CHAPTER IV DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 CHAPTER IV DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 4.1 Data Collection SPBU Type Based on Land Size PT. Pertamina has minimum requirements to establish SPBU, which are: Table 4-1 SPBU Type SPBU Type Land Size Nozzles Fuel Tank Capacity SPBU type A 2,500 m 2 26 units 160 kilo liters SPBU type B 1,600 m units 140 kilo liters SPBU type C 1,225 m units 100 kilo liters SPBU type D 900 m units 80 kilo liters SPBU type E 700 m 2 maximum 10 units 60 kilo liters There is license fee to establish SPBU. License fee is used for registration cost and it is also the cost to use intellectual property right of PT. Pertamina, which is brand, logo, and product. According to the SPBU type, PT. Pertamina divides the license fee into: SPBU Type A: IDR 800,000,000 SPBU Type B: IDR 650,000,000 SPBU Type C: IDR 500,000,000 SPBU Type D: IDR 350,000,000 SPBU Type E: IDR 250,000,000 For instance, if investor of SPBU has a land with size about 1,000 m 2 so he could establish SPBU type D and he must pay IDR 350,000,000 for the license fee SPBU components Based on PT. Pertamina, the main components of SPBU to analyze the economically feasibility study are shown in the table below. 15

2 Table 4-2 Fixed Assets Fixed Assets Land Component Price per Unit Useful Life Unit (IDR) (UL) Land 4,050,000 m2 Building Component Hoarding Cost (Penimbunan) 200,000 m2 20 years Pavement Cost (Perkerasan) 36,000 m2 20 years Canopy 650,000,000 per set 20 years Building for Office and Utility 3,000,000 m2 20 years Fitting 400,000,000 per SPBU 20 years Machinery and Equipment Component 4" Pipe (an Underground Tank Need 30 m ) 400,000 m 20 years 2" Pipe (an Underground Tank Need 15 m) 1,000,000 m 20 years Underground Tank 20 Kilo Litres 69,000,000 unit 20 years 30 Kilo Litres 102,000,000 unit 20 years 45 Kilo Litres 124,000,000 unit 20 years STP (per Tank) 20,000,000 unit 10 years POS & ATG - Automatic Tank level Gauge - (per Tank) 40,000,000 unit 10 years Dispenser (8 Nozzle) 163,000,000 unit 7 years Dispenser (4 Nozzle) 123,000,000 unit 7 years Dispenser (2 Nozzle) 83,000,000 unit 7 years Table 4-3 License, Deposit, and Architect Service Component Cost Unit License and Installation of Electricity, Water, and Telephone Architect Service Deposit 500,000,000 per install 10% of total fixed assets' value 3 x fuel demand per day per service Underground tank is the tank to store fuel supply. Based on government regulation, volume of underground tank that is allowed to use for SPBU are 20, 30, and 45 kilo liters. Deposit is the minimum money that must be kept in Bank as the guarantee to buy the fuel supply by credit. The bank that has been pointed by PT. Pertamina to be the guarantee bank is BCA, BNI, Mandiri, and Bukopin. The minimum money to be deposited into the bank account is three times of fuel demand per day. It is because fuel order is done once per 3 days so the deposit value could cover the payment guarantee of 16

3 buying fuel by the management of SPBU to the fuel distributor. This amount is following the buying price of fuel Cost Components According to PT. Pertamina, the costs that appear in SPBU business would be: Table 4-4 Cost Components Component Cost Unit Salary - Manager 3,500,000 per person per month - Supervisor 2,000,000 per person per month - Administration Staff 1,100,000 per person per month - Operator 1,100,000 per person per month - Security 1,000,000 per person per month - Cleaning Service 1,000,000 per person per month Social Security - Manager 3,500,000 per person per year - Supervisor 2,000,000 per person per year - Administration Staff 1,100,000 per person per year - Operator 1,100,000 per person per year - Security 1,000,000 per person per year - Cleaning Service 1,000,000 per person per year Medicare 125,000 per person per year Work Clothes 150,000 per person per year Insurance 0.30% of total building, machinery, equipment value Overhead Costs - Maintenance Cost 0.30% of total building, machinery, and equipment value - Electricity, Water, and Telephone Cost 5,000,000 per month - Transportation 2,500,000 per month - Office Supplies 500,000 per month - Land and Building Tax 0.20% of total land and building value - Other 1,000,000 per month Fuel Shrink Cost 0.5% of fuel selling price per liter Depreciation Cost Income Tax 0.25% per liter of fuel selling price According to income tax article 22, income tax for SPBU PT. Pertamina (COCO) is 0.25% and 0.3% for SPBU CODO and DODO. This tax is charged per liter of fuel sold. 17

4 4.1.4 Other Information Given by PT. Pertamina Beside the previous information, there are also a several information that is needed to analyze the feasibility study for this project. The information are: Table 4-5 Other Information Given by PT. Pertamina Component Unit SPBU open from 6 am to 9 pm, every day 15 hours Land 4,200 m 2 Hours Per Shift 5 hours Operator Per Dispenser Per Shift - Dispenser for vehicles 4 Wheels 1 person - Dispenser for motorcycles 2 person Manager 1 person Administration Staff 2 person Supervisor Per Shift 1 person Security Per Shift 1 person Cleaning Service Per Shift 1 person Area Per Tank 28 m 2 Distance Between Tank 8 m 2 Height of land to be dumped 0.5 m 4" Pipe 30 m per tank 2" Pipe 15 m per tank Order of Fuel Once per 3 days Building area 20% of total land size The land size to establish SPBU on BIIE is 4,200 m 2. Because of that, this SPBU is categorized as SPBU type A with IDR 800,000,000 as the license fee. Table 4-6 Buying and Selling Price of Fuel Fuel Buying Price Date Fuel Type Price (IDR/L) June, 7, 2010 Premium & Solar in SPBU Pasti Pas IDR 4,300 per liter Premium & Solar in SPBU non Pasti Pas IDR 4,320 per liter Pertamax Plus IDR 6,625 per liter Pertamax IDR 6,125 per liter Fuel Selling Price Date Fuel Type Price (IDR/L) June, 7, 2010 Premium 4,500 Solar 4,500 Pertamax Plus 6,950 Pertamax 6,450 PT. Pertamina planned to sell four fuel products in this SPBU. It is Premium, Solar, Pertamax Plus, and Pertamax. 18

5 The PSO fuel price is stable because it is subsidized by government. In other hands, the price of Pertamax and Pertamax Plus would be change depend on the world oil price. PT. Pertamina is using spot oil price from Singapore Market Data Market data in this project is the number of vehicles that has passed in front the SPBU BIIE land. The market data could be seen in the table below: Table 4-7 Market Data Number of Vehicles Time Truck Trailer Bus Medium Truck, Mini Bus City Car Non-City Car Diesel Car Motorcycle , , , , , Average Per Hour ,835 Average Per Day 5, ,002 2,730 1,845 7,260 2,385 27,525 The data above is used to predict the fuel demand for SPBU BIIE. The vehicles that have been counted are divided into truck, trailer, bus, medium truck, mini bus, city car, non-city car, diesel car, and motorcycle. This categorization is based on the size of vehicle with the assumption that as bigger the vehicles as bigger its fuel tank capacity. It is also based on the vehicles which is using diesel or not. Since the vehicles which are using Premium, Pertamax, and Pertamax Plus is difficult to be predicted because those vehicles doesn t have specific characteristic to be identified as Premium, Pertamax, or 19

6 Pertamax Plus user so the assumption would be needed to know the number of those vehicles. The data above showed the average vehicles per day. It is gotten by multiplying the number of average vehicles per hour with the open hour in one day Assumption, Economic Factor, and Other Information There are several assumptions to be used for this feasibility study analysis. The assumptions are the probability of vehicles that would come to SPBU to fill its fuel, the demand volume for each vehicles category based on its fuel tank capacity, and the proportion to assume the user amount of Premium, Pertamax, and Pertamax Plus. The assumption could be seen in the table below. Table 4-8 Assumption Assumption 1 Years 365 days % Consumer Consumer (Vehicles That Come to SPBU to Fill Fuels) 20% of vehicles which is passing the SPBU per day % Demand Volume Trailer, Truck, Bus, Medium Truck, Mini Bus 25% of its fuel tank capacity Diesel Car 50% of its fuel tank capacity City Car 50% of its fuel tank capacity Non-City Car 50% of its fuel tank capacity Motorcycle 75% of its fuel tank capacity Proportion - Solar 100% of all diesel vehicles - Premium 85% of all non-diesel vehicles - Pertamax Plus 5% of all non-diesel vehicles - Pertamax 10% of all non-diesel vehicles Beside the assumption, the economic factors are also needed to support the analysis. This factors would be used to support the analyzing this feasibility study. The economic factors are wage growth, vehicle growth, oil price growth, inflation rate, BI rate, currency change, and deposit rate. The factors could be seen in table below. 20

7 Table 4-9 Economic Factors Wage Growth % Vehicle Growth % Oil Price Growth % Inflation Rate 5.92% BI Rate 6.50% Currency Change % Deposit Rate 7% The rates above are based on the average of historical data per year that could be seen on Appendix A. The other information that would be needed is the information about fuel tank capacity of each vehicle. It is needed to know the demand volume. The information could be seen in the table below. Table 4-10 Fuel Tank Capacity Category Vehicle Sample Fuel Tank Capacity Unit Trailer Nissan Diesel Truck PK 260 CT 200 Liters Bus Perkasa 08 BI 200 Liters Truck HINO FM 320 PD 200 Liters Medium Truck, Minibus HINO DUTRO 110 HD 100 Liters Diesel Car Isuzu Pick-Up Standard 50 Liters Non-City Car Toyota Avanza G 1.3 A/T 45 Liters City Car Suzuki Swift 45 Liters Motorcycle Yamaha New Jupiter Z 4 Liters information. The fuel tank capacity is taken based on the vehicle s sample specification 4.2 Data Computation and Analysis Demand Projection This projection is first to be processed so the amount of assets needed on this SPBU would be known especially for the underground tank needed for this SPBU. Based on market data, the vehicles passed the SPBU site is Truck 336 units, Trailer 34 units, Bus 67 units, Medium Truck and Minibus 182 units, Diesel Car

8 units, City Car 123 units, Non-City Car 484 units, Motorcycle 1835 units. Those amounts are average per hour. So, the average vehicles passed the SPBU site from 6 am to 9 pm must be multiplied by 15 because this SPBU is open for 15 hours every day based on PT. Pertamina. Table 4-11 Vehicles Amount Vehicles Category Average Units Per Hours Average Units Per Days Truck 336 5,040 Trailer Bus 67 1,005 Medium Truck and Minibus 182 2,730 Diesel Car 159 2,385 City Car 123 1,845 Non-City Car 484 7,266 Motorcycle ,525 By using the data in the table above so the calculation of demand projection per day and per year in year 1 could be seen in Appendix B. These are the calculation result: Solar: 91,125 liters per day Premium: 44,185 liters per day Pertamax Plus: 2,599 liters per day Pertamax: 5,198 liters per day By following the vehicle growth per year which is 15.44% so the demand projection from year 1 to year 10 is stated in table below: Table 4-12 Demand Projection from Year 1 to Year 10 (in L) Year Solar 33,260,625 38,396,104 44,324,506 51,168,260 59,068,698 Premium 16,127,571 18,617,686 21,492,278 24,810,710 28,641,512 Pertamax Plus 948,681 1,095,158 1,264,252 1,459,454 1,684,795 Pertamax 1,897,361 2,190,316 2,528,503 2,918,907 3,369,590 Year Solar 68,188,973 78,717,428 90,871, ,902, ,099,164 Premium 33,063,795 38,168,882 44,062,202 50,865,456 58,719,141 Pertamax Plus 1,944,929 2,245,228 2,591,894 2,992,086 3,454,067 Pertamax 3,889,858 4,490,457 5,183,788 5,984,171 6,908,134 22

9 4.2.2 Assets Calculation To obtain the amount of underground tank that is needed for SPBU BIIE, it is important to know the amount of fuel that would be ordered by the SPBU manager because the volume of fuel supply in underground tank is following the number of fuel order. For example, if the delivery of an order takes 4 days so the supply of fuel must could cover for 4 days demand. Because of that, the volume of underground tank needed will be adjusted based on the the number of fuel per order. The delivery of an order takes 3 working days so the number of fuel per order is the average demand per day multiplied by 3. In year 2 to 10, the number of fuel per order will increase based on vehicle growth. Table 4-13 The Number of Fuel per Order from Year 1 to 10 Year Solar 273, , , , , ,457 Premium 132, , , , , ,757 Pertamax Plus 7,797 9,001 10,391 11,996 13,848 15,986 Pertamax 15,595 18,003 20,782 23,991 27,695 31,971 Year Solar 646, , , ,336 Premium 313, , , ,623 Pertamax Plus 18,454 21,303 24,592 28,390 Pertamax 36,908 42,606 49,185 56,779 The maximum number of tank that could be planted in land with size 4,200 m 2 is 12 units. Based on the data from the table 4-13, the number of underground tank to reach maximum demand of each product that could be planted in SPBU BIIE site is shown in table below. Table 4-14 The Number of Underground Tank Based on Demand Underground Tank Needed Fuel Category Tank Capacity Total Underground Tank Solar 45 KL 7 Premium 45 KL 3 Pertamax Plus 45 KL 1 Pertamax 45KL 1 Total Tank 12 23

10 Because of the limitation of underground tank volume, the fuel volume per order for Premium and Solar will reach the maximum number in year 2 to 10. Meanwhile, the fuel volume per order for Pertamax will reach the maximum number in year 9 to 10. The fuel volume per order in year 2 to 10 is 315 kilo liters for Solar and 135 kilo liters for Premium. So, the demand per day in year 2 to 10 is 105 kilo liters for Solar and 45 kilo liters for Premium. Meanwhile, the volume per order in year 9 to 10 for Pertamax is 45 kilo liters. So, the demand per day in year 9 to 10 is 15 kilo liters. Table 4-15 Demand Growth per Day from Year 1 to 10 adjusted based on number of underground tank (in L) Fuel Category Year Solar 91, , , , ,000 Premium 44,185 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 Pertamax Plus 2,599 3,000 3,464 3,999 4,616 Pertamax 5,198 6,001 6,927 7,997 9,232 Fuel Category Year Solar 91, , , , ,000 Premium 44,185 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 Pertamax Plus 2,599 3,000 3,464 3,999 4,616 Pertamax 5,198 6,001 6,927 7,997 9,232 Then, the other asset to be calculated is pipe. Each of underground tanks needs 30 m of 4 inch pipe and 15 m of 2 inch pipe and there are 12 units of underground tank so total length of 4 inch pipe is 360 m and total length of 2 inch pipe is 180 m. Afterwards, the pavement and the hoarding area must be calculated so the hoarding and the pavement cost could be known. Table below is shown the land area that will not be dumped and hardened. Table 4-16 Land Area That Will Not Be Dumped and Hardened (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)=(2)*(4) (6) Building Area 20% of Land Area 4, m2 Underground Tank Area 28 m2 per tank m2 Distance Between Tank 8 m m2 Total 1,264 m2 24

11 So, the hoarding and the pavement area will be: Pavement Area = Total Land Area Land Area That Will Not Be Dumped and Hardened Pavement Area = 4,200 m2 1,264 m2 = 2,936 m2 Hoarding Area = (Total Land Area - Land Area That Will Not Be Dumped and Hardened) x Height of Land to be Dumped Hoarding Area = (4,200 m2 1,264 m2) x 0.5 m = 1,468 m2 The next step is calculating the dispenser. The dispensers are categorized into dispenser for car, dispenser for motorcycle, and dispenser for vehicles more than 4 wheels. That categorization purpose is to create traffic orderliness on SPBU BIIE. According to market data, the number of vehicles based on dispenser categorization is: Car: 2,983 units per day Motorcycles: 7,356 units per day Vehicles more than 4 wheels: 2,140 units per day The number of vehicles above is using the number that will happen in year 10. It is to know the number of dispenser that could cover the demand until the year 10 so the extra dispenser does not need to be added when the demand rose because the installation extra dispenser could disturb the operation process. The calculation could be seen in Appendix B. It is assumed that transaction will take 1 minute for car, 30 seconds for motorcycles, and 1.5 minutes for vehicles more than 4 wheels. Other information that is needed for the dispenser calculation is: One dispenser could cover 2 transactions in one time. The transaction place is called as transaction station. SPBU BIIE has 15 work hours in a day or 900 minutes in a day The fuel product for car is Premium, Solar, Pertamax Plus, and Pertamax The fuel product for motorcycle is Premium, Pertamax Plus, and Pertamax 25

12 The fuel product for vehicle more than 4 wheels is Solar According to the information above, the calculation could be seen in the table below. Table 4-17 The Calculation of Dispenser Unit Vehicle Category Unit per Day (in Unit) Transaction Duration (in Minute) Open Hour (in Minute) Transaction Station Number of Dispenser (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)=(2)*(3)/(4) (6)=(5)/2 Car 2, Motorcycle 7, Vehicle more than 4 wheels 2, So, the dispensers that would be installed on the SPBU BIIE are: 2 units of Dispenser 8 nozzles for car. The nozzles per dispenser are divided into 2 nozzles for Premium, 2 nozzles for Solar, 2 nozzles for Pertamax, and 2 nozzles for Pertamax Plus. 2 units of Dispenser 4 nozzles for motorcycle. The nozzles per dispenser are divided into 2 nozzles for Premium, 1 nozzle for Pertamax, 1 nozzle for Pertamax Plus. 2 units of Dispenser 2 nozzles for vehicles more than 4 wheels. All nozzles are for Solar. After the calculation of dispenser, the next step is determining the number of canopy that would be built in SPBU BIIE. Canopy is calculated per set. One set could cover 1 dispenser for car, 1 dispenser for vehicle more than 4 wheels, and 2 dispensers for motorcycles. By using dispenser calculation, 5 sets of canopy would be established on SPBU BIIE. 4 sets of canopy for 2 units of dispenser 8 nozzles, 2 units of dispenser 2 nozzles, and 1 set of canopy for 2 units of dispenser 4 nozzles. After all of the unit of assets that would be needed for SPBU at Bekasi International Industrial Estate have been known so the price to buy assets also could be known. total assets that are needed to establish SPBU BIIE could be seen in the table below. 26

13 Table 4-18 Total Assets Investment Unit Total Price (IDR) Fixed Assets Land Land 4,050,000 per m2 4,200 17,010,000,000 Building Hoarding Cost (Penimbunan) 200,000 per m3 1, ,600,000 Pavement Cost (Perkerasan) 36,000 per m2 2, ,696,000 Canopy 650,000,000 per set 5 3,250,000,000 Building (20% of land area) 3,000,000 per m ,520,000,000 Fitting 400,000,000 per SPBU 1 400,000,000 Machinery and Equipment 4" Pipe 400,000 per m ,000,000 2" Pipe 1,000,000 per m ,000,000 Underground Tank 20 Kilo Litres 69,000,000 per unit 0-30 Kilo Litres 102,000,000 per unit 0-45 Kilo Litres 124,000,000 per unit 12 1,488,000,000 STP (per Tank) 20,000,000 per unit ,000,000 POS & ATG - Automatic Tank level Gauge 40,000,000 per unit - (per Tank) ,000,000 Dispenser (8 Nozzle) 163,000,000 per unit 2 326,000,000 Dispenser (4 Nozzle) 123,000,000 per unit 2 246,000,000 Dispenser (2 Nozzle) 83,000,000 per unit 2 166,000,000 License and Construction Service License to establish SPBU 800,000,000 per SPBU 1 800,000,000 License and Installation of Electricity, 500,000,000 per install Water, and Telephone 1 500,000,000 10% of total fixed Construction Service per service assets' value 1 2,684,929,600 Total Initial Investment 30,834,225,600 The initial investment to establish this SPBU is IDR 30,834,225, Depreciation Costs Building, Machinery, and Equipment is depreciated by using straight line method. The old assets would be sold for its salvage value which is 5% of its new price. PT. Pertamina has given information about the useful life of SPBU assets as stated on the data collection. The asset s useful life is divided into 20 Years, 10 Years, and 7 Years. In year 8, 7-years-old assets would be replaced by the new assets. The 27

14 price of new assets to replace the seven-year-old asset will increase in year 8 due to inflation factors. Because of that, depreciation cost in year 8 will increase as well. Total depreciation cost in year 1 to 7 is IDR 565,521,917 and IDR 625,185,535 in year 8 to 10. The detail calculation could be found in Appendix B Operational Cost Operational cost that occurs in SPBU business is divided into fixed cost and variable cost. The fixed costs are salary expense, social security expense, medicare expense, work clothes expense, insurance expense, maintenance expense, transportation cost, office supplies expense, land and building tax expense, other expense, depreciation cost, electricity, water, and telephone cost. Meanwhile, the variable costs are income tax and fuel shrink cost. Income tax is charged in variable cost because government through income tax article 22 regulates that the income tax for PT. Pertamina s SPBU must be charged based on the fuel sold per liter. First, the manager, supervisor, administration staff, operator, security, and cleaning service amount that would be needed for this SPBU must be known. Table 4-19 Total Operator Needed Operator Needed Component Unit Operator Per Dispenser Total Dispenser Vehicles 4 wheels person Dispenser Vehicles = 2 wheels person Table 4-20 Total Staff and Labor Needed Staff and Labor Unit Total Shift Total Manager 1 person per SPBU 3 1 Supervisor 1 person per shift 3 3 Administration Staff 2 person per SPBU 3 2 Operator 6 person per shift 3 18 Security 1 person per shift 3 3 Cleaning Service 1 person per shift

15 Based on that information, the operational cost is shown in table below: Table 4-21 Operational Cost Components Unit (In IDR) Fixed Cost - Salary Expense 450,000,000 - Social Security Expense 37,500,000 - Medicare Expense 3,750,000 - Work Clothes Expense 4,500,000 - Insurance Expense 29,517,888 - Maintenance Cost 29,517,888 - Electricity, Telephone, and Water Expense 60,000,000 - Transportation Cost 30,000,000 - Office Supplies Expense 6,000,000 - Land and Building Tax Expense 45,560,000 - Other Expense 12,000,000 - Depreciation Expense in year 1 to 7 566,668,703 - Depreciation Expense in year 8 to ,185,536 Variable Cost - Fuel Shrink Cost 0.5% of fuel selling price per liter - Income Tax 0.25% of fuel selling price per liter Detail calculation of operational cost could be found in appendix B Cash Flow The cash inflow and outflow from year 0 to 10 is shown in the table below. Table 4-22 Summary of Cash Flow Projection Year Cash Inflow (in IDR) Cash Outflow (in IDR) Cash Flow After Tax (1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)-(3) 0-30,834,225,600 (30,834,225,600) 1 241,078,190, ,170,345,439 5,907,845, ,113,886, ,523,009,237 8,590,877, ,470,395, ,571,467,695 8,898,927, ,345,152, ,307,118,632 9,038,034, ,818,177, ,617,231,718 9,200,946, ,981,842, ,590,426,346 9,391,416, ,942,783, ,329,001,815 9,613,781, ,861,000, ,106,722,656 8,754,277, ,483,745, ,477,036,690 10,006,708, ,694,516, ,573,438,478 10,121,077,799 29

16 The detail calculation could be seen in Appendix B. Cash inflow components consist of revenue from selling fuel and asset. The 7-years-old assets would be sold in year 8 for IDR 36,900,000. In the cash outflows, the values consist of: The payment to buy fuel The payment of fixed assets The payment for license and installation of electricity, water, and telephone The payment for architect service The payment for income tax The cost of fuel shrink Deposit There are several components of cash outflows that would be increase depend on the vehicle growth, inflation rate, oil price growth, and wages growth. Vehicle growth: The payment to buy fuel. The payment to buy fuel will be increase as the demand increase. Meanwhile, the demand will be increase based on the vehicle growth. Because of that, the payment to buy fuel will increase based on vehicle growth. Inflation rate: Medicare expense, work clothes expense, office supplies expense, other expense, electricity, water, and telephone expense Oil price growth: Transportation cost Transportation is using fuel so the increasing of transportation cost will follow the oil price growth. Wages growth: Salary and Social Security Social security value per year is equal to salary value per month. Meanwhile, the increasing of salary depends on the wages growth. That reason makes social security also increase based on the wages growth. In year 8, the 7-years old assets would be replaced by the new assets. The old assets are sold for IDR 36,900,000 and the new assets are bought for IDR 1,103,829,932. In year 8, the new assets price has been increased by using inflation rate. Because of that, cost components that are affected by the machine and equipment price such insurance, maintenance, and depreciation will be increase as well. 30

17 4.2.6 Hurdle Rate Hurdle rate could be obtained by summing the BI rate as the risk free rate and inflation rate, oil price growth, currency change, and deposit rate as the expected market risk premium of SPBU business This hurdle rate is used to obtain net present value and discounted payback period. From the calculation, the hurdle rate is % Net Present Value (NPV) By using the cash flow projection and hurdle rate, the NPV could be calculated as shown in table below. Table 4-23 Net Present Value, Hurdle Rate = % Yearr Cash Inflow Cash Outflow Cash Flow After Tax Discount Factor Hurdle Rate= % PV Cumulative PV (1) (2) (3) (5) (6) = (4) x (5) (7) = Cum (6) 0-30,834,225,600 (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) 1 241,078,190, ,170,345,439 5,907,845, ,171,827,870 (25,662,397,730) 2 268,113,886, ,523,009,237 8,590,877, ,583,660,107 (19,078,737,623) 3 271,470,395, ,571,467,695 8,898,927, ,970,112,517 (13,108,625,106) 4 275,345,152, ,307,118,632 9,038,034, ,308,035,052 (7,800,590,054) 5 279,818,177, ,617,231,718 9,200,946, ,730,501,963 (3,070,088,091) 6 284,981,842, ,590,426,346 9,391,416, ,226,888,442 1,156,800, ,942,783, ,329,001,815 9,613,781, ,787,903,364 4,944,703, ,861,000, ,106,722,656 8,754,277, ,019,533,813 7,964,237, ,483,745, ,477,036,690 10,006,708, ,021,522,212 10,985,759, ,694,516, ,573,438,478 10,121,077, ,675,323,187 13,661,082,928 Net present value for this investment is IDR 13,661,082,928. This number means the equivalent worth of cash flows from this investment during ten years analysis period that was discounted by hurdle rate as the discount factor to the beginning point in time is IDR. NPV > 0, Accept the project 31

18 4.2.8 Discounted Payback Period By using discounted payback period, the investor could know the number of years required for cash inflows to just equal to the cash outflows. According to the table 4-23, payback period is between year 5 and year 6. By using interpolation method, the discounted payback period will be: The payback period is years or 5 years 265 days Internal Rate of Return The IRR is net present value equal to zero. Trial and error method is used for calculating the IRR. By using the trial and error, the zero net present value is located between 24% and 25%. The detail value could be seen from the table below. Table 4-24 Trial And Errors IRR, i=24% Year Cash flow After Tax Discount Factor i=24% PV Cumulative PV (1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)x(3) (5) = Cum (4) 0 (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) 1 5,907,845, ,764,391,355 (26,069,834,245) 2 8,590,877, ,587,198,913 (20,482,635,332) 3 8,898,927, ,667,374,119 (15,815,261,214) 4 9,038,034, ,822,849,892 (11,992,411,322) 5 9,200,946, ,138,513,898 (8,853,897,425) 6 9,391,416, ,583,455,473 (6,270,441,951) 7 9,613,781, ,132,762,281 (4,137,679,670) 8 8,754,277, ,566,198,572 (2,571,481,098) 9 10,006,708, ,443,763,584 (1,127,717,514) 10 10,121,077, ,177,632,849 49,915,335 32

19 Table 4-25 Trial and Error IRR, i=25% Year Cashflow After Tax Discount Factor i=25% PV Cumulative PV (1) (2) (3) (4) = (2)x(3) (5) = Cum (4) 0 (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) (30,834,225,600) 1 5,907,845, ,726,276,224 (26,107,949,376) 2 8,590,877, ,498,161,311 (20,609,788,065) 3 8,898,927, ,556,250,886 (16,053,537,179) 4 9,038,034, ,701,978,856 (12,351,558,323) 5 9,200,946, ,014,965,986 (9,336,592,338) 6 9,391,416, ,461,903,431 (6,874,688,906) 7 9,613,781, ,016,156,111 (4,858,532,795) 8 8,754,277, ,468,724,031 (3,389,808,764) 9 10,006,708, ,343,077,683 (2,046,731,081) 10 10,121,077, ,086,742,454 (959,988,627) The IRR that could make the NPV become zero is between 24% and 25%. i=24%, NPV = IDR 49,915,335 i=25%, NPV = IDR (959,988,627) By using interpolation linear method, it is acquired: IRR > Hurdle Rate, Accept the Project 4.3 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is needed to provide information about the potential impact of uncertainty in selected variables estimates. The variables in this feasibility study are quantity demand, selling price, and profit margin. This could be used for the consideration of decision making whether this project would be accepted or not. 33

20 4.3.1 Sensitivity for the Change of Demand Quantity in NPV and IRR This step will analyze how sensitive the NPV and IRR to the change in demand quantity. Best, base, and worst are the scenarios that are used in this step. Best scenario will be increasing the demand of base scenario into 10 percent and then worst scenario will be decreasing the demand of base scenario into 10 percent. Table 4-26 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Demand Quantity Best Base Worst NPV IDR 18,846,670,397 IDR 13,661,082,928 IDR 8,475,429,044 IRR % % % Detail calculation for sensitivity analysis to the change of demand quantity could be found in Appendix C Sensitivity for the Change of Selling Price in NPV and IRR This step will analyze how sensitive the NPV and IRR to the change in selling price. Best, base, and worst are the scenarios that are used in this step. Best scenario will be increasing the selling price of base scenario into 10 percent and then worst scenario will be decreasing the selling price of base scenario into 10 percent. Table 4-27 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Selling Price Best Base Worst NPV IDR 30,610,381,398 IDR 13,661,082,928 IDR (3,288,281,957) IRR 33.71% % 11.32% Detail calculation for sensitivity analysis to the change of demand quantity could be found in Appendix D. From the table above, it could be seen that the range of NPV and IRR between the best scenario and worst scenario is quite far. 34

21 4.3.3 Sensitivity for the Change of Fuel Shrink Cost in NPV and IRR This step will analyze how sensitive the NPV and IRR to the change in fuel shrink cost. Best, base, and worst are the scenarios that are used in this step. Best scenario will be decreasing the fuel shrink cost of base scenario into 10 percent and then worst scenario will be increasing the fuel shrink cost of base scenario into 10 percent. Table 4-28 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Fuel Shrink Cost Best Base Worst NPV IDR 14,340,043,720 IDR 13,661,082,928 IDR 12,982,055,721 IRR % % % Detail calculation for sensitivity analysis to the change of demand quantity could be found in Appendix E Absolute Deviation of Demand Quantity, Selling Price, and Fuel Shrink Cost In order to determine the variable that becomes most sensitive to the change of NPV and IRR, absolute deviation approach is used. The absolute deviation of NPV and IRR from each variable that had been analyzed must be calculated by subtracting NPV or IRR value of best scenario with NPV or IRR value of worst scenario. The variable which has the greatest value of absolute deviation become the most sensitive variables to the change of NPV and IRR. Table 4-29 Summary of Absolute Deviation Absolute Deviation Variables NPV (IDR) IRR Demand Quantity IDR 10,371,241, % Selling Price IDR 33,898,663, % Fuel Shrink Cost IDR 1,357,987, % Based on the result in the table above, selling price has the greatest value of absolute deviation so this variable is the most sensitive aspect to the change of NPV and IRR. 35

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