Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals

Transcription

1 Stock Market Briefing: S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals October 31, Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P 00/0/00 Annual Earnings 3 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Revenues 4 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Margins S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 0 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth S&P 00/0/00 Indexes & Forward Earnings S&P 00/0/00 Forward Revenues & Margins S&P 00/0/00 P/Es 13 S&P 00/0/00 P/Sales S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins S&P 0 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 1 S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 1 S&P 00/0/00 Blue Angels S&P 00 Forward Revenues & Earnings October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

3 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Earnings Figure 1. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* / Frwd Oct Oct S&P 0 / Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* 0 0 Frwd Oct Oct S&P 00 Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* / 0 Frwd Oct Oct * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Page 3 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

4 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Revenues Figure 2. S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 0 / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 00 / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year. 30 Page 4 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

5 S&P 00/0/00 Annual Margins 13 Figure 3. S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 13 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.3) S&P 0 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) S&P 00 4 / 4 Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 3 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

6 0 Figure 4. S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / 0 0 Annual Forward* Frwd Oct Oct * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. 44 Figure. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: QUARTERLY FORECASTS (analysts consensus estimates, dollars, weekly) Q4 3 Q3 3 3 Q2 By Quarter as of // 3 34 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct 3.0 NA Oct 3.0 NA I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 32 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

7 1 Figure. S&P 0 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 0 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE* (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) / 1 Annual 2-Week Forward* 4 4 Frwd Oct Oct * Time-weighted average of the current year s and next year s consensus earnings estimates. 32 Figure. S&P 0 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) Q Q3 Q2 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 22 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

8 0 Figure. S&P 00 Annual & Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) 0 Annual 2-Week Forward* / Frwd Oct Oct * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. 1 1 Figure. S&P 00 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct Q4 Q3 13 Q2 Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

9 44 42 Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Earnings S&P 00 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly) Q4 Q3 3 3 Q2 By Quarter as of // 3 34 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P Q Q3 Q2 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct Q1 I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P Q4 Q3 Q2 13 Q1 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

10 S&P 00/0/00 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth Figure. S&P 00 CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH (consensus analysts estimates in percent, weekly) Q1 Q2 Q4 Q3 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P 0 30 Q1 By Quarter as of // Q4 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 S&P Q Q2 Q3 Q4 By Quarter as of // Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Oct I II III IV I II III IV I II 1 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

11 Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Indexes & Forward Earnings S&P 00/0/00 STOCK PRICE INDEXES (daily, ratio scale) / S&P Stock Price Indexes S&P 00 LargeCap (22.3) S&P 0 MidCap (.3) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.0) Source: Standard & Poor s Figure 13. S&P 00/0/00 FORWARD EARNINGS (dollars per share, ratio scale) / Forward Earnings* S&P 00 LargeCap (.4) S&P 0 MidCap (4.4) S&P 00 SmallCap (1.41) * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

12 Figure. S&P 00/0/00 Forward Revenues & Margins S&P 00/0/00 FORWARD REVENUES (dollars per share, ratio scale) / 4 Forward Revenues* S&P 00 LargeCap (03) S&P 0 MidCap (4) S&P 00 SmallCap (0) * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. 13 Figure. S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS* (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / 13 Forward Profit Margins* S&P 00 (.3) S&P 0 (.) S&P 00 (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year using forward earnings divided by forward revenues. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

13 2 2 Figure 1. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES* (weekly) S&P 00/0/00 P/Es /2 1 S&P 00 LargeCap (.2) S&P 0 MidCap (.4) S&P 00 SmallCap (.2) * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. 2 2 Figure 1. FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P 00 LargeCap (.3) S&P 0 MidCap (.) S&P 00 SmallCap (.) / * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page 13 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

14 S&P 00/0/00 P/Sales Figure. FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (weekly) S&P 00 LargeCap (1.) S&P 0 MidCap (1.) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.1) / * Price divided by 2-week forward consensus expected revenues per share Figure. FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES* (daily) S&P 00 LargeCap (1.1) S&P 0 MidCap (1.1) S&P 00 SmallCap (0.4) / * Daily stock price index divided by 2-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

15 Figure. S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 13 / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.3) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

16 S&P 0 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins Figure 21. S&P 0 / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 0 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* S&P 0 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 4 Page 1 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

17 S&P 00 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 10 0 Figure 22. S&P 00 REVENUES PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Revenues Forward Revenues* S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) / Annual Earnings Forward Earnings* S&P 00 PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) / 4 Annual Margins Forward Margins* (.) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor s. 3 Page 1 / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

18 S&P 00/0/00 Blue Angels Figure 23. S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION S&P 00 /30/ S&P 00 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // x x x1 x x x S&P 0 /30/ S&P 0 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // X X x1 x x 00 x S&P 00 /30/ /30/ x x S&P 00 Blue Angels Implied Price Index* // x1 x x x * Implied stock price index calculated using actual 2-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poors and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 0 Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

19 0 Figure 24. S&P 00 Forward Revenues & Earnings S&P 00 FORWARD EARNINGS & REVENUES PER SHARE (ratio scale) / Forward Earnings* (.) Forward Revenues* Divided by (0.3) % Growth Rate** * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 4, then weekly. ** Compounded monthly to yield % annually. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. S&P 00 OPERATING EARNINGS ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS* (based on analysts consensus estimates, percent, weekly) 0 (.) (.0) 13 (.1) (.0) (0.) 1 (1.) 1 (.2) (23.2) (.1) (.3) Latest data thru // Page / October 31, / S&P 00/0/00 Weekly Fundamentals www.

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