MRF Limited BUY. V.S.R. Sastry Vice President Equity Research Desk
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1 MRF Limited BUY CMP: Rs Date: January 22 nd, 2010 Key Ratios: Particulars FY08 (12 m) FY09E (12 m) FY10E (12 m) OPM (%) NPM (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/BV(x) P/E(x) EV/EBDITA(x) Debt-Equity ratio Key Data: Sector Auto Tyres Face Value Rs wk. High/Low Rs / Volume (2 wk. Avg.) BSE Code V.S.R. Sastry Vice President Equity Research Desk vsrsastry@firstcallindiaequity.com Target Price: Rs Market Cap. : Rs mn. SYNOPSIS MRF is India`s largest tyre manufacturer, having a 22% market share. The company derives over 95% of its revenues from its core business i.e. tyres, the rest comes from its presence in toys and paints. This focus on tyres has enabled it to constantly increase capacities, and maintain market leadership and profitability in most segments. MRF exports its products to over 75 countries. The company has already declared and paid two interim dividends of Rs 3 each per share for the year, thus aggregating to a total dividend of Rs 25 per share for FY09. Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned a AA+ rating to the Long-term Bank Facilities of MRF (MRF). This rating is applicable for facilities having tenure of over one year. The company signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with government of Tamil Nadu for the new MRF plant to be located at Perambulur, Trichy and also for expansion of its existing plants in Tamil Nadu. This will be MRF`s third plant to be established in Tamil Nadu. MRF will invest Rs 1.25 billion in production facility of the tyres the product is produced after three years of in house research. The production will start at its Medak facility in Andhra Pradesh. The company s Net sales and PAT are expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 32% over FY08 to FY11E. Share Holding Pattern: Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D. Chief Research Officer drsastry@firstcallindia.com 1
2 Table of Content Content Page No. 1. Investment Highlights Peer Group Comparison Key Concerns Financials Charts & Graph Outlook and Conclusion Industry Overview 13 2
3 Investment Highlights Result Updates (Q4FY09) For the fourth quarter, the top line of the company increased 5%YoY and stood at Rs mn against Rs mn of the same period of the last year. The bottom line of the company for the quarter stood at Rs mn from Rs mn of the corresponding period of the previous year i.e., an increase of 2176%YoY. EPS of the company for the quarter stood at Rs for equity share of Rs each. 3
4 Expenditure for the quarter stood at Rs mn, which is around 10% lower than the corresponding period of the previous year. Interest expenses of the company for the quarter stood at Rs m from Rs mn of the corresponding period of the previous year i.e., a decrease of 29%YoY. Depreciation increased 55%YoY to Rs mn from Rs mn for the quarter. OPM and NPM for the quarter stood at 17% and 7% respectively from 4% and 0% respectively of the same period of the last year. FY09 Performance in line with expectation The company s Top line has increased 12% to Rs mn from Rs mn of FY08. Bottom line for the year increased 75% to Rs mn from Rs mn of FY08 These numbers are in line with our expectation. Earnings per share of the company for the year stood at Rs per share. Expenditure of the company for the year stood at Rs mn, which is around 7% higher than FY08. Raw material cost for the year stood at Rs mn from Rs mn of FY08 i.e. a decrease of 1%YoY. Employee cost increased 15%YoY to Rs mn. Interest expenditure increased 4%YoY to Rs mn and depreciation increased 47%YoY to Rs mn. 4
5 Recommended a final dividend The board of directors of the company has recommended a final dividend of Rs 19 per share on the paid-up capital as at September 30, The company has already declared and paid two interim dividends of Rs 3 each per share for the above year, thus aggregating to a total dividend of Rs 25 per share for the year. Care assigns `AA+` & `PR+` ratings to MRF Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned a AA+ rating to the Long-term Bank Facilities of MRF (MRF). This rating is applicable for facilities having tenure of over one year. Facilities with this rating are considered to offer high safety for timely servicing of debt obligations and with this rating would have strong capacity for timely payment of shortterm debt obligations and carry lowest credit risk. Also, CARE has assigned PR1+ rating to the Short-term Bank Facilities of the company. The above ratings are assigned for an aggregate amount of Rs 8,450 million. CARE assigns `+` or `-` signs after the assigned rating (wherever necessary) to indicate the relative position within the band covered by the rating symbol. Facility Amount (Rs million) Rating Fund Based facilities 5600 AA+ Non-Fund based facilities 2850 PR1+ Total
6 CARE has also assigned a PR1+ rating to the Rs.2 billion Commercial Paper Programme of MRF. Instruments with this rating would have strong capacity for timely payment of shortterm debt obligations and carry lowest credit risk. The CP issue would have a maximum maturity of 364 days and would be carved out of the working capital limits of the company. Rating Rationale The ratings factor in the long operational track record of the company, its market leadership position in the Indian Tyre industry with diverse product offerings, strong brand image and wide distribution network, healthy growth in income and strong cash accruals in the past and comfortable liquidity position. The ratings are constrained by the low profitability margins, volatility in raw material prices which led to losses in Sep`08 and Dec`08 quarters, not so favorable industry scenario consequent to the slowdown in economic growth and the intensely competitive nature of the industry. Signing of MOU The company signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with government of Tamil Nadu for the new MRF plant to be located at Perambulur, Trichy and also for expansion of its existing plants in Tamil Nadu. This will be MRF`s third plant to be established in Tamil Nadu. The other factories in Tamil Nadu are located at Tiruvottiyur and Arakonam. MRF is acquiring nearly 290 acres of land for its new facility in Perambulur. MRF to foray into aviation tyres The company has announced entry in production of aviation tyres. The company will invest Rs 1.25 billion in production facility of the tyres the product is produced after three years of in house research. The production will start at its Medak facility in Andhra Pradesh. The company has announced its foray into the aviation tyre space with the unveiling of Aero Muscle, a product born out of in-house research and perfected over the last three years. The tyres were subjected to ground and flight trials. Upon completion of these, MRF had been given provisional certificate for the commercial production of the approved prototype aviation tyre. Tyres were approved for Chetak helicopters the Centre for Military Airworthiness Certification and the Regional Centre for Military Airworthiness. The company will also try to sell the tyres to private aviation company. This step according to the company will help India by achieving self-sufficiency in such an import-substitute product is always good for the country. 6
7 Peer Group Comparison Name of the company CMP(Rs.) (As on January 22 nd, 2010) Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) EPS (Rs.) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend (%) MRF Apollo Tyres ltd Goodyear India Balakrishna industries Key Concerns Recession in global economy Fluctuations in exchange rates High competition from global players Adverse Govt. policies 7
8 Financials Results Update 12 months ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone): Value(Rs in million) FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Net Profit Equity Capital Reserves Face Value Total No. of Shares EPS Year ending September. 8
9 Quarterly ended Profit and Loss A/C (Standalone): Value(Rs. in million) 31-Mar Jun Sep Dec-09E Description 3m 3m 3m 3m Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Net Profit Equity Capital Face Value Total No. of Shares EPS
10 Charts Net sales & PAT P/E Ratio (x) 10
11 P/BV (X) EV/EBITDA(X) 11
12 1 Year Comparative Graph MRF LTD BSE SENSEX Outlook and Conclusion At the market price of Rs , the stock is trading at 8.49 x and 7.72 x for FY10E and FY11E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBDITA, the stock trades at 3.42 x for FY10E and 3.38 x for FY11E. Price to book value of the company is expected to be at 1.54 x for FY10E and 1.28 x for FY11E respectively. EPS of the company is expected to be at Rs and Rs for the earnings of FY10E and FY11E respectively. The company had a good network of internal resources to finance the company s operations, expansion plans as well as capital investments. Credit rating agency, CARE has assigned a AA+ rating to the Long-term Bank Facilities of MRF (MRF). This rating is applicable for facilities having tenure of over one year. The company signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with government of Tamil Nadu for the new MRF plant to be located at Perambulur, Trichy and also for expansion of its existing plants in Tamil Nadu. 12
13 MRF will invest Rs 1.25 billion in production facility of the tyres the product is produced after three years of in house research. The production will start at its Medak facility in Andhra Pradesh. We recommend BUY with a target price of Rs for long term. Industry Overview Demand for tyres is derived from demand for automobiles. Therefore it is a derived demand product and its fortunes are very closely linked to those of the auto segment. Within the tyre industry the trucks and buses (T&B) segment accounts for more than 70% of sales. Though scooters and motorcycle tyre demand also plays a vital role, in value terms, CVs gain significance. Tyre varieties can be divided into two categories cross ply and radial. The domestic industry is dominated by cross-ply tyres, due to the poor conditions of roads in the country and overloading of CVs. This is also the reason why penetration of radial tyres in the CV segment is negligible and finds presence only in the passenger car segment. On the other hand, radial tyres dominate western markets. Radial tyres can be differentiated on the type of belt used fiberglass, steel and nylon. Worldwide, steel belted radials are more popular due to their performance advantage. There are three major consumer segments for tyres namely replacement segment, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and exports. Though fortunes of the sector are closely tied with the automobile industry, replacement demand continues to remain the key growth driver. Replacement demand accounts for as high as 57% of industry volumes. However, the contribution from OEM and replacement segments varies across subsegments in the auto sector. For instance, for the passenger car segment, demand is balanced from replacement and OEM categories i.e. 50:50. 13
14 Another key transition that is taking place in the industry is the entry of multinationals like Good Year, Bridgestone and Michelin in the domestic market. MNC tyre makers have cornered a higher market share in India in the last three years due to their international relationships apart from superior technology. Since Honda, Hyundai and Toyota have an international sourcing agreement with Bridgestone; it is also the preferred supplier in India. Goodyear is believed to be the preferred supplier for Ford India. An extensive distribution network and strong brand recall are factors critical to tyre sales. Brand building is given a lot of importance by manufacturers, who allot 2-3% of sales to advertising. With the introduction of radial tyres, even technology has assumed significance. All foreign cars introduced in the country are on radial tyres. Raw materials constitute 60%-70% of production cost of tyres. Natural rubber and Nylon cord fabrics are the most critical raw materials as it accounts for 50% of total raw material cost. Since most of the raw materials are crude derivatives, a rise in prices has a negative impact on margins. The export market holds tremendous potential for domestic manufacturers. Tyre exports have grown at an annual compounded rate of 27% over the past 10 years. Indian tyres are exported to 56 countries, which are primarily developing countries. Disclaimer: This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it s affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. 14
15 Firstcall India Equity Research: B. Harikrishna Banking B. Prathap IT A. Rajesh Babu FMCG C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods E. Swethalatha Oil & Gas D. Ashakirankumar Automobile Rachna Twari Diversified Kavita Singh Diversified Nimesh Gada Priya Shetty Tarang Pawar Neelam Dubey Diversified Diversified Diversified Diversified Firstcall India also provides Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt.Ltd focuses on, IPO s, QIP s, F.P.O s, Takeover Offers, Offer for Sale and Buy Back Offerings. Corporate Finance Offerings include Foreign Currency Loan Syndications, Placement of Equity / Debt with multilateral organizations, Short Term Funds Management Debt & Equity, Working Capital Limits, Equity & Debt Syndications and Structured Deals. Corporate Advisory Offerings include Mergers & Acquisitions (domestic and cross-border), divestitures, spin-offs, valuation of business, corporate Restructuring-Capital and Debt, Turnkey Corporate Revival Planning & Execution, Project Financing, Venture capital, Private Equity and Financial Joint Ventures Firstcall India also provides Financial Advisory services with respect to raising of capital through FCCBs, GDRs, ADRs and listing of the same on International Stock Exchanges namely AIMs, Luxembourg, Singapore Stock Exchanges and other international stock exchanges. For Further Details Contact: 3rd Floor, Sankalp, The Bureau, Dr.R.C.Marg, Chembur, Mumbai Tel.: / / Telefax: info@firstcallindiaequity.com 15
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