2017 Container Shipping Outlook - A tragedy in three acts
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1 217 Container Shipping Outlook - A tragedy in three acts Alan Murphy CEO and Co-Founder SeaIntel Maritime Analysis June 1 st, 217 ESPO Barcelona 217 1
2 SeaIntel Container Shipping Analysts - Founded January 1 st, Fully independent, private company with no interests from brokers, banks or others Analysts, Developers & Consultants in Copenhagen and Hong Kong. - Management Team with combined 35 years of experience in Container Shipping Core values: - Integrity - Methodology - Assumptions - Data Quality Major Milestones: - 9+ Research & Analysis articles published since March 211-5,+ citations in Industry Press (Lloyd s List, JoC, etc.) - Official Knowledge Partner of the Global Institute of Logistics - World s most comprehensive database on Carrier Reliability - Curriculum provider at the World Maritime University - Curriculum provider at the Blue MBA at Copenhagen Business School 2
3 SeaIntel subscription reports SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight (SSS) - Weekly Global Liner Performance (GLP) report - Monthly Tradelane Capacity Outlook (TCO) report - Weekly Weekly report on relevant container market analysis Quantitative insights into important market drivers Regular topics include: Supply/Demand, deployment patterns, freight rate analysis, environmental issues, reliability, and much more World s largest study of carrier ontime performance Report covering 65+ carriers, 3+ distinct carrier services/loops, 3+ ports, across 34 trade lanes 116 pages including global carrier performance Top2 and niche operators, benchmarking alliances and detailed trade performance 12-week future outlook on container space supply Most accurate and updated capacity deployment figures for 23 trade lanes between Asia, Europe, North and South America Based on actual vessel schedules of individual named vessels on all services in the trade lanes 3
4 Prologue: 8 Years of over-supply 4
5 Gap in Supply/Demand opened in 29 Index Supply/Demand growth on Index basis, adjusted for structural factor Demand Supply Supply, Adj. 5
6 Freight rates were down, starting to come up 6
7 USD/TEU Freight rate volatility is through the roof USD USD 1 +4 USD +4 USD +4 USD +5 USD +5 USD +6 USD +7 USD Asia-N.Europe Spot Rates and Announced Increases +35 USD +35 USD +525 USD +575 USD +5 USD +45 USD +95 USD Rate data based on SCFI from Shanghai Shipping Exchange +75 USD +95 USD +425 USD +525 USD +5 USD +525 USD +5 USD +55 USD +55 USD +475 USD +55 USD +7 USD +85 USD +55 USD +8 USD +1 USD +525USD +575 USD +6USD +1 USD +55 USD +3 USD +8 USD +92 USD +95 USD +92 USD +1 USD +95 USD +9 USD +74 USD +48 USD +75 USD +9 USD +11 USD +5 USD +95 USD +42 USD +3 USD +7 USD 7
8 Carriers P&L were the worst years since 29 in terms of over-capacity, tanking freight rates, weak demand, price wars and rate erosions, etc. - Why did they end up with a profit of 2.7 bn USD for 215? And why a 1.1bn loss in 216? 8
9 Carriers P&L per Transported TEU USD/TEU P&L per TEU,
10 Carriers Q2 P&L Q1 was better than the period in 216, but that is really the only positive spin - It is not as bad as last year does not mean that everything is going great. - The larger carriers seem to be handling it better, ML still expecting a positive FY
11 Prologue II: Impact of BAF-delay 11
12 Impact of oil price and BAF delay USD/MT 8 TSA Bunker Price (USD/MT) vs. TSA BAF (USD/FFE) - Asia-USWC USD/FFE Source: Bunkerworld, TSA Carriers TSA Bunker price - Asia-USWC TSA BAF, Asia-USWC, USD/FFE 1 - Bunker oil prices lead BAF charges by approximately 3 months - When oil prices fall, carrier get a cash injection as their BAF only drops 1-2 quarters later - When oil prices rise, carriers have a cash drain, as costs go up but the BAF is delayed 12
13 Impact of oil price and BAF delay II USD/MT TSA Bunker Price (USD/MT) vs. TSA BAF (USD/FFE) - Asia-USWC Source: Bunkerworld, TSA Carriers, World Bank TSA Bunker Bunker Est. WB Crude Crude Est. USD/bbl Using crude oil forecasts from the World Bank, we can create a forecast of Bunker Oil prices - The two variables are very strongly correlated 13
14 Billion USD Impact of oil price and BAF delay III 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, -,5-1, -1,5 Industry Cash Flow effect from BAF delay 2,5 2,44 1,27 1,19,99,25,16 -,17 -,17 -,18 -,16 -,1 -,2 -,9-,9 -,35 -,16 -,17 -,18 -,57 -,62 -,57 -,83-1, saw a net cash injection of 4.13 bn USD to the industry saw a cash drain of bn USD in Q2-Q4-217-Q1 will be challenging with a cash drain of 57M USD - FY 218 will see 35M USD cash drain, while FY is projected at 16-18M USD 14
15 Act 1: Service disruptions, blank sailings and Schedule Reliability 15
16 Visualizing service launches and suspensions I 16
17 Blank sailings
18 Visualizing blanks sailings I Active services in Asia-North Europe 18
19 Global Reliability Developments 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% Global developments In April 217, global schedule reliability reversed its upward trend and declined by 4. percentage points to 71.4%. On a Y/Y level, the Arpil 217 global average was down 12. percentage points compared to April 216. Schedule reliability in April 217 was based on 13,31 vessel arrivals. N.B.: Starting from September 215, we have introduced a new feature to measure vessel arrival delays. Importantly, the chart below to the right shows the average delay based ONLY on the vessels that are recorded as being late. The global average delay for LATE vessel arrivals continued its positive trend and decreased further by.22 days over March 217 to reach 3.45 days in April 217. However, the average delays showed a Y/Y increase of.51 days compared to the delays of 2.94 days that were recorded in April last year. Global schedule reliability Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Global Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 76.7% 79.9% 83.4% 85.5% 85.9% 84.8% 85.4% 85.5% 84.6% 83.4% 78.9% Schedule % 72.2% 75.4% 71.4% Reliability Change -9.9% -4.5% -4.5% -12.% Avg. delay of LATE vessels Change Global - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20 Aug/11 Jan/12 Jun/12 Nov/12 Apr/13 Sep/13 Feb/14 Jul/14 Dec/14 May/15 Oct/15 Mar/16 Aug/16 Jan/17 Schedule Reliability Avg. delay of LATE vessels Asia-North Europe Trade Developments Asia North Europe developments April schedule reliability in the Asia-North Europe trade lane continued the upward trend and increased by 7.3 percentage points to 72.4%. On a Y/Y level the on-time performance decreased by 7.1 percentage points, from when reliability was equal to 79.5%. The average delay for LATE vessel arrivals increased by.13 days from 3.93 days in March to 4.6 days in April. Nonetheless, the average delay for ALL vessel arrivals dropped by.32 days M/M, reaching 1.23 days in April. The best performing carriers were Evergreen and COSCO with a reliability score of 82.5%, while UASC followed with 81.5%. 1% 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% 5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 65.5% 64.3% 79.5% 85.9% 84.4% 84.6% 84.3% 84.2% 85.7% 82.6% 78.1% % 63.3% 65.1% 72.4% Change -2.8% -2.2%.8% -7.1% Change Asia - North Europe schedule reliability Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ,5 2, Average delay for ALL vessel arrivals Asia - North Europe - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
21 Asia-Mediterranean Trade Developments Aug/11 Jan/12 Jun/12 Nov/12 Apr/13 Sep/13 Feb/14 Jul/14 Dec/14 May/15 Oct/15 Mar/16 Aug/16 Jan/17 Asia - Mediterranean developments In April, schedule reliability in the Asia-Mediterranean trade lane increased significantly by 8.2 percentage points to 68.4%. Nonetheless, the April score corresponds to a decrease of 13.2 percentage points compared to 81.6% recorded in April last year. The average delay for LATE vessel arrivals decreased by.75 days to 3.51 days M/M and rose by.59 days on a Y/Y level. The average delay for ALL vessel arrivals decreased by.53 days from March to 1.23 days in April. In the trade COSCO was the top performing carrier with a reliability score of 76.4%, followed by Evergreen at 75.7%, UASC at 75.%, and Yang Ming at 74.9% Average delay for ALL vessel arrivals 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% Schedule Reliability Avg. delay of LATE vessels Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 82.7% 8.8% 81.6% 84.1% 87.7% 84.9% 81.3% 87.9% 88.6% 82.7% 76.4% % 58.7% 6.2% 68.4% Change -18.% -24.% -2.6% -13.2% Change Asia - Mediterranean schedule reliability 4,5 3,5 2,5 4 3 Asia - Mediterranean - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
22 Act 2: New Mega-Alliances 22
23 Alliances are not a new thing Source: Wang, Mariner: The Formation of Shipping Conference and Rise of Shipping Alliances International Journal of Business, Vol. 6, issue 5,
24 They just controlled much less capacity Source: Lu, Cheng and Lee (26): AN EVALUATION OF STRATEGIC ALLIANCES IN LINER SHIPPING - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CKYH, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp (26) MSC Maersk Line UASC CSCL CMA CGM Global TEU Fleet K Line Yang Ming Hanjin Evergreen COSCO HMM NYK APL MOL OOCL Hapag-Lloyd 2M O3 CKYHE G6 On 1/1/25, Alliance carriers controlled: GA: 1,12,197 TEU 12.2% CKYH: 935,611 TEU 1.3% NWA: 669,478 TEU 7.3% TOTAL: 2,77,286 TEU 29.8% On 1/1/21, Alliance carriers controlled: GA: TEU 8.9% CKYH: TEU 11.2% NWA: TEU 8.7% TOTAL: 2,77,286 TEU 28.8% In 215, six carriers entered alliance : Maersk Line (1 st ), MSC (2 nd ), CMA CGM (3 rd ), Evergreen(5 th ), CSCL (7 th ) & UASC (15 th ) On 1/1/216, Alliance carriers controlled: 2M: TEU 28.1% G6: TEU 17.6% CKYHE: TEU 16.5% O3: TEU 14.2% TOTAL: TEU 76.4% 24
25 What are the new (April 217) alliances? 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 7 th 12 th 5 th 6 th 9 th 14 th 17 th 4 th 1 th 11 th 13 th 15 th 16 th April 216 2M Alliance Ocean Three CKYHE G6 Alliance May 216 (announced) 2M Alliance 1 st 2 nd Ocean Alliance 3 rd 4 th 5 th 9 th THE Alliance 12 th 6 th 8 th 11 th 13 th 14 th 16 th 1 th 15 th April 217 (reality) 2 nd 1 st 2M Alliance 11 th Ocean Alliance 4 th 7 th 8 th 3 rd 5 th 9 th 6 th THE Alliance F+O TEU 3.19M 4.25M.47M 2.22M 1.31M.71M 2.37M 1.74M.68M 1.53M 25
26 Alliance Capacity Market Shares 14 No. of weekly services in TP & AE 2. Weighted average vessel size per trade lane Asia-N. Europe Asia-MED Asia-USEC Asia-USWC Asia-N. Europe Asia-MED Asia-USEC Asia-USWC The Alliance 2M Ocean Alliance The Alliance 2M Ocean Alliance 12. Weekly average capacity in TP & AE 1% Alliance Capacity Maket Shares in TP & AE 1. 8% 8. 6% % 2. 2% % Asia-N. Europe Asia-MED Asia-USEC Asia-USWC Asia-N. Europe Asia-MED Asia-USEC Asia-USWC The Alliance 2M Ocean Alliance 2M The Alliance Ocean Alliance 26
27 Act 3: Consolidation 27
28 Capacity (TEU) Capacity (TEU) Capacity (TEU) The level of consolidation is unprecedented Disappearances in top-2 Jan Dec Disappearances in top-2 Jan 2 - Dec Disappearances in top-2 Jan present day 28
29 The level of consolidation is unprecedented Maersk MSC CMA CGM Evergreen Hapag-Lloyd COSCO CSCL Hamburg Süd Hanjin OOCL MOL UASC APL Yang Ming NYK HMM K Line Zim PIL Wan Hai Fleet Order ML/HS MSC CMA CGM COSCON J3 HL/UASC Evergreen OOCL Yang Ming PIL HMM Zim Wan Hai Maersk Line CMA CGM APL COSCO CSCL MOL NYK K Hapag-Lloyd UASC HS Fleet Order 29
30 Epilogue: Forecast for
31 Rate erosion better on all trades, except Asia-USWC -5-1 Asia-North Europe 12-week Average rate erosion -5-1 Asia-Mediterranean 12-week Average rate erosion Asia-USWC 12-week Average rate erosion Asia-USEC 12-week Average rate erosion
32 CCFI Index (1998=1) CCFI Index (1998=1) SCFI: USD/FFE CCFI Index (1998 = 1) 216/17 TP Contracts were set too low Fig.1: SCFI versus CCFI on US West Coast % 85% 8% 75% 7% Fig.2: SCFI-CCFI Correlation Weeks in advance (SCFI vs CCFI) SCFI-USWC Fig.3: USWC vs model CCFI-USWC USWC USEC Fig.4: USEC vs model Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 CCFI-USWC Predicted USWC CCFI-USEC Predicted USEC 32
33 216/17 TP Contracts were set too low,3,2,1 -,1 -,2 -,3 Fig.5: Deviation from SCFI model indication -,4 Mar-9 Mar-1 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 USWC deviation 12 week average Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 USEC deviation 12 week average 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% Fig.7: USWC deviation from model 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% 15% 1% -5% % 5% -1% -15% -2% -25% Fig.6: USWC contract rate deviation from model Weeks into the contract May'9-Apr'1 May'1-Apr'11 May'11-Apr'12 May'12-Apr'13 May'13-Apr'14 May'14-Apr'15 May'15-Apr'16 May'16-Apr'17 Fig.8: USEC deviation from model 33
34 Demand index (211 = 1) Nautical miles Shorter sailing distances has weakened demand Average sailing distance per TEU Global demand development TEU demand TEU Miles demand 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,%,% Annual demand growth TEU TEU Miles World GDP 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% AE 1.6% 1.9% 2.% EMDE 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% World Trade 1.9% 3.8% 4.1% AE 2.% 3.6% 3.8% EMDE 1.9% 4.% 4.7% AE = Advanced economies. EMDE = Emerging market and developing economies 34
35 Total Fleet (Mio TEU) Capacity Outlook Annual growth Nominal TEU capacity Confirmed orderbook less scrappings Large vessels as share of total fleet Global Fleet Capacity Annual Fleet Growth 1% 5% % -5% 3% 2% 1% % >18 TEU TEU Trade (demand) growth 6% 4% 2% % Container volume (CTS) Merchandize trade (WTO) Necessary scrapping to maintain status quo Low growth Average growth High growth 35
36 Thank you! SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight: Annual subscription (52 issues) - 16 Global Liner Performance: Annual subscription (12 issues) - 18 Tradelane Capacity Outlook: Annual subscription (52 issues) - 2 If you wish to subscribe, please contact: Mr Giulio Gentilezza: gg@seaintel.com Mr Imaad Asad: ia@seaintel.com 36
2017 Container Shipping Outlook - A tragedy in three acts
217 Container Shipping Outlook - A tragedy in three acts Alan Murphy CEO and Co-Founder SeaIntel Maritime Analysis March 21 st, 217 ILSS 217 1 SeaIntel Container Shipping Analysts - Founded January 1 st,
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