A Methodology for Deriving a Renewable Energy Market Competence Index with Application to CSP Technology

Transcription

1 A Methodology for Deriving a Renewable Energy Market Competence Index with Application to CSP Technology Thesis Defence REMENA Master Program By Hatem Elrefaei 14 March

2 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 2

3 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 3

4 Review of Exisiting Indices 12 indices have beed reviewed Politics Economics Human Development Energy 4

5 Review of Exisiting Indices 4 in Politics Politics Economics Human Development Energy Political Instability Index Corruption Perceptions Index Freedom Country Index Press Freedom Index 5

6 Review of Exisiting Indices 3 in Economics Politics Economics Human Development Energy Gini Index Index of Economic Freedom Global Competitive Index 6

7 Review of Exisiting Indices 3 in Human Development Politics Economics Human Development Energy Human Development Index Global Gender Gap Index Global Wellbeing Index 7

8 Review of Exisiting Indices 2 in Energy Politics Economics Human Development Energy Fossil Fuel Sustainability Index Renewable Energy Countries Attractiveness Indices 8

9 Review of Exisiting Indices Index 3 Index 1 Index Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire Stat. data or questionnaire 9

10 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 10

11 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 11

12 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 12

13 Index Type and Score Range The proposed Index is designed to be: Backward index. Minimum value of 0 (least competence market) Maximum value of 100 (most competencce market) Score is rounded to nearest digit. All indicators have the same properties Directly comparable with RE Countries Attractiveness Index. 13

14 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 14

15 Assumptions in Countries Governments Good governance Knowledge based decisions Environmentally friendly government Not an angelic view of governments, but a trend that is to different degrees followed 15

16 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 16

17 Addressed Countries Started with 13 RCREEE countries. Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen 17

18 Addressed Countries Started with 13 RCREEE countries. 13 indicators are missing for Palestine. Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen 18

19 Addressed Countries Started with 13 RCREEE countries. 13 indicators are missing for Palestine. Other 3 indicators are missing for Bahrin, Iraq, and Sudan Algeria Bahrain Bahrin Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen 19

20 Addressed Countries Started with 13 RCREEE countries. 13 indicators are missing for Palestine. Other 3 indicators are missing for Bahrin, Iraq, and Sudan 1 indicator is missing for Yemen. Algeria Bahrain Bahrin Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen 20

21 Addressed Countries Ended with 8 RCREEE countries. Algeria Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Syria Tunisia 21

22 Addressed Countries Ended with 8 RCREEE countries. We added another 10 benchmark counties covering All continents Comparable or advanced situations Brazil Turkey Spain Greece South Africa Malaysia India China USA Germany Algeria Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Syria Tunisia 22

23 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 23

24 Renewable Energy Market Competence Index Hierarchy RE Market Competence Index General s Technology Specific s (5) Political and Economic s (3) Energy Sector s (8) Financial and Environmental s (2) 24

25 General s Political and Economic s Energy Sector s Financial and Environment s Global Competitive Index Political Instability Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas Insecurity RE Target Financial Environmental 25

26 Technology Specific s Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff 26

27 All s Political and Economic s Energy Sector s Financial and Technology Specific Environment s s Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas RE Target Insecurity Financial Environmental Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff 27

28 All s Political and Economic s Energy Sector s Financial and Technology Specific Environment s s Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas RE Target Insecurity Financial Environmental Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff Mapping Data (statistical, plans, assumptions) Point system Questionnaire 28

29 All s Algeria Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Syria Tunisia Brazil Turkey Spain Greece South Africa Malaysia India China USA Germany Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas Insecurity Manufacturability RE Target Financial Environmental matrix Economic Potential Institute Target 29 Feed-in Tariff

30 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Index Methodology 30

31 Data Sources Number of s

32 Methodology for RE Market Competence Index Index Type and Score Range Assumptions in Countries Governments Addressed Countries RE Market Competence Index Hierarchy Data Sources Exploring Few s Index Methodology 32

33 Index Methodology Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas RE Target Insecurity Financial Environmental Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff X 1 = Economic Potential + Techno log 2 y T arg et 33

34 Index Methodology Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas RE Target Insecurity Financial Environmental Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff X 2 = Manufacturability + Institute 3 + Feed in Tariff 34

35 Index Methodology Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index Energy Intensity Non Electricity Final Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Non RE Electricity Production Oil Insecurity Gas RE Target Insecurity Financial Environmental Manufacturability Economic Potential Institute Target Feed-in Tariff X 3 = All General s 35

36 Index Methodology Global Political Competitive Instability Index Index Corruption Perception Index X 2 X Energy Intensity = 1 = Non Electricity Final Economic Manufacturability Technolog y Electricity Consumption Growth Net Imported electricity Potential X Specific + Techno log y 2 + Institute + Feed 3 Non RE Electricity Production = Market Oil Insecurity All Gas RE Target Insecurity 3 General Competence Financial s Index Environmental = Manufacturability T arg et X in Economic Potential Tariff 0 α 1 [ αx + ( α ) X ] Institute Target 36 Feed-in Tariff 3

37 Content Review of few Exisiting Indices RE Coutnries Attractiveness Indices (E&Y) Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 37

38 CSP Market Competence Index Results 38

39 CSP Market Competence Index Results 39

40 CSP Market Competence Index Results 40

41 CSP Market Competence Index Results Smallest score correlation (α=0, α=1) is Smallest rank correlation (α=0, α=1) is

42 CSP Market Competence Index Results Index = X [ αx + ( α ) ] X 3 Index = X 1 X 2 42

43 CSP Market Competence Index Results Who is good on these indicators, most probably is good on these as well. 43

44 CSP Market Competence Index Results Overall correlation between x 2 and x (w. Algeria) (w/o Algeria) x 2 and x 3 correlation for RCREEE countries (w. Algeria) (w/o Algeria) x 2 and x 3 correlation for benchmark countires

45 CSP Market Competence Index Results The reason for the oddness of the case of Algeria is that it is one of the developing countries that has a Feed in Tariff law for CSP. 45

46 CSP Market Competence Index Results Δ(max) 10 for 15 countries. Δ(max) 3 for 11 countries. 46

47 CSP Market Competence Index Results Δ(max) 3 for 17 countries. Δ(max) 1 for 12 countries. 47

48 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 48

49 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Only 11 common countries will be considered in the comparison. Egypt Morocco Tunisia Brazil Turkey Spain Greece South Africa India China Germany 49

50 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Because Market Competence Index data extends from , we took the average of Coutnries Attractiveness Index scores over an extened period. 50

51 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Market Competence Index Score Country α=0 α=0.2 α=0.4 α=0.6 α=0.8 α=1 Countries Attractiveness Index Score Spain India Morocco China Egypt Tunisia Brazil Turkey South Africa Greece Germany

52 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Market Competence Index Rank Country α=0 α=0.2 α=0.4 α=0.6 α=0.8 α=1 Countries Attractiveness Index Rank Spain India Morocco China Egypt Tunisia Brazil Turkey South Africa Greece Germany

53 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Smallest score correlation is Smallest rank correlation is

54 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Market Competence Index (score) Countries Attractiveness Index (score) 54

55 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Greece: CSP potential:12 CSP target: 0 South Africa CSP potential: 33 CSP target: 4 55

56 Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Market Competence Index (rank) Countries Attractiveness Index (rank) 56

57 CSP Market Competence Index Score and Rank Item CSP Market Competence Index CSP Countries Attractiveness Index Type Backward Backward Score range 0:100 0:100 Objectivity/Subjectivity Completely objective Has both objective and subjective components. Complexity Relatively simple in its structure. Direct data collection. Simple point system questionnaires. Only 5 quantitative indicators can still give a very good representation. Complex. Direct data collection. Open essay questionnaire. 57

58 CSP Market Competence Index Score and Rank Item CSP Market Competence Index CSP Countries Attractiveness Index Manpower Programmability Cooperative development Can be calculated by one person in a relatively short time (1 month). The index can be programmed, and a person with medium level experience can fill in the data, and the index can be directly calculated using a software package. Can be available to individual users (or community of users) to calculate the index themselves through Web based application. Needs a team of high expertise to be able to correctly evaluate the open essay questionnaires. Not applicable Not applicable 58

59 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 59

60 Criticism s: Still some other important indicators should be added like: Country commitment to meet the target Fossil fuel subsidy Energy taxation Details of financing and grants Grid code Grid connectivity S&P country rating Effect on labor sector 60

61 Criticism Data The index doesn t represent the situation at a certain year like all other indices. Methodology There is no criteria to find the appropriate value of α. The indicators that form X 1,X 2,andX 3 have different effects and thus should not be added through simple arithmetic average. 61

62 Criticism Countries USA should be dealt with on state level. Editing 31 typos, linguistics, grammar, and errors. 62

63 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 63

64 Conclusion A completely objective index that measures the RE market competence was developed. The proposed index is applied to CSP technology in 18 countries with various situations showing stability versus a weighting parameter (90% correlation). With more developing countries issuing FIT law, a proper value of the weighting parameter should be determined. 64

65 Conclusion The proposed Market Competence Index shows very good matching score and rank with Countries Attractiveness Index developed by E&Y (85% correlation). 65

66 Content Review of Few Exisiting Indices Methodology for RE Market Competence Index CSP Market Competence Index Results Market Competence Index versus Coutnries Attractiveness Index Criticism Conclusion Future Work 66

67 Future Work Consult a group of RE expers, with the help of a point system questionnaire, to find the appropriate value of α and relative weights of indicators. Develop indices for Wind, PV, and Bioenergy. Check/Develop a method to mix all renewable energy indices of different technologies in just one Index. 67

68 Thank You 68