3,319 3,580 3,530 13,595 14,263 International Passengers 7,001 2,074 1,728 1,552 1,793 7,148 2,203 1,758 1,615 1,851 7,427 7,738 Cargo Volume 1, , ,577 1,603 Total Workload Units 21,822 5,461 5,284 5,389 5,632 21,767 5,732 5,454 5,597 5,816 22,600 23,604 Income Statement (MXN million) Total Revenue 4,332 1,243 1,211 1,229 1,256 4,939 1,246 1,214 1,268 1,314 5,042 5,308 Construction Services , Total Operational Revenues 3, ,050 3,903 1,086 1,022 1,037 1,039 4,183 4,531 YoY change 13.8% 2.4% 1.2% 1.7% 14.9% 5.0% 12.3% 9.4% 8.9% -1.0% 7.2% 8.3% Aeronautical Services 2, , ,310 3,591 Non-Aeronautical Services Total Operating Costs 2, , ,194 3,309 Operating Costs 2, , ,334 2,532 Costs of Services ,079 1,163 Personnel Maintenance Security and Insurance Utilities Other Op. Expenses D&A Govt. Concession Taxes Technical Assistance Fees Cost of Construction , Operating Income (EBIT) 1, , ,849 2,000 YoY change 20.3% 13.7% -0.8% -0.1% 21.8% 8.7% 9.7% 15.2% 12.8% 0.4% 9.1% 8.2% Adjusted Operating Margin 41.9% 49.6% 40.0% 40.7% 43.2% 43.4% 48.4% 42.1% 42.1% 43.8% 44.2% 44.1% D&A EBITDA 2, , ,750 2,984 YoY change 14.8% 2.7% -0.5% 2.5% 20.5% 6.1% 11.0% 9.7% 8.6% -3.1% 6.3% 8.5% Adjusted EBITDA Margin 65.6% 67.5% 65.0% 64.8% 67.7% 66.3% 66.8% 65.2% 64.7% 66.3% 65.7% 65.9% Net Financial Result Exceptional Items Pretax Profit (EBT) 1, , ,840 2,015 Taxes Effective Tax Rate 6.0% 9.6% 49.4% 18.1% -17.8% 12.8% 15.6% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 25.3% 28.0% Minority Interest Majority Net Income 1, , ,373 1,451 YoY change 25.1% -22.1% 8.2% 5.7% 24.3% 1.2% -1.8% 68.0% -9.0% -42.5% -9.5% 5.6% Adjusted Net Margin 40.4% 44.8% 20.3% 36.0% 52.7% 38.9% 39.1% 31.2% 30.1% 30.6% 32.8% 32.0% Shares Outstanding EPS (MXN) DPS GAP (MXN) Source: Actinver 9
10 Forecasted Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement G.A. del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Balance Sheet (MXN million) Total Assets 28,889 28,721 28,398 28,591 29,392 29,392 25,019 27,202 26,969 26,821 26,821 27,475 Short Term Assets 3,023 2,809 2,452 2,539 2,886 2,886 3,156 2,611 2,566 2,635 2,635 3,143 Cash and Equivalents 2,349 2,169 1,866 1,964 2,135 2,135 2,659 2,217 1,877 1,947 1,947 2,398 Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Others Long Term Assets 25,866 25,912 25,947 26,052 26,506 26,506 21,863 24,592 24,402 24,187 24,187 24,332 Net Fixed Assets Improvements to Concessions 4,148 4,027 4,241 4,458 4,634 4,634 4,529 5,001 4,966 4,967 4,967 4,940 LT Accounts Receivable Airport Concessions and Rights 19,227 19,092 18,957 18,823 18,688 18,688 16,530 19,120 18,969 18,752 18,752 18,927 Other LT Assets 2,044 2,348 2,255 2,272 2,348 2, Total Liabilities 2,218 1,955 2,483 2,791 3,049 3,049 2,913 2,917 2,864 2,723 2,723 2,715 Short Term Liabilities ,055 1,062 1,062 1, Accounts Payable Tax Payable Short Term Debt Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities 1,314 1,282 1,618 1,737 1,987 1,987 1,905 1,937 1,881 1,826 1,826 1,777 Long Term Debt 1, ,306 1,402 1,612 1,612 1,509 1,541 1,486 1,430 1,430 1,381 Other LT Liabilities Shareholders Funds 26,671 26,766 25,915 25,799 26,343 26,343 22,106 24,286 24,105 24,098 24,098 24,759 Minority Interest Shareholders Equity 26,671 26,766 25,915 25,799 26,343 26,343 22,106 24,286 24,105 24,098 24,098 24,759 Total Liabilities and Equity 28,889 28,721 28,398 28,591 29,392 29,392 25,019 27,202 26,969 26,821 26,821 27,475 Total debt 1,309 1,243 1,459 1, ,921 1,854 1,787 1,720 1,720 1,661 Net debt -1, ,429-1, Net Debt / EBITDA -0.4x -0.4x -0.2x -0.1x -0.6x -0.6x -0.3x -0.1x 0.0x -0.1x -0.1x -0.2x ROE 5.6% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.9% Unlevered FCF Yield 5.2% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% 2.7% 4.4% 4.2% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 5.9% Levered FCF Yield 5.7% 5.1% 4.3% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 1,332 1, ,177 1, ,129 1,392 1, ,207 1,157 1,011 1,131 Cash Flow (MXN million) Majority Net Income 1, , ,373 1,451 D&A Other Non-Cash Items Adjusted Cash Flow 1, , ,225 2,452 Changes in Working Capital Change in Debt , , , Capital Expenditures , , Dividends 1, , ,195 1,122 Other , , ,138 - Net Cash Flow Beginning Cash 2,174 2,349 2,169 1,866 1,964 2,349 2,135 2,659 2,217 1,877 2,135 1,947 Ending Cash 2,349 2,169 1,866 1,964 2,135 2,135 2,659 2,217 1,877 1,947 1,947 2,398 Source: Actinver 10
11 GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO CENTRO NORTE, S.A.B DE C.V. Our top pick OMA has the most attractive valuation in the sector. We are resuming coverage in OMA with BUY recommendation and 12M forward target price of MP per share with a potential 22% return, including a 5% estimated dividend yield. OMA is Actinver s top pick of the Mexican Airports sector. The main reasons behind our BUY recommendation are: i) OMA has the most attractive valuation in the Mexican airport sector (2012E EV/EBITDA of 8.9x, vs. ASUR s 9.9x and GAP s 9.7x); ii) the company offers an EBITDA growth potential of 10% in 2012E and 12% in 2013E supported by a higher passenger traffic growth opportunity from regional routes in Mexico (Interjet and Aeromexico will expand their operations in these routes through capacity expansion and new aircraft models this year) and a potential growth in nonaeronautical and commercial projects (e.g. hotel in Monterrey s airport, Cargo City project in Monterrey among others); and, iv) attractive dividend policy (5% yield in 2012). We believe that there could be upside in our estimated total passenger traffic (TPT) figures as we are not including the likely recovery of local routes previously operated by Mexicana and Aviacsa. We are assuming that OMA s TPT will increase 4.8% in 2012 (above OMA s 2012 guidance) and 6.4% in Highest growth potential in non-aeronautical and commercial revenues in the sector. OMA implemented new initiatives in its commercial segment which include a new hotel in Monterrey s airport, a commercial and industrial park and the cargo City project also in Monterrey. The initiatives outside Monterrey s airport include the development of new commercial areas in Terminal 2 of the Mexico City Airport (AICM). We believe that these initiatives should generate new sources of revenue, which might help OMA to reach more stable operating margins during economic downturns. OMA s main operating risks include: i) dependence on one single airport as Monterrey represents 47% of OMA s TPT; ii) a macroeconomic slowdown in Mexico; iii) higher international oil prices which could bring airplane fares up and reduce traffic; iii) insecurity situation in the Northern part of the country; iv) halt flights in the Mexico City airport as a result of ash spewing from Popocatepetl volcano; and/or iv) adverse regulatory changes: Stock performance Local Ticker ADR Buy Price Target MXN 30.5 / USD 19.4 Last Price MXN 26.0 / USD 14.8 Expected Return 2012E Div. Yield Total Return Mkt. Cap (Million) Ent. Value (Million) LTM Price Range Dec-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Source: Bloomberg OMA OMA.B (BB: OMAB.US) IPC 17.3% 4.8% 22.1% MXN 10,373 MXN 11,326 ( ) The main risk to our BUY recommendation would be if: i) OMA s EBITDA growth would be lower than our estimates as a result of softest recovery in TPT; ii) bad performance in the new initiatives to increase the non-aeronautical and commercial revenues; and/or ICA s potential sale of its 54.5% stake in OMA E 2013E Estimates Operating Revenue (MXN) 1,896 2,144 2,459 2,697 2,994 Adjusted EBITDA (MXN) ,252 1,375 1,544 Adj. EBITDA margin 51.2% 43.3% 50.9% 51.0% 51.6% Net income (MXN) EPS (MXN) DPS OMA (MXN) ROE 6.3% 9.3% 10.4% 11.1% 11.7% Valuation EV/EBITDA 9.3x 10.9x 9.5x 8.9x 7.9x P/E 24.7x 27.0x 16.8x 15.5x 13.3x P/BV 1.2x 1.3x 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 11 Ramon Ortiz Concessions, Construction & Real Estate rortiz@actinver.com.mx +52 (55) x5034 Actinver Corporate Headquarters 1200 Guillermo González Camarena Floor 5, Santa Fé México, D.F
12 Valuation Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) Model (USD million) We are presenting OMA s 12M forward target price of MP /share. Our TP implies an upside potential of 17% from current trading prices, or +22% taking into account our 5% expected dividend yield for It was determined through a DCF valuation model which assumes a WACC of 10.3% (cost of equity of 11.2%, and 29% debt to total capitalization ), stock beta of 1.1, and perpetual growth of 5.0% (nominal terms). 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Perp. EBIT Taxes Tax rate 31% 29% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% NOPLAT D&A CAPEX Change in WC FCFF ,699 NPV FCFF Firm value 1,046 Net debt 80 Minority interest 1 Estimated market cap 966 ADS Equivalent Shares 49.9 Fair value / ADS (USD) 19.4 Exchange rate 12.6 Fair value / share (MXN) Target Fwd EV/EBITDA 8.6x Current price (MXN) 26.0 Upside to fair value 17.3% + Dividend yield 2012E 4.8% Total upside potential 22.1% Source: Actinver. Considering our MP per share target price, OMA would be trading at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.6x, 7% below its historical average and 5% above OMA s current forward multiple (8.2x). Valuation: Fwd EV/12M EBITDA 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x Source: Actinver. avg = 9.2x -1σ = 7.0x +1σ = 11.4x Sensitivities to our Target Price Non-Expected Change in EBITDA Non-Expected Change in Earnings EV/EBITDA 2012E Target Multiple 9.1x 9.6x 10.1x 10.6x 11.1x 15% % % % % % % PE 2012E Target Multiple 18.1x 18.6x 19.1x 19.6x 20.1x 15% % % % % % % Same as ASUR and GAP, we are including in this section sensitivity tables to account for unexpected changes in our WACC and perpetuity growth assumptions. WACC Investment Thesis: Risk Factors. Residual Growth 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 11.8% % % % % % % Other risk to our investment thesis and valuation for OMA include: relevant exposure to Mexican violence issues. Mainly in border cities (Ciudad Juarez and Reynosa) and tourist destinations (Acapulco, Zihuatanejo and Mazatlan), should prevent the company of registering a stronger PAX traffic recovery. 12
13 Forecasted Income Statement and Operating Metrics G.A. Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Operating Metrics Total Passenger Traffic (TPT) 11,588 2,692 2,912 3,159 3,010 11,773 2,896 3,042 3,311 3,094 12,342 13,138 YoY Change 0.6% -3.7% 1.1% 1.9% 7.1% 1.6% 7.6% 4.5% 4.8% 2.8% 4.8% 6.4% Domestic Passengers 9,660 2,160 2,510 2,754 2,564 9,988 2,378 2,632 2,895 2,628 10,534 11,239 International Passengers 1, , ,809 1,899 Cargo Volume Total Workload Units 12,496 2,901 3,123 3,383 3,252 12,659 3,112 3,257 3,523 3,314 13,206 14,013 Income Statement (MXN million) Total Revenue 2, , ,083 3,494 Construction Services Total Operating Revenue 2, , ,697 2,994 YoY change 13.1% 3.9% 11.6% 13.7% 29.0% 14.7% 19.6% 12.1% 9.2% 0.5% 9.7% 11.0% Aeronautical Services 1, , ,032 2,270 Non-Aeronautical Services Total Operating Costs 2, , ,061 2,331 Costs of Services + GA 1, , ,296 1,392 Personnel Security Utilities Maintenance Maintenance Provision Materials and Supplies Insurance Other Op. Expenses NH Hotel Costs D&A Govt. Concession Taxes Technical Assistance Fees Cost of Construction Other Revenue (Expenses) Operating Income (EBIT) ,028 1,163 YoY change 28.8% -14.0% -1.9% 138.9% 49.3% 27.6% 37.5% 15.5% 8.4% -7.1% 11.8% 13.2% Adjusted Operating Margin 33.6% 36.3% 36.0% 39.8% 37.2% 37.4% 41.8% 37.1% 39.5% 34.3% 38.1% 38.9% D&A Non-cash Maint. Provision Adjusted EBITDA , ,375 1,544 YoY change -4.3% -1.4% 11.0% 115.0% 51.1% 34.8% 28.6% 11.5% 7.7% -4.7% 9.8% 12.3% EBITDA Margin 43.3% 51.5% 50.2% 52.5% 49.6% 50.9% 55.3% 50.0% 51.8% 47.0% 51.0% 51.6% Net Financial Result Exceptional Items Pretax Profit (EBT) ,095 Taxes Effective Tax Rate 6.6% 34.2% 29.9% 30.3% 2.5% 22.8% 32.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.7% 29.0% Minority Interest Majority Net Income YoY change 51.0% -41.2% -32.0% 0.0% 25.5% -13.4% 59.0% 21.5% 26.8% -34.0% 8.9% 15.9% Adjusted Net Margin 33.2% 21.9% 22.0% 21.5% 33.4% 25.0% 29.1% 23.8% 24.9% 22.0% 24.9% 26.0% Shares Outstanding EPS (MXN) DPS OMA (MXN) Source: Actinver 13
14 Forecasted Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement G.A. Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. Period Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q Q12 2Q12E 3Q12E 4Q12E 2012E 2013E Balance Sheet (MXN million) Total Assets 10,454 8,529 8,612 8,946 9,302 9,302 9,605 9,279 9,552 9,782 9,782 10,478 Short Term Assets ,089 1,163 1,163 1,424 1,186 1,338 1,404 1,404 1,312 Cash and ST Investments Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Other ST Assets Long Term Assets 9,612 7,743 7,803 7,857 8,138 8,138 8,181 8,093 8,214 8,378 8,378 9,166 Net Fixed Assets 2,311 2,091 2,088 2,086 2,118 2,118 2,100 2,220 2,294 2,365 2,365 2,909 Intangible Assets 7,290 5,641 5,705 5,747 5,793 5,793 5,854 5,849 5,897 5,990 5,990 6,233 Other LT Assets Total Liabilities 2,608 2,513 2,868 3,068 3,217 3,217 3,334 3,546 3,551 3,532 3,532 3,550 Short Term Liabilities , Accounts Payable Tax Payable Short Term Debt Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities 1,867 1,823 1,822 2,409 2,557 2,557 2,506 2,817 2,814 2,807 2,807 2,770 Long Term Debt ,511 1,535 1,535 1,503 1,814 1,811 1,804 1,804 1,767 Other LT Liabilities ,021 1,021 1,003 1,003 1,003 1,003 1,003 1,003 Shareholders Funds 7,845 6,016 5,744 5,878 6,085 6,085 6,271 5,733 6,001 6,250 6,250 6,928 Minority Interest Shareholders Equity 7,838 6,009 5,737 5,871 6,077 6,077 6,264 5,726 5,994 6,243 6,243 6,920 Total Liabilities and Equity 10,454 8,529 8,612 8,946 9,302 9,302 9,605 9,279 9,552 9,782 9,782 10,478 Total debt 1,103 1,111 1,197 1,539 1,565 1,565 1,780 1,851 1,848 1,841 1,841 1,803 Net debt ,041 1, ,278 1,138 1,066 1,066 1,188 Net Debt / EBITDA 0.9x 0.9x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.7x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x ROE 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 8.9% 10.4% 10.4% 11.4% 11.9% 12.5% 11.1% 11.1% 11.7% Unlevered FCF Yield -1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.0% 4.1% 5.8% 5.8% 3.6% Levered FCF Yield -1.6% 0.3% -0.7% -0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.0% 3.0% 4.6% 4.6% 2.5% Cash Flow (MXN million) Majority Net Income D&A Other Non-Cash Items Adjusted Cash Flow ,014 1,142 Changes in Working Capital Change in Debt Capital Expenditures Dividends Other Net Cash Flow Beginning Cash Ending Cash , , Source: Actinver 14
15 Disclaimer Analyst Certification for the following Analysts: Pablo Adolfo Riveroll Sanchez Jaime Ascencio David Foulkes Karla Peña Martin Lara Pablo Duarte Ramón Ortiz Roberto Galván The analyst(s) responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on any of the securities or issuers mentioned in this document, as well as any views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s). No part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this document. Any of the business units of Grupo Actinver or its affiliates may seek to do business with any company discussed in this research document. Any past or potential future compensation received by Grupo Actinver or any of its affiliates from any issuer mentioned in this report has not had and will not have any effect our analysts compensation. However, as for any other employee of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates, our analysts compensation is affected by the overall profitability of Grupo Actinver and its affiliates. Guide to our Rating Methodology Total Expected Return on any security under coverage includes dividends and/or other forms of wealth distribution expected to be implemented by the issuers, in addition to the expected stock price appreciation or depreciation over the next twelve months based on our analysts price targets. Analysts uses a wide variety of methods to calculate price targets that, among others, include Discounted Cash Flow models, models based on expected risk-adjusted multiples, Sum-of-Parts valuation techniques, break-up scenarios and relative valuation models. Changes in our price targets and/or our recommendations. Companies under coverage are under constant surveillance and as a result of such surveillance our analysts update their models resulting in potential changes to their price targets. Changes in general business conditions potentially affecting either the cost of capital and/or growth prospects of all companies under coverage, or a given industry, or a group of industries are typical triggers for revisions to our price targets and/or recommendations. Other micro- and macroeconomic events could materially affect the overall prospects of an individual company under coverage and, as a result, such event-driven factors could lead to changes in our price targets and/or recommendation of the company affected. Even if our overall expectations for a given company under coverage have not materially changed, our recommendations are subject to revision if the stock price has changed significantly, as it will affect total expected return. Terms such as "price targets, our price targets, total expected return, analyst's price targets or any other similar phrase are used in this document as complementary to our recommendation or as a condition that could change in our point of view and, according to article 188 of Securities Market Act, do not imply in any way that Actinver, its agents, or its related companies are in any form providing assurance or guarantee, nor assuming any responsibility for the risks associated with any investment in the discussed securities. Recommendations for companies, both in the Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPyC) Index and also not belonging to the index. For stocks, we have three possible recommendations: a) BUY, b) HOLD or c) SELL. A stock classified as BUY is expected to yield returns at least 5% above than that of the IPyC Index. Stocks rated as HOLD are expected to yield returns similar to the IPyC Index, within a range of +5/-5%. Many of the companies within this range are often times solid companies which have reached their potential in a short amount of time and should still be considered as a good investment. Stocks rated as SELL are expected to yield returns below 5% of the IPyC Index. Rating Distribution as of December 21, 2011 All Companies in the BMV BUY: 70% HOLD: 22% SELL: 8% 15
GRUMA, S.A.B. DE C.V. Management Targeting 14% EBITDA margin, up from 12.1% in February 27, 2014
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