Quant Briefing: Earnings Surprise Monitor

Transcription

1 Quant Briefing: Earnings Monitor February 7, 18 Dr. Ed Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary 1 S&P // Earnings for Current Quarter S&P // Revenue for Current Quarter 3 S&P // Change in Shares Outstanding S&P Revenue & Earnings % S&P Revenue & Earnings % of Companies +/- S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-energy 7 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-financials 8 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-energy 9 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-financials 1 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s 11-1 S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s 13-1 S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue 1 February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

3 - S&P Earnings & Revenue Summary - Table 1A: S&P Earnings (as of February 7, 18) % Earnings % Y/Y Earnings % With Positive % With Negative % With Positive Y/Y % With Negative Y/Y # Companies Reported Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q-9.9 -/ Q Q na na Table 1B: S&P Revenue % Revenue % Y/Y Revenue % With Positive % With Negative % With Positive Y/Y % With Negative Y/Y # Companies Reported Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q na na % surprise = difference between actual and consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Page 1 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

4 - S&P // Earnings for Current Quarter - Table A: S&P Indexes Aggregate Earnings Q-17 (as of February 7, 18) Sector % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS (%) Actual Y/Y EPS (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS On Target EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Negative Y/Y EPS Flat Y/Y EPS S&P LargeCap S&P MidCap S&P SmallCap LargeCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities MidCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities SmallCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Table B: Slices & Dices Sector/Industries % EPS Expected Y/Y EPS (%) Actual Y/Y EPS (%) % Companies Reported Positive EPS Negative EPS On Target EPS Positive Y/Y EPS Negative Y/Y EPS Flat Y/Y EPS LargeCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation S&P Industrials ex-ge S&P ex-apple Information Technology ex-apple MidCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation SmallCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

5 - S&P // Revenue for Current Quarter - Table 3A: S&P Indexes Aggregate Revenue Q-17 (as of February 7, 18) Sector % Expected Y/Y (%) Actual Y/Y (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative On Target Positive Y/Y Negative Y/Y Flat Y/Y S&P LargeCap S&P MidCap S&P SmallCap LargeCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities MidCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities SmallCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Table 3B: Slices & Dices Sector/Industries % Expected Y/Y (%) Actual Y/Y (%) % Companies Reported Positive Negative On Target Positive Y/Y Negative Y/Y Flat Y/Y LargeCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation S&P Industrials ex-ge S&P ex-apple Information Technology ex-apple MidCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation SmallCap S&P ex-energy S&P ex-financials & Real Estat S&P ex-tech S&P Retail Composite S&P Discretionary Retail S&P Staples Retail S&P Industrials Composite S&P Transportation Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page 3 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

6 - S&P // Change in Shares Outstanding - Table : S&P Indexes Changes in Shares Outstanding (as of February 7, 18) Sector # companies with share data for Q-17 Y/Y % change in shares % cos with falling shares o/s y/y % cos with share o/s down >% y/y Q/Q % change in shares % cos with falling shares o/s q/q % cos with share o/s down >% q/q S&P LargeCap S&P MidCap S&P SmallCap LargeCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities MidCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities SmallCap Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research. Page / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

7 3. 3. Figure 1. - S&P Revenue & Earnings % - S&P NET REVENUE SURPRISE* (percent) Q * Percentage that S&P companies reported revenues above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Figure. S&P NET EARNINGS SURPRISE* (percent) 1 1 Q * Percentage that S&P companies reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Earnings surprise capped at -% during Q-8. Page / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

8 1 8 - S&P Revenue & Earnings % of Companies +/- - Figure 3. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVENUE SURPRISES* (percent of companies) Q Q * Percentage of S&P companies that reported revenues above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. 1 8 Figure. S&P POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES* (percent of companies) Q Q * Percentage of S&P companies that reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Page / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

9 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-energy - Figure. QUARTERLY REVENUE SURPRISE* (percent) S&P (1.3) S&P Energy (.7) S&P ex-energy (1.) Percent Attributable to Energy (.3) * Percentage amount that revenues were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. Figure. QUARTERLY EARNINGS SURPRISE* (percent) S&P (.) S&P Energy (8.) S&P ex-energy (.3) Percent Attributable to Energy (.1) * Percentage amount that earnings were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. Page 7 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

10 3 1 - S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-financials - Figure 7. QUARTERLY REVENUE SURPRISE* (percent) S&P (1.3) S&P Financials (1.9) S&P ex-financials (1.) Percent Attributable to Financials (.1) * Percentage amount that revenues were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. 3 Figure 8. QUARTERLY EARNINGS SURPRISE* (percent) S&P (.) S&P Financials (.) S&P ex-financials (.1) capped at % and -% due to extreme values. Percent Attributable to Financials (.3) * Percentage amount that earnings were above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. Page 8 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

11 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-energy - Figure 9. QUARTERLY REVENUE GROWTH* (percent) S&P (.8) S&P Energy (19.3) S&P ex-energy (.) Percentange Points Attributable to Energy (1.) Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc Figure 1. QUARTERLY EARNINGS GROWTH* (percent) S&P (8.1) S&P Energy (.) S&P ex-energy (.) capped at % and -% due to extreme values. Percentange Points Attributable to Energy (.1) Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc Page 9 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

12 S&P Revenue & Earnings ex-financials - Figure 11. QUARTERLY REVENUE GROWTH* (percent) S&P (.8) S&P Financials (.3) S&P ex-financials (.3) Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. Percentage Points Attributable to Financials (-.) Figure 1. QUARTERLY EARNINGS GROWTH* (percent) S&P (8.1) S&P Financials (-.) S&P ex-financials (11.) capped at % and -% due to extreme values. Percent Points Attributable to Financials (-3.1) contribution capped at % and -% due to extreme values Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Yardeni Research Inc. - - Page 1 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

13 - S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s Figure 13. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY earnings surprise (%) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) CONSUMER STAPLES CONSUMER STAPLES ENERGY ENERGY FINANCIALS FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE Page 11 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

14 - S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings s Figure 1. INDUSTRIALS earnings surprise (%) INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative earnings surprise (percent) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES UTILITIES Page 1 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

15 - S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - Figure. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY revenue surprise (%) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) CONSUMER STAPLES CONSUMER STAPLES ENERGY ENERGY FINANCIALS FINANCIALS HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE Page 13 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

16 - S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue s - - Figure 1. INDUSTRIALS revenue surprise (%) INDUSTRIALS % of companies with positive and negative revenue surprise (percent) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MATERIALS MATERIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES UTILITIES UTILITIES Page 1 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

17 - S&P Sectors Quarterly Earnings Figure 17. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY y/y earnings growth (%) INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY Capped at 1% and -1% due to extreme values MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Page / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

18 18 1 Figure S&P Sectors Quarterly Revenue - CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY y/y revenue growth (%) INDUSTRIALS CONSUMER STAPLES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ENERGY MATERIALS FINANCIALS TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES HEALTH CARE UTILITIES Page 1 / February 7, 18 / Earnings Monitor www.

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