ENERGY PRICES AND TAXES
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1 ENERGY PRICES AND TAXES Energy Statistics Course Paris, March 2014 Helen Beilby-Orrin, Prices Statistics Energy Data Centre OECD/IEA 2014
2 Energy Prices and Taxes: Overview Energy prices: why are they important? Key statistical concepts Computing end-use prices Moving to real prices 2
3 Energy prices: important to us all! 3
4 Energy prices can reflect major global events Source: OECD Factbook Note: Crude oil is traded in US dollars exchange rates can have a big impact! 4
5 Energy: a major expenditure for the economy Energy Costs to GDP Ratio OECD and USA Source: Bashmakov,
6 Energy: a major expenditure for households and industry Estimates for Households' Direct Expenditure on Energy for Selected OECD Countries as a percentage of total household expenditure 2011 Household fuels and transport of which: Household fuels Australia 5 2 Canada 9 3 Denmark 11 5 France 9 2 Italy 15 5 Korea 8 3 Mexico 11 4 Norway 10 4 United States 7 2 Source: OECD, National Accounts, detailed tables online, households final consumption expenditure Source: EC, Energy Economic Developments in Europe, European Economy 1/2014 6
7 Why taxes on energy? Attractive target to governments as energy demand is relatively price inelastic Average effective tax rates on energy in OECD countries Used to internalise costs imposed by energy use (emissions, congestion, ) and to provide signals aimed at changing behaviours Source: OECD Centre for Taxation Policy, 2013, Taxing Energy Use 7
8 Computing end-use prices 8
9 What do consumers pay? The concept of end-use price End-use price = Ex-tax price + Total tax where Total tax = Excise tax + Value added tax Note: end-use prices vary by fuel and sector and time 9
10 What is the ex-tax price? Cost from supplier of: raw materials capital expenditure production costs (e.g. labour) transport and delivery profit margins. everything except TAX Example: ex-tax price of gasoline for household use Ex-tax price (euro/litre) Country A 0.6 Country B
11 What is the excise tax? All taxes based on volume (e.g. euro/litre): Environmental / carbon, taxes mineral oil tax emergency stock fee labour market tax, Example: excise taxes of gasoline for household use Ex-tax price (euro/litre) Country A Country B Excise tax (euro/litre) 11
12 What is the value added tax? Consumption tax on value added (based on %): Refunded to intermediate consumers (e.g. industry). In non-vat (non-european) countries, the equivalent is Sales Tax Example: value added taxes of gasoline for household use Ex-tax price (euro/litre) Excise tax (euro/litre) Country A % VAT Country B % 12
13 What do consumers finally pay? Example: value added taxes of gasoline for household use Country A Country B Ex-tax price euro/litre Ex-tax price + excise tax euro/litre VAT rate VAT amount euro/litre End-use price euro/litre % % Note: Prices are those actually paid (net of rebates) 13
14 A wide variety of prices across countries 14
15 Test your knowledge! Do companies ultimately pay VAT? Yes No Maybe 15
16 Moving to real prices 16
17 How to compute real prices? Real price = Nominal price / price index where Price index = Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Producer Price Index (PPI) A price index removes inflation from prices so that, for example, diesel prices in 1995 and 2010 can be compared. 17
18 Calculating real price indices Example from EPT: USA Electricity Prices for Industry Nominal price USD/MWh Producer Price Index (PPI) Real (2010) price USD/MWh A B C =A/B Nominal price index D =A/A(2010) Real price index 2010=100 E =C/C(2010) Source: IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes 18
19 Why do real prices matter? 19
20 Test your knowledge! What is the opposite of real prices? How many of these terms are correct: Nominal prices Unreal prices Current prices 20
21 How does the IEA disseminate data? Energy Prices & Taxes Quarterly Statistics Quarterly Paper and pdf publication, online database Oil Market Report 3 tables Monthly Oil prices web bulletin Monthly Free of charge - Annual statistical publication Several tables 21
22 Thank you for your attention 22
23 EXERCISES 23
24 Prices Exercises End-Use prices the EPT questionnaire MS Excel in the EPT publication Country notes for details on all tax components Ex-Tax Price AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL price for NON-COMMERCIAL USERS per litre Excise Tax VAT % VAT Amount Total Tax Total Price A B C D E F 20X X X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X Q20X3 4Q20X3 =[F/(1+C)]-B =D/(A+B) =(A+B)*C =B+D =D/(A+B) =[F-(F/(1+C)] 24
25 Exercise basics (1) The basic relationship: Total Price = Extax Price + Excise Tax + [(ExtaxPrice+Excise Tax)*VAT Rate] Please note: Ex-tax price = wholesale price + profit margin + charges Excise tax = all taxes except VAT VAT is usually given in % and VAT Amount = % x (Ex-tax price + Excise Tax) Industry does not pay VAT Sometimes households do not pay Excise Tax (in one exercise here...) 25
26 Exercise basics (2) Dealing with cyclical demand For example, heating oil is used more commonly during winter months Solution: Base the annual average price on a weighted average (by quarterly consumption) of the quarterly prices 26
27 Exercise basics (3) Basic end-use prices: Total average prices = Sum (all revenues) / Sum (all quantities sold) (or equally) Weighted average end-use prices: = Sum (expenditures) / Sum (all quantities consumed) Weighted average prices = Sum (prices x quantities) / Sum (quantities) (e.g. annual from quarterly data) Weighted average quantities: Weighted average calorific values = Sum (calorific values x consumption) / Sum (consumption) Weighted average VAT % = Sum (% x time periods) / Number of time periods (e.g. Jan.+Feb. at 15%, Mar. at 18% is calculated as [(15x2)+(18x1)] / 3) 27
28 Exercise basics (4) Pay attention to units!! Mass = Volume (m 3 ) x Density (kg/m 3 ) Standard m 3 = Normal m 3 x GCV amount = NCV amount / 0.9 (for natural gas) 1 kwh = 3600 kj 1 MWh = 1000 kwh 1 GWh = 1000 MWh 1 billion of currency ( ) = 10 9 Calculate quarterly results before calculating weighted average annual price from quarterly results. 28
29 Exercise basics (5) The basic relationship Total Price = Extax Price + Excise Tax + [(ExtaxPrice+Excise Tax)*VAT Rate] When only Total Price is available, work backwards: (1) Extax Price = [Total Price / (1 + VAT%)] Excise Tax (2) VAT = [Total Price (Total Price / (1 + VAT%)] 29
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