IHS Global Insight s World Industry Service

Transcription

1 1. List of Countries Included in the WIS Forecast Database IHS Global Insight s World Industry Service Forecasts Covering 95 Industries in 75 Countries, each with 10 Indicators Guide to the World Industry Service (WIS) Forecast Database List of Countries, Industries and Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Summary The World Industry Service (WIS) assimilates and harmonizes historical data from the most reliable sources of sector information, converts these into globally consistent benchmarks of industry activity, and then forecasts them into the future using IHS Global Insight's forecast drivers and models. The globally harmonized data set covers the same 95 industries in each of 75 countries, all of which add up in total to each country's GDP. The indicators available for each industry in each country include sales, profits, costs, spending, all of which have the same definitions and interpretation in each country and industry. This document describes the data elements and benchmarks that are available in the World Industry Service package, by listing the countries, industries and indicators included within the WIS Forecast Database. 1. List of Countries Included in the WIS Forecast Database The WIS includes history and forecasts for industries in each of 75 countries, with data for each of the individual countries as well as for region composites such as Asia and World totals. The sum of the GDP from each of these 75 countries included in WIS accounts for over 96% of the World Total GDP. 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database The WIS uses the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) scheme (Revision 3), developed and reliably maintained by the United Nations, the OECD and others. The definitions of ISIC industries can be found on the URL link The ISIC is a standard method for classifying similar technologies, commodities and economic activities together into a system of 'peer groups" of sectors and industries. The data for these industry "peer group" classifications include all the publicly owned or traded companies, but also all the private, foreign owned as well as government owned companies. The WIS includes 95 detailed granular ISIC industries, which together add up to broad, composite sectors, and then ultimately sums up to the total GDP in each country. 3. List of Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Database The World Industry Service (WIS) provides for 95 industries in 75 countries a set of industry benchmarks and data metrics that include each industry's sales, production, costs, demand, trade, spending, and profits all of which are presented in a consistent manner across sectors, countries, and over time. Each of these indicators has a full set of history data, extending back to 1980, with forecasts extending out 20 years into the future. 4. Schedule of WIS Forecast Data Releases 5. Technical Appendix: Data Mnemonic Guide for the WIS Forecast Database 1

2 1. List of Countries Included in the WIS Forecast Database 75 Countries Included in the WIS Forecast Database Listing Includes IHS Global Insight s two-letter country/region codes; Also for reference the IMF three-digit country codes are included in parentheses to the right of each countries North America (NA) (Includes Mexico) Latin and Central America (LA) (Excludes Mexico) Canada (CA) (156) Argentina (AR) (213) Mexico (MX) (273) Bolivia (BO) (218) United States (US) (111) Brazil (BZ) (223) Chile (CL) (228) Western Europe (WE) Colombia (CO) (233) Austria (AU) (122) Costa Rica (CR) (238) Belgium (BE) (124) Ecuador (ED) (248) Denmark (DE) (128) Honduras (HO) (268) Finland (FN) (172) Jamaica (JM) (343) France (FR) (132) Panama (PA) (283) Germany (GF) (134) Peru (PE) (293) Greece (GR) (174) Uruguay (UR) (298) Ireland (IL) (178) Venezuela (VZ) (299) Italy (IT) (136) Netherlands (NE) (138) Asia/Pacific (AP) Norway (NO) (142) Australia (AT) (193) Portugal (PG) (182) Bangladesh (BS) (513) Spain (SP) (184) China (CH) (924) Sweden (SW) (144) Hong Kong (HK) (532) Switzerland (SZ) (146) India (ID) (534) Turkey (TK) (186) Indonesia (IN) (536) United Kingdom (UK) (112) Japan (JA) (158) Malaysia (MA) (548) European Monetary Union (EU) New Zealand (NZ) (196) Pakistan (PK) (564) Eastern Europe and CIS (EE) Philippines (PH) (566) Bulgaria (BU) (918) Singapore (SG) (576) Czech Republic (CZ) (935) South Korea (KO) (542) Hungary (HU) (944) Sri Lanka (SR) (524) Poland (PO) (964) Taiwan (TW) (528) Romania (RO) (968) Thailand (TH) (578) Russia (RU) (922) Vietnam (VT) (582) Slovak Republic (SK) (936) Ukraine (UE) (926) 2 Middle East (ME) Bahrain (BH) (419) Africa (AF) Egypt (EG) (469) Cameroon (CM) (622) Iran (IR) (429) Kenya (KY) (664) Israel (IS) (436) Morocco (MO) (686) Jordan (JO) (439) Nigeria (NG) (694) Kuwait (KU) (443) Senegal (SE) (722) Qatar (QA) (453) South Africa (SA) (199) Saudi Arabia (SI) (456) Tunisia (TU) (744) United Arab Emirates (EM) (466) Zimbabwe (ZI) (698) World Total (WW)

3 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database 95 ISIC Industries Included in the WIS Forecast Database 95 individual industries, with 160 in total including all sector composites and market definitions URL for UN ISIC Web Site: ISIC (International Standard Industry Classification) Revision 3 Mapping 0f NAICS Industry Codes into ISIC Rev.3 A_B 11 Agriculture C 21 Mining 10_12 211, 2121, Energy Mining Coal Mining Oil & Gas Mining Uranium Mining 3 Short Description of Industries: 13_ , 2123, 213 excl Mining of Metals & Quarry D 31-33, 5111, , , 5122, 562 Manufacturing Total , 3121 Food and Beverages 15O ( ) 311 Food Products Beverages Tobacco Products , 314 Textiles Wearing Apparel Leather & Footwear Wood Products (excl. Furniture) Paper & Pulp , 5111, 51211, 51212, ,5122 Printing & Publishing , 51211, 51212, 5122 Publishing , 51212, 5122 Publishing of Recorded Media 221O ( ) 5111 Other Publishing Printing & Related Services Reproduction of Recorded Media , Refined Petroleum & Nuclear Fuel , Coke Oven Products Refined Petroleum Products Nuclear Fuel Processing excl Chemicals

4 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database - continued excl , 32521, Basic Chemicals & Fertilizers excl Basic Industrial Chemicals Fertilizers Synthetic Resins , Specialty Chemicals Pesticides, Agro-Chemicals Paints & Varnishes Pharma: Drugs and Medicines Soap, Cleaning & Cosmetics Other Specialty Chemicals Synthetic Fibers Rubber & Plastics Rubber Products Plastic Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Glass & Products excl Non-metallic Minerals excl. Glass Ceramic Products (Non-Structural) 269C ( ) 3273, 3274 Cement, Concrete, Lime 269O ( ) 3279 Other Mineral Products Basic Metals 271 ( ) 3311, 3312, Iron & Steel 272 ( ) 3313, 3314, Non-Ferrous Metals Fabricated Metal Products , 3323, 3324 Structural Metal Products excl. 3321, 3323, 3324 Metal Coatings, Related Services excl. 3333, 3352 Machinery, Equipment, Appliances , 3339 General Industrial Machinery Engines & Turbines Lifting & Handling Equipment 291O ( ) Other General Industry Machinery , 3332, 3335 Special Industrial Machinery Agricultural Machinery 4

5 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database - continued , , , Machine Tools , , , Metallurgy Machinery & Casting , Machinery for Mining & Construction 292O ( ) 3332 excl Other Special Industrial Machinery , 3352 Domestic Appliances , 3346 Computers & Office Machinery excl Electrical Machinery , Electric Motors, Generators , Electricity Distribution & Control 31O ( ) 3351, 3359 Wire, Cables & Batteries Communication Equipment Total Semiconductors, Circuit Boards, LCDs Transmitters, Routers, Telephony Receivers, Players, Sound Systems , 3345 Medical, Precision & Optical Goods excl Medical & Measuring Equipment Optical & Photographic Equipment Watches & Clocks Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Parts 34O ( ) 3361, 3362 Motor Vehicles Parts for Motor Vehicles Other transport equipment Shipbuilding Railroads & Equipment Aircraft & Spacecraft Motorcycles, Bicycles, Transport. Equip , 339 Furniture & Other Manufacturing Furniture Jewelry, Toys, Musical, Sporting Goods Recycling E 22 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply , 2212 Electricity, Gas & Steam Water Supply 5

6 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database - continued - F 23 Construction G 42, 44, 45, 811 Wholesale & Retail Trade Wholesale Trade 50&52 44, 45, 811 Retail Trade , 447, 8111 Retail Trade Auto & Gasoline excl. 441 & 447, Retail Trade (excl. Auto) H 72 Hotels & Restaurants I 48, 49, 513 Transportation & Communication , Land Transport 601_ , 484, 485, 487, 488 Road & Rail Transport Pipeline Transport Water Transport Air Transport Supporting Transport Services , 492, 513 Communications Services , 492 Post & Courier Services Telecommunications J 52 Financial Intermediation Banking & Related Financial excl Insurance & Pensions , 525 Asset Management & Related K 53, 54, 55, 56 excl. 562 Real Estate & Business Services Real Estate excl. 531 Leasing of Machinery & Equipment , 514, 5415 Computing & Related Services Research & Development , , 5416, 5418, 5419, 55, 56 excl. 562 Business Services L_Q 92 Public Administration & Defense M 61 Education N 62 Health Care Services O 51213, , 71, 812, 813 Social & Personal Services , , 71 Recreational, Cultural & Sporting 90_93 excl , 813 Sanitation, Trade Organizations P 814 Private Household Services 6

7 2. List of Industries and Sectors Included in the WIS Forecast Database Label of Composite in Database NAICS Codes Sector Composites: Sum (A-Q) All Sectors Total Sumpx All Private Non-Ag. Sectors Gds (A-D) 11, 21, 31-33, 5111, 51211, 51212, , 5122, 562 All Goods Sectors Svs All Service Sectors Svsp (G-P, excl. L) All Private Service Sectors Dd (D20, D25-D36) 20, Manufacturing Durable Goods Dn (D20, D25-D36) excl. 20 Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods D17, D18, D Textiles & Apparel D24 excl. D excl & 3254 Chemicals Excluding Pharma. D242 excl. D , Specialty Chemicals D27-D Metals Manufacturing mtlmn (C13, C14, D27) 2122, 2123, 213, 331 Metals & Related Mining enrgy (C10, C11, C12, D23, E40, I603) 211, 2121, 324, , 2211, 2212, 486 Energy Complex olgs (C11, D232, I603) 211, 32411, 486 Oil & Gas Industry gdsht (D2423, D30, D32, D33, D353) 3254, 3333, 334, 3364 High Technology Goods svsht (I642, J65, J66, J67, K71, K72, K73, M, N) 52, 53, 5112, 514, 5415, 5417, 61, 62 High Technology Services gdsmt (D29, D31, D34, (D24 excl. D2423), D352, D359) 333 excl. 3333, 335, , 325 excl & 3254, 3365, 3369) Medium Technology Goods mdh (D2423, D331, N) 3254, 3345 excl , 62 Medical & Health Care ict (D30, D32, I642) , 3346, 513 Information & Communication Technology elec (D30-D33) 3333, 334, 335 excl Electrical Industries Eltr (D30, D32) 334 excl Computers & Communication Electronics trsv (I60-I63) 48, 493 Transportation Services Trlg (I60-I63, D351-D353) 48, 493, Transportation & Logistics bnkf (J, K71) 52, 53 excl. 531 Banking & Financial cnsm (D15, D16, D18, D19, D221, D2691, D323, D333, D36, G50, G52, H, M, N, O92, P) 311, 312, 315, 316, 3271, 3343, , 337, 339, 44, 45, 5111, 5121 excl , 5122, 61, 62, 71, 72, 811, 814 Consumer Industries torl (H, O92, D369) 339, 51213, , 71, 72 Tourism & Leisure 7

8 3. List of Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Database List of Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Database The industry data indicators that are in WIS fall into one of three categories: 1) The first set of industry indicators in the WIS forecast are those for which we have data available on a common basis for all sectors in all countries. WIS includes these indicators for each of 95 industries in the same manner for each of 75 countries. All the data indicators in this first set are measured in monetary terms namely in U.S. dollars and euros include historical data extending back to 1980, and are forecast 20 years into the future: Total Sales (Gross Output), Nominal and Real Operating Purchases of Inputs and Supplies (OpEx), Nominal and Real Value Added, Nominal and Real Current Operating Profits (Operating Surplus), Nominal and Real Fixed Capital Investment Spending (CapEx) Depreciation of Capital Equipment Industry Price Index for Output Prices 2) In addition, there is data for exports and imports. These trade-based indicators are only available for the goods sectors (agriculture, mining, and manufacturing). The data for sector exports and imports are available for the goods sectors in all countries, and are also measured in monetary terms namely in U.S. dollars and euros include historical data back to 1980, and are forecast 20 years into the future: Exports, Nominal and Real Imports, Nominal and Real Domestic Consumption (Apparent Consumption), Nominal and Real 3) An indicator for sector production, the Industry Production Index, is only available for select industries. It is available as reported the data availability for the industry production index for various countries and sectors is determined by what is reported by each of the countries' statistical agencies. Also, the amount of historical data that we include in WIS for this indicator is limited to what is available directly from the reporting statistical agency. The industry production index measures changes in the quantity of physical production over time; it does not measure the monetary value of industry output, only volumes. Further, the sectors we typically have production indexes for are mainly concentrated in the manufacturing and other goods sectors since there are very few countries, such as Japan, that publish production indexes for services sectors. Index of Production Definitions of the WIS Forecast Indicators 1) Total Sales: Also called gross output or total production, it is the total revenue that is earned by a sector s operating activities. It includes the domestic production that is exported abroad, but excludes imports that are produced abroad. Composition of Total Sales: The total sales earned by a sector can be broken out into individual components. On the input or cost side of the ledger, total sales must, by definition, be equal to the sum of A) the purchases of inputs and supplies and B) the value added. The portion of value added that represents operating profits is broken out as a separate component: 8

9 3. List of Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Database A) Industry Purchases of Supplies and Inputs: These purchases are commonly called interindustry purchases, or OpEx. They represent the purchases from other sectors of those items and services that are required (as "inputs") for ongoing production and sales operations. B) Value Added: This indicator represents what remains of total sales revenue after the purchases of inputs and supplies required for production are taken out. It literally represents the value added put in place by a particular sector. Conceptually, the sum of value added from all sectors in a country is one way to measure GDP. Value added may be further subdivided into payments to labor (wages and salaries), net indirect taxes, depreciation, rent, and operating surplus. B1) Current Operating Profits: Also called operating surplus, this component of value added is a measure of sector profitability from ongoing operations. Operating surplus excludes any one-time charges to net income, any extraordinary or non-recurring costs, or any changes in balance sheet valuations. Note that operating surplus can exhibit negative values. Also, the operating profit margin is calculated as the "operating surplus" in a sector divided by the "total sales" earned by the sector. B1.1) Net Operating Surplus: Current profits, net of depreciation. B1.2) Capital Consumption: Also called depreciation, measures the loss in value or deterioration of the fixed capital stock used directly in the production process. 2) Sources and Uses of Production: For those who purchase the output from an individual sector, there are the two potential sources of supply: domestic production and imported foreign production. For those who sell the output from a sector, there are two potential sources of demand: domestic consumption and exports abroad to satisfy foreign consumption. Therefore, there is a direct relationship, through the foreign trade accounts, between the amount of a sector s product that is purchased in a country and the amount of a sector s product that is produced in that same country: AC = GO + IM EX (Where AC = domestic consumption, GO = gross output, IM = imports, and EX = exports.) Domestic Consumption: Also called apparent consumption, this is the total amount of product from a sector that is consumed in a particular country, supplied either from domestic production (total sales) or via imports. Domestic consumption is derived as a residual (i.e., apparent) by subtracting exported domestic production from the sum of domestic production and imported foreign production. Data is available for all goods sectors and all countries. Exports and Imports: Measures international trade out of and into a country for any single industry. When added together for a particular country, the exports or imports for all industry sectors represent the total exports or imports as commonly published in NIPA and BOP accounts. The IHS Global Insight World Trade Service provides these data for all tradable goods sectors in all countries. 3) Domestic Production Price: The selling price of domestic production, also called the gross output price, is measured as an index with a 2005 base year value of 100. These price indexes are denominated in U.S. dollar currency, meaning that all prices have been converted into U.S. dollar terms. However, all of the price indexes can be converted to any other currency terms by using the appropriate exchange rate. For each price series, the year-to-year growth rate represents the percent change in the output price charged to those who purchase a sector s output. Also, these price indexes are used to convert the aforementioned indicators from a nominal or current U.S. dollar measure into a real or constant 2005 U.S. dollar measure. 4) Industrial Production: Physical production or quantity, measured as an index. It does not measure the value of production, but the change in quantities over time. The WIS uses a common base year of 2005 for all the sector production indices. The industrial production (IP) index is theoretically equivalent to constant value total sales (real gross output). However, the actual methods used to measure and d 9

10 3. List of Indicators Included in the WIS Forecast Database weight together the various products into a single aggregate sector level are very different from country to country, so the data results for the production index has to be interpreted a bit differently than the value-based indicators for sales or demand. Macro-Economic Forecast Drivers The WIS forecast data set also contains a host of macroeconomic data and projections. IHS Global Insight s staff of country analysts provides these data and forecasts, which include: Gross domestic product and the major expenditure based components, including private consumption, public consumption, fixed investment and total imports and exports of goods and services. All concepts are available in current and constant value terms, both in U.S. dollars and the appropriate local currency. The exchange rate is presented in terms of local currency per U.S. dollar for each country. Also, a single exchange rate for the euro is included. The Industrial Production Index typically measures the physical output that is produced by the domestic manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. For some countries, the industrial production index can also include activity in the construction sector. Population is measured in millions of persons and is forecasted to be in line with the latest United Nations projections. Local currency based price deflators to complement GDP and components. 10

11 4. Schedule of WIS Forecast Data Releases Schedule of Release of WIS Forecast World Industry Service (WIS) Forecast First Quarter Mid-January Second Quarter Mid-April Third Quarter Mid-July Fourth Quarter Mid-October World Industry Service (WIS) Sector Risk Ratings First Quarter End of January Second Quarter End of April Third Quarter End of July Fourth Quarter End of October World Industry Service High-Frequency Recent Indicators of Sector Activity are released twice a month, at the beginning of the month and after the U.S. release of industrial production. Release dates indicate updates on MyInsight; register to receive notification via Alert. 11

12 5. Technical Appendix: Data Mnemonic Guide for the WIS Forecast Database Mnemonic Structure for WIS Forecast Database World Industry Service Forecast Data Mnemonics follows a Generic Format: CCIISS_MM --- Where: CC = Country Prefix (e.g. US for United States), II = Concept Identifier (e.g. GO for gross output or total sales), SS = Industry Sector Code (e.g. 15 for Food and Beverages) _MM = Currency (or Measure) Denomination Suffix (e.g. _RD for 2005 US dollars) Country Prefix The Country Prefix is a two-letter code that identifies the country or region to which the data refers. Examples include US for the United States and FR for France. Refer to the section "List of Countries Included in the WIS Forecast Database" (pg.2) for a complete list of covered country and regional codes. Concept Identifiers The Concept Identifiers are based on the concept about the industry that is represented by the data. Currently these identifies include: GO Gross Output (Total Production or Total Sales) VA Value Added (Industry Revenues after Costs) OSG Gross Operating Surplus (Gross Operating Profits) ID Industry Purchases of Supplies and Inputs CFC Depreciation (Capital Consumption) GFC Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Cap Ex) OS Net Operating Surplus (OS = OSG CFC) AC Domestic Consumption (Apparent Consumption) EX Exports IM Imports PGO Domestic Production Price (Gross Output Price) Industry Sector Codes The Industry Sector Codes represent the various market sectors of each economy. The codes follow the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), revision 3 coding scheme. 12

13 5. Technical Appendix: Data Mnemonic Guide for the WIS Forecast Database Currency (or Measure) Denomination Suffix The Currency (or Measure) Denomination Suffix indicates the units that are being used to measure the concept. This suffix is always preceded by an under bar _. When the concept being measured is measured in current U.S. Dollars, the suffix is ND. When the concept being measured is measured in constant 2005 U.S. Dollars, the suffix is RD. Note that the Domestic Price index for output utilizes only the _RD suffix. Some Sample Mnemonics: USGO15_ND == Value of Total Sales (Gross Output), from sector D15 (Food & Beverages), in the United States, in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars USGO15_RD == Value of Total Sales (Gross Output), from sector D15 (Food & Beverages), in the United States, in Millions of Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars FRGO15_RD == Value of Total Sales (Gross Output), from sector D15 (Food and Beverages) in France, in Millions of Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars FRGO30_RD == Value of Total Sales (Gross Output), from sector D30 (Computers and Office Machinery), in France, Millions of Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars FREX31_ND == Value of Exports, Shipped from France, out of sector D15 (Food & Beverages), measured in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars FRIM15_ND == Value of Imports, Imported into France, of sector D15 (Food & Beverages) products, measured in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars UKVAG_ND == Value Added in Sector G (Wholesale & Retail Trade) in the United Kingdom, in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars JAID340_RD == Inter-industry Purchases of Supplies & Inputs, by Japan sector D340 (Motor Vehicles), measured in Millions of Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars ITAC19_ND == Domestic Consumption (Apparent Consumption), of sector D19 (Leather and Footwear) in Italy, measured in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars GFOSGF_ND == CAPGO20_RD == Gross Operating Surplus (Profit), for Germany sector F (Construction), measured in Millions of Current U.S. Dollars Domestic Production Price (Gross Output Price), for Canada sector D20 (Wood Products (excl. Furniture)), Indexed Based on Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars 13