Bharat Forge. Near term pressures. Company Report

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1 Change in Estimates Rating Target Bharat Forge Near term pressures We attended the analyst meet of Bharat Forge wherein the management outlined its strategy to achieve the goals set for FY18. The goals set include 1) attaining standalone revenues of Rs7,cr by FY18, 2) Maintain EBIDTA margins at the current levels and 3) continue to improve return ratios. In the near term, however, the company sees pressure coming in from the US truck market where it sees a fall in 216. These will be offset by incremental business from existing players and ramp up in business from new OEMs. The company sees strong business flow from the passenger car segment which currently contributes only 5% of the revenues. The company sees this increasing to 15% over the next few quarters. This will be driven by efforts to enter the transmission segment along with incremental product developments of its traditional products. The management is bullish on the Make in India campaign and sees strong traction arising from it from next year onwards for segments such as Mining, Power, Railways, Marine and Defense. The company has developed expertise in the aerospace components business and sees substantial opportunity in replacing imports of components by HAL. Even in terms of Defense it sees large opportunities to replace the import of components. To factor in the near term slowdown we are cutting our estimates for revenues by ~8% for FY16, FY17 and FY18 each. Also our EBIDTA estimates have been cut by ~5% for each year and PAT estimates by ~7%. We cut our 1 year target to Rs85 from Rs91 earlier and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Financial summary Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenues 7,625 8,7 9,268 1,792 yoy growth (%) Operating profit 1,441 1,646 1,914 2,245 OPM (%) Pre exceptional PAT ,215 Reported PAT ,215 yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) Price/Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Source: Company, India Infoline Research Rating: Sector: Sector view: Auto Component Positive Sensex: 25,56 52 Week h/l (Rs): 1363 / 773 Market cap (Rscr) : 18,643 6m Avg vol ( Nos): 958 Bloomberg code: BHFC IS BSE code: 5493 NSE code: BHARATFORG FV (Rs): 2 Price as on December 9, 215 Company rating grid Earnings Growth Cash Flow B/S Strength Valuation appeal Risk Share price trend Accumulate Target: Rs85 CMP: Rs793 Upside: 7.2% Low High BHARATFORG Sensex Dec 14 Apr 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Share holding pattern % Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Promoters Insti Others Research Analyst: Prayesh Jain research@indiainfoline.com December 1, 215 This report is published by IIFL India Private Clients research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets. Company Report

2 Key takeaways from the analyst meet The company expects to maintain FY15 revenues run rate in FY16. Huge drop in the oil and gas business will be offset by increase in passenger car, railways and aerospace verticals. On the US CV front, the company expects 6 decline in volumes in the next year but sees this getting offset by increasing market share of its key customers and business ramp up in its newly acquired OEM customer. So far the traditional business of Bharat Forge was focussed on axles, connecting rods and crankshafts. Transmission related products were not addressed as these products require high quality heat treatment and other capabilities. These are being acquired now and also the company is adding machining capabilities for the same. The company believes that the transmission business potential is much larger than its traditional business. In terms of Aerospace business, the company has started supplies to large OEMs and sees this business ramping up at a steady pace. The management apprised that HAL imports parts worth Rs1,cr per annum which it aims to replace through the Make in India campaign. The company is close to acquiring a major contract in the near future. Even in the defense and mining segments lot of components are imported which Bharat Forge aims to replace via the Make in India campaign. With renewable energy demand increasing at a rapid pace in India and global markets, the company sees large potential for business from the segment. In the defense segment, revenue items traction has started with volume increasing for existing products and new components getting approvals. Artillery products being tested right now and five programs are in the process of evaluation. Each of the program is worth US$1bn but the duration for getting approvals is quite long. Bharat Forge is on four of these programs and has capacities and capabilities to serve this demand. In the railways segment, lot of forging components of locomotives are imported. With GE being the key supplier of locomotives and Bharat Forge being a leading vendor for GE for such products globally, the India business also provides a large business opportunity. The company sees marked increase in its passenger car business contribution from 5% currently to about 15% in about 18 months. This will be driven by shift in the transmission for passenger cars from 5 gears to 9 gears wherein an incremental demand for four gears and two shafts the capacity for which is limited currently. Here, the company plans to entrench with the domestic OEMs first, then build scale from global orders and then if need be set up a manufacturing facility abroad. It is not only focussing on diesel and gasoline transmission components but also hybrid transmission components where it sees large opportunities particularly so in the western world. The company sees large potential in the passenger car business as the number of cars sold globally every year are nearly 1x of commercial vehicles sold every year. Also the complexity of component is higher for passenger cars which require higher value addition. 2

3 In the oil & gas business, while the company is facing pressure because of capex cuts by its customers, the company is hopeful of increasing market share by supplying cost effective offerings. The pressure is from the shale gas business while the deep water and ultra deep water is seeing increasing investments towards the safety requirements. Acquisition of Bodycote by Kalyani group was a part of the strategy to scale up technological capabilities in manufacturing components for aerospace and manufacturing components from exotic materials. Bodycote is one of best heat treatment companies in the world and has capabilities for components for aerospace, hospital equipments etc. With regards to the inorganic activities, the company with a healthy balance sheet has started looking at opportunities. The philosophy will be 1) they don t need any incremental capacity and 2) will not acquire any company which is low on technology capabilities. Over the past five years the increase in margins has been on the back of the non auto segment wherein the company developed its own technology rather than purchasing it. Similar efforts are being made for defense segment now. Also the company apprised that most of the product development expenses are written off as revenue expenditure which leads to front loading of expenses. Overall, the company believes that it can sustain the current level of margins in the medium term. Overseas subsidiaries have improved their performance in the recent past by changing the product mix through increasing contribution of aluminium components and entering into hybrid technology. Further improvement in performance can be expected in the next year as full benefits of these measures are reaped. The company has target to reach 1 to 12% EBIDTA margins for the subsidiaries. The company sees higher growth in domestic market due to products which were never manufactured earlier driven by Make in India campaign. BFL engagement across various sectors Sector Truck Passenger car Construction Mining Agriculture Oil & Gas Aerospace Source: Company, India Infoline Research 3

4 Change in outlook for various segments from November 215 to December 215 R India North America Europe Nov 15 Dec 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Commercial Vehicles Passenger Vehicles High End Passenger Vehicles Mass Market Oil & Gas Construction Mining Aerospace Renewables Source: Company, India Infoline Research Revenue enhancement strategy Segment TRUCKS CARS CONSTRUCT / MINING LOCO OIL & GAS Revenue enhancement strategy Quick response for NPD and execution in serial production Increase market share with existing customers India & Global (known products) Broaden product offering. Add new customers in India and Global Develop new products. Value Addition : Forging > Machining Pursue closely with customers for any immediate opportunity within known basket of parts. Complete approvals for engine components with OEM s. Other forgings under development Trial order for new product/ assembly expected Grow export business on existing products. Road map in place and Actions initiated. Targeting components services business. Actions initiated. Preparing for the next upturn Strong customer alignment being developed. Penetrate sub sea no current share. Customer activity initiated Identified new areas of business where exotic material is used, will provide good value addition potential. Add value to current products by providing more processing activities. Will enhance stickiness quotient and potentially add volume and revenue. First time ever for an OEM to outsource! Renewed focus on renewable sector RENEWABLE Focus on new product development & value added products Source: Company, India Infoline Research 4

5 US Class 8 truck orders indicate a decline in future truck sales US Class 8 truck sales bear a strong correlation with Class 8 truck orders, albeit with a lag of 6 months. The correlation is as high as 6%. Class 8 truck orders have been declining in the past eight months and declined by 45.2% yoy in October 215. Class 8 truck sales reported a decline for the first time in 26 months in October 215. This we believe will result in a steep decline in class 8 trucks which account for substantial portion of Bharat Forge s overall revenues. However, the company believes that increasing market share of existing customers and ramp up of business from a new customer will act as cushion in the current weakness. US Class 8 trucks seeing sharp fall in volumes Order flows for Class 8 trucks fall even steeper 3, US Class 8 sales 12 45, US Class 8 orders 5 25, 1 8 4, 35, 4 2, 6 3, 3 15, , 2, 2 1, 15, 1 5, 2 4 1, 5, 6 1 Correlation between US Class 8 sales and US Class 8 orders US Class 8 sales US Class 8 orders 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan 9 May 9 Sep 9 Jan 1 May 1 Sep 1 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 May 12 Sep 12 May 13 Sep 13 May 14 Sep 14 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research 5

6 Europe on the other hand showing reasonable growth In contrast to the US, European Union is showing good growth in its automotive sales. The passenger car sales have shown a yoy decline only twice in the past couple of years. Heavy commercial vehicles have seen an average growth of 19 in CY15 so far, while LCVs have not seen a single yoy decline in the past two years. Going ahead too, the company is optimistic about commercial vehicles and high end passenger car sales in Europe. The company is also looking to get into the transmission products, which currently are not material contributors to the revenue. Heavy commercial vehicles in EU seeing decent growth so are the LCVs Heavy Commercial Vehicle EU Light Commercial Vehicle EU 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, , 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research Passenger car seeing a steady growth in demand EU Passenger Car 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan 9 May 9 Sep 9 Jan 1 May 1 Sep 1 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 May 12 Sep 12 May 13 Sep 13 May 14 Sep 14 May 15 Sep Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research 6

7 Indian passenger car and M&HCV demand on strong footing Demand for passenger car in India has been growing at a robust pace in the past one year mainly driven by improving consumer sentiment, cut in interest rates, falling fuel prices, attractive discounts and new model launches by the OEMs. The trend is expected to continue in the medium term. On the M&HCV side, the demand growth has been very strong which has been due to revival in industrial activity, increase in infrastructure spends, part lifting of mining bans, cut in interest rates and falling fuel prices. These trends are likely to sustain over the medium term creating strong demand for heavy commercial vehicles. LCVs however have been on a weak footing. Nevertheless, we expect demand for LCVs to revive as rapid urbanization and increasing organized retail penetration will cause higher demand for last mile connectivity. All these segments will create strong demand prospects for Bharat Forge s products. M&HCVs seeing sharp jump in volumes LCVs on a weak footing but recovering M&HCVs LCVs 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Passenger car demand growing at steady rate Pass cars 35, 4 3, 3 25, 2 2, 1 15, 1, 1 5, 2 3 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 1 Jun 1 Nov 1 Apr 11 Sep 11 Feb 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 Aug 14 Jun 15 Jan 1 Jun 1 Nov 1 Apr 11 Sep 11 Feb 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 Aug 14 Jun 15 Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research Source: SIAM, India Infoline Research 7

8 Cutting estimates but retain Accumulate rating The stock has seen a steep correction of 4% since September 215 driven by a slowdown in the US Class 8 truck orders and steep valuations. We are cutting our estimates to factor in the near term slowdown. Estimates for revenues have been cut by ~8% for FY16, FY17 and FY18 each. Also our EBIDTA estimates have been cut by ~5% for each year and PAT estimates by ~7%. We cut our 1 year target to Rs85 from Rs91 earlier and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Post correction valuations at reasonable levels CMP 1x 15x 2x 25x 3x 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Mar 1 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Trading close to average P/E multiple P/E 2 sd 1 sd Avg 1 sd + 2 sd Apr 1 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Source: Bloomberg, India Infoline Research Revision to estimates Revised Previous FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenues 8,7 9,268 1,792 8,727 1,113 11,785 yoy growth (%) Operating profit 1,646 1,914 2,245 1,73 2,15 2,368 OPM (%) Reported PAT , ,6 1,299 yoy growth (%) EPS (Rs) Debt/Equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Source: Company, India Infoline Research 8

9 Peer comparison CMP Target Mkt Cap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE D/E (Rs) (Rs) Upside (Rs Cr) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15 FY15 Amara Raja % 14, Apollo Tyres % 7, Ashok Leyland % 24, Bajaj Auto 2,39 2,55 6.7% 69, Bharat Forge % 18, Bosch 18,34 2, 9.1% 57, Eicher 15,724 19, 2.8% 42, Exide % 11, Greaves Cotton % 3, Hero Motocorp 2,547 3, 17.8% 5, Kirloskar Oil % 3, M&M 1,313 1,5 14.3% 81, Maruti 4,477 5,2 16.1% 135, MM Forgings % Motherson Sumi % 24, MRF 39,41 45, 15.3% 16,558 2, ,8.4 4, Tata Motors % 113, TVS Motors % 12, TVS Srichakra 2,72 3,5 28.7% 2, Source: Company, India Infoline Research 9

10 Financials Income statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue 7,625 8,7 9,268 1,792 Operating profit 1,441 1,646 1,914 2,245 Depreciation (362) (49) (422) (434) Interest expense (136) (149) (131) (113) Other income Profit before tax 1,8 1,189 1,462 1,798 Taxes (359) (399) (49) (61) Minorities and other Adj. profit ,215 Exceptional items 43 Net profit ,215 Balance sheet Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Equity capital Reserves 3,398 4,25 5,195 6,41 Net worth 3,444 4,252 5,242 6,456 Minority interest (2) Debt 2,365 1,652 1,452 1,252 Deferred tax liab (net) Total liabilities 5,971 6,68 6,858 7,873 Fixed assets 3,434 2,778 2,556 2,322 Investments Net working capital 1,36 1,327 1,339 1,348 Inventories 1,34 1,86 1,257 1,463 Sundry debtors ,37 1,28 Other current assets 1,682 1,752 1,822 1,892 Sundry creditors (1,965) (2,63) (2,388) (2,781) Other current liabilities (299) (344) (389) (434) Cash 736 1,468 2,467 3,77 Total assets 5,971 6,68 6,858 7,873 Cash flow statement Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit before tax 1,8 1,189 1,462 1,798 Depreciation Tax paid (359) (399) (49) (61) Working capital (774) (21) (12) (1) Other operating items Operating cashflow 39 1,178 1,382 1,622 Capital expenditure (685) 247 (2) (2) Free cash flow (376) 1,425 1,182 1,422 Equity raised 1,22 1,226 1,226 1,226 Investments 36 Debt financing/disposal 357 (712) (2) (2) Dividends paid (1,226) (1,226) (1,226) (1,226) Other items Net in cash ,24 Key ratios Y/e 31 Mar FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Growth matrix (%) Revenue growth Op profit growth EBIT growth Net profit growth Profitability ratios (%) OPM EBIT margin Net profit margin RoCE RoNW RoA Per share ratios EPS Dividend per share Cash EPS Book value per share Valuation ratios P/E P/CEPS P/BV EV/EBIDTA Payout (%) Dividend payout Tax payout Liquidity ratios Debtor days Inventory days Creditor days Leverage ratios Interest coverage Net debt / equity.5. (.2) (.4) Net debt / op. profit (.5) (1.1) Du Pont Analysis Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Tax burden (x) Interest burden (x) EBIT margin (x) Asset turnover (x) Financial leverage (x) RoE (%)

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